Top 4 Race 19/20 | duffer: "We [Chelsea] are getting 3rd. Despite what the lunatics in here think, Man United are not all that."

Leicester are going to struggle to make it, I thought the break might have done them some good but they're just as awful as they were before

Chelsea are certs now, that was a big win at the weekend and I think they might get something against City on Thursday

I'm worried about us, Sheffield United who have only lost away to City, Liverpool and a freak one at Newcastle, Brighton who we've never won at and are in good form, Villa away will be tough, Southampton who have a good record at OT, Palace away will be another tough one and Leicester away on the final day

Wolves definitely look like they could come from no where to finish 4th let alone 5th, very good run in for them
 
Mark_Barca said:
Chelsea will get more than 1 point in their last two games. Liverpool will have the title won and can see Klopp resting a few. Wolves at home to guarentee CL football? 3 points in my view.
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Title is not sealed mathematically and Klopp`s team are not the type to be complacent when the job is not fully done. Plus they will be at Anfield where no team has gotten points from this season. Wolves are a boggy team for all top 6 teams zero guarantee they get an easy win.
 
United will still do well to just get within two points of Leicester to make the final day a decider. It’s a real possibility, but still a tough ask.
 
Mark_Barca said:
It will be by matchday 37 though.
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And until then Klopp won`t want room for complacency especially at Anfield where they`ve won all their PL games in this season. Different story if it was Stamford Bridge.
 
Adam-Utd said:
Luckily Klopp/Guardiola don't seem like the type to get complacent and give away wins for no reason, but they might end up playing some 2nd stringers which won't help.

I think we just need to make sure we finish 5th and then fingers crossed City get banned.
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City will beat Chelsea. Of that I'm sure.

Liverpool will be a draw at worst. They haven't lost a game there for almost the last two seasons. Irrespective of the crowd being there or not, they are not going to let that record go. Also, barring a complete collapse after the title win, they'll be going for that points record also.
 
Leceister city appear leggy annd devoid of ideas. They have some difficult fixtures ahead with away games to Everton, Arsenal and spurs while they have home games to palace, Sheffield and Us. They wont make it. I reckon that we will pass them if we win our next three games.
 
TMDaines said:
United will still do well to just get within two points of Leicester to make the final day a decider. It’s a real possibility, but still a tough ask.
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The issue is more if we can continue our form and win games we should be winning against lower teams. Outside of our game against Leciester on the final day, the majority of our matches are against teams in the bottom half.

Leicester will definitely drop points - they have Everton, Palace, Arsenal, Bournemouth, Sheffield and Spurs before they face us. Outside of Bournemouth they could easily drop points in any of the other remaining games.

If we were a consistent side I'd say it's pretty likely we'd be within 2 points of them before the final match - but that's the issue, we've never really been a consistent team post SAF.
 
Mark_Barca said:
Chelsea will get more than 1 point in their last two games. Liverpool will have the title won and can see Klopp resting a few. Wolves at home to guarentee CL football? 3 points in my view.
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Nuno is a bit of a bastard in these games. Could see it being a banana skin for them.

Liverpool haven't lost at home for almost two seasons now. I can't see them giving up on that personally. In addition, they will most likely be going for the total points record as well (barring a complete shutdown, post-title, which is admittedly a possibility)
 
Leicester City: Current points - 54
Brighton - 1 -CHECK
Everton - 1
Crystal Palace - 1
Arsenal - 1
Bournemouth - 3
Sheffield - 3
Spurs - 0
Manchester United - 1
Sub total points = 11 points (From a possible 24)

Leicester City: Final points - 65
 
Still wide open for United. A point against Spurs is fine under the circumstances, and it was at worst an encouraging performance. If we win 6 of our last 8 we finish above 1 of Chelsea or Leicester, and really we have a dream run of fixtures remaining.
 
We’re catching Leicester.

The last game of the season means it’s a 6 point gap with a game in hand & they look dysfunctional.

Looking at our games, we should be after both them & Chelsea.
 
Tbh all his comparing run ins and where clubs will drop points is all moot, because your own teams you support will also drop points. On paper run ins will be harder and easier, but they never work out that way in reality
 
Leicester are in big trouble in this race. I can see us catching them and wouldn't be surprised if both us and Chelsea finished above them.
 
All of a sudden I see leicester dropping out. Everton, arsenal, spurs all away, Palace and United at home. Given our fixtures i can see us overtaking them now. Will be tight, but with that draw they've dropped right into the battle with us and Chelsea.
 
dwd said:
I can see Chelsea overtaking Leicester but I can't see us doing it too to be honest.
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What gives you confidence that Leicester will stay above us? They have 3 league wins since Christmas. 4 in 14 overall by my count and they have shown no sign of changing that.
 
ZolaWasMagic said:
Tbh all his comparing run ins and where clubs will drop points is all moot, because your own teams you support will also drop points. On paper run ins will be harder and easier, but they never work out that way in reality
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They actually do tend to match up. Teams will drop points anywhere, but Leicester or Chelsea would both generally be far happier with far fewer points from their run of 7/8 games than we would with our 8 games. Same if it was reversed. Harder fixtures you'll expect to drop more frequently, especially when they come frequently. Usually they aren't bunched up like this so leads to "great runs of form" or "shit runs of form", but over a season ifbyou pick them out individually, it'll work out like that.
 
cyberman said:
What gives you confidence that Leicester will stay above us? They have 3 league wins since Christmas. 4 in 14 overall by my count and they have shown no sign of changing that.
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Our team still doesn't give me confidence, added to that fact whenever we have had the chance to capitalise on a rivals mistake we always feck it up somehow.
Adnan said:
Can you see us making up 4 points on Leicester before we play them on the final day?
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They're 9 ahead of us, so we need to make up 6 before we play them, with it more likely being 7 due to their goal difference. We haven't won tomorrow yet unless my Maths is way out! Leicester away is always a tough game for us too.
 
Adam-Utd said:
Luckily Klopp/Guardiola don't seem like the type to get complacent and give away wins for no reason, but they might end up playing some 2nd stringers which won't help.

I think we just need to make sure we finish 5th and then fingers crossed City get banned.
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They'd have no reasons to play second stringers. For one the CL is in August which means no need to worry about fixture congestion for them and also Pep should be looking to keep his players sharp for when the CL resumes in August. No to mention Pool should be looking and playing for points record.
 
dwd said:
Our team still doesn't give me confidence, added to that fact whenever we have had the chance to capitalise on a rivals mistake we always feck it up somehow.

They're 9 ahead of us, so we need to make up 6 before we play them, with it more likely being 7 due to their goal difference. We haven't won tomorrow yet unless my Maths is way out! Leicester away is always a tough game for us too.
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Say we win tomorrow, do you think we could make up 4 pts before we play them?
 
dwd said:
I'd be more confident yeah. Need to win first though, won't be easy, and like I say we seem to find a way of ballsing it up.
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Think tomorrow will be pretty easy tbh. Sheffield without fans will struggle a lot IMO. But we'll see. I get the constant cautiousness, but fixtures really do make a difference, especially once they pile up like the next month will, and all 3 of the remaining contenders would kill to have our fixtures over theirs.
 
bosnian_red said:
Think tomorrow will be pretty easy tbh. Sheffield without fans will struggle a lot IMO. But we'll see. I get the constant cautiousness, but fixtures really do make a difference, especially once they pile up like the next month will, and all 3 of the remaining contenders would kill to have our fixtures over theirs.
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I hope you're right.
 
If we win our game in hand we will be 6 points behind Leicester with 7 games to go. It's doable I think.
 
If we break it down and have the 4 contending teams match results in the common fixtures (not counting the final day where it's Leicester - United and Chelsea - Wolves), here's essentially the difference in fixtures where the results will decide it (United vs the others):

United and Leicester - United game in hand, Leicester 9 points ahead (and GD advantage), common games vs Palace, Bournemouth, Sheffield Utd
United:
  • Brighton (A)
  • Villa (A)
  • Southampton (H)
  • West ham (H)
Leicester:
  • Everton (A)
  • Arsenal (A)
  • Spurs (A)
Can we see United picking up 9 points more in that run compared to Leicester, with 1 game more? 4 wins for United here are a must, couldn't ask for a kinder 4, while Leicester I'd be surprised if they win any of the 3, but on the balance on it you'd guess something like 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss between the 3. That set of results would get us 1 point below them.

United and Chelsea - Chelsea 5 points ahead, common games vs Palace, West Ham, Sheffield Utd
United:
  • Brighton (A)
  • Bournemouth (H)
  • Villa (A)
  • Southampton (H)
Chelsea:
  • City (H)
  • Watford (H)
  • Norwich (H)
  • Liverpool (A)
Again, should be 4 wins for United from this group, without excuses. Chelsea have 2 (should be) easy games, and then play against the 2 best sides in the world (arguably). They would kill for anything out of these, but I'd expect GD to favor United from the remaining games over them, so 1 point would likely not be enough for them.

United and Wolves - United GD advantage, common games are Sheffield Utd, Bournemouth, Villa, Palace
United:
  • Brighton (A)
  • Southampton (H)
  • West Ham (H)
Wolves:
  • Arsenal (H)
  • Everton (H)
  • Burnley (A)
3 (should be) easy wins for United, 2 tough games for Wolves with 1 you would expect an easier win.

Palace and Sheffield United are common for all 4 teams, and I can see Palace causing upsets and being a variable, while I think all 4 will beat Sheffield Utd comfortably. Then on the last day of the season it'll be Leicester - United, Chelsea - Wolves. 2 draws from these and I think it'll be United and Leicester that go through. I think it'll go down to the last game though, with United and Leicester tied on points by the last game, Chelsea 1 point behind them and Wolves another 3 behind Chelsea.
 
bosnian_red said:
If we break it down and have the 4 contending teams match results in the common fixtures (not counting the final day where it's Leicester - United and Chelsea - Wolves), here's essentially the difference in fixtures where the results will decide it (United vs the others):

United and Leicester - United game in hand, Leicester 9 points ahead (and GD advantage), common games vs Palace, Bournemouth, Sheffield Utd
United:
  • Brighton (A)
  • Villa (A)
  • Southampton (H)
  • West ham (H)
Leicester:
  • Everton (A)
  • Arsenal (A)
  • Spurs (A)
Can we see United picking up 9 points more in that run compared to Leicester, with 1 game more? 4 wins for United here are a must, couldn't ask for a kinder 4, while Leicester I'd be surprised if they win any of the 3, but on the balance on it you'd guess something like 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss between the 3. That set of results would get us 1 point below them.

United and Chelsea - Chelsea 5 points ahead, common games vs Palace, West Ham, Sheffield Utd
United:
  • Brighton (A)
  • Bournemouth (H)
  • Villa (A)
  • Southampton (H)
Chelsea:
  • City (H)
  • Watford (H)
  • Norwich (H)
  • Liverpool (A)
Again, should be 4 wins for United from this group, without excuses. Chelsea have 2 (should be) easy games, and then play against the 2 best sides in the world (arguably). They would kill for anything out of these, but I'd expect GD to favor United from the remaining games over them, so 1 point would likely not be enough for them.

United and Wolves - United GD advantage, common games are Sheffield Utd, Bournemouth, Villa, Palace
United:
  • Brighton (A)
  • Southampton (H)
  • West Ham (H)
Wolves:
  • Arsenal (H)
  • Everton (H)
  • Burnley (A)
3 (should be) easy wins for United, 2 tough games for Wolves with 1 you would expect an easier win.

Palace and Sheffield United are common for all 4 teams, and I can see Palace causing upsets and being a variable, while I think all 4 will beat Sheffield Utd comfortably. Then on the last day of the season it'll be Leicester - United, Chelsea - Wolves. 2 draws from these and I think it'll be United and Leicester that go through. I think it'll go down to the last game though, with United and Leicester tied on points by the last game, Chelsea 1 point behind them and Wolves another 3 behind Chelsea.
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Good analysis here.

Definitely think it’s down to the last day.
 
BenitoSTARR said:
Good analysis here.

Definitely think it’s down to the last day.
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Yeah that last day is going to be mental, theres a strong possibility we reach that point with all 4 of those teams with a chance of being in the top 4. I really think we need to be in a strong position by then so we can afford to sit back and hit Leicester on the break, don't want to be having to play that game needing a win.

Between that and relegation it could be a really thrilling climax to the season.
 
Mr Smith said:
Yeah that last day is going to be mental, theres a strong possibility we reach that point with all 4 of those teams with a chance of being in the top 4. I really think we need to be in a strong position by then so we can afford to sit back and hit Leicester on the break, don't want to be having to play that game needing a win.

Between that and relegation it could be a really thrilling climax to the season.
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Like any of our nerves will be able to handle a final day winner take all for 3rd and 4th
Between
Wolves vs chelsea
And
Leicester vs Man Utd
The tv companies would love that shit
 
bosnian_red said:
If we break it down and have the 4 contending teams match results in the common fixtures (not counting the final day where it's Leicester - United and Chelsea - Wolves), here's essentially the difference in fixtures where the results will decide it (United vs the others):

United and Leicester - United game in hand, Leicester 9 points ahead (and GD advantage), common games vs Palace, Bournemouth, Sheffield Utd
United:
  • Brighton (A)
  • Villa (A)
  • Southampton (H)
  • West ham (H)
Leicester:
  • Everton (A)
  • Arsenal (A)
  • Spurs (A)
Can we see United picking up 9 points more in that run compared to Leicester, with 1 game more? 4 wins for United here are a must, couldn't ask for a kinder 4, while Leicester I'd be surprised if they win any of the 3, but on the balance on it you'd guess something like 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss between the 3. That set of results would get us 1 point below them.

United and Chelsea - Chelsea 5 points ahead, common games vs Palace, West Ham, Sheffield Utd
United:
  • Brighton (A)
  • Bournemouth (H)
  • Villa (A)
  • Southampton (H)
Chelsea:
  • City (H)
  • Watford (H)
  • Norwich (H)
  • Liverpool (A)
Again, should be 4 wins for United from this group, without excuses. Chelsea have 2 (should be) easy games, and then play against the 2 best sides in the world (arguably). They would kill for anything out of these, but I'd expect GD to favor United from the remaining games over them, so 1 point would likely not be enough for them.

United and Wolves - United GD advantage, common games are Sheffield Utd, Bournemouth, Villa, Palace
United:
  • Brighton (A)
  • Southampton (H)
  • West Ham (H)
Wolves:
  • Arsenal (H)
  • Everton (H)
  • Burnley (A)
3 (should be) easy wins for United, 2 tough games for Wolves with 1 you would expect an easier win.

Palace and Sheffield United are common for all 4 teams, and I can see Palace causing upsets and being a variable, while I think all 4 will beat Sheffield Utd comfortably. Then on the last day of the season it'll be Leicester - United, Chelsea - Wolves. 2 draws from these and I think it'll be United and Leicester that go through. I think it'll go down to the last game though, with United and Leicester tied on points by the last game, Chelsea 1 point behind them and Wolves another 3 behind Chelsea.
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Really good way of looking at it.

We then go straight into Europa bonanza so being on good form will really help for that too.
 
I think race for top 4 would be anti climatic it would all decided before season finishes.
 
gajender said:
I think race for top 4 would be anti climatic it would all decided before season finishes.
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All 3 teams will still need to worry about Wolves in this scenario, who will likely finish the season around low-mid 60's for points. City or no City, none of the teams can afford to relax.
 
bosnian_red said:
If we break it down and have the 4 contending teams match results in the common fixtures (not counting the final day where it's Leicester - United and Chelsea - Wolves), here's essentially the difference in fixtures where the results will decide it (United vs the others):

United and Leicester - United game in hand, Leicester 9 points ahead (and GD advantage), common games vs Palace, Bournemouth, Sheffield Utd
United:
  • Brighton (A)
  • Villa (A)
  • Southampton (H)
  • West ham (H)
Leicester:
  • Everton (A)
  • Arsenal (A)
  • Spurs (A)
Can we see United picking up 9 points more in that run compared to Leicester, with 1 game more? 4 wins for United here are a must, couldn't ask for a kinder 4, while Leicester I'd be surprised if they win any of the 3, but on the balance on it you'd guess something like 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss between the 3. That set of results would get us 1 point below them.

United and Chelsea - Chelsea 5 points ahead, common games vs Palace, West Ham, Sheffield Utd
United:
  • Brighton (A)
  • Bournemouth (H)
  • Villa (A)
  • Southampton (H)
Chelsea:
  • City (H)
  • Watford (H)
  • Norwich (H)
  • Liverpool (A)
Again, should be 4 wins for United from this group, without excuses. Chelsea have 2 (should be) easy games, and then play against the 2 best sides in the world (arguably). They would kill for anything out of these, but I'd expect GD to favor United from the remaining games over them, so 1 point would likely not be enough for them.

United and Wolves - United GD advantage, common games are Sheffield Utd, Bournemouth, Villa, Palace
United:
  • Brighton (A)
  • Southampton (H)
  • West Ham (H)
Wolves:
  • Arsenal (H)
  • Everton (H)
  • Burnley (A)
3 (should be) easy wins for United, 2 tough games for Wolves with 1 you would expect an easier win.

Palace and Sheffield United are common for all 4 teams, and I can see Palace causing upsets and being a variable, while I think all 4 will beat Sheffield Utd comfortably. Then on the last day of the season it'll be Leicester - United, Chelsea - Wolves. 2 draws from these and I think it'll be United and Leicester that go through. I think it'll go down to the last game though, with United and Leicester tied on points by the last game, Chelsea 1 point behind them and Wolves another 3 behind Chelsea.
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Very good post, I mean the way you separated common fixtures and remaining fixtures is really good. We have decent chance as long as we win today’s game.
 
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