Top Five Contenders
and more
The Favorite
Alberto Contador (Spain) Saxo Bank-Sungard: 1.65-to-1
Why he can win: When on form, the two-time defending Tour champ is the best climber in the world. Discussion over. He’s proven that time after time over the last four years, winning six grand tours, including a brutal 2011 Giro d’Italia that had enough climbing to make Sir Edmund Hillary’s knees buckle. On top of that climbing prowess, Contador, 28, can time trial with the best in the world, especially in the three-week race format. Put those two skill sets together and it’s a lethal — and heretofore — unbeatable combination.
What could trip him up: Some would argue Andy Schleck’s name belongs here, as he’s the only rider to really make Contador sweat these last few years. And pair that with the fact that Contador will be attempting to pull off the rare Giro-Tour double, which even he has admitted will be difficult, and Schleck’s chances improve.
But, as has been the case in cycling for a while now, it’s the off-the-bike issues that could be most problematic for Contador. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that the Spaniard is the subject of an ongoing doping investigation, after he tested positive for the banned clenbuterol during last year’s Tour de France. Contador claimed the failed test was caused by tainted beef, and so far that alibi has stood up. Right now it looks like final resolution won’t come until after the Tour, but this being the soap opera-esque world of professional cycling, another out-of-left-field plot twist would surprise no one. Contador’s name is on the start list … for now.
The Challenger
Andy Schleck (Luxembourg) Leopard-Trek: 3.25-to-1
Why he can win: In the unlikely case that Contador stumbles or doesn’t start the race at all, Schleck has proven he’s capable of climbing away from the rest of the Tour de France field. The 26-year-old snagged a pair of summit-finish stage wins at last year's Tour, and were it not for an ill-timed dropped chain he might have had a third. This year’s race includes four summit finishes.
What could trip him up: Schleck suffers from the same malady that’s plagued many of history’s great climbers: he’s not much of a time trialist. A year ago, he lost 31 seconds to Contador in the final time trial — and that was considered a good day. The good news this year is that the route includes just one individual time trial, and whatever time Schleck loses there, he might be able to make up in the earlier team time trial because of the superior team behind him. Bottom line, he’s got a puncher’s chance to win the race, which is more than anyone else can say.
The Fab 30-1s
Ivan Basso (Italy) Liquigas-Cannondale
Why he can win: Basso is a two-time Giro d’Italia winner, so the Italian knows what it takes to win a grand tour. He’s also a fabulous climber, which will be a huge asset in a race with four critical mountaintop finishes. And like Schleck, Basso benefits from the lack of time trials in this year’s race. Can he win the overall? Not likely. Is he the favorite to finish on the Tour podium for the third time in his career? Absolutely.
What could trip him up: Like Schleck, Basso’s time trial skills are limited. He also has a resume blighted by a doping suspension, and some argue that’s why he’s never returned to the form that made him runner-up to Lance Armstrong at the 2005 Tour de France.
Robert Gesink (Netherlands) Rabobank: 30-to-1
Why he can win: Yet another rider who benefits from this year’s climber-favoring route around France, the wispy Gesink was born to go uphill on a bicycle. The still-maturing rider proved his mettle a year ago, finishing a surprising sixth at the Tour, and has continued that ascension with third-place finish at this year’s testing Tour of the Basque Country. Like Basso, Gesink has a solid shot at the Tour’s final podium.
What could trip him up: It remains to be seen whether this Dutchman can develop the multi-dimensional skill set required to win the Tour. He’s had some flashy recent time trial finishes, including a win at the Tour of Oman. But a Middle Eastern tune-up race in February is a long way from France in July. A year ago, Gesink was 109th in the final time trial. That’s to say nothing of the questions surrounding his ability to be a team leader, something the 25-year-old has yet to prove.
Cadel Evans (Australia) BMC: 30-to-1
Why he can win: There was a time when the question wasn’t, If Evans can win the Tour, but when? Twice the Aussie finished on the Tour podium (2007, 2008), and even at 34, he’s still considered one of the sport’s top climbers. He’s also an above-average time trialist.
What could trip him up: Over the years, Evans’ No. 1 enemy has been himself. Calm under pressure is never a phrase attributed to the BMC team leader, who’s often seems nervous and edgy, and is frequently chippy with press. On top of that, his BMC team is more suited to the spring classics than to defending the yellow jersey in July.
The American Long Shot
Chris Horner (USA) RadioShack: 50-to-1
Why he can win: After winning the critical Sierra Road stage at the Tour of California, the always-effusive Horner declared to the world, “Nobody can drop me except Contador.” Certainly that was the case in the Golden State, as Horner put on a tour de force, easily dispatching the likes of Schleck and everyone of Team Garmin-Cervélo. On top of that, Horner is a solid time trialist (sixth on California’s tough Solvang circuit this year) and he’s one of the sport’s most cerebral riders. Think coach on the field and you’re on the right track. He’s said a podium finish is the goal, and it’s actually not a totally outrageous proposition.
What could trip him up: For starter’s Horner, 39, is not even the leader of his team. Instead, he’s one among four potential captains in a group that also includes former Tour podium finisher — and recent Tour of Switzerland winner — Levi Leipheimer, former Tour podium finisher Andreas Kloden, and Slovenian climbing sensation Jani Brajkovic. All four will get a chance to show their stuff when the climbing begins. Have a bad day on the wrong day, and you’ll be fetching bottles the rest of the race.
And the winner is?
