This seems accurate enough. According to Opta, we average 1.41 xG and 1.43 xGA after 12 games. Both numbers are worse than last season's averages, which weren't impressive to begin with. One could argue that there's a small paradox here in the sense that, although United threaten as much as they're being threatened, we haven't drawn a game yet. We have seven wins in the league, all of them by a single goal. This is reflected in the stats: You can't have a safe cushion when you don't create more and better chances than your opponent. Other than that, there's zero balance. If the goal was to turn up the volume in the attack with high pressure and aggression, this isn't reflected on the pitch. On the contrary, an alarmingly above 1 xgA last season (despite the clean sheets), has become even worse. The numbers look mediocre because the team is plain bad. The ceiling for a good performance is a narrow win, and it just takes a good effort from the opponent, an individual error or a 50/50 call going the other way for all to go straight to hell. Most of our games are similar to a coin toss. Since the coin can't land on its edge, we don't know what we're going to get.
A few other observations for comparison (for anyone who might be interested):
City are still the best team on the island, but this isn't really news. Their xG difference remains the best in the PL, but at 0.96 it's the first time we see it below 1 during Guardiola's era. Their 1.80 xG is also the worse recorded under Pep. Do they seem a bit more mortal this season? Time will tell. But it looks like KdB's long absence is having an effect, after all, even in such a well-oiled machine like City's. People have also correctly pointed out that they missed Rodri dearly in the games they lost thus far. I'd add Stones, too. Thing is, 0.84 xGA is also the worst they have produced under a manager who is obsessed with control. Last season, Haaland's introduction saw Guardiola using 5 defenders in the build-up to accommodate a forward who rarely contributes in ball circulation. This season, he has developed a good understanding of spaces and off the ball movement with Alvarez, who isn't exactly the prototypical Pep player in the attacking half, either. Haaland/Alvarez, while trying to integrate a new midfielder (Kovacic instead of Gundogan) seems to be a bit too much when it comes to overall balance. Doku is also a player who doesn't offer control and possession with his dribbling, but immediate impact. It all looks a bit un-Guardiola-like at the moment. Even with Rodri on the pitch, the 4-4 draw at The Bridge is exactly the type of game Guardiola wants to avoid.
Liverpool with 1.93 xG are the best team in the final third. This shouldn't come as a surprise, since Klopp's way to fix things is, more often than not, "more attack" (Liverpool have often achieved an xG above 2). The addition of Szoboszlai in the midfield and that designed box in the midfield, with TAA tucking inside, shows his intentions. Still, Liverpool are a team in the process of rebuilding. Mac Allister is a lot of things, but a designated defensive midfielder who will help maintain a semblance of balance in a side that's set primarily to attack, he is not. Klopp could have used Fabinho/Henderson's experience for just one season. Up front, they look great, with Salah being his usually magnificent self and even Nunez (despite his shortcomings), being the agent of chaos that, unlike Pep, Klopp is far more comfortable with. But having the 4th (Szoboszlai) and the 8th (Mac Allister) most dribbled past players in the PL in your midfield is a problem. Especially when you're chasing City.
Arteta's men seem to be the most "changed" side compared to last season. Their 1.47 xG is significantly worse than last season's 1.83 xG. Their 0.72 xGA is what allows them to stay near the top of the table. They have played a lot of difficult games at home, so things may change in the foreseeable, but nevertheless, it is an impressive statistic at this level of football. And with Timber out with injury. One could argue that Rice's impact is more than obvious. This is what he brings to the table, first and foremost. On the other hand, Arsenal do seem to struggle with Havertz and his role on the pitch. I don't know why we haven't seen him as a false #9 more often. Arteta is still trying to figure out what his best midfield is going forward.
It will be interesting to see which path, Klopp's or Arteta's, will get closer to City. United, on the other hand, don't seem to have a point of reference for our season. Something to start from and then see in which areas we can focus on to see incremental improvements.
On a side note, because the love-in for one or the other component of McFred is still a thing, and it also affects the discussions about what we need in our midfield, i feel it's worth pointing out that the best sides defensively (xGA), the ones that are being threatened less than anybody else, are the two sides (among the big boys) who base their defending around possession and control through passing and movement. Arsenal and City.
