Venezuelan election on July 28th

There is something different in the air this time. And I don't understand. If Maduro allows somewhat regular elections, he is a dead man walking, prison or exiled
 
You have to be pretty incompetent to not win an election you can manipulate. These guys have been doing it for ages so they have proven they know what they're doing, I don't understand how the opposition have any kind of confidence.
 
maniak said:
You have to be pretty incompetent to not win an election you can manipulate. These guys have been doing it for ages so they have proven they know what they're doing, I don't understand how the opposition have any kind of confidence.
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“Can manipulate” can mean different things though. Propaganda, intimidation etc are one thing that Maduro is a master of. But as far as I understand the actual votes are still counted correctly in Venezuela and the real opposition candidates are still allowed to stand (though not all of course as the most popular was banned).

Now, in this situation you can of course still use other methods and win (like he did in 2013 and 2018), but you have either be at least somewhat popular (as he was in 2013) or divide opposition and force low turnout (as in 2018). None of the two is true in 2024.

There are some dictators that have a well-oiled system of vote rigging and not even allowing opposition candidates to stand. For them it is in fact hard not to win election and even if they lose power it is rather via coup etc.

But it looks like Maduro will have to actually somehow rig the votes or just declare elections invalid or just announce his victory despite losing on votes. It is a huge step (basically going full blown dictatorship) which might work of course. But it will be a lot more difficult and risky.

In my home country, Belarus, Lukashenka had a very advanced vote rigging system which worked like a clock and gave him like 15-20 percentage points on top of his usual 50-60. But even he came close to losing power in 2020 once he got 30% and announced that he got 80%. Maduro does not have it.
 
I hope is not hope what it kills you. Seems they are thinkimg there is a chance
 
The rest is politics did a bit of a summary of Venezuela. Quite a sad country really.
 
Sad. Will people accept this "result"?
 
The tragedy is that, many Western-living "progressives" secretly support likes of Maduro, Khamenei and such, because they perceive them as "Anti-American Imperialism" axis.

Venezuela's fall from grace (similar to ours in Iran) is tragic. A country with so much natural wealth...

My best friend's wife is Venezuelan, she was a student leader against Chavez and had to run away and seeking refugee...My mate says she's completely distraught. What could be the solution ??
 
I dont know why i had any hope, to be honest.

I think that Maduro himseld would not mind to call it quits but he knows that he is done for it. Or dead or prison, so his colleagues. They need to keep going like any other dictator
 
It's always the hope that gets you. Ridiculously flagrant.

Will be interesting to see how the opposition responds. Protests?
 
Any chances on this blowing over? Hard to see what options the opposition has. Status quo may just very well continue.
 
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