World Cup Betting Thread

Put a fiver on Argentina to win and Lukaku to be top scorer at 200/1. :wenger:
 
Danny Roberts said:
I wouldn't mind that as an outcome. Messi almost "deserves" to win but I can't see it happening.
Click to expand...
Yeah it would be a shame if he ends his career without winning the WC. It wouldn't diminish his career in any way but still it would be a miss. Also, I have the feeling that with Ronaldo winning and performing so well in 3 CLs and winning the Euros, its almost feels like its Messi's turn to show up now.
 
Revan said:
Even if chances of predicting each game are 80% (in reality, it is lower than it), chances of predicting all 64 of them would be 6 in a million.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure its 6 in 10m, or about 1 in about 1.6 million.

But yeah, 0.8 is incredibly high, even if you take it down to 0.7 (still optimistic) the odds suddenly become 1 in 8 billion.
 
King7Eric said:
Yeah it would be a shame if he ends his career without winning the WC. It wouldn't diminish his career in any way but still it would be a miss. Also, I have the feeling that with Ronaldo winning and performing so well in 3 CLs and winning the Euros, its almost feels like its Messi's turn to show up now.
Click to expand...

He usually does ok. Needs his teammates to show up!
 
slyadams said:
Pretty sure its 6 in 10m, or about 1 in about 1.6 million.

But yeah, 0.8 is incredibly high, even if you take it down to 0.7 (still optimistic) the odds suddenly become 1 in 8 billion.
Click to expand...

If you can pick winners with an 80% success rate just back them as singles. 60% is probably a push I reckon.
 
Done my pre tournament bets today they are....

Griezmann top scorer and Brazil/France/Germany to win
Werner top scorer and Germany or Brazil to win

Suarez, Giroud and Lukaku all to be their club teams top scorer. I.E Suarez to outscore all other Barcelona players at the world cup.
 
I'm looking for a bet to put on the first match day:

I'm currently thinking Under 2.5, Saudi Arabia +1 or maybe under 3.5.

I can see it being a cagey opener - perhaps 0-0 or 1-1
 
Blatzo said:
I'm looking for a bet to put on the first match day:

I'm currently thinking Under 2.5, Saudi Arabia +1 or maybe under 3.5.

I can see it being a cagey opener - perhaps 0-0 or 1-1
Click to expand...

I can see the Saudis ruining the party so Saudi +0.5 or +1 good at longish odds.
 
Any tips for good bets in the first couple of games? I’m considering Spain to beat Portugal at 1.95, how does that sound?
 
Macern said:
Any tips for good bets in the first couple of games? I’m considering Spain to beat Portugal at 1.95, how does that sound?
Click to expand...

Not good enough imo. Could see it being a cautious draw. Spain have been poor in all opening games since 2010 so generally they seem to be slow starters.

At first glance Saudi to score @ 2.20 looks interesting but I will probably avoid that game because of the corrupt feckers on both sides.

Morocco @ 2.35 seems like the standout option in the first two days.
 
Samid said:
Not good enough imo. Could see it being a cautious draw. Spain have been poor in all opening games since 2010 so generally they seem to be slow starters.

At first glance Saudi to score @ 2.20 looks interesting but I will probably avoid that game because of the corrupt feckers on both sides.

Morocco @ 2.35 seems like the standout option in the first two days.
Click to expand...
Cheers! 2.35 is quite decent, I think I’ll go for that
 
I'm tempted to back Russia/Saudi Arabia under 2.5 goals on day one, then (if it comes in) let that ride into an Uruguay/Morocco double on day two. Any thoughts?

Could get greedy and let that ride onto a France & Argentina double on day three, if they all come in you've turned £20 into £180~
 
I only ever bet during a tournament. I'll be honest, I don't really understand odds and stuff, not that interested.

I've stuck a fiver on Werner for top scorer and will use the other fiver in my account for in play.

I've only ever won one bet, that was in play for a 1-0 Portugal win in the Euros final. £45 win.
 
I have dutched Brazil and Argentina for combined odds of 3.55 (360€)

Other bets:

Columbia to reach the quarter-finals 240€ @ 3.00
Morocco to qualify for the knock-out stages 120€ @ 4.33
Morocco to reach the quarter-finals 80€ @ 15
Mexico to go out in R16 160€ @ 3.00
Croatia to reach the quarter-finals 240 @ 3.25

Still thinking about top goalscorer. Think Cavani (@26), Suarez (26) and Falcao (60!) are all value bets.
 
After repeatedly simulating the upcoming tournament, the scientists believe that Spain and not Brazil are in fact the favourites to lift the trophy - but only until the quarter-finals.

The way that their algorithm works means that the probability of a chain of events happening changes once previous events in the chain have been completed.
...
As soon as the algorithm is run again among the last eight, Germany becomes the most likely winner - something which the scientists say is accounted for by Germany having a more difficult group and first knockout stage.
Click to expand...

Using Machine Learning Techniques to Predict the world cup winner.
 
A lot of these machines and stats are BS IMO. Didn't one give Peru a better chance than England? I don't think any experts or bookies would agree and it's bookies and punters who are prepared to bet on it, not stats guys looking for publicity.
 
This is true. Computer models can definitely aide your betting decisions but high-liquidity efficient betting markets are the best tool for predicting future results. Pinnacle Sports' closing lines are ultra-efficient and the amount by which a pre-closing-market price beats the closing price provides an excellent prediction for the expected value of your bet. Meaning that if you beat the closing price (minus bookmaker margin) by 5% your long-term expected value will be almost exactly 5%.

That is why laugh whenever someone says things like (using this year's CL final) "Oh Real are definitely going to win this" or "I feel Liverpool will cause an upset" and then bet accordingly. Both are vague irrelevant statements. The closing price (1X2) was 2.35 - 3.72 - 3.06 so we can be pretty certain that the true probabilites of a Madrid win were 41.8%, a Liverpool win 32% and a draw 26.2% after 90 minutes.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
This is true. Computer models can definitely aide your betting decisions but high-liquidity efficient betting markets are the best tool for predicting future results. Pinnacle Sports' closing lines are ultra-efficient and the amount by which a pre-closing-market price beats the closing price provides an excellent prediction for the expected value of your bet. Meaning that if you beat the closing price (minus bookmaker margin) by 5% your long-term expected value will be almost exactly 5%.

That is why laugh whenever someone says things like (using this year's CL final) "Oh Real are definitely going to win this" or "I feel Liverpool will cause an upset" and then bet accordingly. Both are vague irrelevant statements. The closing price (1X2) was 2.35 - 3.72 - 3.06 so we can be pretty certain that the true probabilites of a Madrid win were 41.8%, a Liverpool win 32% and a draw 26.2% after 90 minutes.
Click to expand...

The market isn't 100% accurate but I take your point. And yup, when it comes to most punters' approach to betting there is no understanding of value but then if you're just in it for a bit of fun so be it.
 
Already spent a lot on plenty of outside tournament bets. Now onto the matches themselves.

Russia 2-0 for the opener.

Backed Al-Sahlawi for first scorer too simply because he trained with United the other month :lol:
 
Bet365 free live bet for Portugal vs Spain on Friday.
 
220 / Yellow cards 2.00 • 15.00 • 1.70 • 1.75 • 1.40
10 / Red cards 3.25 • 7.00 • 1.50 • 2.20 • 1.20
660 / Corners 1.50 • 15.00 • 2.80 • 1.30 • 2.20
161 / Goals 1.85 • 15.00 • 1.85 • 1.75 • 1.75

less • exactly • more • less or exactly • more or exactly

Any advices for these?

That's 3.44 yellows per game, 0.16 reds (or one in six games), 10.31 corners per game and 2.52 goals. Even allowed to combine them all but cards with each other.
 
I am on Werner for top scorer.
No other bets made yet.
Usually the first game is pretty tight so will likely go 0-0 for that one.
 
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Costa Rica, South Korea and Nigeria NOT winning a group game @ 11.74 (bet365)
Over 220 yellow cards with over 660 corners and 161 goals in whole of World Cup @ 8.81 (local)
 
Luis Suarez and Diego Costa under 2.5 goals and Antoine Griezmann and Junior Neymar under 3.5 goals at World Cup @ 10.68 (bet365)
 
Have gone for the William Hill promos:

Brazil to win the World Cup @5.00

Romelu Lukaku top goalscorer @17.00

For every game that Brazil win and for every goal that Lukaku scores in the tournament, I get a £5 free bet.
 
England v Belgium
Switzerland v Costa Rica
Serbia v Brazil
Nigeria v Argentina
South Korea v Germany
Spain v Morocco
Iran v Portugal
England v Panama
Germany v Sweden
Belgium v Tunisia
Brazil v Costa Rica
France v Peru
Portugal v Morocco
Germany v Mexico

@175.24
 
P-Nut0712 said:
How many people are out of this already? I expect to go out tomorrow as I've somehow backed Egypt to get a draw with Uruguay
Click to expand...

I bombed out of the Paddy Power one on the first day! :( Went against my instinct too.
 
Mrs Smoker said:
Good luck to you too. My stakes are low for those, so, if you have something nice on those, genuinely, good luck.
Click to expand...

Got Diego Costa to win a looot of money :D took a crazy longshot on Liverpool over City (6.00) + Costa at 41.00.. Nice and decent odds back then. Will probably end at 1-3 goals though..
 
Mrs Smoker said:
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Costa Rica, South Korea and Nigeria NOT winning a group game @ 11.74 (bet365)
Over 220 yellow cards with over 660 corners and 161 goals in whole of World Cup @ 8.81 (local)
Click to expand...

Iran, Costa Rica and Nigeria seem capable enough defensively that I think one should sneak a win on the counter.
 
NoPace said:
Iran, Costa Rica and Nigeria seem capable enough defensively that I think one should sneak a win on the counter.
Click to expand...

Iran could do it against Morocco at most, Nigeria maybe against Iceland, but Costa Rica is in quite the group...Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia. Tough.
 
Mrs Smoker said:
Iran could do it against Morocco at most, Nigeria maybe against Iceland, but Costa Rica is in quite the group...Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia. Tough.
Click to expand...

5 at the back might frustrate the Swiss or Serbs though, could see Costa Rica soaking up pressure and getting one on the break.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.