The centre-forward market...

[BenitoSTARR]

It is meaningless, there are a lot of things to concern to do math like this. For example: You give score by ordinal numbers but if the gap between the 1st and 7th is small then you give the 1st one 7 points and the 7th 1 point => It is 7 times different for a <10% gap in real performance?

(I am a financial analyst and these non-sense numbers really made me annoying)

Spitting harsh truths here.

Appreciated the effort put into the post but it’s not a fair representation of the players without additional measures.

Unless you present the data in rank order and allow the reader to interpret as they see fit.

 

[Lash]

Thank you, I appreciate it. Dembele is not among the best with regards to defensive pressures, but not the worst either to be fair. The full "ranking overview" is below (remember that the higher number the better):
- Goals + Assists – PenaltiesGoals (Schick=7. Martinez=6. Dembele=5. Osimhen=4. Vlahovic=3. David=2. Toney = 1)
- non penalty Goals - expected Goals (Vlahovic=7. Schick=6. Martinez=5. Osimhen=4. Dembele=3. David=2. Toney=1)
- expected Assists (Toney=7, Vlahovic=6. Martinez=5. David=4. Dembele=3. Schick=2. Osimhen=1)
- Goal Creating Actions (Dembele=7. Schick=6. Martinez=5. Vlahovic=4. Toney=3. Osimhen=2. David=1)
- Dribble Success % (David=7. Dembele=6. Vlahovic=5. Schick=4. Osimhen=3. Toney=2. Martinez=1)
- Defensive pressures (David=7. Martinez=6. Osimhen=5. Toney=5. Dembele=3. Schick=2. Vlahovic=1)
- Clearances (Toney=7. Schick=6, Dembele=5. Osimhen=4. Vlahovic=3. David=2. Martinez=1)
- Aerial Duels Won % (Dembele=7. Toney=6. Schick=5. Vlahovic=4. Osimhen=3. Martinez=2. David=1)


Thanks.

Regarding January I absolutely agree with what you're saying. And yes, hopefully our previous scouting of him makes this an easy one to get over the line (provided that we've actually been scouting and having an interest in him previously).

With regards to a leftfield opportunity like Felix I can't personally see that happening, especially not in January, solely from a financial point of view even if Ronaldo is leaving as Atl.M would probably demand somewhere in the region of 80m euros. Perhaps in the summer though when/if we qualify for Champions League and have improved our finances.

Dembele now in January, and Joao Felix in the summer?

My point was more like getting the feeler that someone like Felix would want to move in the summer, would subsequently mean we don't go for someone like Demebele in Jan. We may look to a younger cheaper option to bolster the squad.

 

[northernsoul74]

How does David compare to Osimhen pre his move to Napoli? I know we were looking at Osimhen at Lille but he’s likely too expensive now. We likely have to identify the number 9 who can make the next step up before someone else takes the gamble.

 

[Red_Heisenberg]

If Kane is available and interested in joining we should be doing everything we can to get him.

Why take a gamble on someone who may take a while to acclimatise to the league and risk wasting players like casemiro and eriksens prime years, Kane alone with the improvements under ETH would push us to the edge of title contention, imo.

He's the perfect striker for the current system. He can link play, high out turn of assists and is the most prolific goalscorer over the last 5 years.

 

[croadyman]

If Kane is available and interested in joining we should be doing everything we can to get him.

Why take a gamble on someone who may take a while to acclimatise to the league and risk wasting players like casemiro and eriksens prime years, Kane alone with the improvements under ETH would push us to the edge of title contention, imo.

He's the perfect striker for the current system. He can link play, high out turn of assists and is the most prolific goalscorer over the last 5 years.

Just don't see Levy selling to us but you certainly make a valid point of needing to utilise Casemiro's & Eriksen's prime years

 

[Rolaholic]

 

[romufc]

If Kane is available and interested in joining we should be doing everything we can to get him.

Why take a gamble on someone who may take a while to acclimatise to the league and risk wasting players like casemiro and eriksens prime years, Kane alone with the improvements under ETH would push us to the edge of title contention, imo.

He's the perfect striker for the current system. He can link play, high out turn of assists and is the most prolific goalscorer over the last 5 years.

Kane I agree is the perfect striker, hold up, finishing, left foot, right foot, heading, he has it all really.

I am keen to see how much Spurs value him at considering he has 1 season left to go in his contract after this one.

 

[croadyman]

Kane I agree is the perfect striker, hold up, finishing, left foot, right foot, heading, he has it all really.

I am keen to see how much Spurs value him at considering he has 1 season left to go in his contract after this one.

High because he is their crown jewel,could live with no RB signing if we got some CB cover for Varane CM cover for Eriksen,Kane & Sesko in next two windows but no way will that happen.

 

[Baneofthegame]

Dembele is the most attainable in my opinion due to him being out of contract in the summer, you could get him for a lower fee and he would at least be serviceable for the short term.

 

[Remember the geese]

Dembele is the most attainable in my opinion due to him being out of contract in the summer, you could get him for a lower fee and he would at least be serviceable for the short term.

Not good enough.

 

[stefan92]

This could make sense for Leipzig to, as it doesn't make much sense for them to have Silva, Werner and Sesko. They signed Werner a bit out of the blue and waiving Sesko through would solve that awkward situation.

 

[Guapa]

Think Sesko would the right signing for us.

 

[Red_Heisenberg]

High because he is their crown jewel,could live with no RB signing if we got some CB cover for Varane CM cover for Eriksen,Kane & Sesko in next two windows but no way will that happen.

If we went for Timber he would be able to provide cover for both the CB and RB position. I think Kane and sesko might be pushing it though haha

 

[Erik the Red]

If we went for Timber he would be able to provide cover for both the CB and RB position. I think Kane and sesko might be pushing it though haha

I think it will be nearly impossible to get Kane for a reasonable fee whilst he is still under contract, and paying over £50m for a 30 year old (before next season starts) is a huge risk. Waiting another year to sign him as a 31 year old on a free is also a risk as it continues the issues of the past few years of relying on established older stop-gap players and will scare off younger players from joining. Although he is one of the few near certainties in the striker market, I think the Kane ship has sailed.

We should focus on the up and coming stars like Gakpo, Sesko and Endrick. Brobbey and Gakpo in January with Ronaldo leaving would be great business. Sesko may be available in the Summer, but Endrick can't join until he turns 18, which is the end of next season (he will be sold earlier, but cannot move to UK until 2024. These players may cost £150-180m over the next couple of years, so we would need to limit other spending, only paying big money for one midfielder (De Jong) and a goalkeeper (Costa), and try to get cover at right back (?) and centre back (Ndicka), and any other needs, for cheap / free.

 

[RedSky]

Amine Gouiri is doing very well for Rennes now. One to watch.

 

[croadyman]

I think it will be nearly impossible to get Kane for a reasonable fee whilst he is still under contract, and paying over £50m for a 30 year old (before next season starts) is a huge risk. Waiting another year to sign him as a 31 year old on a free is also a risk as it continues the issues of the past few years of relying on established older stop-gap players and will scare off younger players from joining. Although he is one of the few near certainties in the striker market, I think the Kane ship has sailed.

We should focus on the up and coming stars like Gakpo, Sesko and Endrick. Brobbey and Gakpo in January with Ronaldo leaving would be great business. Sesko may be available in the Summer, but Endrick can't join until he turns 18, which is the end of next season (he will be sold earlier, but cannot move to UK until 2024. These players may cost £150-180m over the next couple of years, so we would need to limit other spending, only paying big money for one midfielder (De Jong) and a goalkeeper (Costa), and try to get cover at right back (?) and centre back (Ndicka), and any other needs, for cheap / free.

Brobbey stuff has gone very quiet

 

[Messier1994]

Think Sesko would the right signing for us.

No doubt, I agree 100% with the notion that it doesn’t make sense to spend a ton on one signing when we have 3-4 glaring holes in the squad — but Sesko is one I would make an exception for. Like he is so good already that I would love to get him if he was 25 y/o. At 19 his potential is great. No comparison should be made with Haaland. But Sesko can definitely become a world class striker who like could be top 5-10 of his generation.

 

[Messier1994]

How expensive do you guys think Patrick Schick would be? I don’t know if there is any injury background, but he hasn’t always started for Leverkusen. I am sure he is on a hefty salary (for Leverkusen), if he could be had cheap, I don’t think that he is a bad option. He isn’t “great”, but as a big target forward he gives ETH a clear alternative against deep lying defenses. Schicks overall game is underrated, he plays a bit like a poor man’s Lewandowski. Can go deep and fetch the ball and score goals with his shot from range against a collected defense and so forth.

Like he isn’t great, but it wouldn’t be the first time a good experienced striker who have tackles of some goes to one of the biggest clubs and does better than expected. Berbatov comes to mind.

 

[croadyman]

Think Sesko would the right signing for us.

Be interesting to see what Erik could do with him

 

[Deleted 112447]

When it comes to big money, from the strikers on the market I think Kane is the only and best option. All the others have big issues IMO, often times being mediocre levels of technical ability and passing. We should either go big on Kane or find a more under the radar option for a reasonable price.

Having Kane, Martial and Rashford as our options would make us title contenders for the next 3 years IMO.

 

[troylocker]

Interesting to see the candidates that are being reported as our future center forward. One thing is 100% clear and that is that we need a new nr.9, and I would argue that we desperately need one already in January. But who? And is it even realistic that we can sign someone in January that is attainable, affordable, and good enough?

Due to a lack of other hobbies and out of interest I’ve tried to compare the “usual suspects” that we’re being linked with or the names that are regularly being thrown into the mix.
I’ve tried to statistically compare the players Osimhen, Vlahovic, Schick, David, Martinez, Toney and Dembele using certain stats from FBRef from the entire season of 21/22 to todays date as KPI’s. All stats are per 90 min.

Since we’re in need of center forward I’ve focused on some, in my opinion, key metrics such as;
- Goals + Assists - PenaltiesGoals,
- non penalty Goals - expected Goals,
- expected Assists,
- Goal Creating Actions,
- Dribble Success %,
- Defensive pressures,
- Clearances,
- Aerial Duels Won %.

I’ve compared each player and ranked them based on their performance on each metric, giving a maximum score of 7 to the highest performer and 1 to lowest performer.
I’ve then summarized the rankings(scores) from each KPI to see how they all compare.

Examples (the higher score the better):
- Goals + Assists – PenaltiesGoals (highest performer is Schick = score 7. Martinez = 6. Dembele = 5. Osimhen = 4. Vlahovic = 3. David = 2. Lowest performer is Toney = score 1)
- non penalty Goals - expected Goals (Vlahovic = 7. Toney = 1)
- expected Assists (Toney = 7, Osimhen = 1)
- Goal Creating Actions (Dembele = 7. David = 1)
- Dribble Success % (David = 7. Martinez = 1)
- Defensive pressures (David = 7. Vlahovic = 1)
- Clearances (Toney =7. Martinez =1)
- Aerial Duels Won % (Dembele =7. David = 1)
Surprisingly, after comparing and adding all these KPI’s together, the result is that Moussa Dembele has the best overall score.

The big positive from this is that Dembele is presumably also the one that is by far both the most attainable and affordable given his contract-situation (contract expiring in the summer). Transfermarkt values him at 18m euros, hence he should be a very realistic target to pursue already in January. I think he could prove to be a shrewd bit of business for whichever club that buys him, and I’m hoping that club is ours.
IMO Moussa Dembele fits perfectly fine into the mold of a modern center forward and what we need with power, pace, finishing abilities and technique and that he will offer us something that we don’t have in the squad now.

And if it doesn’t work out he wouldn’t be to costly and should be possible to move on with a very limited loss… Low risk, high reward.

Total scores
Dembele 39
Schick 38
Vlahovic 34
Toney 32
Martinez 31
David 27
Osimhen 26

Good post, but....
I think there are some flaws in your system of rating (I'm a numbers junkie myself). Even if I agree that these are the key metrics for strikers, they can't be weighted equally. For strikers it has to be more weighted towards goalscoring and production and less towards other attributes. For me the 3 attributes on top is most important with workrate trumping dribbling and other attributes. In this system the best goalscorer and the best clearer of the ball are the same level of striker if they equal the rest, and that makes no sense. Also getting a 1 in this system doesn't make you 7 times worse at an attribute than a 7, meaning that the scale for each metric should go from 0-100 or something similar, where you can balance the difference in the players actual qualities better than ranking them 1-7, if you see what I mean.

Context is also important. What league and what team they play for also plays a big role.
Example: What Mbappe does for PSG in Ligue 1 can't really be compared to what Toney does for Brentford in the PL, because Toney has so much tougher working conditions than Mbappe.
Example: Schick for instance had a really good and kind of a 1 off season last year, and looks back to his normal self or even worse without Wirtz behind him this season. Stuff like this also matters.

Main example: Dembele looks to have fallen off a cliff with Lacazette back at Lyon this season, just like he went missing with Depay playing well in 20/21. Doesn't score, doesn't assists (a combinded xA of 0,06 over his 9 games this season in Ligue A, 0,01xA/90) and doesn't start regularly. While he did really well last season when he was the main man. Does anyone think he would become anything more than a rotational player here?

I would go for a younger player that accepts sharing minutes and being rotated. If we could get Moukoko off Dortmunds hands that would be my first pick. He would be cheaper than Toney, Vlahovic, Martinez, David and Osimhen and maybe more expensive than Schick and definitely more expensive than Dembele. Vlahovic has worrying low workrate numbers, but other than that they would probably all do a decent job for us. It's hard to imagine any of them exploding into the scene here. With Moukoko that is a slim but real posibility.

 

[Erik the Red]

I wrote this on the "priorities" thread, but it is probably more relevant here...

Ronaldo is finished, Greenwood is finished, and Martial misses around 20 games a season due to injury.

The problem is that there are very few outstanding strikers around. Ronaldo, Messi, Benzema and Lewandowski are all in the twighlight of their careers, and Kane is not far behind, and will cost a fortune for a depreciating asset.

The two outstanding young talents are also unattainable. Haaland is with our biggest rivals and Mbappe is tied into a ridiculous contract at PSG.

Of the other strikers, there are many with potential, but they all seem to have obvious flaws and crazy price tags. None of Matrinez, Osimhen, David, or any of the others discussed are at the elite level of those mentioned above, and I doubt any will reach those levels.

I think the two most interesting young prospects are Sesko and Endrick, and would be excited to get either, but they are both very speculative, and Endrick can't actually join until he is 18.

Gakpo is another interesting player, but is not really an out-and-out striker, so even if we brought him in, we would probably have to bring in someone else as well.

I think Brobbey, whilst limited, could do a job, and would be an interesting player to have as a squad player to come in with one or more of the aforementioned players. I think Endrick could potentially play as a 9 or a 10, which means he could lead the line on his own, or play alongside Sesko / Brobbey / Gakpo.

Remember that we had 4 first team strikers in the great 99 team (Cole, Yorke, Sheringham and Solskjaer) which provided the squad depth to win a treble. Now we can use more substitutes, and when the manager wants to mix things up a bit, it is likely the strikers that will be changed.

Imagine ETH having to select a front line from Sesko, Endrick, Brobbey, Gakpo, Antony, Rashford, Sancho, Garnacho and Pellistri. (I expect Ronaldo, Greenwood, Martial, Amad and Elanga to have limited opportunities once the above players are brought in over the next few windows.)

 

[sullydnl]

Kane might be the best striker mentioned here but I'm not sure I agree that he's the perfect profile.

So much of what has been good about him in the last few seasons has been his willingness to vacate the CF position to get involved in play and create for others. Which has been great for Spurs but isn't currently what's missing from our team at all imo.

Rather we're missing someone who occupies that CF position and doesn't vacate it to get involved in play, instead offering a presence in the box and the sort of constant off-the-ball movement that harries and drags the opposition backline. Because one of the issues with our current options is that they all already have a tendency to drift out of those central areas as is.

And I'm not sure you get the best out of the current version of Kane by using him in a role where he doesn't look to get involved in play as much but instead focuses on getting into the best positions for others to create for him.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Kane might be the best striker mentioned here but I'm not sure I agree that he's the perfect profile.

So much of what has been good about him in the last few seasons has been his willingness to vacate the CF position to get involved in play and create for others. Which has been great for Spurs but isn't currently what's missing from our team at all imo.

Rather we're missing someone who occupies that CF position and doesn't vacate it to get involved in play, instead offering a presence in the box and the sort of constant off-the-ball movement that harries and drags the opposition backline. Because one of the issues with our current options is that they all already have a tendency to drift out of those central areas as is.

And I'm not sure you get the best out of the current version of Kane by using him in a role where he doesn't look to get involved in play as much but instead focuses on getting into the best positions for others to create for him.

I don’t see it as an issue given he’s perfectly capable of playing penalty box striker. You wouldn’t need to re coach him to keep him up top.

A fully fit Harry Kane flanked by Rashford/Antony would be very similar to Son/Kane/Kulusevski

 

[Valencia Shin Crosses]

Kane might be the best striker mentioned here but I'm not sure I agree that he's the perfect profile.

So much of what has been good about him in the last few seasons has been his willingness to vacate the CF position to get involved in play and create for others. Which has been great for Spurs but isn't currently what's missing from our team at all imo.

Rather we're missing someone who occupies that CF position and doesn't vacate it to get involved in play, instead offering a presence in the box and the sort of constant off-the-ball movement that harries and drags the opposition backline. Because one of the issues with our current options is that they all already have a tendency to drift out of those central areas as is.

And I'm not sure you get the best out of the current version of Kane by using him in a role where he doesn't look to get involved in play as much but instead focuses on getting into the best positions for others to create for him.

We've looked our best in the short amount of time Martial has gotten to play upfront and then Rashford comes off of the left with the constant bending runs. That's the sort of profile that fits because Martial is elite with his back towards goal and bringing others into play while Ronaldo is a basic poacher that can't run in behind or play with his back towards goal, and Rashford is horrific at it.

So the theory is Kane can provide the same level of hold up play and technicality along with top tier finishing. I don't want him because we aren't getting him for less than 80m and quite frankly spending that much on someone that is on the wrong side of 30 and already has a huge reputation scares the shit out of me.

 

[Strelok]

I don't want him because we aren't getting him for less than 80m and quite frankly spending that much on someone that is on the wrong side of 30 and already has a huge reputation scares the shit out of me.

Imo it might be not that expensive. For Spurs of course they'll have to sell him next summer. But the one who would have the biggest say in all this imo is Kane. He's only another year from a free transfer by then.

Kane has won feck all so imo he'd want a club that is at least challenging for CL, and PL if possible. And can give him a starting position. The list of clubs who tick both that boxes is quite short imo. So imo if we can be somewhat back to the top level, or at least look like about to and play in the CL next season we'd have a chance for say £50m. Lewandowski who also had one year left in his contract cost Barca €50m so I'd say that is a fair price.

Kane and Lewandoski are actually quite similar imo. Both are not very fast and their playing style doesn't rely on pace. So imo Kane who is 29 yo now has at least 5 years left including this season. And as I said above we shouldn't worry about his motivation. He has won feck all.

 

[BerryBerryShrew]

Imo it might be not that expensive. For Spurs of course they'll have to sell him next summer. But the one who would have the biggest say in all this imo is Kane. He's only another year from a free transfer by then.

Kane has won feck all so imo he'd want a club that is at least challenging for CL, and PL if possible. And can give him a starting position. The list of clubs who tick both that boxes are quite short. So imo if we can be somewhat back to the top level, or at least look like about to and play in the CL next season we'd have a chance for say £50m. Lewandowski who also had one year left in his contract cost Barca €50m so I'd say that is a fair price.

Kane and Lewandoski are actually quite similar imo. Both are not very fast and their playing style doesn't rely on pace. So imo Kane who is 29 yo now has at least 5 years left including this season. And as I said above we shouldn't worry about his motivation. He has won feck all.

If Daniel Levy had the choice between Spurs winning a CL and PL double or overcharging Man United for a player, he'd have to seriously think about it. He'll want £80m for him (from us specifically: €50m would do the trick from Bayern) and if that doesn't happen he'll hope that Spurs fans will pressure & abuse Kane into signing a new deal.

 

[Strelok]

If Daniel Levy had the choice between Spurs winning a CL and PL double or overcharging Man United for a player, he'd have to seriously think about it. He'll want £80m for him (from us specifically: €50m would do the trick from Bayern) and if that doesn't happen he'll hope that Spurs fans will pressure & abuse Kane into signing a new deal.

I'd say Levy would have two choices: let Kane walk on a free or 50m now. And I don't think Kane would be daft enough to sign a new contract.

But yeah it's true Bayern would be his dream destination. If we want Kane we'd have to seriously compete again. Or at least look the sort.

 

[Valencia Shin Crosses]

If Daniel Levy had the choice between Spurs winning a CL and PL double or overcharging Man United for a player, he'd have to seriously think about it. He'll want £80m for him (from us specifically: €50m would do the trick from Bayern) and if that doesn't happen he'll hope that Spurs fans will pressure & abuse Kane into signing a new deal.

This. I just see 0 reality in which Levy gives him to us for anything below 80m considering how much of a cnut he's historically been. Would love to be proven wrong, as 50m for Kane is a much better deal as it would allow us to potentially grab another young striker to be his understudy as well instead of running him into the ground

 

[Escobar]

Think Sesko would the right signing for us.

Is he really good enough? Seems like the hype has cooled down big time

 

[Garethw]

Is he really good enough? Seems like the hype has cooled down big time

He’d be a project signing. One you take a punt on at £20-£30 million. But they’ll want well over £60 million and for that price it needs to be for an established and prolific striker.

 

[Rozay]

Osimhen got two so far today against Sassuolo, 23 minutes gone.

 

[Rolaholic]

He's an elite talent, shame he'll cost record money

 

[bosnian_red]

Osimhen, Felix, Lautaro for elite/100m+ options.
Toney, Gakpo and convert to a central player for mid tier/cheaper options.
Sesko probably not until 2024 or 2025.

 

[Rozay]

While I’m not 100% sold on Osimhen (quite sold though) - the most impressive attribute he has for me is a clear hunger to score goals. That can’t be underestimated in this ‘modern’ game with forward players who often want to do everything but.

 

[Rolaholic]

He missed a bunch of games too

 

[giorno]

This guy offers the same threat in behind of Rashford, but pairs it up with better, more varied and relentless runs, and a genuine box presence against deep blocks. The downside is that he's not a great link up player, rarely drops deeper or shows up for the ball for it and his touch is erratic. He'd definitely improve United though and is imo the best you could do for the role. Would cost a bomb though, for sure. Record money for the PL or thereabout

 

[Rozay]

This guy offers the same threat in behind of Rashford, but pairs it up with better, more varied and relentless runs, and a genuine box presence against deep blocks. The downside is that he's not a great link up player, rarely drops deeper or shows up for the ball for it and his touch is erratic. He'd definitely improve United though and is imo the best you could do for the role. Would cost a bomb though, for sure. Record money for the PL or thereabout

I’m torn on him, he could go either way. It really depends on the team he joins. He could score a load of goals, or he could just as easily find himself in a situation where his weaknesses on the ball are exposed. He has some similarities to Haaland. You simply don’t want them having too many touches in a game, because if they do - they are likely hindering the team. Haaland is also a poor link player, but a ruthless goalscorer. We are yet to see if Osimhen can take his goalscoring to a level that renders all other aspects irrelevant - but unless he’s scoring 30 a season, then he is not the man for a top club as he is too poor a footballer.

 

[giorno]

Dunno, I think the pressure he puts on the defence alone is worth it. Even without scoring a lot his movement opens things up for his teammates. And while he's got real hunger for goals he's also unselfish enough to make runs specifically to open up space for others

 

[VorZakone]

While I’m not 100% sold on Osimhen (quite sold though) - the most impressive attribute he has for me is a clear hunger to score goals. That can’t be underestimated in this ‘modern’ game with forward players who often want to do everything but.

Yeah, dude brings so much energy and intensity, it is contagious!