2018 US Elections

InfiniteBoredom said:
2010: GOP+7.2, 63 House pickups, 6 Senate pickups
2018: Dems + 9.2, expected 34 House pickups, 3 Senate losses.

Draw your own conclusions.
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They're really only expected to pickup 34 with a 9.2 margin? Insane.
 
Suedesi said:
I'm just calling it as I see it Shqipe, I have absolutely no attachment to either party, and I'm largely dispassionate about politics.

Fact of the matter is Trump has had a pretty unfavorable coverage in 90% of the media (completely deserved) , then you had the right wing terrorism incidents with the bombs and the Pittsburg shooting and all these stories how voting turnout was great so you'd think the Dems had all the momentum in the world, and they still fecked it up. Trump campaigned pretty hard for GOP Senators and he was able to hold court.

Draw your own conclusions.
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Oh yeah, the classical "I am not a Trump supporter, I am just delighted that he won, and so I am posting a map which anyone who has a basic understanding of US politics knows is bullshit, and claiming that this was a big victory for him despite that Republicans in national level lost by 7 to 10 points in both house and senate". Carry on.
 
Suedesi said:
Actually, this is a pretty good result for Trump. His position in the GOP is cemented, and Republicans picked up 4 seats in Senate. Blue wave turned out to be a puddle. Compare 2018 results with say 2010 (2 years after Obama's first election) - when the Democrats got annihilated at the congressional, state and local level - and you'll see that Republicans (aka Trump) did pretty well, which bodes well for his re-election in 2020.
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Don't agree at all, and while he'll spin as he always does, there are some very positive fundamentals for Dems:
1. Assuming Walker loses (which looks likely right now) the Dems will have flipped the 3 states that gave Donnie the electoral college by a whisker
2. A massive swing in the female vote, even white-female
3. Extremely high turnout (generally when turnout is high Dems win)
4. Florida is reinstating the right for felons that have served that time to vote (like any f*cking 21st country should), that's about 1.4m more voters next time. And guess which way the vast majority will lean?

And of course, not only will Devin Nunes no longer be able to abuse his office to obfuscate, he and Donnie will likely be facing investigations, using the subpoena power the GOP granted the house.

And Mueller might drop this week.

So no, I do not believe Trump had a good night.
 
Revan said:
Something like that. They needed around a +6% win in order to actually win the house. Which is insane.
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I'm not sure on the number yet, but won't like 2/3rds of Americans be governed by Dems now too?

The system is so GOP-leaning it's amazing the Dems ever get close to winning.
 
Beachryan said:
I'm not sure on the number yet, but won't like 2/3rds of Americans be governed by Dems now too?

The system is so GOP-leaning it's amazing the Dems ever get close to winning.
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Don't think so. I guess that house and senate is more around 55-60%, no idea about gubernatorial races, but doubt it considering that Reps control some big states like Texas and Florida.
 
Revan said:
5.5% was 538 prediction, but considering that in every poll they have been optimistic, I think it is safe to argue that Dems needed a bigger than 5.5% victory to take control of the house.
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Larry Sabato of Crystal Ball from UVA agreed on the number, I don’t remember Sam Wang’s.

I did have the feeling watching the results tonight that it might’ve ended very differently had the Dem won by 2-3 pts less. A bunch of toss ups were especially close.
 
langster said:
I think it's more like we want know what time we have to reset the doomsday clock to seeing as the USA has an annoyingly and ridiculously massive say in the future of the world.
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So much doom and gloom. So far, little hands has been pretty restrained on foreign policy and projecting power abroad. He hasn't really bombed/drone attacked as much as the Nobel Peace prize winner, somehow defused tensions with North Korea for the time, seems to have done away with ISIS, basically kept NAFTA with some small modifications. Withdrawal from Paris Accords has been awful, I'll give you that. But given that the last Rep Prez sought to rearrange the middle east, got us to spend 7 trillion US and causing the death of several thousand people, I'd say Donald has been pretty good so far*.

*Please hombre, don't fecking bomb Iran!
 
Adisa said:
On another note what does any of this mean for 2020?
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From the Republican side, apparently since Hoover in 1932, only H.W. Bush has lost a re-election bid. Democrats will need to nail their choice of candidate for 2020.

As for the Senate, from what I've read, the Dems need Montana or Arizona in this election to have a chance for 2020. Someone with any knowledge of US Politics will know more than me on that matter though.


Tennessee passed a similar amendment in 2014, but Alabama’s goes further because it does not include language outlining exceptions for incest, rape or the life of the mother.
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Sounds like it won't be long before Roe v Wade is challenged.
 
Suedesi said:
So much doom and gloom. So far, little hands has been pretty restrained on foreign policy and projecting power abroad. He hasn't really bombed/drone attacked as much as the Nobel Peace prize winner, somehow defused tensions with North Korea for the time, seems to have done away with ISIS, basically kept NAFTA with some small modifications. Withdrawal from Paris Accords has been awful, I'll give you that. But given that the last Rep Prez sought to rearrange the middle east, got us to spend 7 trillion US and causing the death of several thousand people, I'd say Donald has been pretty good so far*.

*Please hombre, don't fecking bomb Iran!
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Global warming is arguably the biggest existential threat in the history of mankind, and Trump (like virtually all Republicans) has awful policies about it.

Even if everything else is perfect, unless you're 70+ years old and have no interest about the future of mankind after you die, should be enough to never vote Republicans.
 
Damien said:
From the Republican side, apparently since Hoover in 1932, only H.W. Bush has lost a re-election bid. Democrats will need to nail their choice of candidate for 2020.

As for the Senate, from what I've read, the Dems need Montana or Arizona in this election to have a chance for 2020. Someone with any knowledge of US Politics will know more than me on that matter though.




Sounds like it won't be long before Roe v Wade is challenged.
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True. I think that chances for a Democratic senate in 2020 are quite small (unless something big happens, like Trump getting impeached). So, I think that in 2020 the congress will continue being split, while who knows for the presidency, but yesterday results were quite encouraging for Democrats (yes, 2010 results were encouraging for Republicans and Romney still lost, but then Obama was a very popular president, while Trump isn't).

Considering America's weird habit, I guess Dems win the presidency and keep the house in 2020, and then when they finally flip the senate 2 years later, they lose the house. It isn't very often there when a party controls everything, and usually, it is only those years where a lot of stuff can be done. Obama was too stupid to try to work with Republicans in the first 2 years instead of setting his own agenda without caring what Republicans want and payed for it. Trump did better in that aspect and did a lot (of awful things) during these two years, though couldn't repeal Obamacare.

Roe vs Wade is extremely non effective in red states anyway, so even if it is repealed and the decision goes to states, it won't change much.
 
Beto O'Rourke's concession transcript

El Paso has produced some really great teams over the years. I am very lucky I got to be part of one that came out of this community. For the last 22 months, I have been traveling every county in Texas. I have been there to listen to and show up for every one of us. I was inspired and I am as hopeful as I have ever been in my life. Tonight’s loss does nothing to diminish the way I feel about Texas or this country.

Getting to see all of you tonight and be with you reminds me why we set out to do this in the first place. We’re not about being against anybody. We’re not going to define ourselves by who or what we’re scared of. We are great people. Ambitious. Defined by our aspirations and the hard work we are willing to commit in order to achieve them. Every single one of us from a big city to a small town, the people of Texas will do the great work of the country.

I have now had the opportunity to talk with Sen. Cruz and congratulate him on his victory and wish him well going forward. What I pledged on behalf of all of us is that in this time of division, with the country as polarized as I can remember it in my life, all of this bitterness, if there is anything we can do to help him in his position of public trust to ensure that Texas helps lead the country in a way that brings us back together around big things we want to achieve, whether that is making sure we face any threat against this country or that we are there for every single person who needs a helping hand so we can let your full potential, the ability to see a doctor and receive medication you need, I want to work with him.

I will work with anyone to make sure we lead on that. You amazing public school educators who work so hard and do so much for so many of us, I will work with him or with anyone, anytime, anywhere, to make sure that the same way you have been there for us, we will be there for you. Not as Republicans or Democrats, but as Texans and Americans. I want to make sure that this community that raised me and made me who I am, where Amy and I are fortunate enough to be raising our kids who are here with us tonight, that we offer our experience, perspective, courage on the issues we know best. We will form something powerful, magical.

I have nothing to apologize for. I want to make sure that this proud community offers, has to give to our country and to ensure our best days are still ahead and the policies and laws we craft and the way we treat each other comes not out of fear, but out of confidence and strength in the kind hearts I have always known El Paso to have.

El Paso, I love you so much. I am so proud of you in the city and community and what you mean to the rest of the country. And what you have achieved tonight, along with so many other amazing people across the state. The kindness, generosity you have shown to me and Amy and our family, and to our campaign, it’s amazing. That is why my faith in this state and country is not diminished. We will continue to work and come together to make sure that we live up to the promise of potential of the country. I know that because I met you and listened to you everywhere you live.

I want to thank my family, beginning with Amy, who has borne the toughest burden raising our kids, supporting me, loving me, giving me strength and encouragement at every step, making sure we could finish this as strong as we started. I want to thank our children and my mom and sisters and my family, all of whom are here tonight, for being such great examples to me. I love you.

I want to thank this amazing campaign of people. Not a dime from a single PAC. All of you showing the country how to do this. I am so fecking proud of you guys. David, Jody, Chris, Cynthia, everybody who worked on this campaign, every volunteer and ambassador, everyone who knocked on doors, everyone who made phone calls, everyone who allow themselves to hope and believe, to be inspired by one another and to turn it into action and into votes, and to do something that no one thought was possible, to build a campaign like this one solely comprised of people from all walks of life, coming together, deciding what unites us is far stronger than the color of our skin, how many generations we can count ourselves an American, or whether we just got here yesterday, who we love, we pray to, whether we pray at all, who we voted for last time, none of it matters.

It is the greatness to which we aspire and the work we are willing to put into it to achieve it by which we will be known going forward. This campaign holds a very special place in the history of this country. Every day going forward. You have made that possible.

This team of which we are all members in some way is going to stay together and continue to aspire to do great things. It may be in individual races and communities. It may not have anything to do with politics. But each of us, sometimes together finding ways to make life better for one another in our communities. There are so many great candidates who will come out of this campaign whose work I look forward to supporting and following and cheering on. Know this: I am forever changed in the most profoundly positive way. I am forever grateful to every single one of you for making this possible. I believe in you and I believe in Texas and in this country.

I love you more than words can express and that love will persist every day going forward, making sure whatever we have created and changed, and all of us will decide what that means and how far it goes, that it leads something far greater than what we have today and that everything one of us continues to believe and made possible the greatness of the United States of America.

I am honored to have been able to do this with you and grateful. We will see you down the road. Thank you, El Paso. Thank you, Texas.

Thank you, every single one of you, for making this possible. I am so grateful. Thank you. Thank you.
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Revan said:
Oh yeah, the classical "I am not a Trump supporter, I am just delighted that he won, and so I am posting a map which anyone who has a basic understanding of US politics knows is bullshit, and claiming that this was a big victory for him despite that Republicans in national level lost by 7 to 10 points in both house and senate". Carry on.
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Shqipe, every incumbent loses seats in the midterms. Given the anti-Trump momentum in the US, I EXPECTED DEMS to run the table, which they didn't. They could have stalled the Trump agenda to a halt and seriously damaged his chances for reelection.

Thanks for the lecture though, it means a lot getting the Kosovo/Suisse perspective on what's happening here on the ground.
 
Suedesi said:
Shqipe, every incumbent loses seats in the midterms. Given the anti-Trump momentum in the US, I EXPECTED DEMS to run the table, which they didn't. They could have stalled the Trump agenda to a halt and seriously damaged his chances for reelection.

Thanks for the lecture though, it means a lot getting the Kosovo/Suisse perspective on what's happening here on the ground.
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1998 Bill Clinton disagrees.
 
Suedesi said:
Actually, this is a pretty good result for Trump. His position in the GOP is cemented, and Republicans picked up 4 seats in Senate. Blue wave turned out to be a puddle. Compare 2018 results with say 2010 (2 years after Obama's first election) - when the Democrats got annihilated at the congressional, state and local level - and you'll see that Republicans (aka Trump) did pretty well, which bodes well for his re-election in 2020.

This is the House results map

live_map_house.png
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Thinking about it in relative terms might be useful for future predictions, but it's a pretty poor way to assess the present situation. Trump lost. He might not have lost by as much as had been predicted, or as much as has happened in the past, but he lost.

"If the democrats win the house they will impeach Trump. That can't happen."

That was a central message of Trump supporters. Their fear has been realised. That counts more than any relative measures you can find.
 
Suedesi said:
Shqipe, every incumbent loses seats in the midterms. Given the anti-Trump momentum in the US, I EXPECTED DEMS to run the table, which they didn't. They could have stalled the Trump agenda to a halt and seriously damaged his chances for reelection.

Thanks for the lecture though, it means a lot getting the Kosovo/Suisse perspective on what's happening here on the ground.
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Not necessarily true.

Also, historically the gerrymandering hasn't been as big a problem as it is now. When a party needs to win by 5-6% percentage point in order to win the majority, you know that things are problematic.
 
Suedesi said:
Actually, this is a pretty good result for Trump. His position in the GOP is cemented, and Republicans picked up 4 seats in Senate. Blue wave turned out to be a puddle. Compare 2018 results with say 2010 (2 years after Obama's first election) - when the Democrats got annihilated at the congressional, state and local level - and you'll see that Republicans (aka Trump) did pretty well, which bodes well for his re-election in 2020.

This is the House results map

live_map_house.png
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It would be easier if you admitted you don’t know what you’re talking about.
The guy who said voters should bring their own power cables made more sense than you tonight.
 
Damien said:
Beto O'Rourke's concession transcript
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Love Beto to bits, but his "I have visited every county" has become so tiring that I dread the inevitable "I have visited every state in US when he runs for Pres/VP". I mean, it was nice to see him saying that, but not after the first trillion times he said that.
 
Just saw Beto got within a few points, the closeness makes it worse somehow.

Also, Klobuchar anyone?
 
Brwned said:
Thinking about it in relative terms might be useful for future predictions, but it's a pretty poor way to assess the present situation. Trump lost. He might not have lost by as much as had been predicted, or as much as has happened in the past, but he lost.

"If the democrats win the house they will impeach Trump. That can't happen."

That was a central message of Trump supporters. Their fear has been realised. That counts more than any relative measures you can find.
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It’s not even useful for future prediction.

94: GOP wave
96: Dem president
98: Dem wave
00: GOP president
02: GOP modest gains
04: GOP president
06: Dem wave
08: Dem president
10: GOP wave
12: Dem president
14: GOP wave
16: GOP president
18: Dem wave

So basically feck all correlation/causation can be deduced from past and future races on results alone. Presidential approval number, battleground maps, state of the economy etc... fundamentals that drive voters behaviours are more reliable indicator of how things would turn out.
 
I just don't see there ever being enough progressives in America to bring about electoral reform. It will always be stuck in a rut of terrible right/far-right presidents.

Senate is fecked for the long term now though, so even if Dems win 2020 any justices they want will have to be centre right at the very least.
 
Thanks America. You voted in a racist, mysoginistic feckwad who spent the last 2 years dividing Americans between themselves and demonizing the free press whilst pissing on every possible aspect of civilized behaviour and decorum. Oh and in the process turning America into a country despised and mistrusted by its allies and ensuring its word can never be trusted. Then after two years of hate and fear and violence you finally get a nationwide chance to feedback on his performance and your final judgement was 'Ah, not so bad'.

Brilliant..
 
Kentonio said:
Thanks America. You voted in a racist, mysoginistic feckwad who spent the last 2 years dividing Americans between themselves and demonizing the free press whilst pissing on every possible aspect of civilized behaviour and decorum. Oh and in the process turning America into a country despised and mistrusted by its allies and ensuring its word can never be trusted. Then after two years of hate and fear and violence you finally get a nationwide chance to feedback on his performance and your final judgement was 'Ah, not so bad'.

Brilliant..
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You have higher expectations of America than I have. The place is utterly bonkers.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
There is a weird obsession with American politics in the UK at least. The whole story with the senator on trial recently was leading the news here. Surely there are more pertinent domestic issues to look at.
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I'm definitely obsessed with American politics, it's fascinating real life drama. Has there ever been a western government so openly corrupt, bigoted and divisive? All the criminal investigations going on against Trump and his cronies, all the guilty pleas still awaiting sentencing because they have turned against their former master. Yet despite it all.. half the US still seems to support the republican party. Its mind boggling and it's juicy stuff, better than anything on netflix. This time is going to be written about for decades, I enjoy following it all in real time. Just a damn shame it actually affects the entire world too.
 
altodevil86 said:
I just don't see there ever being enough progressives in America to bring about electoral reform. It will always be stuck in a rut of terrible right/far-right presidents.

Senate is fecked for the long term now though, so even if Dems win 2020 any justices they want will have to be centre right at the very least.
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High increase in voter turnout for the midterms bodes well, that trend will continue.
The Dems need to work on their optics in order to capture & inspire people to vote for them though, that's why its disappointing that not one of Abrahams, O'Rourke or Gillum won tonight - just 1 of them winning would've been a spark that the Dems need right now, because it would've been the visual tide turning.
 
villain said:
High increase in voter turnout for the midterms bodes well, that trend will continue.
The Dems need to work on their optics in order to capture & inspire people to vote for them though, that's why its disappointing that not one of Abrahams, O'Rourke or Gillum won tonight - just 1 of them winning would've been a spark that the Dems need right now, because it would've been the visual tide turning.
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I think that is a very good point - there is nobody out there on the Dem side who seems capable of pulling people together and opposing Trump in any meaningful way right now. Trump is going to easily walk into a second term.
 
So can someone explain to me the gravity of these results?

Was it an underwhelming night for the Dems? (Ie did they do better or worse than hoped?) and is it damning for Trump?
 
balaks said:
I think that is a very good point - there is nobody out there on the Dem side who seems capable of pulling people together and opposing Trump in any meaningful way right now. Trump is going to easily walk into a second term.
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Possibly, but only because the Dems don't have a clear candidate right now.
They have two years to rally around someone and formulate a clear strategy, there is definitely momentum and appetite for change - there's just a lack of leadership.

Nothing about the results tonight have proven that Trump is gonna walk 2020 imo.
 
Kaos said:
So can someone explain to me the gravity of these results?

Was it an underwhelming night for the Dems? (Ie did they do better or worse than hoped?) and is it damning for Trump?
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It was a piece of shit night for the Dems. Trump must be laughing his ass off, even though the house Dems can now make his life unpleasant for 2 years.
 
Kentonio said:
It was a piece of shit night for the Dems. Trump must be laughing his ass off, even though the house Dems can now make his life unpleasant for 2 years.
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Ahh I feared as much.

Though the optimist in me hopes this is a cue for the Dems to rally around a genuine progressive. No more Clinton/Perez/Pelosi types.
 
Kaos said:
So can someone explain to me the gravity of these results?

Was it an underwhelming night for the Dems? (Ie did they do better or worse than hoped?) and is it damning for Trump?
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From what I've been reading it seems that nothing has happened that might convince Trump that his approach to the Presidency is the wrong way to go about things, and much to convince him that he's got it absolutely spot on.
 
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