The Economics Thread

@oneniltothearsenal @Andrew~ Curious to know what your backgrounds are. Do you work in finance or did you learn this shit in school? Economics is something that I know absolutely nothing about but would like to learn more. Seems very intimidating as I have no idea what you two were even discussing! :lol:
 
@oneniltothearsenal @Andrew~ Curious to know what your backgrounds are. Do you work in finance or did you learn this shit in school? Economics is something that I know absolutely nothing about but would like to learn more. Seems very intimidating as I have no idea what you two were even discussing! :lol:

I don’t know about @oneniltothearsenal but I’ve done no formal economics education; my academic history is mostly in law and mathematics.

I do like to read widely though, economics, philosophy and history are my favourite subjects so I go through a lot of stuff. Discussions like the one we had in here help as well, cos you never know how well your ideas stand up to the Socratic method until you do it.

The best way to start is to get an economic history book: they usually fly you through general ideas that major economic thinkers had and then you can follow them individually, before you start getting into the nitty gritty of specific economic issues.

There’s a course on Khan Academy too if you feel like you want to start from Econ 101 up, but you need a bit of stamina for that.

My particular favourite economics essay is ‘The Use of Knowledge in Society’ - FA Hayek. Easy to read but hugely impactful, check it out.
 
@oneniltothearsenal @Andrew~ Curious to know what your backgrounds are. Do you work in finance or did you learn this shit in school? Economics is something that I know absolutely nothing about but would like to learn more. Seems very intimidating as I have no idea what you two were even discussing! :lol:

My undergrad degree focused on micro (behavioral economics, game theory) and I worked a few years applying it in legal and marketing strategy
 
Cheers @Andrew~ @oneniltothearsenal For some reason, I was always under the impression that economics was more quantitative (black and white), like math, rather than something with different viewpoints to be debated. Very interesting. Googled the essay and will read it later.
 
Cheers @Andrew~ @oneniltothearsenal For some reason, I was always under the impression that economics was more quantitative (black and white), like math, rather than something with different viewpoints to be debated. Very interesting. Googled the essay and will read it later.

I did a quick google for an introduction for the type of stuff I worked with. These are not really complete overviews but give a decent introduction. I'll look around later for a introduction into the overall field and see what I can turn up



Intro to reference-dependent preferences (the evolution of prospect theory that was developed in the late 70s, 80s
https://neuroeconomics.org/documents/Koszegi_Workshop2010.pdf



https://www.voicetube.com/videos/45414

 

I'll read the paper later this week if its on one of the databases I have access to but I am dubious about the article after this sloppy abstract
Gerd Gigerenzer said:
In its portrayal, people have systematic cognitive biases that are not only as persistent as visual illusions but also costly in real life—meaning that governmental paternalism is called upon to steer people with the help of “nudges.

This sentence as it stands is highly misleading and loaded. Its taking the specific direction of the work of just two people, behavioral economist Richard Thaler and law professor Cass Sunstein both of University of Chicago who knew Obama before he was President and then worked for Obama Admin. That abstract is mistakenly taking those two's specific individual views as representative of an entire field when my professors never argued for "governmental paternalism" (which itself is a loaded phrase with hidden framing inferences (see Lakoff) Their views shouldn't be taken as representative of anyone but those two.

I really hope the paper itself doesn't contain more errors like this or its not even worth spending 10 minutes reading.

That said there is something to a 'bias bias' but its not really among the academic economists and psychologists but more in the mainstream media that don't know enough to know how much they don't k now.
 
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ECB cuts rates and restarts QE at €20bn/month.



Sends yield curves for the whole Eurozone (bar Greece I think) negative



Draghi fires warning to Euro governments with surpluses (*cough* Deutschland *cough*) to start spending the mullah to stimulate growth stave off recession.

Trumpus not happy, throws barbs at Fed for not doing the same.

 
Two extremely influential theories of economics rest on mistaken understanding of statistics.

Expected utility theory is partly created to solve a problem, that doesn't exist in the way people thought. At the time the knowledge about statistics was limited. Many concepts were discovered later. It shouldn't surprise us that this theory makes false predictions.
One correction of EUT is prospect theory (=behavioral econ). It doesn't fix the initial mistake but adds further assumptions and logic to explain contradicting observations. Consequently it's also deeply flawed.

Leading economists ignoring a foundational error of their theories highlights how deeply flawed economics is as science. These theories are not really falsifiable for many reasons.
 
Two extremely influential theories of economics rest on mistaken understanding of statistics.

Expected utility theory is partly created to solve a problem, that doesn't exist in the way people thought. At the time the knowledge about statistics was limited. Many concepts were discovered later. It shouldn't surprise us that this theory makes false predictions.
One correction of EUT is prospect theory (=behavioral econ). It doesn't fix the initial mistake but adds further assumptions and logic to explain contradicting observations. Consequently it's also deeply flawed.

Leading economists ignoring a foundational error of their theories highlights how deeply flawed economics is as science. These theories are not really falsifiable for many reasons.

What cognitive bias in understanding statistics (there are actually quite a few of them) are you talking about for EE?

Also note:
Behavioral economics has moved beyond basic prospect theory a long time ago (that was in the 1970s)

and Karl Popper's principles are not necessarily the gold standard:
"The origin of falsification was simple: Popper realized that no amount of data can really prove a theory, but that even a single key data point can potentially disprove it. The two scientific paradigms which were reigning then - quantum mechanics and relativity - certainly conformed to his theory. Physics as practiced then was adept at making very precise, quantitative predictions about a variety of phenomena, from the electron's charge to the perihelion of Mercury. Falsification certainly worked very well when applied to these theories. Sensibly Popper advocated it as a tool to distinguish science from non-science (and from nonsense).

But in 2014 falsification has become a much less reliable and more complicated beast. Let's run through a list of its limitations and failures. For one thing, Popper's idea that no amount of data can confirm a theory is a dictum that's simply not obeyed by the majority of the world's scientists. In practice a large amount of data does improve confidence in a theory. Scientists usually don't need to confirm a theory one hundred percent in order to trust and use it; in most cases a theory only needs to be good enough. Thus the purported lack of confidence in a theory just because we are not one hundred percent sure of its validity is a philosophical fear, more pondered by grim professors haunting the halls of academia than by practical scientists performing experiments in the everyday world.

Nor does Popper's exhortation that a single incisive data point slay a theory hold any water in many scientists' minds. Whether because of pride in their creations or because of simple caution, most scientists don't discard a theory the moment there's an experiment which disagrees with its main conclusions. Maybe the apparatus is flawed, or maybe you have done the statistics wrong; there's always something that can rescue a theory from death. But most frequently, it's a simple tweaking of the theory that can save it. For instance, the highly unexpected discovery of CP violation did not require physicists to discard the theoretical framework of particle physics. They could easily save their quantum universe by introducing some further principles that accounted for the anomalous phenomenon. Science would be in trouble if scientists started abandoning theories the moment an experiment disagreed with them. Of course there are some cases where a single experiment can actually make or break a theory but fortunately for the sanity of its practitioners, there are few such cases in science."

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/the-curious-wavefunction/falsification-and-its-discontents/

Based on your logic above Pedro, particle physics (and most of modern science) would also be deeply flawed.

Not that economics is perfect, but its not flawed because of the reasons you mentioned.
 
Two extremely influential theories of economics rest on mistaken understanding of statistics.

Expected utility theory is partly created to solve a problem, that doesn't exist in the way people thought. At the time the knowledge about statistics was limited. Many concepts were discovered later. It shouldn't surprise us that this theory makes false predictions.
One correction of EUT is prospect theory (=behavioral econ). It doesn't fix the initial mistake but adds further assumptions and logic to explain contradicting observations. Consequently it's also deeply flawed.

Leading economists ignoring a foundational error of their theories highlights how deeply flawed economics is as science. These theories are not really falsifiable for many reasons.

I was reading a paper yesterday from some guy named Taleb about how a lot of mathematical finance shit (options, derivatives) is bunkum because the formulations rely a lot on the assumption that extreme events are extremely uncommon in finance, which is flawed from the get
 
I was reading a paper yesterday from some guy named Taleb about how a lot of mathematical finance shit (options, derivatives) is bunkum because the formulations rely a lot on the assumption that extreme events are extremely uncommon in finance, which is flawed from the get
Yes, that argument made his career. The Black Swan is his book on the subject (and more). Pretty good read.
 
Put the book on my to-get list for Xmas

Pick up one of his earlier books. I can't recommend 'skin in the game' despite his ideas/views being very relevant. He started to repackage the same stuff over and over again. In a way he fall victim to his substantial success. He is also quite a character for the better and worse. Good writer compared to other authors who write about this kind of stuff.
 
I was reading a paper yesterday from some guy named Taleb about how a lot of mathematical finance shit (options, derivatives) is bunkum because the formulations rely a lot on the assumption that extreme events are extremely uncommon in finance, which is flawed from the get
James Simons made billions with quantitative finance though.
 
James Simons made billions with quantitative finance though.

Taleb's point was that the discipline underestimates systemic risk from events deemed as outliers (both in frequency and magnitude), and shits the bed when such events occur more frequently and larger than expected.

When everything is normal, it's great. Hence James Simon making a killing.
 
Pick up one of his earlier books. I can't recommend 'skin in the game' despite his ideas/views being very relevant. He started to repackage the same stuff over and over again. In a way he fall victim to his substantial success. He is also quite a character for the better and worse. Good writer compared to other authors who write about this kind of stuff.
The good thing about Taleb is that once you read him once, you never have to read anything else he writes because its all the same :lol:.

James Simons made billions with quantitative finance though.
It's a bit different, because Renaissance mainly looks for patterns in asset trading that they can exploit, not that prices are off relative to fundamentals. Also Renaissance almost certainly uses unique modelling and algorithms vs other firms and the market in general, otherwise other quant strategies would have similar success and none do.
 
Was just reading about Russia's "loans for shares" programs in the 90s. Basically blatant daylight robbery of the Russian state. It's actually insane what happened in Russia, like it's from a novel. But it's the cold reality.
 
A question -

Lots of noise right now about a wealth tax. One of the common criticisms is that 2% of Bezos' wealth is 3 billion, while his actual cash on hand is far less and most of his wealth is in Amazon stock.
What would the implications be of collecting the tax as the stock itself, and letting the company continue with no changes in policy (basically, something like a passive shareholder)? In one sense, nothing would change except the wealthy individual having less direct control of his company's board, so the stocj value should continue to move up or down as it would otherwise. In another, perhaps the stock value is somewhat irrational, and despite the company having the same independence as earlier, it would tank?

@PedroMendez @MTF @oneniltothearsenal
 
A question -

Lots of noise right now about a wealth tax. One of the common criticisms is that 2% of Bezos' wealth is 3 billion, while his actual cash on hand is far less and most of his wealth is in Amazon stock.
What would the implications be of collecting the tax as the stock itself, and letting the company continue with no changes in policy (basically, something like a passive shareholder)? In one sense, nothing would change except the wealthy individual having less direct control of his company's board, so the stocj value should continue to move up or down as it would otherwise. In another, perhaps the stock value is somewhat irrational, and despite the company having the same independence as earlier, it would tank?

@PedroMendez @MTF @oneniltothearsenal
What is the government going to do with the stock? It doesn't pay dividends. So presumably they'll sell it, which will create some selling pressure, albeit minor. If they keep it, then it's very clearly an act of confiscation and not one to fund the government.
 
A question -

Lots of noise right now about a wealth tax. One of the common criticisms is that 2% of Bezos' wealth is 3 billion, while his actual cash on hand is far less and most of his wealth is in Amazon stock.
What would the implications be of collecting the tax as the stock itself, and letting the company continue with no changes in policy (basically, something like a passive shareholder)? In one sense, nothing would change except the wealthy individual having less direct control of his company's board, so the stocj value should continue to move up or down as it would otherwise. In another, perhaps the stock value is somewhat irrational, and despite the company having the same independence as earlier, it would tank?

@PedroMendez @MTF @oneniltothearsenal

I'm not sure there has been a true reformulation of how to do things like this.

I think you have to start with the goal: repurposing extreme wealth concentrations in a more utilitarian (greatest good for greatest number) manner. There would have to be ways to re-direct profits from going to shareholders to funding things like single payer health care. The reason Wall Streeters hate the idea so much is they know that ultimately its very feasible for the USA to have single payer but ultimately the only way to pay for it is to strip down the wild west finance profiteering that's been going on since Reagan. So much wealth is being siphoned off and hidden in various ways that passing a wealth tax right now would simply mean beginning to expand the IRS to start actually looking into all the various shady means the megawealthy and little richie riches use.

You have to reclaim the political process from being controlled by the megawealthy though or even the best idea will just shouted down with some Ayn Rand inspired bullshit from the grotesque fecal menagerie that is the US Senate.
 
A question -

Lots of noise right now about a wealth tax. One of the common criticisms is that 2% of Bezos' wealth is 3 billion, while his actual cash on hand is far less and most of his wealth is in Amazon stock.
What would the implications be of collecting the tax as the stock itself, and letting the company continue with no changes in policy (basically, something like a passive shareholder)? In one sense, nothing would change except the wealthy individual having less direct control of his company's board, so the stocj value should continue to move up or down as it would otherwise. In another, perhaps the stock value is somewhat irrational, and despite the company having the same independence as earlier, it would tank?

@PedroMendez @MTF @oneniltothearsenal

I dont want to say something wrong, but I think the wealth tax rate for Bezos would be 6% with Warren's proposal.
I am not entirely sure I understand your line of reasoning. Whats the point of holding these stocks (or anything else that is getting taxed)? If the 6% are indeed correct it would result in the nationalization of the affected companies in a relatively short period of time. It would be far more radical than just selling it.

edit: the answer of Zucman is essentially "just sell it and create markets for the non-liquid assets. There are rating agencies, that can help to evaluate these assets. Secondary effects don't matter/won't happen."
 
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It's a little hard to take him seriously when the thing he's puffing his chest about - challenging the status quo - is precisely what the people he's criticising were recognised for. And the flaw he's saying caused this to become status quo - egoism and a lack of open mindedness - is pretty evident in his own words. If his intention is to avoid the fractious internal conflicts, he probably shouldn't frame it as how he's proved everyone else wrong because of this embarrassing oversight.

At the end of the day a lot of the problems economists are wrestling with rely heavily on interpretation. His solution is mathematically elegant but you need to interpret the problem and the evidence in a specific way for it to be considered "proof". It's good that these fundamental ideas are challenged so often but it's foolish to believe that's the correct interpretation. It's one based on sound logic but with gaps to explore, much like the theory he's criticising was.
 
Markets are taking a battering today, Corona and Oil taking a hammer to everything.
 
A recession is inevitable. Only thing that remains to be seen is if its a year long blip or a crater that takes half a decade to recover from.
 
Check out this on the Guardian today:

US corporate bonds could face 'Minsky Moment'
Richard Partington
If the stock market crash isn’t bad enough, the fallout in the US bond markets is perhaps even scarier to contemplate - particularly given a boom in risky borrowing by US oil and gas firms in recent years.
Deutsche Bank has just issued a note warning there could be a “Minsky moment” for high-yield American bonds - in a nod to the economist Hyman Minsky’s theory on how markets can crash amid widespread panic following periods of speculative investment.
The US subprime collapse of 2008 is regarded as one such moment, so the comparison is ominous to say the least...
The bank’s analysts warn that defaults - companies being unable to repay or refinance their debts - are now inevitable, with around $13bn of debts due for repayment before the end of 2021 from the most heavily-indebted oil and gas firms.
In a shocking sign of the chaos to come, it says the distress ratio for US oil and gas high yield debt - defined as the proportion of debt trading with a spread of at least 1,000 basis points (in other words, bonds with yields that are more than 1,000 basis points higher than a reference yield such as on a US Treasury bond) - was already 62.3% as of Friday before today’s oil price collapse.
To put that in context, it says the distress ratio hit 43.9% in March 2016 when oil prices last crashed. In good times, when the oil price peaked in late 2018, it was 4.8%. In other words, well more than half of heavily-indebted US energy companies have borrowing costs that are going through the roof. Gulp.
In another illustration of how risky the situation is, Standard & Poors says the percentage of oil and gas borrowers with negative outlooks on their credit rating - which gauges their financial strength and is key for borrowing money on reasonable terms - is around 33%, which is well above the long-term average of 19%.
Central bankers have been worrying about the US high yield bond markets for quite a while now already. This could be the start of something quite dramatic indeed.

 
Markets are taking a battering today, Corona and Oil taking a hammer to everything.

Brutal, just brutal. Shares in thee company I work for lost almost 10% of their value today.

My mutual fund holdings are only reporting value as of Friday. This is gonna hurt big time.
 
A recession is inevitable. Only thing that remains to be seen is if its a year long blip or a crater that takes half a decade to recover from.


Agreed.
A number of major economies were struggling badly before this.
It only needed a small catalyst for them to tip over.

On a positive note, the drop in oil prices might soften the fall.

My guess is that whenever this virus is defeated, and at some point it will, the recovery won't take a decade.
And hopefully the US/China trade wars will stop.
But we are unlikely to see any real growth for many years.