2018 US Elections
- Thread starter Red Dreams
- Start date
Do you have a link to this?
Add to that that more and more students of @Carolina Red will become of age and hit the ballots in the upcoming years, so I expect a surge of socialists coming through
Yeah. It's just this NYT page and me crunching numbers in Excel.
If you look the largest areas with the most yet to report are Missoula, Gallatin and Glacier - areas that lean Dem by a significantly larger margin than the much smaller areas yet to report that lean Rep.
Edit: You can click "show all counties" on the right under the map to see a breakdown of what's left.
Glacier is a tiny population though. I'd be worried about the outstanding votes in Yellowstone and Flathead.
The Margin of the House win is very good.
every candidate I voted for in Minnesota won. State Legislature. Dems have the Governorship and the House. Senate is one short.
Good times.
every candidate I voted for in Minnesota won. State Legislature. Dems have the Governorship and the House. Senate is one short.
Good times.
Kevin Costner probably voted for Trump mate
So if Dems take Montana, it is going to be 54-46 right? Or is there anyone I am missing (Misssiiiissssiiiipppppiiii not counting cause Reps will easily win the second round).
Shush! Encourage it
Fox always have been an extreme left wing fake media. Boycott it!
Yeah, but if you look at Yellowstone it's 83% in and currently only leans R by 3%. If you run the numbers out that margin'll only net Rosendale about 400 more votes than Tester from what's left.
If you look at Glacier it's smaller but only has 25% in and currently leans D by 56%. Run those numbers out and it'll net Tester about 2,500 more than Rosendale.
It's a similar tale for Flathead when you compare it to a bigger county like Missoula. When I ran the figures when it was 82% (a bit ago now) Flathead nets Rosendale about 1400, Missoula nets Tester over 12k. In fact Lewis and Clark more than covers Flathead on its own.
Obviously this only works if the current margins remain the same in all of the counties, so there's a fair bit of doubt about that but going off the numbers available it seems pretty hopeful for Tester.
With less than 1% yet to be count, she is trailing with 15k votes, so she's lost (unless there is a recount which will find errors during original counting).
Could be 53-47. AZ Sen not done counting with a lot of early and absentee votes still to be counted.
Don’t quote me on this.
And over 38k voted Green. I hate these people. It's just a wasted vote. You know it's going to come down to two choices. Make your vote matter.
Ok you've convinced me but if he loses now it's all your fault
Only 75% of the votes are in. And the county to come in favours her.
Also Tester will win I think. The three areas where there are outstanding votes are heavily Democrat.
I accept full responsibility.
Shush! Encourage it
Bloody hell, if they try and move any further to the right you won't be able to see the anchor's faces behind the hoods.
Let's hope so. 53-47 is not bad. It is just slightly worse than the predicted 52-48.
Look, whilst I support Hillary's position (mainly foreign policy), I'm not advocating her as a candidate in 2020. I don't think she'll do it again unless there's clear evidence that 2016 was stolen from her.
I'm not sure if a progressive has a better chance than a centrist. Based on the results last night, whilst Beto & Gillum got very close, they couldn't pull it off.
I'm not saying that the blue wall is back or the Dems have it in the bag in 2020. Just that I don't agree with the notion that Trump is looking strong in OH/FL if somehow the Dems are not looking strong in PA/MI/WI given the results last night.
It appears Trump has bigger problems in those 3 states than the Dems have in FL.
Lots of Dems are disappointed about Florida, but Dems had a very good night.
And did I hear the idiot say 'two can play the game?' when the Investigations were mentioned?
numb skull still does not understand how government works.
And did I hear the idiot say 'two can play the game?' when the Investigations were mentioned?
numb skull still does not understand how government works.
Nelson's goes to a recount. But I don't think he can turn it around.
the dynamics don't change much.
where is santi_mesut_ozil_alexis right now? I could really use his insight on this.
Max Headroom.
“He is saying that because he supports facism”.
I agree.Lots of Dems are disappointed about Florida, but Dems had a very good night.
And did I hear the idiot say 'two can play the game?' when the Investigations were mentioned?
numb skull still does not understand how government works.
Florida's results came early in the evening and they affected the mood and the narrative for the rest of the evening. In a way, they overshadowed big gains for democrats in the House, governor seats and local positions. Democrats had a goal before Tuesday-- winning the House! They did that with relative ease (the House won't be 218-217) and yet they feel disappointed. That's just stupid. For the first time in two years, we have a check on this presidency, Republicans won't be able to pass extreme laws at least until 2020 and no attempt to repeal the 14th will be initiated before 2020. This is huge.
Obviously, I was hoping to have better results in senate races, but it was always going to be an uphill battle in deep red states.
Importantly Dems have the governorship in WI, PA and MI. States Trump won.
Bernie will win those
And democrats had gains even in Kansas, two muslim women from the midwest will go to Congress, Brown kept his seat in Ohio, etc. These are good results in the midwest.Importantly Dems have the governorship in WI, PA and MI. States Trump won.
Bernie will win those
Let me also add that North Carolina looks in play more and more, and that Nevada and Colorado are becoming reliable blue states. These are fantastic news that will matter in the long run.
Honestly, with the exception of FL, republicans performed badly in non red states.
The founding fathers suck and so does the constitution
True.
With the changing demographics and an honest candidate, Democrats will take full control in 2 years.
i just want to commend him for sticking to the 140 character limit on here.
"Half the Senate is represented by 16% of the population."
But but Cali and New York.
the constitution is so dumb that my state has more senators than representatives
Technically speaking there aren’t enough people in your state to merit 1 representative.
Florida is also full of racists and hardcore Republicans. The rural areas are basically off limits to black people.
I think the lesson from last night for 2020 is that there's only 1 path open to the Dems - the midwest.
Texas is obviously out of play. It always has been and (always?) will be.
Florida is out of reach - neither the moderate white man nor the progressive black man (nor the moderate white woman and right-wing white man of 2016) got through. Arizona is out of play given how wide the governors' margin was.
Ohio is bad. Clinton was washed out. The governor lost today. Sherrod Brown, despite being solidly progressive on most issues, has a lock on the state, but it seems personal rather than policy-based.
It leaves Michigan, Penn, and Wisconsin. All three are doable but difficult. I think they are the only path to victory, and based on conventional knowledge, it will have to be Biden or Bernie that can do it. They need unions mobilised.
At the same time, defend the narrow Clinton wins of New Mexico, NH, Nevada, and Virginia.
I think this map is about as difficult for Dems in 2020 as it was for Trump in 2016.
Texas is obviously out of play. It always has been and (always?) will be.
Florida is out of reach - neither the moderate white man nor the progressive black man (nor the moderate white woman and right-wing white man of 2016) got through. Arizona is out of play given how wide the governors' margin was.
Ohio is bad. Clinton was washed out. The governor lost today. Sherrod Brown, despite being solidly progressive on most issues, has a lock on the state, but it seems personal rather than policy-based.
It leaves Michigan, Penn, and Wisconsin. All three are doable but difficult. I think they are the only path to victory, and based on conventional knowledge, it will have to be Biden or Bernie that can do it. They need unions mobilised.
At the same time, defend the narrow Clinton wins of New Mexico, NH, Nevada, and Virginia.
I think this map is about as difficult for Dems in 2020 as it was for Trump in 2016.
Bullshit, he's the Governor not the emperor. The state legislature have a good check on Hogan and the vast majority of this state are content with our politics. We have Republicans that tow the current party line and some that just talk shit. That is what they are about right now but it was the same when Martin O'Malley was Governor, he was hated by Republicans and Democrats alike. You have to pick your battles and right now taking to the streets because Hogan got re elected is not one of them. You more then most on here fail to understand that. I along with most people in this state feel we are alright right now with our state politics, we are lucky compared to other places with Republican governorship, like you're state. I can understand where you're hatred comes from by the way Michigan has been treated. That state is a national treasure when you think of its history over the last 80 years.
I think where we can all agree right now is that Pelosi needs to be challenged. I suggested Schiff but right now he is needed where he us. I would be interested in you're thoughts on who should take the gavel.
I'm going to be irritating here. Yeah the Senate is completely undemocratic and yeah the Dem's get by far the worst of it but this 9m more Dem voters thing is a bit of a red herring.
Dems has 26 seats up, Republicans had 9. Dems won 22/3/or 4 seats, Republicans won 13/12 or 11. They had 9m more of the vote but won around 2/3 of the seats.
Dems has 26 seats up, Republicans had 9. Dems won 22/3/or 4 seats, Republicans won 13/12 or 11. They had 9m more of the vote but won around 2/3 of the seats.