Surveillance Draft- Final: Tuppet vs PatBepo

[Moby]

Because he's being asked to do it for an hour, not for season after season.

What? The credibility of doing that job is evaluated based on their careers. Is Yaya Toure as good a central defender as Jaap Stam and Fabio Cannavaro now based on a couple of games, games where it's widely agreed that were won in other areas? Even if he had done a Baresi 1994-esque defensive masterclass this would have been a ridiculous argument. Surprising, really, to see something like this coming from such a knowledgable poster. I get that people wanna try and avoid the match slipping into a one-sided contest for the sake of the interest but that sub there pretty much ends this game, if anyone's being honest.

One of the more frustrating part of these things off late has been people fancying entirely unlikely scenarios for the sake of it and usually banked on the weakest of arguments such as this one. We do the 3-year peaks as a standard measure but it's a rather piss-take when an entire career of a centre back is being measured against an emergency sub who happens to be a luxury attacking midfielder. Gotta feel for the manager who has to endure that sort.

 

[Moby]

I don't get the massive overreactions to injuries.

Oh I can just imagine if you were in Tuppet's place right now.

 

[Physiocrat]

60min update.

No injuries to either side

 

[Enigma_87]

Because he's being asked to do it for an hour, not for season after season.

I don't get it. So you can put Carrick there and it would make no difference because he played in some games as a CB and done a good job?

Yaya Toure is not a CB. Even if he is some kind of Mascherano CB/DM hybrid role I don't trust him to do the same job as Ciro Ferrara who is btw Pat/Sjor best defender on the pitch. Far from it. Unfortunately but it decides the game. If Tuppet got an injury that early to pretty much everybody it will have the same effect IMO, especially in such a fine margin between the two teams(at least for me).

Being asked to do a job for 60 mins is pretty much the whole game. To not to have effect on the scoreline is like starting Yaya before Ferrara and expect no drop of quality which of course is mental.

Injuries/red cards do happen and while sometimes teams cope, other times they are pretty much decisive to a game.

 

[Gio]

What? The credibility of doing that job is evaluated based on their careers. Is Yaya Toure as good a central defender as Jaap Stam and Fabio Cannavaro now based on a couple of games, games where it's widely agreed that were won in other areas? Even if he had done a Baresi 1994-esque defensive masterclass this would have been a ridiculous argument. Surprising, really, to see something like this coming from such a knowledgable poster. I get that people wanna try and avoid the match slipping into a one-sided contest for the sake of the interest but that sub there pretty much ends this game, if anyone's being honest.

One of the more frustrating part of these things off late has been people fancying entirely unlikely scenarios for the sake of it and usually banked on the weakest of arguments such as this one. We do the 3-year peaks as a standard measure but it's a rather piss-take when an entire career of a centre back is being measured against an emergency sub who happens to be a luxury attacking midfielder. Gotta feel for the manager who has to endure that sort.

It's obviously a blow, probably a decisive one for Pat and Bepo. And nobody is saying that he's on par with any of the other defenders on the park. They all boast grand CVs while Toure just has his attributes and a couple of good games there in a Champions League semi-final and final.

But I'm looking at it within the context of this game. As far as I'm concerned Eto'o will be mostly the focus of Silva particularly in dealing with the threat in behind. So Toure's job is mostly about either attacking the first ball - which he can do well enough because he's a brick shithouse - and flowing the play through his ability on the ball - which he'd be brilliant at. The job of a centre-half has changed from the 1990s when there was less ball retention and more two-man striking partnerships. Now facing a single line-leader means that the central defensive partnership needs to have a different and more expansive set of skills, which Toure with the right partner fits in a lot of ways.

It's not always just about the weakest link. If Capello in 1994 or Guardiola in 2009 had presented their makeshift defences to the Caf, I'm sure we'd have voted them out of the game.

1994 Milan - Panucci, Maldini, Galli, Tassotti (against Romario and Stoichkov)
2009 Barca - Sylvinho, Pique, Toure, Puyol (against Ronaldo and Rooney)

Or you can extend that to other Champions League finals:

1997 Dortmund - Lambert v Zidane - no fecking chance / Chapuisat v Montero/Ferrara - not buying that either
1999 United midfield - Blomqvist, Butt, unproven CM Beckham, wrong side Giggs - no way.

I get that it's tight and weakest links can be punished, but usually what happens elsewhere on the park is more influential to the outcome of the game.

 

[Moby]

It's not always just about the weakest link. If Capello in 1994 or Guardiola in 2009 had presented their makeshift defences to the Caf, I'm sure we'd have voted them out of the game.

Yeah, and rightly so. 1994 was an upset, as far as I know we aren't voting for upsets here.

As for 2009, unless Pat's team can boast of dominating the possession like they did and protecting their defense, through that, it's a moot point. As long as Eto'o and Forlan are getting the ball enough amount of times to attack that CB duo, they will easily find in roads, with Zidane providing the penetration. Silva alone cannot handle Eto'o, Yaya will have to cover for him and that is suicidal. It isn't even a CB who's been brought in here, it's a bloke he's usually not arsed to put a shift in midfield, let alone do a defensive duty against one of the deadliest strikers in the game playing ahead of an all time great playmaker. It's a hipster argument if I ever saw one.

 

[Enigma_87]

That 1994 final is very misleading. Galli played a lot of games for that team and while he was no Costacurta or Baresi he was solid performer. There is also Desailly and Albertini protecting the CB's and two hard working wide midfielders in Boban and Donadoni.

That team won as a unit much and was underestimated by that Barca dream team. Here the margin is almost non existent so it's unlikely that will happen.

Besides I trust either Galli or Maldini to do a better job than makeshift Yaya as CB.

The 2009 Barca team is another kettle of fish. That midfield just won't give you much time on the ball and opportunities to punish Yaya at CB.

 

[Šjor Bepo]

Spoiler: something arrived to the stadium so we are making another sub....

 

[Gio]

Yeah, and rightly so. 1994 was an upset, as far as I know we aren't voting for upsets here.

As for 2009, unless Pat's team can boast of dominating the possession like they did and protecting their defense, through that, it's a moot point. As long as Eto'o and Forlan are getting the ball enough amount of times to attack that CB duo, they will easily find in roads, with Zidane providing the penetration. Silva alone cannot handle Eto'o, Yaya will have to cover for him and that is suicidal. It isn't even a CB who's been brought in here, it's a bloke he's usually not arsed to put a shift in midfield, let alone do a defensive duty against one of the deadliest strikers in the game playing ahead of an all time great playmaker. It's a hipster argument if I ever saw one.

You could have made similar arguments in 2009 when (a) possession was 51/49 so it wasn't anything like the typical Barcelona and Spain approach of that era, and (b) United had Ronaldo and Rooney - a comparable or arguably even stronger pairing than Eto'o/Forlan.

It's the way we analyse these games. It's always about identifying the weakest links. Yet teams regularly win trophies despite having the weakest link on the park because they have complementary players and develop a system that protects them. Fundamentally I see the collective totality of what's going on amongst the other 20 players usually more important than an individual battle.

I don't get it. So you can put Carrick there and it would make no difference because he played in some games as a CB and done a good job?

Yaya Toure is not a CB. Even if he is some kind of Mascherano CB/DM hybrid role I don't trust him to do the same job as Ciro Ferrara who is btw Pat/Sjor best defender on the pitch. Far from it. Unfortunately but it decides the game. If Tuppet got an injury that early to pretty much everybody it will have the same effect IMO, especially in such a fine margin between the two teams(at least for me).

Being asked to do a job for 60 mins is pretty much the whole game. To not to have effect on the scoreline is like starting Yaya before Ferrara and expect no drop of quality which of course is mental.

Injuries/red cards do happen and while sometimes teams cope, other times they are pretty much decisive to a game.

What's with the hyperbole? I didn't say that it wouldn't make any difference. I acknowledged it would because he lacks pedigree there, but it's not beyond the realms of reason that Pat/Bepo might get over the line with it for all the various reasons previously stated.

 

[antohan]

Yeah, and rightly so. 1994 was an upset, as far as I know we aren't voting for upsets here.

That 1994 final is very misleading. Galli played a lot of games for that team and while he was no Costacurta or Baresi he was solid performer.

Make up your mind guys.

Never an upset in my book. It was Milan, they had lost some pizzazz and missed some players, but it was still Milan.

There is also Desailly and Albertini protecting the CB's and two hard working wide midfielders in Boban and Donadoni.

Sure, that's a relevant point, and for all my rating of Schweini and Lucho, Pat's midfield is better constructed and affords that defence more protection.

Nobody is saying Yaya will be better than Stam/Cannavaro. The question is whether Thiago and Yaya can contain Eto'o and Forlán.

As it stands, my main issue is their relative positions rather than Yaya being there. I think it further upsets the defence to switch Thiago's side, maybe more so than the Yaya/Ciro differential.

I reckon Yaya wouldn't be bad at all minding Diego's runs from deeper positions.

 

[Šjor Bepo]

@Physiocrat
4 votes behind with controversial Yaya at CB, cant see an comeback from that with current team so decision was made, lets show some team spirit and help out our teammate with putting the whole team under the light of controversy.

Spoiler: Time to sit down Yaya, cake arrived.

In Yaya's honour we turned WM into M&M. Last final push. High press with 5/6(Vidal is the sixth man as he has the energy and athletic capabilities to do it) bodies up front to ensure ball stays on the other half of the pitch or to force a long ball for what we are ready and comfortable. We put another match-winner on the pitch as well as hard worker, you can say a lot of things about Nani but one thing i always loved about him(even though i didnt like him at the start of his United career) is his desire and willingness to work for the team. Lets see how would tuppets back 5 react to the high press, will be very tricky i guess.

 

[Moby]

Yet teams regularly win trophies despite having the weakest link on the park because they have complementary players and develop a system that protects them.

That's not the case here though. It's an absolutely out of position player who doesn't match the required body of work remotely. What you are referring to relates more to having Wes Brown in an back five of Evra, Vidic, Rio, VDS and Brown in a CL final, not having a completely unsuited to that position makeshift sub. FYI before the 09 final there were massive doubts over their defense and we came close to score twice or thrice within the first ten minutes, only to waste the chances. Anyway, using hindsight to make a prediction on paper is pretty weak, I'm honestly surprised this is a discussion. Defeats the entire purpose of picking players who have done the same job over and over again countless times against one who did it once in special circumstances and is suddenly not going to cost the game to his team if he's asked to do it again. What's the point of having any discussion if you are gonna tow the 'anything can happen in football' line.

Meh. The defense will be run ragged 9/10 times, as fashionable and hip it might be for some to highlight that one as opposed to the nine, I'd rather stick with what's the logical outcome here and not sound completely mental.

 

[Gio]

That's not the case here though. It's an absolutely out of position player who doesn't match the required body of work remotely. What you are referring to relates more to having Wes Brown in an back five of Evra, Vidic, Rio, VDS and Brown in a CL final, not having a completely unsuited to that position makeshift sub. FYI before the 09 final there were massive doubts over their defense and we came close to score twice or thrice within the first ten minutes, only to waste the chances. Anyway, using hindsight to make a prediction on paper is pretty weak, I'm honestly surprised this is a discussion. Defeats the entire purpose of picking players who have done the same job over and over again countless times against one who did it once in special circumstances and is suddenly not going to cost the game to his team if he's asked to do it again. What's the point of having any discussion if you are gonna tow the 'anything can happen in football' line.

Meh. The defense will be run ragged 9/10 times, as fashionable and hip it might be for some to highlight that one as opposed to the nine, I'd rather stick with what's the logical outcome here and not sound completely mental.

Again, stop being so black and white. Football's more nuanced than a simple 'injury > player out of position > game over' as we've seen in various big games over the years. It's not optimal but teams adapt all the time. It could be decisive, but previous evidence shows they could still get over the line. I don't really get the Wes Brown point - Yaya played in a back four against two world-class strikers as Barcelona kept a clean sheet in a major final. It's a similar gig to what he's got here.

 

[Enigma_87]

What's with the hyperbole? I didn't say that it wouldn't make any difference. I acknowledged it would because he lacks pedigree there, but it's not beyond the realms of reason that Pat/Bepo might get over the line with it for all the various reasons previously stated.

Because it's a huge drop in quality when you lose Ferrara and sub a makeshift DM in. Sure 2 out of 10 that team could probably cope but the other 8 times it is decisive in a tight game. If we're betting on probability here I'd say it's a big loss which could pretty much decide the game.

Especially with Eto'o attacking the space against Toure.

You can put Carrick for example in there to the same effect - sure some times the team will cope but I can't see it in the majority of cases. It really depends on how you see the game unfolding and if you are voting for a possible upset or the majority of the cases which most likely will be decisive.

 

[Moby]

Yaya played in a back four against two world-class strikers as Barcelona kept a clean sheet in a major final. It's a similar gig to what he's got here.

Simply ask yourself, if there was a repeat of the exact same game, would he keep the clean sheet again? What if the game was repeated 10 times?

'injury > player out of position > game over'

More often than not, that is what happens, in the nuanced game of football.

 

[antohan]

That's not the case here though. It's an absolutely out of position player who doesn't match the required body of work remotely. What you are referring to relates more to having Wes Brown in an back five of Evra, Vidic, Rio, VDS and Brown in a CL final, not having a completely unsuited to that position makeshift sub. FYI before the 09 final there were massive doubts over their defense and we came close to score twice or thrice within the first ten minutes, only to waste the chances. Anyway, using hindsight to make a prediction on paper is pretty weak, I'm honestly surprised this is a discussion. Defeats the entire purpose of picking players who have done the same job over and over again countless times against one who did it once in special circumstances and is suddenly not going to cost the game to his team if he's asked to do it again. What's the point of having any discussion if you are gonna tow the 'anything can happen in football' line.

Meh. The defense will be run ragged 9/10 times, as fashionable and hip it might be for some to highlight that one as opposed to the nine, I'd rather stick with what's the logical outcome here and not sound completely mental.

What the hell? Wes was immense in our CL winning season.

I stand by Yaya being a reasonable option if set against Forlán (not Eto'o). Not that it was laid out like that.

In any case, it's moot, I don't buy this latest gung-ho switch, a far worse option than having Yaya at the back.

 

[antohan]

Because it's a huge drop in quality when you lose Ferrara and sub a makeshift DM in. Sure 2 out of 10 that team could probably cope but the other 8 times it is decisive in a tight game. If we're betting on probability here I'd say it's a big loss which could pretty much decide the game.

Especially with Eto'o attacking the space against Toure.

You can put Carrick for example in there to the same effect - sure some times the team will cope but I can't see it in the majority of cases. It really depends on how you see the game unfolding and if you are voting for a possible upset or the majority of the cases which most likely will be decisive.

A big difference is pace and physique here. Carrick would be more likely to struggle with both Eto'o and Forlán than Yaya, while I'd probably prefer Carrick's brain against Ruud. Ideally you want specialists, obviously, but failing that you want attributes that match the challenge at hand, which was the case here.

 

[Šjor Bepo]

Simply ask yourself, if there was a repeat of the exact same game, would he keep the clean sheet again? What if the game was repeated 10 times?

Not important to the game as Yaya is subbed so without any bias i can say that Barca would keep the clean sheet 5+ out of 10 games and won in 8 or 9, they were on another level unfortunately for us. If we had Fletcher(that red card against Arsenal was a disgrace) available the odds would got better for us but i doubt that would change much.

 

[Gio]

Because it's a huge drop in quality when you lose Ferrara and sub a makeshift DM in. Sure 2 out of 10 that team could probably cope but the other 8 times it is decisive in a tight game. If we're betting on probability here I'd say it's a big loss which could pretty much decide the game.

Especially with Eto'o attacking the space against Toure.

You can put Carrick for example in there to the same effect - sure some times the team will cope but I can't see it in the majority of cases. It really depends on how you see the game unfolding and if you are voting for a possible upset or the majority of the cases which most likely will be decisive.

Ultimately if you saw PatBepo winning pre-change, this would bring it down to 50/50. If you were split, then this swings it to Tuppet's favour. If you voted Tuppet already, then this is the nail in the coffin.

It's in that first scenario that you need to consider to what extent Tuppet is set up to exploit the relative weakness and how well PatBepo is set up to accommodate it. It's not just a simple 'game over' result.

Regarding Carrick, I wouldn't be as convinced because he lacks much of Toure's physicality and I'm struggling to think of any major matches he's done that job well (could be corrected on that though).

 

[Moby]

I stand by Yaya being a reasonable option if set against Forlán

Like I said, that's mental, when you consider that players get marked down for having 1 season less at the top than his counterpart and here we have a bloke masquerading in a final on the back of a solitary good game in that position. It's a mockery of the whole concept, nothing less than that.

 

[Gio]

What's really hipster @Moby is you arguing against a Redondo-led side and me against a Brian Godrup side.

 

[Physiocrat]

Like I said, that's mental, when you consider that players get marked down for having 1 season less at the top than his counterpart and here we have a bloke masquerading in a final on the back of a solitary good game in that position. It's a mockery of the whole concept, nothing less than that.

The issue here is how to incorporate a genuine in game stop gap change with the standard draft evaluation method. The way I'd see would be if Yaya had started I wouldn't have bought it much using my typical draft specs however as a single in-game change I can see him doing a decent job. This is possibly an unexpected problem with subs.

 

[Moby]

Not important to the game as Yaya is subbed so without any bias i can say that Barca would keep the clean sheet 5+ out of 10 games and won in 8 or 9, they were on another level unfortunately for us. If we had Fletcher(that red card against Arsenal was a disgrace) available the odds would got better for us but i doubt that would change much.

We literally created clear cut chances in the first 10 minutes of the game and the game would have been different if Eto'o hadn't scored then. I'm not asked if we had won or not, we would have lost 7-8/10 times but not with a Barca clean sheet having a back 4 that contained Sylvinho and Yaya Toure.

 

[Moby]

What's really hipster @Moby is you arguing against a Redondo-led side and me against a Brian Godrup side.

Haha, I'm actually arguing against the notion of having a one game wonder (sounds fecking ridiculous when 1 SEASON wonders are barely entertained) against someone who picked players with infinitely better credentials. Period.

 

[Moby]

The issue here is how to incorporate a genuine in game stop gap change with the standard draft evaluation method. The way I'd see would be if Yaya had started I wouldn't have bought it much using my typical draft specs however as a single in-game change I can see him doing a decent job. This is possibly an unexpected problem with subs.

Mate like I told Gio the entire discussion becomes pointless if you can use the 'can do a job' as a serious argument. Players far, far worse than the worst players picked here can 'do a job' and have done before, that's not what we are discussing here, or usually do at least.

 

[Gio]

We literally created clear cut chances in the first 10 minutes of the game and the game would have been different if Eto'o hadn't scored then. I'm not asked if we had won or not, we would have lost 7-8/10 times but not with a Barca clean sheet having a back 4 that contained Sylvinho and Yaya Toure.

That was part of my point about fit for the job in hand. Yaya's athleticism/power matched up well to Drogba in the semi and Ronaldo in the final. Meanwhile, Eto'o's pace and quickness exposed Vidic for the first goal. Here we had the more mobile Silva detailed to Eto'o which is a better fit IMO. Attribute-wise it's not a bad match-up at all, if it's solely about pedigree then it's game over for sure.

 

[Gio]

The issue here is how to incorporate a genuine in game stop gap change with the standard draft evaluation method. The way I'd see would be if Yaya had started I wouldn't have bought it much using my typical draft specs however as a single in-game change I can see him doing a decent job. This is possibly an unexpected problem with subs.

It's been a good pilot. I reckon it might be better suited to a single injury/red card style event in the second half (it's not often stuff happens at 30 minutes). And with a bigger bench than 3 players - again if the idea is realism, we have 5 or 7 men benches throughout the professional game now.

 

[Moby]

That was part of my point about fit for the job in hand. Yaya's athleticism/power matched up well to Drogba in the semi and Ronaldo in the final. Meanwhile, Eto'o's pace and quickness exposed Vidic for the first goal. Here we had the more mobile Silva detailed to Eto'o which is a better fit IMO. Attribute-wise it's not a bad match-up at all, if it's solely about pedigree then it's game over for sure.

Even in terms of attributes, it is only the physical attributes that match up in any way. The defensive mentality, intelligence (against someone with the composure and movement of Eto'o), reading of the game (with Zidane pulling the strings), positioning, concentration, etc simply falls apart.

In other words, he's not a defender.

 

[Gio]

Even in terms of attributes, it is only the physical attributes that match up in any way. The defensive mentality, intelligence (against someone with the composure and movement of Eto'o), reading of the game (with Zidane pulling the strings), positioning, concentration, etc simply falls apart.

In other words, he's not a defender.

He excelled as the defensive midfield anchor for Barcelona during 2008/09. It worked because he didn't have to do a lot of running, just be positionally disciplined behind the ball, read the game well and move the ball fluidly. Off the ball he was very solid IMO and Barca lost a little aerial presence and 1v1 physicality when Busquets came in (but benefited from a slicker one-touch merchant and a much smaller ego). That's why I thought he was capable of dropping a few yards deeper to do what he did at the end of 2008/09.

 

[Enigma_87]

Make up your mind guys.

Never an upset in my book. It was Milan, they had lost some pizzazz and missed some players, but it was still Milan.



Sure, that's a relevant point, and for all my rating of Schweini and Lucho, Pat's midfield is better constructed and affords that defence more protection.

Nobody is saying Yaya will be better than Stam/Cannavaro. The question is whether Thiago and Yaya can contain Eto'o and Forlán.

As it stands, my main issue is their relative positions rather than Yaya being there. I think it further upsets the defence to switch Thiago's side, maybe more so than the Yaya/Ciro differential.

I reckon Yaya wouldn't be bad at all minding Diego's runs from deeper positions.

I didn't say it was an upset anto. Barca just underestimated them. Otherwise it was a pretty sound defensively Milan team that was very dangerous on counters. My post was more in answer to Gio for the makeshift defense - it was well protected by the midfield.

 

[antohan]

We literally created clear cut chances in the first 10 minutes of the game and the game would have been different if Eto'o hadn't scored then. I'm not asked if we had won or not, we would have lost 7-8/10 times but not with a Barca clean sheet having a back 4 that contained Sylvinho and Yaya Toure.

I know where you are coming from. I distinctly remember how on top we were and Eto'o changed the course of the game. I was also saluvating at all the dirty stuff we would do to that backline... We didn't.

That's still not the point. I'm not invoking a one game wonder but rather agreeing that in an emergency situation that's viable.

Not viable with Yaya v. Sammy, possible with Yayá breaking up Forlán's moves. 30mins vs. 60mins was the other issue, obviously.

The alternative of not even having someone helping Thiago made my vote switch very simple though.

 

[antohan]

I didn't say it was an upset anto. Barca just underestimated them. Otherwise it was a pretty sound defensively Milan team that was very dangerous on counters. My post was more in answer to Gio for the makeshift defense - it was well protected by the midfield.

No, you didn't. I was referring to how you were both arguing against Gio's 1994 point with radically different views (Aldo calling it an upset/exception and you pretty much explaining why it wasn't because that was a bloody good side).

 

[Moby]

I'm not invoking a one game wonder but rather agreeing that in an emergency situation that's viable.

I agree with @Physiocrat that this is a rather new scenario where a sub is covering an injury, and how we evaluate those as opposed to the traditional evaluation that takes place which probably needs to be outlined if we are to continue with this model.

Even still, viability isn't the question, the question is will that be enough for Tuppet to take this game, looking at the complete picture, and there's only one answer to that.

 

[Gio]

Congratulations @Tuppet - well deserved throughout the tournament.

 

[antohan]

Glad to see Lucho finally get a win after being played all over the park. Well deserved

 

[Šjor Bepo]

congrats @Tuppet , we didnt really deserved to be here in the first place so im glad you won it, specially as you have a great team.

 

[Enigma_87]

Congrats @Tuppet ! Very well drafted and you were due a win after all those finals

 

[Invictus]

Congratulations @Tuppet! Well deserved after all the final heartbreaks, probably the most consistently good manager to not win a draft (prior to this one, of course).

On the other hand, was rooting for Bepo too, so: .

 

[Ecstatic]

I haven't had the time to follow the game but I would have very probaly voted for @Tuppet , Zidane-Eto'o being the decisive factor here according to me.

Congrats to both teams.

 

[antohan]

I agree with @Physiocrat that this is a rather new scenario where a sub is covering an injury, and how we evaluate those as opposed to the traditional evaluation that takes place which probably needs to be outlined if we are to continue with this model.

Even still, viability isn't the question, the question is will that be enough for Tuppet to take this game, looking at the complete picture, and there's only one answer to that.