Does anybody thinks that if the Dems didn't nominated Biden and went for a more progressive and left leaning candidate, they wouldn't be able to flip the swing states and lost the election?
With how much people still voting for Trump, I can't help feeling that someone like Bernie will turn off voters who's on the fence and either won't vote or vote for Trump
1. Bernie vs Trump was polling ~1 point worse than Biden vs Trump when they were both in the race. Other candidates were ~1-2 points further behind.
2. Biden got a polling and voter registration bump from Covid/BLM in May that he carried for the rest of the election, I think that would have been true for all candidates.
3. I haven't looked properly at the exit polls but if Biden did win more suburban voters or white voters fo medium/high income, those were gains Bernie would have struggled to make (other candidates like Pete or Warren could have made them). The gains with white without degree or low income Bernie could have made (other candidates could not IMO).
4. Bernie would have done better with Latinos in all states not named Florida, would have lost Florida much harder.
5. Unlike Biden, he would have run a field operation and door-to-door canvassing.
Overall, I don't know how to quantify if Bernie's gains among Latino voters and gains via door-to-door woud have offset losses among suburbanites and middle-higher income voters.The other aspect is the role of the media, which was uncritical of Biden, partly because of his strategy of not running much of a campaign. There would have been a LOT more negative press from CNN, NYT, etc against Sanders. So overall I think a percent or two lower, which could make the difference depending on which states it came from.
I think other candidates had some of the weaknesses of Biden (no field op) without his strength (ability to not campaign, safe old white male) and would have done worse. In terms of electability, based on polling going back to 2019, Biden and Bernie were the only 2 options.
