To some extent, it's started already. The speech in Arizona was great, and the State of the Union is on Tuesday. Both could help give him a springboard into the re-election campaign. Right now, there's no Republican standing out.
US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
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The Arizona speech definately had that feel to it, his communications staff have done a very poor job in the last two years - he doesn't do particularly well behind a podium either in terms of projecting a message with confidence but give him a few thousand people to energise and he will deliver.
I was just thinking this, if no Republican builds up a lead in the early primaries we could be talking about no Republican nominee for possibly 18 months yet whilst Obama can parade around singing 'yes we can' and democrats in Congress can divert the narrative onto issues tricky for Republicans.
I do find it bizarre that Palin continues to be talked up though it was her presence in the final weeks of the campaign that coincided with Obama pulling away completely in a very tight race that had McCain ahead at the time of the conventions. Obama recognised the importance of the evolving economic situation while McCain created a monster who only proved to be problematic.
And to continue with the freakshow, we move onto the story that refuses to go away - a Trump run. There is something wrong with his policy stance that doesn't seem right - he wants to get into China's face, he wants to impose a 25% tariff on all Chinese goods, which as a billionaire businessman he must see is nonsensical and would be disastrous.
I understand there is one school of thought stateside that Trump is serving as a case study - seeing how far a billionaire of national standing could get using primarily his own resources, on behalf of Michael Bloomberg which has some merit to it.
Saying that, Trump is just about outlandish enough to actually be genuine in believing the views he is voicing.
I understand there is one school of thought stateside that Trump is serving as a case study - seeing how far a billionaire of national standing could get using primarily his own resources, on behalf of Michael Bloomberg which has some merit to it.
Saying that, Trump is just about outlandish enough to actually be genuine in believing the views he is voicing.
People often say things before they are President, that they dont necessarily carryout as the President*
*see Barry Obama
*see Barry Obama
What such matters are on your mind?
Good start to the new year by Obama. First the Arizona speech, high profile visit from China, and State of the Union coming up. The Republican House will actually help him in that he can now use their obstructionism to his political advantage. Its what will get him reelected.
I'm interested to see if the Congress will sit together rather than apart. It's been mentioned by a Representative from Colorado, I think, and would be pretty awesome to see. Ultimately, I think there can be some amount of compromise and accomplishments over the next two years.
It's my preference for Congress to be at least partially opposed to the President in terms of party because it helps foster debate and prevents one party from steamrolling through policies. We'll see how it goes though.
It's my preference for Congress to be at least partially opposed to the President in terms of party because it helps foster debate and prevents one party from steamrolling through policies. We'll see how it goes though.
As Mr Cameron has demonstrated in London, when you have to deal with the opposition as a prerequesite it frees you from obligations to the least centrist factions of your own party.
Agree with this part. The post election rhetoric from the repubs sounds almost the same as how the dems sounded in 2010.
The Republicans are now beginning to grind into motion, though as of yet no serious candidates have declared their candidacy for the Republican nomination. There are however a few individuals of note who have formed 'exploratory committees' which is the first step to begin running, very, very few people that form them end up decided not to.
Tim Pawlenty - Former Governor of Minnesota - he is a person that has been mentioned for a couple of years as a potential runner, he is a quite atypical Republican and in polling is a long way off the Republican frontrunners.
Buddy Roemer - Former Governor of Louisiana - this was an expected announcement, especially so as he is fighting on a 'take the money out of politics' platform which is never going to go down well with large swathes of the Republican base.
Newt Gingrich - Former Speaker of the House of Representatives - forget Sarah Palin, this is the candidate to really be afraid of. Gingrinch was the all-powerful individual in a Republican held Congress that tried to make Clinton's life a misery by trying to impeach him and force two government shutdowns - it didn't exactly work as no president has ever had an approval rating as high as Clinton on leaving office. He is an absolutely hard core, tea party nutter (https://www.redcafe.net/f13/gingrich-america-danger-becoming-atheist-islamic-country-324709/), whilst Palin may be a bit fluffy, he certainly isn't. He is currently polling off the front runners but he is prominent enough to possibly drag the support and money in.
Tim Pawlenty - Former Governor of Minnesota - he is a person that has been mentioned for a couple of years as a potential runner, he is a quite atypical Republican and in polling is a long way off the Republican frontrunners.
Buddy Roemer - Former Governor of Louisiana - this was an expected announcement, especially so as he is fighting on a 'take the money out of politics' platform which is never going to go down well with large swathes of the Republican base.
Newt Gingrich - Former Speaker of the House of Representatives - forget Sarah Palin, this is the candidate to really be afraid of. Gingrinch was the all-powerful individual in a Republican held Congress that tried to make Clinton's life a misery by trying to impeach him and force two government shutdowns - it didn't exactly work as no president has ever had an approval rating as high as Clinton on leaving office. He is an absolutely hard core, tea party nutter (https://www.redcafe.net/f13/gingrich-america-danger-becoming-atheist-islamic-country-324709/), whilst Palin may be a bit fluffy, he certainly isn't. He is currently polling off the front runners but he is prominent enough to possibly drag the support and money in.
The present front runner appears to be Mitt Romney but as this is only the phoney war that doesn't carry much weight. This time in the electoral cycle four years ago when the campaign was already active the clear front runners were Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani.
Pawlenty knows his only route to the White House is via the Vice Presidency. He comes off as moderate, (which he really isn't, except by comparison to the more frothy TP-types,) and figures that a strong enough showing means that whatever far-right type wins will have to pick a theoretically-moderate running mate.
Calling Roemer a serious candidate is stretching things a bit. He's got no money (by design, admittedly) his conservative credentials are shaky, ("shaky" in this case being defined as: He vetoed a bill that would have banned abortion in cases of incest. Conservatives are lovely people,) and he's against ethanol subsidies (death in Iowa).
Gingrich isn't quite as dumb as Palin, but he's also not nearly as likable. He tried to be the moral crusader against Clinton, which rather failed in that not only did he fail to remove Clinton from office, but details of his own less-than-wonderful personal life surfaced, such as the fact that while his first wife was in the hospital, recovering from cancer surgery, Gingrich cheated on her. It's also alleged that she was still in the hospital when he began divorce proceedings, though that's a bit muddled. Gingrich is a real contender to win the Tea Party-dominated GOP primary, but I don't see any chance of him becoming President.
Romney's got a shot at getting the nomination, but he's got a lot of issues both in the primary and the general. His Mormonism helps him in the west, but hurts him in the South, where most of the GOP's delegates are. He's perceived as a flip-flopper. The health program he implemented in Massachusetts during his administration as Governor is incredibly close to what was passed last year by the Democrats in Washington, (aka "Obamacare"). His conservativism is suspect to teabaggers.
Calling Roemer a serious candidate is stretching things a bit. He's got no money (by design, admittedly) his conservative credentials are shaky, ("shaky" in this case being defined as: He vetoed a bill that would have banned abortion in cases of incest. Conservatives are lovely people,) and he's against ethanol subsidies (death in Iowa).
Gingrich isn't quite as dumb as Palin, but he's also not nearly as likable. He tried to be the moral crusader against Clinton, which rather failed in that not only did he fail to remove Clinton from office, but details of his own less-than-wonderful personal life surfaced, such as the fact that while his first wife was in the hospital, recovering from cancer surgery, Gingrich cheated on her. It's also alleged that she was still in the hospital when he began divorce proceedings, though that's a bit muddled. Gingrich is a real contender to win the Tea Party-dominated GOP primary, but I don't see any chance of him becoming President.
Romney's got a shot at getting the nomination, but he's got a lot of issues both in the primary and the general. His Mormonism helps him in the west, but hurts him in the South, where most of the GOP's delegates are. He's perceived as a flip-flopper. The health program he implemented in Massachusetts during his administration as Governor is incredibly close to what was passed last year by the Democrats in Washington, (aka "Obamacare"). His conservativism is suspect to teabaggers.
Jeb Bush will turn up eventually for sure.
Barber will also run.
btw Excal Pawlenty wont even win Minnesota. We know too much about the turd.
Barber will also run.
btw Excal Pawlenty wont even win Minnesota. We know too much about the turd.
The Bush name is still toxic to 60-70% of the country.
By serious I meant not some idiot with lunatic ideas or running around in a chicken suit, the US equivalent of a candidate representing the Monster Raving Loony Party.
Give the Democrats their dues over the last couple of years as they continue to function as a unified party - the Republicans on the otherhand have become far more factionalised than is realistically viable. I struggle to see how any Republican firstly wins the nomination and then beats Obama, you would need someone like Giuliani to go against him but I have no idea how you would get someone very moderate like him through the primaries.
Give the Democrats their dues over the last couple of years as they continue to function as a unified party - the Republicans on the otherhand have become far more factionalised than is realistically viable. I struggle to see how any Republican firstly wins the nomination and then beats Obama, you would need someone like Giuliani to go against him but I have no idea how you would get someone very moderate like him through the primaries.
Will you vote for Michelle Bachmann if she runs?
Bachmann = Palin with a double dose of crazy and without the semi-specious "executive experience" claim.
Is the United States ready for another presidential election swamping the airwaves for 18 months? The sense I get is that you are too diseffected right now to take well to that.
It doesn't really go into overdrive until we start to get into primary season. And once the nomination is decided (usually doesn't take the GOP to fall in *coughlockstepcough* behind someone), it fades into the background again until convention time.
Political junkies and other types who are interested in it will be able to overdose on it, of course, but for the sort of people who want to actively avoid that sort of thing, it's not hard to do so.
Political junkies and other types who are interested in it will be able to overdose on it, of course, but for the sort of people who want to actively avoid that sort of thing, it's not hard to do so.
So Iowa to Super Tuesday and then the conventions to election day, fair enough.
Yeah, and the parties have both cracked down on "primary creep" where the 2008 Iowa Caucus almost happened in 2007, so we're back to the first four going in February and Super Tuesday on March 6. With the GOP using winner-take-all delegate distribution, their primaries are rarely meaningful after that.
Palin-Bachmann '12! 
Honestly though, there's no Republican who can seriously challenge Obama at the moment. It'll be even worse if the Tea-baggers shut down Congress over the budget. The primaries will ensure that Romney isn't the final nominee unless the South decides that Mormons aren't all that insane and evil.
Hopefully, the conservative obsession with "purity" of conservatism kills the tea-baggers. They're trying to cast out anyone who isn't conservative enough, which makes any type of compromise impossible.
Honestly though, there's no Republican who can seriously challenge Obama at the moment. It'll be even worse if the Tea-baggers shut down Congress over the budget. The primaries will ensure that Romney isn't the final nominee unless the South decides that Mormons aren't all that insane and evil.
Hopefully, the conservative obsession with "purity" of conservatism kills the tea-baggers. They're trying to cast out anyone who isn't conservative enough, which makes any type of compromise impossible.
Is Trump that arrogant he actually thinks he could pull it off?
Whatever the end of this sentence is, the answer is yes.
It is not the first time he has put it out that he is considering running.
There are only two policies of his that I am aware of - he is against all gay marriages and unions, and he wants to slap a 25% tariff on Chinese goods.
25%?
That would kill our economy, they're our fastest growing market and supplier
That would kill our economy, they're our fastest growing market and supplier
I recall watching him say it on CNN, and Piers Morgan come back at him saying large swathes of the building materials of his recent projects came from China.
I would if she let me rattle her arse
She looks like some hot MILF eyetalian actress.
Even though Obama is having massive problems there still isn't a repub name that will make a serious challenge at this point. Ron Paul will get a little more attention this time but still microscopic relative to what he'd need.
Did someone say Michelle Bachmann ?? 
Yes that's Olbermann snickering in the background.
Yes that's Olbermann snickering in the background.
A lot of Super Tuesday states (including California) are pushing their primaries later to save costs
Jeb Bush would give Obama quite a challenge. Despite having the name, he's quite pragmatic (as Republicans go) and has a good reputation as being a moderate.
Unless we're going to broaden the definition of that term to "people who admit the President was in fact born in America," there's no way Jeb Bush is a moderate. By his own positions, he wants to increase Drug War spending, increase mandatory minimum sentencing, supported the gutting of Chapter 7 bankruptcy, referred to gay rights and feminist organizations as "modern victim movements", supports abstinence-only sex education (proven to have no discernible effect), wants to eliminate automobile emissions testing, favors the "right of industry" to "self-audit" its own environmental impact, (i.e. let corporations pollute all they want and we'll trust they're being good boys,) favored the right of states to "import" agricultural workers (while simultaneously insisting the repatriation efforts were solely the province of the federal government), and wanted to eliminate AFDC.
You can dredge comparable crap like this up for just about any Republican.
As Republicans go, Jeb has a lot of moderate appeal, as opposed to say his Brother. He's much closer to his father in this regard.
the Hispanics are finally voting as the Dems saving several senate seats in the West proved. Along with the Blacks that is a significant voting block for the Dems....and it is growing.
That's all true but in the end its still going to come down to a few key states.
Obama starts with Cali, Illinois, and NY in the bag, where as the Republicans will once again dominate the south.
Obama will probably not carry Florida, Virginia, Indiana and Ohio this time and depending on who his opponent is, might have a fight on his hands to retain Pennsylvania. His challenge is to retain one of the southern states which would be a massive blow to the GOP - that state might well be North Carolina where the DNC is holding its convention next year. That's all based on today's voter sentiment. Obviously things could change dramatically in 19 months, but as the economy gradually recovers and Obama gets back to his strengths as an effective campaigner, he should win about 50 or so electoral votes provided its Romney he faces.
Obama starts with Cali, Illinois, and NY in the bag, where as the Republicans will once again dominate the south.
Obama will probably not carry Florida, Virginia, Indiana and Ohio this time and depending on who his opponent is, might have a fight on his hands to retain Pennsylvania. His challenge is to retain one of the southern states which would be a massive blow to the GOP - that state might well be North Carolina where the DNC is holding its convention next year. That's all based on today's voter sentiment. Obviously things could change dramatically in 19 months, but as the economy gradually recovers and Obama gets back to his strengths as an effective campaigner, he should win about 50 or so electoral votes provided its Romney he faces.
Pennsylvania.always looks iffy for the Dems but usually comes through in the end. They have enough infrastructure on the ground to get the vote out.
I agree with your analysis on the other states. I think NC will go with Obama.
It will not be a landslide this time round but the improving economy will see him through whoever he faces.
I agree with your analysis on the other states. I think NC will go with Obama.
It will not be a landslide this time round but the improving economy will see him through whoever he faces.
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