UK General Election - 12th December 2019 | Con 365, Lab 203, LD 11, SNP 48, Other 23 - Tory Majority of 80
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Yes please, but even if they don't I can still see remain motivated folk voting for them in situations where it doesn't look like anyone else can seriously challenge.
There's no renegotiation either - apart from leaving NI in the CU and SM.
The never-ending story.
They are too busy having IVF treatment to have babies.
I think Labour have an increasingly alright chance of doing well despite how poorly they've handled Brexit for the most part.
Polling already has them establishing comfortable leads over the Lib Dems again. Swinson isn't a particularly good or inspiring leader (much like Corbyn to be fair) and the fact their party is increasingly being made up of Tory defects like distort any message or platform they try to put across based on social justice and anything beyond Brexit...which Labour have been stronger on over the past couple of weeks anyway. Plus the extremity of the Tories in the past week or so makes Corbyn look moderate by comparison...accusations he's a Marxist hell-bent on destroying and uprooting democracy seem a bit silly when he's most decidedly not the one kicking out respected MP's who've been in the party since before Sir Alex Ferguson had even managed East Stirling.
Any Brexit delay will bolster Farage enough to dent Boris. The Tories are facing a wipeout in Scotland which will automatically take about 10-13 seats off them and hand a decent initiative to the Remain side. McDonnell has been increasingly conciliatory to the SNP on independence (albeit in a remarkably muddled way) because Labour are aware the SNP will probably be back to 50+ seats and that the two parties will have to work together, perhaps with a Lib Dem influence as well...who'll fall short of their new heightened expectations, but who'll show significant improvement all the same and perhaps hit 25-30 seats, potentially taking some from the Tories in the SE.
Polling already has them establishing comfortable leads over the Lib Dems again. Swinson isn't a particularly good or inspiring leader (much like Corbyn to be fair) and the fact their party is increasingly being made up of Tory defects like distort any message or platform they try to put across based on social justice and anything beyond Brexit...which Labour have been stronger on over the past couple of weeks anyway. Plus the extremity of the Tories in the past week or so makes Corbyn look moderate by comparison...accusations he's a Marxist hell-bent on destroying and uprooting democracy seem a bit silly when he's most decidedly not the one kicking out respected MP's who've been in the party since before Sir Alex Ferguson had even managed East Stirling.
Any Brexit delay will bolster Farage enough to dent Boris. The Tories are facing a wipeout in Scotland which will automatically take about 10-13 seats off them and hand a decent initiative to the Remain side. McDonnell has been increasingly conciliatory to the SNP on independence (albeit in a remarkably muddled way) because Labour are aware the SNP will probably be back to 50+ seats and that the two parties will have to work together, perhaps with a Lib Dem influence as well...who'll fall short of their new heightened expectations, but who'll show significant improvement all the same and perhaps hit 25-30 seats, potentially taking some from the Tories in the SE.
You have the power, do it.
Would be interesting to see how many seats people think each party will get.
Seems the Lib Dems are ditching the facade that they're all about stopping Brexit and are stepping aside in Rory Stewart's constituency.
Be happy with either Labour or Lib Dem (Not likely to happen) Just to finish the Tories bastards off, I'm sick of them.
Any suggestions for the most appropriate way to spoil my ballot?
After years of proclaiming their lauding of Tories at People's Vote events was purely because they opposed Brexit.
Unfortunately I don’t think it will.
No. 10 not confident of a majority.
http://news.sky.com/story/boris-joh...right-polling-seen-by-no-10-suggests-11805584
http://news.sky.com/story/boris-joh...right-polling-seen-by-no-10-suggests-11805584
A conservative + brexit alliance polls about the same before and after at just over 40%... With fptp they could still do very well
though you would expect farrage would have a bigger influence / say in matters after 31st and more of the seats be contested by brexit MP's than in an alliance before 31st
Was discussed on Fareed Zakaria GPS yesterday. They would need to bank on Labour's vote in the north collapsing.
Don’t think this election will be about party loyalty, rather a character judgment on Boris vs Corbyn and leave vs remain/deal
Those views would be more interesting as a means of projection.
No 10 lying and journalists eating it up. Who would have thought.
More polls!
Nigel Farage's Brexit Party 'want free run at 90 seats in proposed General Election pact with Tories'
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/pol...posed-election-pact-with-tories-a4233681.html
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/pol...posed-election-pact-with-tories-a4233681.html
No chance the tories do that. If the brexit party really want brexit they'd do the opposite.
Farage is desperate for a pact I suspect because without one it will be similar to UKIP. A fair few votes but very few seats. I'd be surprised if they got any.
Yeah true. The tories want power. They don't want farage muscling in and getting up to 90 seats.
Saw this in the Guardian about Labour’s ideas for their manifesto.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-pledge-to-create-most-radical-manifesto-ever
Still don’t get how a four day week works. It’s straightforward if you’re a poncy middle class desk worker, like me. A four day week is almost certainly a good thing. But what about places like hotels and shops that have to be open a set amount of hours? If you mandate that people working a five day week now work a four day week and get the same amount of pay, then to keep your store open the same amount of hours would increase your salary bill by up to 25%. That would close my business down. Assuming that isn’t the plan, how does this work?
The green targets is a good idea, albeit fairly limited. Future governments can just change the target if they disagree. Good statement of intent though.
Abolishing private schools feels like a mistake from en electoral perspective. Not anything to do with the schools themselves, but like fox hunting, its a disproportionately emotive issue that will be take oxygen away from other issues. Wouldn’t surprise me if this became the most talked about issue after Brexit, with pitchforks from both sides. Besides the way to get rid of the private sector is simply to make the public sector better than it. That goes for all things, including schooling.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-pledge-to-create-most-radical-manifesto-ever
Still don’t get how a four day week works. It’s straightforward if you’re a poncy middle class desk worker, like me. A four day week is almost certainly a good thing. But what about places like hotels and shops that have to be open a set amount of hours? If you mandate that people working a five day week now work a four day week and get the same amount of pay, then to keep your store open the same amount of hours would increase your salary bill by up to 25%. That would close my business down. Assuming that isn’t the plan, how does this work?
The green targets is a good idea, albeit fairly limited. Future governments can just change the target if they disagree. Good statement of intent though.
Abolishing private schools feels like a mistake from en electoral perspective. Not anything to do with the schools themselves, but like fox hunting, its a disproportionately emotive issue that will be take oxygen away from other issues. Wouldn’t surprise me if this became the most talked about issue after Brexit, with pitchforks from both sides. Besides the way to get rid of the private sector is simply to make the public sector better than it. That goes for all things, including schooling.
The most successful political party in modern history isn't going to give up 90 seats to fecking Farage.
Farage is 90% about himself and 10% about politics. While he’d love to get in Westminster to satisfy the self publicising part of himself, the bit of him that cares about political impact won’t care about winning seats. In order to stop the Brexit Party winning seats the Tories will ape their policies. So from his perspective, job done either way.
BBC News - Brexit: Nigel Farage election pact proposal rejected by No 10
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49665789
Damning.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49665789
Damning.
It all really depends on how Boris is perceived if he's muscled into any Brexit delay. Farage in such a situation is banking on the Brexiteers turning against him and going to the more hardline Brexit Party, but if Boris can deflect the anger onto Remainers he may do better than expected. Brexiteers turned on May because she never really was one at all; while Boris was notoriously late in supporting Brexit and probably doesn't care all that much for it ideologically because he has no real convictions, he at least gave proper support to the campaign and so can be regarded by Brexiteers as one of them.
I'll admit I'd need to become more informed on this issue - but as a starting-point a lot of service economy businesses (retail and leisure) tend to operate with a lot of part-time staff who'll work irregular shift patterns and who will be working overtime if they're doing full-time hours. Go into your local supermarket and you'll in all likelihood find that the vast majority of staff in non-managerial roles aren't contracted to a five-day week. And for some businesses, as far as I'm aware, this method of employing people is becoming more and more popular: full-time staff are being laid-off so more workers can work under flexible contracts, because again it allows companies to shift them about a lot more than you can a full-time worker with mandated, set hours.
Indeed, this is how Sports Direct and others abuse the system with zero hours contracts. Do a week by week rota with the absolute minimum amount of hours needed to cover the work that and over time you shave money off the wage bill.
In the case of a 4 day week though, Labour would presumably mandate that people's existing contracts are changed, with the full time equivalent pay of 40 hours changing to the same full time equivalent pay but for just 32 hours (5 days to 4 days). In essence this increases the hourly rate by 25%, so regardless of whether a business uses lots of part time or full time staff, the cost to business increases by 25%.
Again this depends on the business in question. In a lot of businesses productivity wouldn't really drop all that much if staff are working less - you hear endless tales of people in the corporate world who don't actually do that much work and do five days a week at 40 hours or so because that's sort of the societal norm and typical expectation. In businesses like retail etc companies are already increasingly moving towards automation more and more, again further negating the need for the few full-time workers they have...and if workers are getting increased compensation in large businesses, I'm struggling not to see this as a win for those working.
We're a long way away from automation being able to replace one day a weeks work for most jobs. This is to be implemented in the next parliament after all. For some businesses it's just a straight hike in the wage bill for the same output. As I say, my company would have to close down.
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Well that certainly wouldn't be encouraging investment and jobs in a post brexit Britain...
In an increasingly glabalised world basically starting at a cost base of 25% above others is not logical
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