But they're going to clean up politics?
UK General Election 2015 | Conservatives win with an overall majority
- Thread starter langster
- Start date
But they're going to clean up politics?
You can get 11/1 on a Conservative majority, I think I may have to scale back my hopes of another 1992 surprise. If Farage genuinely wanted the best for the UK he would have dissolved UKIP when Cameron agreed to put a referendum in his manifesto - if people genuinely want to get out of the EU then they have to vote Conservative.
Problem is that the centre as moved to the right, Ed's moved a bit left but not nearly as far as he'd like to if he could get a mandate.
I agree.
The Telegraph have been sending some emails out
BTW, that is in essence why I have a feeling Labour are going to disappoint today, and why undecideds may ultimately plump for the Tories at the last minute. The centre has been drifting to the right for as long as I can remember - certainly since Thatcher - while Labour is now drifting to the left, and people can see MilliE is actually to the left of his party. Even if the drift is only slight, it still opens the gap between them and the public, and there is always the worry in the back of peoples' minds that once in power he will feel liberated to lurch further left than he dared during the election.
4/1 on there being another election in 2015 could be a reasonable bet.
Edit: In fact the odds on that have plummeted from when I last looked.
Edit: In fact the odds on that have plummeted from when I last looked.
The Telegraph have been sending some emails out
Oh dear, first the nasty defamations from the Murdoch papers, then the Sun essentially indirectly bribing people to vote Tory, and now this.
Right wing media seems genuinely desperate and shitting it at the prospect of a Labour coalition introducing controls on media ownership.
In principle, yes.
What tends to happen however is that parties will start the frantic negotiations behind closed doors the second the election results are announced. Even if the Tories end up having the most votes and seats, that wouldn't stop the labour camp for jumping straight into negotiations before waiting for Cameron to fail to build a coalition.
Its going to be an interesting couple of days, that's for sure.
Latest polls seem to be suggesting a late, albeit small swing towards Labour, cancelling out the Tory lead from earlier in the week. Going by the projected seats I just don't see the Tories being able to cobble together a working majority so Cameron will be relying on the projections/polls being way off due to the "silent Tory" effect.
I missed that, what are you referring to? I think the right-leaning press are also genuinely afraid of the damage to the economy and the ideological tax increases that a LabLib or SNP/Labour coalition would deliver.
Are there not rules against those helping with polling wearing badges supporting a political party? Never voted in person before and was a bit surprised by that.
I can't believe it but I'm actually toying with voting Labour. My constituency is a semi-marginal - Tories won by a healthy margin last time but that wasn't expected. Might be a lot tighter this time around. I had a long old think last night and decided definitely Green, today I just want that lightbulb head motherfecker gone! Still a few hours before I finish work, i'll probably flip-flop several times
Who's your MP?
Possibly - I think Murdoch is a bit more scared about increased regulation though
They've changed the rules there - as long as you're queuing at 10, you can vote.
You wouldn't expect anything less from non-dom exiles the Barclay brothers, would you? Same for Daily fail. The Sun just support whoever they can get closest to then claim they won it..The Telegraph have been sending some emails out
Rob Wilson, Reading East.
If Google images is anything to go buy I can see why he's popular...
This story a few days ago:
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/05/sun-criticised-offer-to-pay-tory-good-news-stories
Right-leaning press are probably just terrified that their 80% monopoly in the media might be challenged by a Labour coalition government. No doubt Darth Murdoch has been nervously and frantically ordering his rags to pump out the usual fear-mongering spewl on overtime.
I'm actually thinking the opposite and that the 'end to cuts' rhetoric will kick in at the back of people's minds.
They're probably just party workers, rather than polling staff. They usually have a few party types hanging around- sometimes they ask you who you voted for and if they can have your used polling card to gather your details for their databases.
Ah, that makes sense.
SNP aren't going to be in a coalition full stop.They aren't going to repeat '79 and bring a Labour gov down.
I don't suppose they've recruited extra volunteers for marshalling duties, so hopefully there is a low demand polling station nearby who can lend a hand if necessary.
There is more to news media than print variety,would you say that the key broadcasters are also of a predominantly right-leaning disposition?
Not right away perhaps, but it would be advantageous to any second referendum were the Prime Minister to be a Tory, and particularly if said individual has been playing on EVEL/English concerns. Sturgeon isn't in this for the good of Westminster, her endgame is one in which it becomes just another foreign parliament.
They are also not going to renew trident - which could bring the government down?
Nah, the Tories have to vote for trident, so it'll sail through. The SNP have pretty much said they won't vote for it but wouldn't stop supporting Labour just because of it.
I'm not sure because to get lib backing it has to be 3 subs... tories are insisting on 4 so I can see a clear reason for them to vote against if its a 3 sub proposal.
Why is Lib Dem backing needed?
An A-Z list of estimated declaration times:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/05/06/election-2015-declaration-times_n_7220684.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/05/06/election-2015-declaration-times_n_7220684.html
they insisted the decision was put back to join the last coalition - so I suspect they would want some consession to join another coalition and apparently it cant be delayed any further without having a several year gap with no nukes (like with the aircraft carrier)
Ah, sorry, I was thinking in Labour minority terms.
Odds have shortened slightly today on Cameron to hang on.
its all very strange (according to the odds on odds checker)
conservatives massive favourites for the most seets
cameron now odds on with all bookies to be next PM
but Labour minority government still the most likely government
6am for mine. Been Labour stronghold since the constituency was created in the 80s so I'll be surprised if anyone but Labour gets in this time around.
If there's a hung parliament as people expect does the case for PR become irresistible? FPTP justifiable if it delivers strong single party government. If it doesn't twice in a row does it look like it no longer works, strengthening the case for something more proportional? At least then the coalition that won would be more representative.
Could go either way. If we end up with a situation where the Government isn't able to make the kind of decisions it needs to get things done, that may lessen people's appetite for making it the status quo. On the other hand if the Government ends up more moderate and constructive, people might want more.
Oxymoron?
I just think if you accept the future will invariably involve coalitions the whole case for FPTP disappears. That's the ideological side of it. On a practical level, if large parties need small parties to form a government this time, small parties will have leverage to force the issue which is in all their long term interests - whether that's the LibDems, Greens or UKIP.
Liberal Democrats NOT winning here.