2024 U.S. Elections

Raoul

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The odds are currently Trump 1/2 to win and Biden 2/1. The more of these Biden dementia episodes will swing it further towards Trump. I'm surprised so many on here think Biden will win, I'd be shocked. And Trump winning will be a shitshow beyond belief.
Are these the right wing conjured up “dementia” episodes involving clearly edited videos to make Biden look lost ?
 

Stack

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Are these the right wing conjured up “dementia” episodes involving clearly edited videos to make Biden look lost ?
Yes and its mud slinging and the result is some people start to believe its true even if its not. Some people see through it but also plenty dont. Over time this tactic has an impact.
 

The United

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My Mum used to live near Des Moines, it's actually a pretty decent state but nothing for mile's in certain cases, a definite Republican stronghold, don't think I ever bumped into any would be democrats whilst there and it has a pretty good state University(s) but alot of the girls were like old fashioned cowgirl good ol' American sweethearts
It's surprising that this quiet state, which typically doesn't sway elections in favor of Democrats, is receiving discussion and attention due to a presidential Democratic candidate's poor performance there.
 

Precaution

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It's surprising that this quiet state, which typically doesn't sway elections in favor of Democrats, is receiving discussion and attention due to a presidential Democratic candidate's poor performance there.
Must be the Iowa State fair, they do have a Giant Butter cow, I can see that having sway in something ;)
 

berbatrick

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Lot of interesting stuff in this election, of course the AIPAC cash (~8 million for a primary!!), Hillary's endorsement against an incumbent the same day Latimer said he is against Biden's tax increases, Latimer saying "Bowman represents Dearborn", and now this, with unanimous support among the replies I saw:

 

Mike Smalling

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Lot of interesting stuff in this election, of course the AIPAC cash (~8 million for a primary!!), Hillary's endorsement against an incumbent the same day Latimer said he is against Biden's tax increases, Latimer saying "Bowman represents Dearborn", and now this, with unanimous support among the replies I saw:

It must be infuriating to always be told that have to vote one way or the other to somehow be true to your identity. I think that would really piss me off.
 

Mike Smalling

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The possible solution proposed here is for Biden to run with Hillary as his VP. How are these people paid to write this stuff?
 

Iker Quesadillas

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It's surprising that this quiet state, which typically doesn't sway elections in favor of Democrats, is receiving discussion and attention due to a presidential Democratic candidate's poor performance there.
It's because Selzer polls for Iowa are excellent.

Selzer & Co. conducted their final 2016 Iowa poll in early November, showing Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by 7 percentage points. Most other polls at the time showed a much closer race. Trump won Iowa by 9.4 percentage points. On October 31, 2020, Selzer's highly anticipated last poll of Iowa before the 2020 elections was released. It showed Trump ahead of Joe Biden by 7 percentage points, and Republican Senator Joni Ernst ahead of Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield by 4 percentage points. This was the only poll conducted in fall 2020 to show Trump ahead by more than 2 points. Ernst's race was considered a toss-up at the time. Trump eventually won Iowa by 8.2 percentage points, and Ernst was re-elected by a 6.6 point margin.
Harder to claim "polls are wrong" in this particular case.

 
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Morty_

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Selzer also have Rasmussen-numbers when it come to the national vote, last poll National poll was Trump +7, i don't know what to make of that.
 

berbatrick

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extremely weird thing for a non-jewish politician to post. goes without saying he would be hounded for this if he wasn't pro-israel.

 

Dr. StrangeHate

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when they sniff a real chance it's 20 million, not 100k


14m from Israel, 2.5m direct, and 2m from crypto lobbies.
USA economy never ceases to amaze me. I am sure I read somewhere that in UK a single party is limited to spend 35 million max and in the US more is spent on one single race.
 

Morty_

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Bad take from Rosenberg, just because Fox News isn't a real news organization, doesn't mean their polling is automatically not real.

That said, i also have bad takes, such as, actually considering if Selzer and co are on drugs this particular election cycle, very highly rated pollster, so they should be correct, and yet, they have some of the biggest outliers polling this race.
 

berbatrick

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Bad take from Rosenberg, just because Fox News isn't a real news organization, doesn't mean their polling is automatically not real.

That said, i also have bad takes, such as, actually considering if Selzer and co are on drugs this particular election cycle, very highly rated pollster, so they should be correct, and yet, they have some of the biggest outliers polling this race.
I know their Iowa polling is the reputable one but never even realised they do national polls (which are the massive outliers right now, I think)
 

berbatrick

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extremely weird thing for a non-jewish politician to post. goes without saying he would be hounded for this if he wasn't pro-israel.

what can and can't be said is really fascinating.


it's a really interesting profile: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/06/21/jamaal-bowman-israel-trip-reelection-00163788

I vaguely remember when he did the compulsory Israel pilgrimage all US representatives must do, because it was seen as a betrayal of the lefties who volunteered and donated to him. Surprisingly, that trip itself was a negative turning point for his views on Israel.
 

Morty_

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One thing is for sure. His pick will be someone that would obey the same order given to Mike Pence on Jan 6th. It'll be the first/only question of the interview.
He should just pick MTG then, i mean, it's not like Rubio helps him electorally anyway, as it's just a safe red state now, he has next to no reach outside that.

But the truth is, he wants someone super boring, cause if one thing is certain, Trump is all about himself, he can't share the attention with anyone else.
 
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4bars

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He should just pick MTG then, i mean, it's not like Rubio helps him electorally anyway, as it's just a safe red state now, he has next to no reach outside that.
MTG one step away of being POTUS with a 80 year old trump that could die any day...i would pay for that apocalitpic movie
 

Morty_

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MTG one step away of being POTUS with a 80 year old trump that could die any day...i would pay for that apocalitpic movie
Bit late to edit, but he also wants a really boring vp, cause he can't share attention with anybody else, MTG with her Jewish space lasers and whatnot, doesn't fit the bill.
 

Kinsella

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I've always wondered why this thread, together with the 'US Politics' and 'Religion, what's the point?' threads feature so prominently in the Current Events section.

Scrolling back through them I found the answer - calodo2003
 
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VorZakone

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I've always wondered why this thread, together with the 'US Politics' and 'Religion, what's the point?' threads feature so prominently in the Current Events section.

Scrolling back through them I found the answer - calodo2003
Why would you wonder that about this thread though? An American election year is always major news, especially one as polarized as this one with Biden vs Trump. This thread will likely become more active as the election comes closer.
 

Kinsella

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Why would you wonder that about this thread though? An American election year is always major news, especially one as polarized as this one with Biden vs Trump. This thread will likely become more active as the election comes closer.
It's all three threads I'm referring to not this one specifically and I suppose it's because it's been that way for years (and not just this snapshot in time), regularly overshadowing other threads much more relevant to this part of the world. It's a bit like there's an American bot account spreading disinformation on RedCafe (an Irish website). ;)

Anyway...back to Trump v Biden.
 

V.O.

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It's all three threads I'm referring to not this one specifically and I suppose it's because it's been that way for years (and not just this snapshot in time), regularly overshadowing other threads much more relevant to this part of the world. It's a bit like there's an American bot account spreading disinformation on RedCafe (an Irish website). ;)

Anyway...back to Trump v Biden.
It's the internet, mate. There is no "this part of the world".