The chase for 4th place (not top 4)

After Arsenal beat us and Tottenham only drawing vs Brentford, think Arsenal have better chances. Even if Spurs beat them in derby, they'll still lose to Liverpool at Anfield. Then Spurs would need Newcastle to at least get a point vs Arsenal, which is not impossible but last 2 wins against Chelsea and United may prove crucial for Arsenal.

Also Arsenal are most probably going to beat West Ham away. Don't think they care or have enough energy to focus on PL with Europa League semis coming up.
 
I'm not convinced Spurs want it enough. If Arsenal keep it together it's their spot.
 
Bilbo said:
I don't think its unfair, or bitter, to claim that all of the chasers for 4th this season are mediocre. United have had a disastrous season, we can all see that. I've been mildly impressed with Arsenal for spells this season. They look fragile but at least look to be improving, albeit from a very low bar, and they'll probably only play about 40 matches this season which is a notable advantage. Tottenham have flattered to deceive. West Ham could well have taken that spot if they'd not had the Europa distractions and a decent replacement for Antonio.
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Just on this, how many matches will have Utd played? 38 league, 8 European, 1 League Cup, 2 FA Cup. 49 games?

Arsenal will play 38 League, 6 League Cup & 1 FA Cup. 45 games. Obviously there's been no European travel though.

Chelsea mind you will play 38 league, 10 Champions League, 6 FA Cup, 6 League Cup, 1 Euro Super Cup & 2 World Club Cup. 63 games!
 
GoonerBear said:
Just on this, how many matches will have Utd played? 38 league, 8 European, 1 League Cup, 2 FA Cup. 49 games?

Arsenal will play 38 League, 6 League Cup & 1 FA Cup. 45 games. Obviously there's been no European travel though.

Chelsea mind you will play 38 league, 10 Champions League, 6 FA Cup, 6 League Cup, 1 Euro Super Cup & 2 World Club Cup. 63 games!
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Must admit I'd forgotten about your LC semi final. All domestic fixtures though so its still a factor. I think you deserve 4th though based on quality of football.

Chelsea's mileage is horrendous
 
Big if, but if Arsenal win today, they will be 3 points behind Chelsea. Suddenly their last game of the season becomes that much more interesting.
 
mu4c_20le said:
Big if, but if Arsenal win today, they will be 3 points behind Chelsea. Suddenly their last game of the season becomes that much more interesting.
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Chelsea play Watford in the last game? It won't be interesting at all.
 
GoonerBear said:
Just on this, how many matches will have Utd played? 38 league, 8 European, 1 League Cup, 2 FA Cup. 49 games?

Arsenal will play 38 League, 6 League Cup & 1 FA Cup. 45 games. Obviously there's been no European travel though.

Chelsea mind you will play 38 league, 10 Champions League, 6 FA Cup, 6 League Cup, 1 Euro Super Cup & 2 World Club Cup. 63 games!
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If we beat Villarreal on Tuesday we’ll have played 65 I think so that number from Chelsea is crazy. Had they reached the CL final they would’ve ended on 66.
 
Red4Ever said:
arsenal just beat chelsea

their (Chelsea’s) fixtures are easy now

Tuchel is a bit of a fraud though
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Depends. If they lose the cup final it would be a blow to their morale. Everton are now alive again so it wont be easy for either of them.
 
So United’s (non-)chances still rest on:
  • the North London Derby being a draw,;
  • Spurs only getting a draw from their final other three games (which includes Norwich, but Liverpool and Burnley are loseable)
  • Arsenal otherwise losing out and doing some damage to their goal difference (which would be a maximum of +10);
  • United winning out; getting their goal difference to at least +10 (which would otherwise be a minimum of +7) to knick it on goals scored!
Looks like we may have another deep run in the Europa League, lads.
 
TMDaines said:
So United’s (non-)chances still rest on:
  • the North London Derby being a draw,;
  • Spurs only getting a draw from their final other three games (which includes Norwich, but Liverpool and Burnley are loseable)
  • Arsenal otherwise losing out and doing some damage to their goal difference (which would be a maximum of +10);
  • United winning out; getting their goal difference to at least +10 (which would otherwise be a minimum of +7) to knick it on goals scored!
Looks like we may have another deep run in the Europa League, lads.
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Wonder if that would be priced at longer odds than Leicester winning the league in August 2015.....
 
TMDaines said:
So United’s (non-)chances still rest on:
  • the North London Derby being a draw,;
  • Spurs only getting a draw from their final other three games (which includes Norwich, but Liverpool and Burnley are loseable)
  • Arsenal otherwise losing out and doing some damage to their goal difference (which would be a maximum of +10);
  • United winning out; getting their goal difference to at least +10 (which would otherwise be a minimum of +7) to knick it on goals scored!
Looks like we may have another deep run in the Europa League, lads.
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You're forgetting a mass brawl in the Spurs Arsenal game resulting in 10 red cards each and a massive points deduction :drool:
 
TMDaines said:
So United’s (non-)chances still rest on:
  • the North London Derby being a draw,;
  • Spurs only getting a draw from their final other three games (which includes Norwich, but Liverpool and Burnley are loseable)
  • Arsenal otherwise losing out and doing some damage to their goal difference (which would be a maximum of +10);
  • United winning out; getting their goal difference to at least +10 (which would otherwise be a minimum of +7) to knick it on goals scored!
Looks like we may have another deep run in the Europa League, lads.
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Us winning Europa and ten Hag trying out the team in Europe isn’t the worst thing imo. Then with some more additions in January and the summer champions league competition seems realistic
 
TMDaines said:
So United’s (non-)chances still rest on:
  • the North London Derby being a draw,;
  • Spurs only getting a draw from their final other three games (which includes Norwich, but Liverpool and Burnley are loseable)
  • Arsenal otherwise losing out and doing some damage to their goal difference (which would be a maximum of +10);
  • United winning out; getting their goal difference to at least +10 (which would otherwise be a minimum of +7) to knick it on goals scored!
Looks like we may have another deep run in the Europa League, lads.
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Us beating West Ham ruled them out the race mathematically, & if we beat Leeds at home Sunday it would rule you out mathematically I think, and would be a 2 horse race between us & Spurs.

If we do that and Spurs lose to Liverpool at Anfield we'd have a 5 point lead going into the North London derby next week.

Our final 2 fixtures are Newcastle away and Everton at home, Spurs are Burnley at home & Norwich away.

I'd still say it's 50/50 just now given Spurs have home advantage in the derby and the easier final 2 games (on paper) and a big goal difference advantage.
 
GoonerBear said:
Us beating West Ham ruled them out the race mathematically, & if we beat Leeds at home Sunday it would rule you out mathematically I think, and would be a 2 horse race between us & Spurs.

If we do that and Spurs lose to Liverpool at Anfield we'd have a 5 point lead going into the North London derby next week.

Our final 2 fixtures are Newcastle away and Everton at home, Spurs are Burnley at home & Norwich away.

I'd still say it's 50/50 just now given Spurs have home advantage in the derby and the easier final 2 games (on paper) and a big goal difference advantage.
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United are not going to match Spurs’s goal difference, so essentially any win for Arsenal or Spurs kills United off, and even any Arsenal draw makes all results in the NLD terminal for United.
 
If Abramovich keeps dicking around, there may well be value in finishing fifth…
 
Arsenal can afford to lose at white Hart Lane if they win every other game remaining

They will fancy it
 
I can't believe I'm back in this thread again.
 
We can close this thread now since it's mathematically impossible for United to make top 4.
 
Sylar said:
Your remaining fixtures are fair
Interesting to see what lineup you put for Leeds before the fa cup final though
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With the way we're playing, I really don't see us winning more than 1 of the remaining 3 league games. I think Tuchel will rotate heavily for the Leeds game.
 
WeePat said:
With the way we're playing, I really don't see us winning more than 1 of the remaining 3 league games. I think Tuchel will rotate heavily for the Leeds game.
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Chelsea probably only need 2 pts to get 4th tbf, they may not end up 3rd, but I still cannot see them finishing 5th with a 5 point cushion and a vastly superior GD and only 3 games left.

That said, may as well hand the Dippers the FA Cup.
 
So even if Spurs beat Arsenal in NLD, and it's a big if, Arsenal will still be 1 point ahead of them, assuming they beat Leeds tomorrow. Should still be interesting, Arsenal and Spurs playing each other in top 4 battle, Arsenal playing Leeds and Everton who are trying to survive + Newcastle away, while Spurs also play Burnley and they are fighting to avoid relegation as well.

Chelsea have been poor lately but think they'll still finish 3rd. Beat Leicester and Watford at home while drawing or even losing to Leeds, that gives Chelsea 73 points, to surpass them Arsenal would have to win all their remaining games, because even 10 out of 12 points wouldn't be enough as Chelsea have much better goal difference.
 
Even if they lose to Spurs, Arsenal will be 4th. And I actually don't think they'll lose that game. If Tottenham beat Liverpool then they would have much bigger chance for top 4.
 
Didnt realise how bad a result that draw was for Spurs yesterday would take a collapse by Arsenal now
 
charlenefan said:
Didnt realise how bad a result that draw was for Spurs yesterday would take a collapse by Arsenal now
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Conte made a huge mistake playing for a point after Liverpool equalized. Being behind by 4 is virtually the same as being behind by 5 right now, so the point did very little for them. Winning would have made a massive difference though.

No idea why nobody in the media is talking about this.
 
Powderfinger said:
Conte made a huge mistake playing for a point after Liverpool equalized. Being behind by 4 is virtually the same as being behind by 5 right now, so the point did very little for them. Winning would have made a massive difference though.

No idea why nobody in the media is talking about this.
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I think they are gambling on beating us in the NLD & us dropping points at Newcastle or against Everton. We could still well do that.

Would be funny if we did but they failed to beat Burnley or Norwich.
 
GoonerBear said:
I think they are gambling on beating us in the NLD & us dropping points at Newcastle or against Everton. We could still well do that.

Would be funny if we did but they failed to beat Burnley or Norwich.
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That’s their hope and it absolutely could happen. But they’d be in that position whether they drew or lost against Liverpool.

Had they won, they’d control their own destiny and also would still have a decent shot even if drawing the NLD.
 
Four points behind with three to play doesn't look great but they do play each other so if Spurs can win that and follow it up by beating Burnley then Arsenal go to Newcastle on the Monday night two points behind knowing that they have to win. I think saying it would take a collapse from Arsenal is a bit much but they're obviously in pole position right now. I don't have much faith in Everton causing them problems on the last day as they'll likely be safe by then but you never know. Obviously it all counts for nothing if Spurs don't win on Thursday.
 
Dave Smith said:
Chelsea probably only need 2 pts to get 4th tbf, they may not end up 3rd, but I still cannot see them finishing 5th with a 5 point cushion and a vastly superior GD and only 3 games left.

That said, may as well hand the Dippers the FA Cup.
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I think the fact that Arsenal and Tottenham have to play each other is a huge help. Any result in that game is helpful, if we beat Leeds. If Arsenal win, top 4 is done. If Spurs win, we have a 4 and 5 point cushion to both teams with 2 games remaining, one of which is Watford at home. I could see us losing or drawing vs Leeds though.
 
GoonerBear said:
I think they are gambling on beating us in the NLD & us dropping points at Newcastle or against Everton. We could still well do that.

Would be funny if we did but they failed to beat Burnley or Norwich.
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Think you're going to beat Everton easily as they'll probably be safe by then. Newcastle could, maybe, be tricky, but think their form got worse lately. To have any chance of top 4 Tottenham have to beat you but don't think they will.
 
BorisManUtd said:
Think you're going to beat Everton easily as they'll probably be safe by then. Newcastle could, maybe, be tricky, but think their form got worse lately. To have any chance of top 4 Tottenham have to beat you but don't think they will.
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Yeah that draw last night for Spurs looks very costly, hard to see Newcastle troubling Arsenal after the beating taken today.
 
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