It's a farmers league and no one wants to watch it, as demonstrated by no broadcaster pushing hard for the rights. Is it even the fifth best league in Europe?
Presumably there are French people that like watching it. Ultimately that's all that matters. By every metric I've seen Ligue 1 is comfortably the most popular football league in France. People often bemoan modern football but what else do you really need aside from a league to call your own?
Ligue 1 is the most important sporting property in France. It's not so much that the broadcasters aren't pushing hard for the rights, but in austere times they are not prepared to pay what the league demands, but rather what they think it's worth.
They should be proactive on this and bring it in house.
Sack off all broadcasters and bring in their own streaming platform, like the NBA app.
Premier League should have done this years ago. Imagine having 100 million subscribers at £20 per month. That's £24 billion per year baby.
I think it would shock many to learn that there aren't 100 million people willing to fork out any money, let alone that amount, to watch PL football. Nowhere near it. You'd be lucky if there are 20 million people who regularly watch PL to justify paying a monthly fee for a service.
Even entertaining it as a thought experiment, the average Thai is not paying £20 a month, so to get anywhere near that figure, you'd have to price-gouge your wealthiest audience, which means that the Thais would be paying very little for it, and the British, Americans, Scandinavians, Singaporeans et all would be paying an arm and a leg to make up for cheap prices elsewhere.
That’s football, or anything really. Value is determined by the scope of the audience. TV rights are just a way of extending that scope to millions more people. We’ve got to be, what, 40+ years removed from top flight football clubs being sustained based on gates and merch turnover? You need people to be interested enough in to product to pay to watch it.
There are millions of people that have an interest in Ligue 1 in France. The interest isn't the issue. The issue is the impasse over what the league wants (too much to provide value) and what a broadcaster is willing to pay, with the league seemingly unwilling to meet anyone half-way.
Issue is France will have 300,000 subscribers
It would have more than 300,000 subscribers. There were ~450,000 match-going attendees in Ligue 1 last season, so that's a baseline, as that's your hardcore audience. I've seen TV ratings for big fixtures in France on pay-TV in the past hit over 3 million.
If you were to take a conservative stab, Ligue 1 should be able to shift anywhere between 500,000-1,500,000 subscriptions. Where it falls on that scale is up for debate, but even at the lowest end it's enough to sustain a business model that satisfies both broadcaster and league.
Overseas rights can't be worth much for them at all. Would assume TV rights are very top heavy in that respect.
If you watch your domestic league wherever you're from there's only so much football you can physically watch. England, Germany, Italy and Spain are all more attractive to watch as additional leagues.
Even if you're from a smaller country and reject your own domestic league, that's still 4 countries that most people are probably going to want to tune in to watch first. They're all in relatively close time zones and fixtures clash with France so it's going to be hard to sell.
Leaves just the domestic audience for the most part. France is obviously reasonably large with a decent enough economy on the world scale, but it's probably just going to be limited to that in terms of how much they can bring in with scraps from elsewhere.
Overseas rights are irrelevant for 99% of football leagues. They don't even move the needle for the PL's biggest competitors like La Liga.
Every league, first and foremost, needs the attention of the locals. On that front, France doesn't have a problem. Ligue 1 is comfortably the most popular football (and sports) league domestically.
They have a large enough market to sustain a professional football league that caters to that audience.
I wonder if PSG has killed the league off a bit in terms of the interest.
Perhaps others feel differently but I never saw the french teams or french league as iconic in terms of teams in comparison to how I feel about the Milan clubs or Juventus from Serie A, or Barcelona or Madrid from La Liga, or Bayern in the Bundesliga (perhaps that's due to my age). Since PSG came in with the big money it's killed that even further for me as an outside spectator.
Ligue 1 would be in much worse shape if PSG's Qatar takeover never took place. The other clubs are not suffering in terms of interest. Attendances are not in freefall.
The problem is that a very generous TV rights deal from a bygone era of free money is starting to reflect its true value, and Ligue 1 officials are unwilling to accept this.
Could something like this, or bit further with a legit financial ruin possibility, force the French league to seek something drastic like merging with another national league (or two or more)?
Ligue 1 isn't going to fall apart, nor would it benefit from merging with Belgian or Swiss leagues (something that would be rejected by clubs in those leagues anyway). It has a loyal customer base of anywhere between 500,000 and 1.5m. That's more than enough to run a professional sports league.
What's happening now is that expectations are being reset across the board. It's like going from a salary of $150,000 to $50,000. No one wants to accept that, so they convince themselves that they provide more value than they do.
Ligue 1 simply needs to come to terms with the fact that its earlier TV deals were, for any number of reasons, vastly inflated. DAZN's offer of 400m is far more in line with true value than the deflated figure they're getting now (250m) or the overinflated figure Ligue 1 wants (1 billion).
If the French league falls off its just joining a long list of others that no one cares about watching anymore.
The French care about watching it. None of this has anything to do with whether a Russian or Indonesian prefers to watch the Premier League or Ligue 1.
Nor can Ligue 1 fall off considering it's not perched atop anywhere. It's been a selling league whose clubs, PSG aside, struggle at the top table in Europe. Having less money to spend on wages and transfers is not going to change things drastically. The French are still first-class at producing talent, so its clubs are far better prepared to remain competitive over most European leagues even with less money.
I am wondering if Qatar is thinking about pulling out of PSG.
The World Cup 2022 is history, in Mbappe they lost their best asset and now their own broadcasting station (beIN) refuses to invest.
The UCL is being turned into a bonafide league before our eyes. The expanded quadrennial Club World Cup is coming, and who knows what (or how frequent) it will become in a few decades' time.
Qatar didn't invest in PSG so it could win matches against Metz. They know where the wind is blowing. Domestic leagues will become a secondary concern for any elite club within our lifetimes. For the likes of PSG, that's already the case. It will take much longer for this reality to hit English fans, but it's inevitable.
Qatar has an interest in making PSG the greatest club in the world. It has much less interest in making Ligue 1 the best league in the world. That's the difference, and it's why they're not going anywhere.
I think football became the most popular sport there relatively late compared to some other countries. Rugby was the top sport in the south at one point in time, football concentrated in the north. If money was being poured into another sport on a large scale it can impact the development of football I suppose. Just a theory. When I was a kid in the 80s I don't think it was completely settled that football was more popular, or if it was that it was only relatively recently, perhaps in the 60s or 70s.
It wasn't until 92/93 that France won it's first European club trophy. By then the reputations of other leagues would have been well ahead. Always playing catchup.
Might try and dig out some historical attendance data compared to rugby and to other European leagues.
Ligue 1 is significantly more popular than Top 14 (rugby) in France. Just about any metric you care to bring up will back this, and it's not close. Rugby is very popular in the south, but even then football has well-supported clubs in most of the major cities in the south (Marseille, Lyon, Toulouse, Bordeaux, Montpellier, Nice). In the case of Marseille, Lyon and Nice in particular, the football clubs are by far the most popular in the city. Ditto Bordeaux, but that's recently shifted with the success of the rugby team and the malaise of Girondins in the lower leagues.