Rasmus Højlund | Signed for United

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How is it a flawed argument? The point is is that people constantly going on about this and that need to realise not every forward is pissing Haaland at 20 years of age. You wanna count the player out before he's even stepped foot on the pitch for us just as you would have with Kane and other forwards of a similar age who haven't scored 20/30 goals at the time
It's a massively flawed argument because for every Kane there's 1000 duds.

You can't take a generational striker and extrapolate from there. Players peak at different times and their skillets differ.

All Hojlund has done is have one decent season in his entire playing career. Hundreds of players have done the same in that league. I still remember the Belotti hype.

By the way, saying a player isn't worth 70m eur based on what they've done in their career so far isn't counting him out. It's calling a spade a spade.
 
It's a massively flawed argument because for every Kane there's 1000 duds.

You can't take a generational striker and extrapolate from there. Players peak at different times and their skillets differ.

All Hojlund has done is have one decent season in his entire playing career. Hundreds of players have done the same in that league. I still remember the Belotti hype.

So who should we be looking to sign then
 
So who should we be looking to sign then
I just named 4 players who we can test the waters with for the fee Atalanta ask, all of whom are more established than Hojlund. You can throw Jonathan David there too along with Ramos, Vlahovic etc.
 
David, Muani and Vlahovic are probably the most sensible options I've seen that are vaguely in the same price category (although not exactly, the devil is in the detail of course, I don't think we get Muani for what we can hopefully negotiate Hojlund down to)

I find it interesting that David has done the rounds for years and as yet big clubs are not putting him front and centre. I see him going to somewhere like Villa eventually. I don't know what the reason is. On paper he looks an eminently sensible option but maybe there's something in the scouting that's not really convincing clubs. Dunno but I'd mark this one up as a good option.

I would guess Muani is not the profile for a single forward signing. Hojlund and him are like opposites. So I think you can infer something about what ETH wants from his like for Hojlund. So there's probably not so much point coming up with strikers that want to drop off a lot and be creative more than filling the box and occupying defenders.

I think a lot of Vlahovic's metrics in many areas of play are really mediocre at the moment. That worries me because the PL is a different kettle of fish in terms of competitiveness and physicality. Still, probably a reasonable option if we can't get anywhere with Atalanta.
 
Jonathan David's stats i'll grant you paint a better picture, and at a rumoured 50 mill Euro's that's a great deal for someone you'd suspect.. but nobody seems to be in for him. I suspect the reason is that Jonathan David is more of a 2nd or SS, he is not normally played as a lone forward as far as I'm aware, he's also only 5'9 and less physical than Hojlund, and his game is completely different. If we played with two forwards i'd he'd be a good choice, but we don't.

Metrics backup that on the whole Hojlund actually had a better season than Vlahovic, he's also faster, younger and I would argue has more potential. Not only that but PSG seem like they are going to buy Vlahovic.

Kolo Muani is a completely different type of forward to Hojlund, and so that might be the reason we aren't going for him? Not only that but it's been reported he'd cost anywhere from 80-100 so he's more expensive than Hojlund

Would say Vlahovic fits so surprised there isn't more interest in him as alternative to Kane too
 
Jonathan David's stats i'll grant you paint a better picture, and at a rumoured 50 mill Euro's that's a great deal for someone you'd suspect.. but nobody seems to be in for him. I suspect the reason is that Jonathan David is more of a 2nd or SS, he is not normally played as a lone forward as far as I'm aware, he's also only 5'9 and less physical than Hojlund, and his game is completely different. If we played with two forwards i'd he'd be a good choice, but we don't.
It's because Lille's demanding €60m for him. That combined with his overall profile being more suited to a second-striker role means that no one's as willing to take a punt on him as they are on Højlund, who's younger and also has a better athletic profile.

David's performances aren't that consistent, either; he has multiple dry spells where he's not involved in Lille's goals. He still gets good stats thanks to his insane productivity when he's on form, but when he's off form, he's basically a passenger. With Højlund, when he's not on form, at least he's still spearheading Atalanta's & Denmark's attack and allowing other players to make a major contribution.
 
It's a massively flawed argument because for every Kane there's 1000 duds.

You can't take a generational striker and extrapolate from there. Players peak at different times and their skillets differ.

All Hojlund has done is have one decent season in his entire playing career. Hundreds of players have done the same in that league. I still remember the Belotti hype.

By the way, saying a player isn't worth 70m eur based on what they've done in their career so far isn't counting him out. It's calling a spade a spade.
I'm not saying he will become Kane, but we're also not going to pay 70m Euro's for him (if we sign him) i'd be very very surprised. If we do, then I trust ETH and the recruitment team to know why they are paying that much for him as opposed to going with forum scout targets
 
I'm not saying he will become Kane, but we're also not going to pay 70m Euro's for him (if we sign him) i'd be very very surprised. If we do, then I trust ETH and the recruitment team to know why they are paying that much for him as opposed to going with forum scout targets

Yeah I am convinced we will negotiate a lower figure than €70m but maybe I am wrong
 
David, Muani and Vlahovic are probably the most sensible options I've seen that are vaguely in the same price category (although not exactly, the devil is in the detail of course, I don't think we get Muani for what we can hopefully negotiate Hojlund down to)

I find it interesting that David has done the rounds for years and as yet big clubs are not putting him front and centre. I see him going to somewhere like Villa eventually. I don't know what the reason is. On paper he looks an eminently sensible option but maybe there's something in the scouting that's not really convincing clubs. Dunno but I'd mark this one up as a good option.

I would guess Muani is not the profile for a single forward signing. Hojlund and him are like opposites. So I think you can infer something about what ETH wants from his like for Hojlund. So there's probably not so much point coming up with strikers that want to drop off a lot and be creative more than filling the box and occupying defenders.

I think a lot of Vlahovic's metrics in many areas of play are really mediocre at the moment. That worries me because the PL is a different kettle of fish in terms of competitiveness and physicality. Still, probably a reasonable option if we can't get anywhere with Atalanta.

Out of those three, I would only be even remotely interested in Muani…and that at a much lower price than he’s being quoted at. Would rather overpay for Hojlund than overpaying for any of those three.
 
Some of the takes here make very little sense. To not be particularly enthused by the signing because we were hoping for a top striker is one thing. I think we have all been hoping for an established, top class 9 in their prime as we have lacked that for so long. So I get that frustration. Hojlund is not that and probably won't develop into that for quite a number of seasons. As people like to say, he is a project - but one we hope can contribute in the short term. There is no world where it can be guaranteed that Hojlund is a major contributor next season. I think the conservative guess would be that he'll offer something Weghorst and an injured Martial can't but beyond that who knows.

But the arguments put forward around the negative aspects of this signing are pretty weak when you actually get into the detail and context of it.

For example, it's too much and we should go for someone else. So who are these various other strikers that are a) more appealing and b) better value? You can go cheap and get what you pay for on some journeyman or totally unheard of prospect, or you can go big and throw your name into an Osimhen hat, but if the budget isn't there it isn't there to do that. There is no "established, cheap" market for a striker. There just ain't. So what I want to know is who are the strikers that fit into our reported budget that people will advocate for ahead of Hojlund? That's a far more useful discussion than simply moaning about price because it frames the discussion within the parameters the club actually works within. Not vague feelings.

On price. Why is it such poor value according to some? He's just turned 20, had a promising season in a major league and scored a goal a game for his national team. It's not like he has been playing in the Latvian league. What are we really expecting to get a player like that for? Buttons? I think the fact Atalanta unearthed him and took the initial risk should be rewarded. That's the way it works in football. Those that go for unheralded players end up making a huge profit if they work, but they'll sign 5 or 6 others that don't ever make it to top clubs and several that are complete duds. Is he being priced like a major superstar? No he's not, they're starting at 70 million euros probably with a view to sealing a deal around 55-60million euros, which is not a fee for a 20 year old that is considered an elite talent in Europe. If Hojlund comes to United and scores 15 league goals, he's probably adding a third to that valuation immediately. So that tells me this fee is very much in the ballpark and gives room for it to go either way, it is not a premium valuation. If he scores 10 league goals in the next couple seasons he is probably not going to be a loss maker for us, and if he becomes what ETH would envisage then he is a rare breed of 9 and you can put any figure on it.

For me it's quite clear that most aspects of this transfer would be a positive. If we can negotiate it down it fits into the budget. He's young, very talented, great physically which prepares him for our league. The manager has shown he can improve players and he is getting raw ingridients for a 9.

thats a very insightful and measured post…
 
Your idea of strikers that are alternatives to Hojlund is two strikers Newcastle are unlikely to have an intention to sell and have the economic power to retain, and players at City, Arsenal and Liverpool.

I get that you're trying to give "examples" of the type we could go after rather than direct targets but that's a redundant exercise in truth. They have to actually be available this summer and that's what we're coming up against. Availability of strong options and a limited budget to blow clubs out of the water with what we can offer (say for Osimhen or Ramos, even Kane). Those are the things that are constraining us.

There just isn't many proven choices that are more compelling. Yes you can throw in random guys from France but that's very much the Hojlund school of signing. What's the point in that if ETH rates Hojlund as the best potential? No point whatsoever I'd suggest.

Other than that I'm seeing stuff like Mitrovic or Watkins..players we absolutely know are not good enough in the long term. So posters are advocating a sticking plaster rather than trusting a top class manager to build a player out of potential. I think that's foolish. I'm not saying they're rubbish players but we know their ceiling. It's pretty much cut and dry and what you see is what you get and what you see is not United level, it's a placeholder.

I'm obviously not suggesting we go get the players in my original list. Football players are valued relative to each other - valuation doesn't exist in a vacuum. So you should be able to get a player of similar quality for a similar price (+ maybe some United / PL tax but whatever). Wilson for 30M, Isak for 70M, Gakpo 50M, Jesus 50M, Nkunku 80M. That's the baseline. In no universe has Hojlund done as much as Nkunku or Isak.

I don't buy the there aren't any other targets argument. Any club worth its salt will have atleast 5 recommendations available for that position. Several in this thread already.

It's pretty much cut and dry and what you see is what you get and what you see is not United level, it's a placeholder.

This is what I meant by we think we're too good for these players. We literally have no recognized #9. Guys like Mitrovic, Watkins, Toney would absolutely improve us. Even in the glory days we had guys like OGS. It's more about what skillset / tactical solutions they bring than viewing players in isolation. What would Mitrovic bring you when you're 1-0 down against WHU (A) vs what would Rashford upfront solve when we setup to counter attack against Pool.
 
Majority of the best strikers that ever played in this league didn't come from this league, PL proven shite is a myth.

If you seriously want to forego a signing that could be a fantastic elite striker for us for years to come for Mitrovic you actively want us to fail.

What was Harry Kane doing at Hojlund's age? Nothing, scoring 5 goals at Leyton Orient.

"Proper Utd level CF" and names Mitrovic and Watkins please be serious, not sure what is wrong with all of you, absolutely no grasp on reality or just straight up spoiled people crying because they can't get Kane or Osimhen.

Watkins shouldn’t be sniffed at when considering spunking £60m on Hoijlund.

I get it, any player ETH wants suddenly becomes the only player many of you will consider.

And suddenly, PL proven becomes a joke because, ‘feck me, mate, don’t you know Rasmus Hoijlund scored 10 goals for a mid table Serie A side!?’, but it does count for a lot. Ask Fergie.

ETH himself said that he wanted ‘no risk’ with a striker. A PL proven CF AS WELL AS a project like Hoijlund is the ideal, and that’s what I’m advocating - I’m not saying ‘don’t sign this kid’, I’m saying don’t just sign him.

And IF we must just sign one striker, considering Utd have no fit and reliable CFs and just ended the season with Wout fecking Weghorst up front, I’m saying if it’s one or the other given that context, then yes, I’d go for a PL proven striker.

Turn your nose up at names like Watkins, Toney or Mitro while arguing the case for Weghorst is madness.

Stick Hoijlund up front for Fulham or Villa and see how he does in the PL.

We have a culture now as a club of prioritising weird signings and fees / contracts when more simple, obvious solutions are right there.

This is what Fergie was so good at, especially with strikers.

Maybe Hoijlund is literally the best thing since sliced bread, and if so that’s great. But if he’s in fact a raw project that needs time and development, then he really shouldn’t be Utd’s priority CF signing THIS WINDOW imo.
 
I'm not saying he will become Kane, but we're also not going to pay 70m Euro's for him (if we sign him) i'd be very very surprised. If we do, then I trust ETH and the recruitment team to know why they are paying that much for him as opposed to going with forum scout targets
Well that's what Atalanta are holding firm on, so wel see what happens. 70m is mental. 60m is also stupid, albeit less mental.
 
I am intrigued what more Erik's coaching can get out of him,however do wish we could get someone cheap and experienced to help take the pressure off his shoulders a bit. The problem is I am having trouble coming up with any suggestions who fit that particular criteria
 
I'm obviously not suggesting we go get the players in my original list. Football players are valued relative to each other - valuation doesn't exist in a vacuum. So you should be able to get a player of similar quality for a similar price (+ maybe some United / PL tax but whatever). Wilson for 30M, Isak for 70M, Gakpo 50M, Jesus 50M, Nkunku 80M. That's the baseline. In no universe has Hojlund done as much as Nkunku or Isak.

I don't buy the there aren't any other targets argument. Any club worth its salt will have atleast 5 recommendations available for that position. Several in this thread already.



This is what I meant by we think we're too good for these players. We literally have no recognized #9. Guys like Mitrovic, Watkins, Toney would absolutely improve us. Even in the glory days we had guys like OGS. It's more about what skillset / tactical solutions they bring than viewing players in isolation. What would Mitrovic bring you when you're 1-0 down against WHU (A) vs what would Rashford upfront solve when we setup to counter attack against Pool.

You're ignoring the fact that ETH and the recruitment team have seemingly earmarked Hojlund out of what no doubt is hundreds of targets for the position, you don't ask why you just say no no there's better choices I know better. Well according to the professionals he's the one they've landed on, i've no doubt they have alternates but you say "I dont buy there aren't any other targets" as if the club is just sat on it's ass and knows the only striker in world football that exists is Rasmus Hojlund. They clearly like what his skillset / tactical solutions he brings to the team above guys like Mitrovic so I honestly have no clue what you are complaining about, and just to go off on your list...

Callum Wilson - 18 goals in 36 appearences, his third best season in 13 seasons of football. More single digit goal tally seasons than double.
Gakpo - 7 goals in 26 appearences this season.
Gabriel Jesus - 11 goals in 33 appearences this season.
Aleksander Isak - 10 goals in 27 appearences this season.
Nkunku - 23 goals in 36 appearences this season. Sold cheap because of a release clause

You select players with terrible goal records, even when comparing to Hojlunds this season, players who aren't an out an out striker, players who are over 10 years older than him, players who go cheap because of a release clause, I could go on but what is the point.
 
I'm obviously not suggesting we go get the players in my original list. Football players are valued relative to each other - valuation doesn't exist in a vacuum. So you should be able to get a player of similar quality for a similar price (+ maybe some United / PL tax but whatever). Wilson for 30M, Isak for 70M, Gakpo 50M, Jesus 50M, Nkunku 80M. That's the baseline. In no universe has Hojlund done as much as Nkunku or Isak.

I don't buy the there aren't any other targets argument. Any club worth its salt will have atleast 5 recommendations available for that position. Several in this thread already.



This is what I meant by we think we're too good for these players. We literally have no recognized #9. Guys like Mitrovic, Watkins, Toney would absolutely improve us. Even in the glory days we had guys like OGS. It's more about what skillset / tactical solutions they bring than viewing players in isolation. What would Mitrovic bring you when you're 1-0 down against WHU (A) vs what would Rashford upfront solve when we setup to counter attack against Pool.
I disagree on the way you look at valuation but to be honest it's probably not the crux of the topic at hand so I won't delve too far into it. But I think even within your list of players we can see football does not have anything approaching a complete logic on valuations and it is mostly a wild west out there more than it is about relativity. There isn't really a consistent internal logic between those fees that I can identify except that Wilson is the oldest and probably least talented. I'd say fees are more about individual commodities and a willingness between buyer and seller and depending on the balance of power there is a pretty wide spread for what a fee can reasonably be in this footballing landscape.

Well...to put it bluntly, yes we are better than Mitrovic and Watkins. Or at least, I would say that we should be aiming to be categorically within a selection of clubs that would have little use for this calibre of striker. I think they can be useful at the moment because our need is so dire, our striking affairs are appalling to be honest. But that is not even close to being the same thing as saying that they are the best we can do or even an especially good idea if we have funds to make one signing.

I also wouldn't say it's primarily about a specific tactical solution. I can't identify one function that is being filled up front for us so I would say it's about identifying an overall solution even if its one that will take a few seasons to reach fruition. We have one central striker in Martial that isn't available for half the season and another in Rashford that already has a preferred position that we lose quality on once he moves. It would be missing the woods for the trees to suggest it's about finding certain solutions in certain games. It's about a consistent presence in that position first and foremost. I don't think ETH is looking at it and thinking it's about who he brings off the bench at 1-0 down or who counterattacks. We see ETH likes a consistency of selection and undoubtedly he wanted Kane to completely solve this issue, and now that can't happen he's looking for potential to invest in and mould to become that consistent selection. Now, could he do this with Watkins or Mitrovic? I would say that yes he could and it would muddle by for a season, but unless you have a pot of gold named Kane at the end of that process it doesn't make much sense compared to investing in talent we believe can become far better than those players.
 
Hojlund in at 50m and I still think with sales we go for Kane end of the window
 
That's simply not how it works here mate.

Imo Hojlund atm with his cv doesn't even worth €40m. With a much more proven goals scoring record Lukaku reportedly worth about €50m. The striker market is surely dire, but only for the top proven ones. The average ones? Well not that dire imo.

We're ready to pay let's say €40m + €20m because we really need a striker and we think he has potential. That's a fair deal imo and I'm pretty sure Atalanta would find plenty options to replace him. Or they don't even need to since they already have two. They're a bit old but surely enough for them for at least the next season. Then they could buy Elanga from us for example. Imo Elanga would do pretty well there as any attacker with some good pace and average at everthing else. Then change his name to Hojlanga and ask us for another €60m.

Joking aside it's not that hard to find an average striker. The current Hojlund is average. He might turn into a good one though but nobody can be sure of that. That's why there are the add ons. You pay cash for the current ability of the player. Then a bit cash and add ons for his potential. Nobody pay all cash for a young kid that none can be sure about. That's how it works here mate.
I read somewhere Hojlund rank 5th in the non-penalty per 90 min goal ranking in Serie A last season. Point is he is the youngest (only 20) and is definitely on upward trajectory. Whereas players like Lukaku is already 30 and well past his peak. If f Lukaku worth €50m Hojlund is definitely going to cost more.
 
All Hojlund has done is have one decent season in his entire playing career. Hundreds of players have done the same in that league. I still remember the Belotti hype.
You can’t simply judge a young player (who is only 20) base on his “entire career”. That’s not the right way to do. You need to measure their potential instead, it’s the same way when Real bought teenage Vinicius Junior or Rodrygo for 40m each before they had barely step their foot on the pitch. If it’s base on their “entire career” at that time they should even worth more than 1m.
 
You can’t simply judge a young player (who is only 20) base on his “entire career”. That’s not the right way to do. You need to measure their potential instead, it’s the same way when Real bought teenage Vinicius Junior or Rodrygo for 40m each before they had barely step their foot on the pitch. If it’s base on their “entire career” at that time they should even worth more than 1m.
Right but these guys were arguably bigger potentials than Hojlund.

Höjlund is objectively not worth the Atalanta asking price and it doesn't matter which way you try and slice it.
 
Right but these guys were arguably bigger potentials than Hojlund.

Höjlund is objectively not worth the Atalanta asking price and it doesn't matter which way you try and slice it.

Yeah I agree they were bigger potentials
 
Would say Vlahovic fits so surprised there isn't more interest in him as alternative to Kane too
I personally feel it's a bit if a red flag how few clubs are jumping to sign him despite how high-profile he is, not to mention the fact Juve are looking to sell. He also doesn't pass the eye test for me; strikes me as Lukaku without the pace. He's the obvious available established player, but if no-one's seriously in for him, there's usually a good reason.
 


Hojlund vs other strikers in Serie A btw

I'm really keen on Hojlund for United.

But charts like this don't do much for me.

Hojlund only played 1836 minutes last season and came off the bench 12 times. It's not representative to extrapolate that to a per 90 metric, then compare him to a bunch of other players who mainly played as starters.

By way of example, Hojlund's goals per 90 last season was 0.44 while Martial's was 0.55. You have to look beyond those numbers to see the way each of them helped their teams.

I don't believe that Martial is good enough for United, yet if we plotted him on the same chart he'd be pretty much at the very top right. You could say the same thing about Ronaldo the year before. And we all know how badly CR7 upset the team balance, contributing to Rashford only scoring 4 goals himself.

I'd rather have a CF who actually helps Rashford, Bruno, Antony et al score more, even if it means the CF himself scores less. The point should be to increase the overall team total rather than to help one man to stat pad.

This is why I'm mainly concentrating on our transfer target's style of play. It needs to mesh well with EtH's philosophy as well as his future teammates. That's where Hojlund looks like a good prospect imo. I'd be happy with him only ever getting to 15 goal per season in his prime, as long as he helps his teammates increase their own goal tallies at the same time. If I judge it by the eye test, I think he'd be capable of at least that much.

Regardless, I personally guess he'll be playing second fiddle to Rashford at CF for most of next season whatever happens. He'll get the chance to become the main man eventually, but it won't happen right away. If you just accept that Rashford will be our main striker either way, it helps make this transfer more palatable.
 
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Right but these guys were arguably bigger potentials than Hojlund.

Höjlund is objectively not worth the Atalanta asking price and it doesn't matter which way you try and slice it.
Let's be honest though, Atalanta's current asking price is not their real asking price; it's a negotiation tactic, same as Chelsea with Mount. I'm sure the club have a Max they are prepared to pay and will walk if Atalanta don't budge.
 
I personally feel it's a bit if a red flag how few clubs are jumping to sign him despite how high-profile he is, not to mention the fact Juve are looking to sell. He also doesn't pass the eye test for me; strikes me as Lukaku without the pace. He's the obvious available established player, but if no-one's seriously in for him, there's usually a good reason.

Yeah the Chelsea links clearly were very loose,only need to look at the fact none of Law,Steinberg or Jacobs really talked it up
 
Let's be honest though, Atalanta's current asking price is not their real asking price; it's a negotiation tactic, same as Chelsea with Mount. I'm sure the club have a Max they are prepared to pay and will walk if Atalanta don't budge.

Yeah we definitely have a cutoff figure for him
 
At this point, looks like this is who we want and who we will get. I'm just hoping the price is reasonable. It's exciting, a young striker with potential, but I'm far from convinced he's a sure thing, but then how many truly are at his age? Certainly not the ones in the price bracket we look set to pay.
 
At this point, looks like this is who we want and who we will get. I'm just hoping the price is reasonable. It's exciting, a young striker with potential, but I'm far from convinced he's a sure thing, but then how many truly are at his age? Certainly not the ones in the price bracket we look set to pay.

What do you consider a reasonable price
 
Ramos, Vlahovic, Watkins, Kolo Muani are all players you can test the waters with for 70m Eur that Atalanta are asking. And this is randomly off the top of my head.

This insinuation that you can't get a more established player of similar quality for that asking price is naive. A lot of posters haven't named strikers because that goes without saying.
I think it’s naive to think you can get Ramos or Muani for 70 Million, the quoted values for them are way higher.

Watkins similar quality? I don’t think so.
Vlahovic? Maybe.
 
Atlanta will sell for the right price and it will be closer to €50m I feel. With him, Martial, Rashford as main strikers, we should be good until January. That’s when we might take look again at the market to pick someone like Toney or someone similar to his skill sets.
 
Atlanta will sell for the right price and it will be closer to €50m I feel. With him, Martial, Rashford as main strikers, we should be good until January. That’s when we might take look again at the market to pick someone like Toney or someone similar to his skill sets.

Rumours in the press tomorrow that Spurs will go after Toney if Kane joins Bayern
 
Ramos, Vlahovic, Watkins, Kolo Muani are all players you can test the waters with for 70m Eur that Atalanta are asking. And this is randomly off the top of my head.

This insinuation that you can't get a more established player of similar quality for that asking price is naive. A lot of posters haven't named strikers because that goes without saying.

Now this is a better post because at least we can have a discussion.

Do you really think Ramos and Kolo Muani can be gotten from 70m€? From Benfica who always got top dollar for their players, and Kolo Muani who has 4 yrs left on his contract (not to mention he may not be the classic 9 ETH might prefer) would go for 70m€

Why would you play 70m€ for Watkins?

Many would argue Vlahovic hasn't been good enough for a top team, is too one dimensional etc. I don't have anything against him, I'd be happy enough with him, but I haven't seen him or Hojlund much, so am happy enough we would get a proper 9 with either.
 
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