Westminster Politics 2024-2029

M16Red said:
There are a few round me, I can tell you that middle class people make up a larger number than people think.

The top ones, are different - Malborough college is near me, they are rich. But the idea that it's all like that is just wrong.

I did ask the single mother why she sent her son to private (partly because the school round here are top class) she just said I want better for him.

They both tried to talk me into sending mine to private prep school and I did really look at it, because of my dyslexia and the poor support I got in public.
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Of course that's the norm but it doesn't matter. It's clear by now the policy will have in the very best case a neutral impact but it's an early government solidifying favour with a section of the voter base, those wracked by hatred and jealousy of 'the rich'. Who 'the rich' are is irrelevant.

We're going to see a lot more of it in the next few months.
 
M16Red said:
There are a few round me, I can tell you that middle class people make up a larger number than people think.

The top ones, are different - Malborough college is near me, they are rich. But the idea that it's all like that is just wrong.

I did ask the single mother why she sent her son to private (partly because the school round here are top class) she just said I want better for him.

They both tried to talk me into sending mine to private prep school and I did really look at it, because of my dyslexia and the poor support I got in public.
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Both my kids go to a private school, not somewhere where the fees are extortionate and whilst there are some extremely rich families there where another £3k per child will be meaningless, mostly its made up of fairly regular people. There are also quite a number of them where grandparents help out with the fees a bit, or pay them in full, professions of the parents are things like police officers, a carpenter, a plumber, a teacher, someone who works in HR etc.
I know of 6 kids across 2 year groups who won't be coming back when VAT is added, but I don't know every kid/family.
I'd say it will have quite a big effect on the numbers of kids going back to state schools, although clearly my knowledge is anecdotal. My two will stay, but my wife will move up to working 5 days a week instead of 4 and we'll scale back on things like holidays. Its worth it for me as the state alternatives around here are not nearly as good (in my opinion) and that was what pushed us into looking at private schools in the first place.
 
11101 said:
Of course that's the norm but it doesn't matter. It's clear by now the policy will have in the very best case a neutral impact but it's an early government solidifying favour with a section of the voter base, those wracked by hatred and jealousy of 'the rich'. Who 'the rich' are is irrelevant.

We're going to see a lot more of it in the next few months.
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Hmm who to believe the IFS who say it'll bring in 1.3 billion net or angry 11101 with his anecdotal angry rants. Tough call

Wracked by hatred and jealousy :lol:
 
The Purley King said:
Both my kids go to a private school, not somewhere where the fees are extortionate and whilst there are some extremely rich families there where another £3k per child will be meaningless, mostly its made up of fairly regular people. There are also quite a number of them where grandparents help out with the fees a bit, or pay them in full, professions of the parents are things like police officers, a carpenter, a plumber, a teacher, someone who works in HR etc.
I know of 6 kids across 2 year groups who won't be coming back when VAT is added, but I don't know every kid/family.
I'd say it will have quite a big effect on the numbers of kids going back to state schools, although clearly my knowledge is anecdotal. My two will stay, but my wife will move up to working 5 days a week instead of 4 and we'll scale back on things like holidays. Its worth it for me as the state alternatives around here are not nearly as good (in my opinion) and that was what pushed us into looking at private schools in the first place.
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Recent independent estimates have put it anywhere from 10% in year 1 reducing yearly from there, to a 42% overall loss of pupils.

I know of one school that purely the threat of VAT tipped it over the edge, another that is in serious trouble for September, and two families of 7 kids who have already withdrawn from other schools. There's going to be loads more now they're finalising the law.
 
Smores said:
Hmm who to believe the IFS who say it'll bring in 1.3 billion net or angry 11101 with his anecdotal angry rants. Tough call

Wracked by hatred and jealousy :lol:
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https://www.ftadviser.com/pensions/...the-cost-of-labour-s-private-school-vat-plan/

Some figures in there. Others available if you read around the subject.

The IFS study was a puff piece for Labour and is widely known to be obsolete by now, but swallowed by those who have never set foot in a private school in their lives.
 
I enjoyed this part of the article, pretty funny.

According to the Institute of Fiscal Studies, there has been a 20 per cent real-terms increase in average private school fees since 2010. This has been driven by increases in inflation and employer pension contributions.
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I could possibly see VAT being charged on private healthcare next, especially given the surge in people seeking treatment outside the NHS.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
I could possibly see VAT being charged on private healthcare next, especially given the surge in people seeking treatment outside the NHS.
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As it should be I'd say. In the same way that people are seeking an advantage with private, bought-for education, so people are with private healthcare (although it'll be a far more emotive subject). A decent percentage of private healthcare takes place by NHS staff in NHS facilities, so the government should get its share.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
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Came here to post the same graph, it's from a paper looking at the type of households that send their children to private schools in the UK. It was written in 2021 written by the UCL Faculty of education and society. It also includes this paragraph.
In the paper we demonstrate quite how concentrated private school attendance is among the highest levels of household income (see image). The proportion of children attending private school is close to zero across the vast majority of the income distribution, and doesn’t rise above 10% of the cohort except among those with the top 5% of incomes. Only half of those in the top 1% send their kids to private school.
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And shows that the anecdotal stories here from @Ultimate Grib and @11101 about the majority of private school children being from middle class families is just not true.
 
Jericholyte2 said:
As it should be I'd say. In the same way that people are seeking an advantage with private, bought-for education, so people are with private healthcare (although it'll be a far more emotive subject). A decent percentage of private healthcare takes place by NHS staff in NHS facilities, so the government should get its share.
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It still benefits the NHS though in terms of overall numbers treated as some doctors / nurses are private only and there are private treatment centres. They'd have to be careful that it doesn't move too many back over at once. In reality, most are probably workplace insurance, so the cost would be on businesses.
 
Jericholyte2 said:
As it should be I'd say. In the same way that people are seeking an advantage with private, bought-for education, so people are with private healthcare (although it'll be a far more emotive subject). A decent percentage of private healthcare takes place by NHS staff in NHS facilities, so the government should get its share.
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I guess I agree, in that my starting position is that the same rate of VAT should apply to everything. I think all the exemptions — which are often technical, open to interpretation and endlessly litigated in court — create a needlessly complicated system and weird incentives.
 
So do we think the BoE will vote to finally cut the base interest rate by 0.25 today? Supposedly on a knife edges as whether they do or don't.

Though from what I've read, the Fed in the US are almost certainly going to do so this month, so might be some foreshadowing there.
 
Kaos said:
So do we think the BoE will vote to finally cut the base interest rate by 0.25 today? Supposedly on a knife edges as whether they do or don't.

Though from what I've read, the Fed in the US are almost certainly going to do so this month, so might be some foreshadowing there.
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They've just cut it

 
Big moment in the fact they have dropped then, but don't see much more movement in the next 6 months unless the economy starts to slide.

Inflation may have come down but cost of living still feels far to high.
 
Kaos said:
So do we think the BoE will vote to finally cut the base interest rate by 0.25 today? Supposedly on a knife edges as whether they do or don't.

Though from what I've read, the Fed in the US are almost certainly going to do so this month, so might be some foreshadowing there.
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The next Fed meeting isn't until next month (18 September). You can follow the rate-cut probabilities implied by the market here: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Currently, markets are pricing in an 86.5% chance the Fed will cut by 25 basis points in September. They also expect further cuts in November and December, with around a 65% probability.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
The next Fed meeting isn't until next month (18 September). You can follow the rate-cut probabilities implied by the market here: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Currently, markets are pricing in an 86.5% chance the Fed will cut by 25 basis points in September. They also expect further cuts in November and December, with around a 65% probability.
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Sorry I meant next month! Interesting that they're likely to follow through with more cuts in consequent months. I'd imagine the BoE would be tempted to mirror that trajectory (assuming no unfortunate inflation surprises).

Currently on a tracker mortgage, so will likely hold fire from remortgaging until next year at the earliest then.
 
F-Red said:
Which school? On a noisy topic like this, it would have been widely reported.
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Alton. It was fairly widely reported when it happened a month or so ago. It was on the edge anyway but the threat of VAT pushed it over and has dumped about 400 kids onto other schools in the vicinity.


MikeUpNorth said:
Interesting article on some of the tax rising options open to Labour without breaking its manifesto commitments: https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/08/01/rachel-reeves-raise-22bn-of-tax/
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The one not mentioned there is to further freeze income tax thresholds which may just about cover the 22bn on its own.
 
11101 said:
The one not mentioned there is to further freeze income tax thresholds which may just about cover the 22bn on its own.
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They’re already frozen until 2028. It’s already included in the Treasury budgets, sadly.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Hope you're spending that 5million wisely. There is no 20%.

Have been trying to stay out of this thread but having read the last few pages - the inability to understand data by some posters is astounding.

The problem is that their opinions are formed by this.
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To be honest, I really don't understand this seemingly endless fascination with what other people may or not be worth. It doesn't make any sense to me, but I can understand it might be something younger people are interested in.
 
M16Red said:
There are a few round me, I can tell you that middle class people make up a larger number than people think.

The top ones, are different - Malborough college is near me, they are rich. But the idea that it's all like that is just wrong.

I did ask the single mother why she sent her son to private (partly because the school round here are top class) she just said I want better for him.

They both tried to talk me into sending mine to private prep school and I did really look at it, because of my dyslexia and the poor support I got in public.
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Middle class people?
 
The Boy said:
Came here to post the same graph, it's from a paper looking at the type of households that send their children to private schools in the UK. It was written in 2021 written by the UCL Faculty of education and society. It also includes this paragraph.

And shows that the anecdotal stories here from @Ultimate Grib and @11101 about the majority of private school children being from middle class families is just not true.
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Can you get statistics for 5-11 so we can see where the dial moves on that? Prep school children.

What you need to understand is that the top 5% earn £87k+ in a year as a household while middle classes can earn up to £60k which is a very small difference between the two when you consider 2-3 kids in private education.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
They’re already frozen until 2028. It’s already included in the Treasury budgets, sadly.
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Theyve accounted for 40b to 2028 but apparently freezing them beyond that will give them more that they can slot into the budgets before the next election.
 
Ultimate Grib said:
Can you get statistics for 5-11 so we can see where the dial moves on that? Prep school children.

What you need to understand is that the top 5% earn £87k+ in a year as a household while middle classes can earn up to £60k which is a very small difference between the two when you consider 2-3 kids in private education.
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To the bolded, no, do it yourself, I am not your google monkey!

You said "Your view of private schools is in fact elitist. The majority of them are full of children from middle classes and have fees which are on par with nursery costs for the region." That's clearly not true, it's pointless now saying, let's just look at prep schools.

To your second para, what you need to understand is that the difference between 60k and 87k is 27 grand which is a huge amount of money, unless of course you are among the 5 percent of highest earners in the country, then I guess it might be pocket change.
 
Buster15 said:
Middle class people?
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Reading this thread, she wasn't middle class.

Ultimate Grib said:
Can you get statistics for 5-11 so we can see where the dial moves on that? Prep school children.

What you need to understand is that the top 5% earn £87k+ in a year as a household while middle classes can earn up to £60k which is a very small difference between the two when you consider 2-3 kids in private education.
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As a household.. 87k... top 5%, no way that is right for 2024?
 
Buster15 said:
Middle class people?
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I can just about remember as a young child overhearing an uncle of mine talking about 'the middle class people', and for some reason I though he was referring to everyone who lived in the middle of England and I held that belief until eventual a helpful school friend told me that was 'bonkers'.
Strange how things you overhear (and out of context) can influence your thinking :confused:

Seems to be happening to lots of people nowadays.... young or old ;)
 
11101 said:
Alton. It was fairly widely reported when it happened a month or so ago. It was on the edge anyway but the threat of VAT pushed it over and has dumped about 400 kids onto other schools in the vicinity.
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I think you're overstating VAT for the convenience of discussion and suit your own narrative, we've debunked that already in the general election thread. The school was that poorly run financially, even despite having to hike fees from £3600 in 2018 to £6300 in 2025. 75% increase in 7 years. There were anecdotal views on the thread below saying that they struggled with enrolments back in 2021, long before any 'threat' of VAT.

 
Ultimate Grib said:
Can you get statistics for 5-11 so we can see where the dial moves on that? Prep school children.

What you need to understand is that the top 5% earn £87k+ in a year as a household while middle classes can earn up to £60k which is a very small difference between the two when you consider 2-3 kids in private education.
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The Boy said:
To the bolded, no, do it yourself, I am not your google monkey!

You said "Your view of private schools is in fact elitist. The majority of them are full of children from middle classes and have fees which are on par with nursery costs for the region." That's clearly not true, it's pointless now saying, let's just look at prep schools.

To your second para, what you need to understand is that the difference between 60k and 87k is 27 grand which is a huge amount of money, unless of course you are among the 5 percent of highest earners in the country, then I guess it might be pocket change.
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I don't really are that much, you seem passionate enough to quote statistics while I quote real life form what I see at our school.
M16Red said:
Reading this thread, she wasn't middle class.



As a household.. 87k... top 5%, no way that is right for 2024?
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Yes it's bonkers.
M16Red said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/2013/newsspec_5093/index.stm

Just encase anyone is wondering what class they are, not that it matters. Classes are a horrible thing.
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Established middle class. Why are a couple of words so horrible? It doesn't actually mean anything its just words.
 
Ultimate Grib said:
I don't really are that much, you seem passionate enough to quote statistics while I quote real life form what I see at our school.

Yes it's bonkers.

Established middle class. Why are a couple of words so horrible? It doesn't actually mean anything its just words.
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I think economic class is another way to label groups of people.

Once you start labeling groups the sweeping statements are not far away.
Eplel said:
Pensioners fecked this country raw for decades. I'm having a hard time feeling sorry for them as a group.
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Ultimate Grib said:
I don't really are that much, you seem passionate enough to quote statistics while I quote real life form what I see at our school.
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:lol: "how dare you use statistical evidence to argue against my anectodal evidence."
 
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