The price of oil/the cost of energy

[adexkola]

I have read conflicting reports about the cost to produce/drill oil in different countries. Does anyone have solid data about that?
I also had to laugh about a fed report (dunno the exact date), that tried to outline a couple of "realistic" scenarios about the future price of oil and the cheapest scenario was that oil would be at 40$/barrel for 2016. So I guess few people are actually able to predict the price. Considering that Iran might start pumping out a lot more could mean that the price could continue to fall in 2016.

It's been a mild fall/winter so far in the States, resulting in lower demand for heating oil. China is in a bit of a recession. Many factors contributing to the current depression in oil prices. And like you said, prices may continue to fall. This may set alternative energy development a few years back.

 

[PedroMendez]

My point was, that 99% of the predictions are pretty shit. You make a lot of reasonable points, but the development depends on so many unpredictable things, that it is almost impossible to make any useful prediction. My guess is, that the supply will increase (not by a lot, but overall a bit), while demand will tank, because of an economic down turn in the USA and China. Yet I wouldn´t bank my money on that prediction.

 

[Raoul]

Wouldn't be surprised to see it in the mid 20s in the next few months.

 

[Raoul]

My point was, that 99% of the predictions are pretty shit. You make a lot of reasonable points, but the development depends on so many unpredictable things, that it is almost impossible to make any useful prediction. My guess is, that the supply will increase (not by a lot, but overall a bit), while demand will tank, because of an economic down turn in the USA and China. Yet I wouldn´t bank my money on that prediction.

Things wont change until the Saudis change their policy, which imo, they will do in the next few months since they can't afford to lose this much money for a sustained period of time.

 

[Sir Matt]

It's been a mild fall/winter so far in the States, resulting in lower demand for heating oil. China is in a bit of a recession. Many factors contributing to the current depression in oil prices. And like you said, prices may continue to fall. This may set alternative energy development a few years back.

It's been cold in NC for less than 10 days. I wore a polo and boat shoes to work today.

 

[adexkola]

It's been cold in NC for less than 10 days. I wore a polo and boat shoes to work today.

Heh, ditto.

@PedroMendez you may find this an interesting read: http://www.economist.com/news/finan...-spot-and-ride-market-trends-are-hoping-fresh

 

[George Owen]

Era of cheap Russian gas to EU ends as transit across Ukraine stops​

Is Europe ready for this? How much expensive energy gonna get?

 

[Balljy]

Era of cheap Russian gas to EU ends as transit across Ukraine stops​

Is Europe ready for this? How much expensive energy gonna get?

According to the article it's about 10% of imports now and that's clustered in a few countries. I doubt the impact will be big.

 

[11101]

Era of cheap Russian gas to EU ends as transit across Ukraine stops​

Is Europe ready for this? How much expensive energy gonna get?

We've spent the last 2 and a bit years shifting supply lines. We rely very little on Russian imports now. Oil even less so.

 

[George Owen]

According to the article it's about 10% of imports now and that's clustered in a few countries. I doubt the impact will be big.

We've spent the last 2 and a bit years shifting supply lines. We rely very little on Russian imports now. Oil even less so.

Let's hope.