Super League’s Impact on Transfers

Sky1981 said:
This will depends on who blinks.

If the FAs kicked these 12 teams out. Short term pain long term gain. If they still allow these 12 to participate in domestic league and only out of the CL, the uefa are fecked and the rest of the european football is fecked.

As much as i support united. For the better good i hope the FAs stick to their gun and dont negotiate with them.

These is very not fair for the hundreds of european clubs that needs the UEFA to survive and compete.

But as it is the CL cant afford to negotiate, and cant afford to give in. They have no other option. These 12 greedy clubs have forced a show hand, leaving no room for negotiation. I hope they crash and burn.
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If they dont then in a few weeks the PL rights for the next 5 years go up for acution and I honestly doubt there would be a huge bidding war for them without the 6 ... and I doubt with lest say a 75% drop in TV rights if most of the other 14 clubs would remain solvent

If its not resolved by the time the rights go to auction I can see the bids saying we will pay X amount for the rights but something like 25% X if the big 6 are not allowed to compete

I really cant see the other PL clubs being the turkey that votes for Xmas - and from a legal perspective Im not sure the directors of thise clubs would willilngly vote for somethig at would bankrupt them as they have directors duties... so yeah i think the Pl will be finw with it in the end and frankly I dont care if UEFA suddenly dont get to cream a huge % of CL revenues for themselves - I mean UEFA and FIFA can just sell the next worls cup to saudi or whatever so yeah I dont think there is a party invloved who isnt driven by money
 
tob said:
Any team that is in this ESL won't be playing in the PL, or in any other competition. If this ESL thing happen, the rest of the PL teams will just keep on going without them. I can't see it going any other way. Players in these 6 teams will leave the club and some will sign for other PL-clubs. Salary may be cut for everyone involved, but, in time, it will increase. Just as it always has. The interest of the Premier League won't go away. Hopefully the Premier League will put restrictions so that investors can't own majority of a club.


That's exactly what will happen. Why would they invest in the club when they are guarantied lots of money even if the team is ending up in last position every season?
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Yeah I'm not as convinced as you are that the PL will kick out the 6 biggest clubs or that all the players will leave. If that happened then I think you'd see a bigger ESL whereby it's a league format or something along those lines. I don't think the PL would risk it and would probably cave eventually.
 
Could the respective league associations put blocks on transfers from league clubs to SL clubs?
 
tob said:
Any team that is in this ESL won't be playing in the PL, or in any other competition. If this ESL thing happen, the rest of the PL teams will just keep on going without them. I can't see it going any other way. Players in these 6 teams will leave the club and some will sign for other PL-clubs. Salary may be cut for everyone involved, but, in time, it will increase. Just as it always has. The interest of the Premier League won't go away. Hopefully the Premier League will put restrictions so that investors can't own majority of a club.


That's exactly what will happen. Why would they invest in the club when they are guarantied lots of money even if the team is ending up in last position every season?
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On the contrary, don't think there's any chance this happening. TV and sponsorship revenues would plummet and the other 14 clubs would be fecked.
 
Annihilate Now! said:
So that's £250m to the Glazers and about £60m on transfers?
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This
In fact get ready for them to start pocketing more money if this goes ahead. It won’t matter if we finish bottom of the plastic league every season with 11 Phil Jones types on minimum wage as they’ll continue to rake it in
 
Annihilate Now! said:
So that's £250m to the Glazers and about £60m on transfers?
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more, 450m and if you are the champion 700m.

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lefty_jakobz said:
I dont think the Glazers will put much money in, nor Spurs or Arsenal. They are guaranteed the 300m+ every year, whether they finish first or last, it wont make any sense to invest the extra especially if they will still be collecting the PL money (assuming the PL don't throw them out of the league).
Thats some 450m+ before we’ve kicked a ball, before gate receipts and any other commercial activities. 450m as a basic even if we finish 17th in the PL and last in the SL.
Why would any of them (Us Spurs Arsenal) need to spend much of that extra income, when the whole point of the SL is to bring in more guaranteed income. It would be different if their was a chance of being relegated from the SL we would all spend.
The likes of Chelsea City will be spending as their owners are billionaires and to them its about winning or trying to win every thing they can. With us Spurs Arsenal its about doing the bare minimum.
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I respect your opinion.

TBH prior to this mess, I would have agreed with you. United chose the pound shop version of DOF and technical director and the Covid-19 crisis excuse is still alive and kicking. However I strongly believe that the SL thing will change things at least for next summer.

A- We'll have money to spend
B-Most other clubs (who aren't in SL) won't
C-The SL is a PR fiasco and we all know that the club hates looking bad with fans. Its bad for sponsors
 
Why bother with big transfer moves? With no impact on whether you win lose or draw and position in the league, you can just pick the kids and the glazers pocket most of the money.
 
pocco said:
I was just coming to RedCafe to say how disappointed I am to see comments from some fans, in response to the ESL, basically saying "the problem is that none of this money will be invested in the team".

Anybody with this opinion, just doesn't get it. It would be disgusting to watch us spend hundreds of millions on players, paid for by the ESL, and absolutely crushing the rest of the PL week in week out (if we're allowed to stay). It's fake, plastic, hollow...you name it. All the insults we've thrown at other clubs over the years will apply to us.
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Invest it in paint for OT as far as I’m concerned. I just don’t want to see it all go in the glazers slimy pockets and in Ed’s bonus
 
You can imagine the biggest negative impact occurring on Bayern and PSG. While their league income might not suffer from this, they will lose a lot of income from the reduced Champions League. That, added with the immense increase in wealth for the 12 clubs in the ESL would mean that they won't be able to afford the salaries offered by those clubs and could stand to lose their best players, or lose out on prospective signings.

I doubt players would forgo a much salary increase for not being able to play for their country, so I don't think any sanctions with effect them.
 
pocco said:
Yeah I'm not as convinced as you are that the PL will kick out the 6 biggest clubs or that all the players will leave. If that happened then I think you'd see a bigger ESL whereby it's a league format or something along those lines. I don't think the PL would risk it and would probably cave eventually.
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I doubt ESL want to risk the players getting injured and fatigued in the PL, or risk that a team would focus on the PL instead of the ESL at the end of the season. Also, how are they going to have time to play all those matches?

There could be a war coming up where FIFA and UEFA stop ESL players to play World Cup and euros.
 
hasanejaz88 said:
You can imagine the biggest negative impact occurring on Bayern and PSG. While their league income might not suffer from this, they will lose a lot of income from the reduced Champions League. That, added with the immense increase in wealth for the 12 clubs in the ESL would mean that they won't be able to afford the salaries offered by those clubs and could stand to lose their best players, or lose out on prospective signings.

I doubt players would forgo a much salary increase for not being able to play for their country, so I don't think any sanctions with effect them.
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CL will be reduced for sure. But last year only 3 of the mentioned ESL teams reached the CL quarter finals and there were 5 non ESL teams. This year it was 4 out of 8.
 
devilish said:
How does the American draft work?
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Basically all of the talent comes from university sports, since none of our pro teams have academy type setups (this is changing in MLS however). At the end of the season, the table is flipped upside down. Applied to the Premier League, instead of getting relegated, the 20th placed side would get first pick of all eligible players in the country, and that player has no option but to join the team (except in rare cases where they have remaining amateur eligibility and decide to return to University - provided they haven’t signed with an agent).
 
seegoblu said:
An unintended side effect of this breakaway league (assuming each recipient spends some or all of the windfall in the transfer market) could be getting selling clubs the capital they need to replace lost fan and advertising revenue, no? I’d imagine that the floundering French league‘s clubs would welcome a frothy transfer market for their young high priced talent. Same for Spanish clubs under crushing debt loads.
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But this would push those clubs even further towards sporting irrelevancy. Clubs don't actually want to sell their good players. They want to keep them and rise the ranks until they reach a level of prominence where they no longer rely on constantly selling their talent in order to stay afloat financially. If a club is on the brink of bankruptcy, it can sell its players and survive that way, but then the fan and advertising revenue wanes because they've become a weaker club. It's like pissing your pants to stay warm. It'll work for now, but pretty soon you'll be worse off than before. It's what happened to the Scottish and especially Irish leagues when the EPL shot up as the undisputed ruler of the global football hierarchy.
 
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forevrared said:
Basically all of the talent comes from university sports, since none of our pro teams have academy type setups (this is changing in MLS however). At the end of the season, the table is flipped upside down. Applied to the Premier League, instead of getting relegated, the 20th placed side would get first pick of all eligible players in the country, and that player has no option but to join the team (except in rare cases where they have remaining amateur eligibility and decide to return to University - provided they haven’t signed with an agent).
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I've never been into American sports, but I don't understand what's good about the draft system, other than the implicit equality, which I would consider artificial when it's so arbitrary. It's like if the loser of the first leg of a CL tie gets to start the second leg 1-0 up just to make it "fair." If the team that performed worst in an NFL season get to pick the best players for the next, doesn't that create all kinds of weird dynamics in the game? While I can see the merit of not letting one team utterly dominate the sport forever, it seems rather soulless if victory is largely determined by an arbitrary rule like that. Do teams usually flip-flop between failure and success? I don't watch the NFL or baseball or whatever.

I would imagine it's awful for the players, too. Unable to choose which team to play for, where to live, etc. The best players having to constantly play for last season's least succesful teams? Am I missing something here or do the top players just spend their whole careers playing for whatever team did worst in the previous season? That sounds like a nightmare to me. How is there any club culture and history? It would seem to be that winning the title comes down to being the best at analysing the draft system and making the smartest picks.

While I'm not fond of the extent to which football has become all about money these days, I can't imagine falling in love with the game if Sheffield Utd gets to start next season with Bruno Fernandes and Harry Kane while City have to work with the worst squad in the league after winning it because becoming champions of England means they get the last pick of players. In principle, their best player for the following season would be the 20th best player in England, and their second best the 40th. Do teams in a draft system ever win two years in a row? It seems like that would be completely impossible. Without knowing anything about American football, I'd have to wonder if teams that have no hope of winning wouldn't actively try to finish last so that they have the best picks next season. I mean, the worse you do, the better your chances of winning next year, no?
 
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I think the impact on transfers will clearly be an immediate cost inflation of top class talent. You'll get the odd club not in the Super League benefiting by selling great players to those who then have greater liquidity (e.g. Villa and Grealish or Dortmund with Sancho), however you'll also have a majority of non-super league clubs without the quality of asset to realise these increased transfer fee's. It would take a long time for the greater funds that Villa/Dortmund receive to trickle down. At the same time you'll see the TV money for Champions League / Europa League hugely declining meaning any increase as a result of SL money trickling down would be offset by a reduction in CL/EL (and potentially domestic revenue particularly in the PL) for the likes of Leicester, Dortmund, Porto, Ajax, Shakhtar, Marseille etc.

Effectively for years the marketability of the "SL" teams has been subsidising the transfer fees and wages paid by "non-SL" clubs. What I mean by this is if you look at the chart (courtesy of Swiss Ramble) pasted below you'll see that there are teams whose presence in the tournament makes very little difference to the marketability and revenue, but whom take a disproportionate amount of this revenue in comparison; when comparing it only to the beneficial revenue they bring*. For example Lyon earning 3.6% of the total pot (€70m) and conversely Real Madrid earning 4.4% of the total pot (€85m), the former being irrelevant to the overall pot whereas the latter are crucial to it.

Therefore you're likely to see the wages and transfer fees of players below the "SL tier" deflate quite substantially as they will no longer be the beneficiary of a subsidisation model of financial distribution. Effectively in a pure** model where every club sells their own rights someone like Fernandes would likely earn and cost far more than they are currently whereas someone like Emre Can (who wouldn't be hugely sought after and whose club would have less to spend due to CL total pot dropping substantially) would earn far less. This would then likely create an even greater two tier effect within SL clubs themselves. For example if Emre Can is earning £50k instead of £90k per week due to Dortmund's CL payments reducing significantly. United aren't then going to continue paying Fred £120k per week; when someone of similar ability could be enticed by offering £70k.

Players with a rarer ability level will increase massively in fee's and wages whereas players with a more commonly found ability level will reduce.

*Many people would argue the current methodology of distribution means they have earned the money in the traditional sense; however in comparison to the what they bring in marketability, TV viewership etc that determines the size of the overall pot (in this case €1.93b) their contribution is no greater than dozens of other teams not participating in the tournament.

**Pure in the sense of the value and salary of a player is directly related to the money they player bring to the game.
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devilish said:
I respect your opinion.

TBH prior to this mess, I would have agreed with you. United chose the pound shop version of DOF and technical director and the Covid-19 crisis excuse is still alive and kicking. However I strongly believe that the SL thing will change things at least for next summer.

A- We'll have money to spend
B-Most other clubs (who aren't in SL) won't
C-The SL is a PR fiasco and we all know that the club hates looking bad with fans. Its bad for sponsors
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Sounds like you were in favor for the wrong reasons
 
golden_blunder said:
Sounds like you were in favor for the wrong reasons
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I am not in favour of SL. All I am saying is why we would have spent money in the summer. It doesn't matter though. This crap fest is set to die out
 
UnofficialDevil said:
No transfers now thats for sure. They must be fuming. Their coup is fecked their wet money dreams gone. 70m max
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A lot of football agents will be very sad this summer. Not new funds to buy Haaland, Sancho, Mbappe and etc. Mbappe is sure as hell looking very likely to stay at PSG, considering that Madrid is unlikely to have the funds to sign him on massive wages.
 
I think the reason why the spanish clubs haven't withdrawn is because they'll sue the others for breach of contract worth hundreds of millions. You don't sign a contract one day going into hundreds of pages and withdraw the next day without consequences.

You can bet your arse our transfer kitty will be going to madrid and barcelona as damages.
 
VidaRed said:
I think the reason why the spanish clubs haven't withdrawn is because they'll sue the others for breach of contract worth hundreds of millions. You don't sign a contract one day going into hundreds of pages and withdraw the next day without consequences.

You can bet your arse our transfer kitty will be going to madrid and barcelona as damages.
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This will be the next big story. I am sure United's lawyers wouldn't have let us be exposed like that. Maybe the obligation was only to agree to go public with the plan. Now that this has been done, albeit with United stepping away after that, all will be well. Devil is in the details.
 
The Glazers will be spending nish this summer and the ESL failure is the stick they’ll use to beat it with but I’d take that lack of investment if it means they sell up, I hope they saw this as their last chance to “sweat the asset” and will now sell up as soon as.
 
Big Ben Foster said:
Never understood this logic. The money flowing into the sport is flowing in regardless. Every penny that doesn't go to the players will go to the owners.
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there are ways to redirect these profits without a doubt, especially if the players were on our side because they don’t stand to gain from it.
 
NoLogo said:
So gracious of the big clubs to share some of their new-found wealth with the drag of the normal leagues by taking their best talents of their hands. I bet they can't contain their excitement about having to sell their best talents.
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This strange idea that french or spanish clubs welcome the idea of the best talents leaving their leagues. :lol:
 
Coops73 said:
The Glazers will be spending nish this summer and the ESL failure is the stick they’ll use to beat it with but I’d take that lack of investment if it means they sell up, I hope they saw this as their last chance to “sweat the asset” and will now sell up as soon as.
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Agreed. Summer will be bleak
 
I wonder if other clubs will be more reluctant to sell to these clubs out of spite, or is business just business?
 
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