At least a domestic cup semi-final appearance, QF matchup in CL, and top 3 in the PL with a real title challenge into April and May.
The league will be much more competitive this year with Chelsea maturing domestically under Tuchel, Liverpool shouldn't be as underperforming for periods of time like last season, City is kind of up in the air because the transfer window isn't closed yet for them, and Leicester are very competitive under Rodgers.
United will not have an undefeated away record for too much longer, but their home record won't be as it was last year. So the points should balance out a bit, so that's a push.
I'm more interested in how the team continues to change during the 22/23 season. That will result in more potential player changes like Cavani, Pogba, DDG, maybe an older head like Matic or Mata leaving. And then Ole's position, considering if there's another clear bump in performance or if the team needs another tweak or two.