Storeytime 14/15: Grim Edition

Pogue Mahone said:
When you consider that most of those game v the bottom half happened before the game against the top half, whatever projections you do make would have to be upwards!
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Yeah, you'd think so. The away form needs to pick up though. But you don't need a points projection system to work that out.
 
+7: Chelsea
+6:
+5:
+4: Southampton
+3:
+2:
+1:
0:
-1:
-2:
-3: Man City
-4:
-5:
-6: Swansea
-7:
-8:
-9: Man United
-10: West Ham
-11: Spurs, Arsenal
-12: Everton, Liverpool

*Southampton and Spurs still to play

Looking better now.
 
Eboue said:
The conclusion I take from that is that everyone sucks.
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This. All the big teams bar Chelsea are average. The shite teams are still shite. Only a number of teams have actually got better since last season, namely Chelsea, West Ham and Soton.
 
+4: Chelsea
+3:
+2:
+1:
0:
-1: Man City
-2:
-3:
-4: Southampton
-5:
-6:
-7: Man United
-8: West Ham
-9: Swansea
-10: Arsenal
-11: Spurs
-12:
-13:
-14: Everton, Liverpool
 
Is alternate universe table only about par score for title? Isn't there par scores for top 4 positions? Or is it the next 3 other than best, City, Soton and us at the moment for example are likely to finish 2nd to 4th at this moment.
 
The Man Himself said:
Is alternate universe table only about par score for title? Isn't there par scores for top 4 positions? Or is it the next 3 other than best, City, Soton and us at the moment for example are likely to finish 2nd to 4th at this moment.
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I asked that same question on the previous page

on the face of it being at -7 seems bad but in reality that is on target for a top4 place (or even better in most seasons) so I am happy enough with that.
 
Those figures really are grim. Just shows how many teams are going through huge troughs. How can teams that flew out (West Ham and Southampton) have such bad figures too? Crazy season.
 
Dumbstar said:
Those figures really are grim. Just shows how many teams are going through huge troughs. How can teams that flew out (West Ham and Southampton) have such bad figures too? Crazy season.
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Because as well as they are doing, they are still way off winning the league - people assume that a minus score is a bad thing but in fact a score of -4 is actually quite good
 
Rood said:
Because as well as they are doing, they are still way off winning the league - people assume that a minus score is a bad thing but in fact a score of -4 is actually quite good
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I still didn't understand. We are comparing results from both seasons. Why are Swansea, West ham and Southampton negative?
 
Hemil said:
I still didn't understand. We are comparing results from both seasons. Why are Swansea, West ham and Southampton negative?
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We are not comparing results from last season.
Win all your home games: 57 points
Lose away against the Top 6: 0 points
Draw away against the Middle 8: 8 points
Win away against the Bottom 6: 18 points
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This is the criteria for scoring. So yesterday's loss is a -3 for them, regardless of what happened last season.
 
Hemil said:
I still didn't understand. We are comparing results from both seasons. Why are Swansea, West ham and Southampton negative?
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This is the first time I've looked at the thing, so might be wrong, but isn't it because the par system is based on the pace needed to win the league, this season? So -4 for the likes of Southampton and Swansea is actually pretty amazing at this time of year.
 
Dumbstar said:
Those figures really are grim. Just shows how many teams are going through huge troughs. How can teams that flew out (West Ham and Southampton) have such bad figures too? Crazy season.
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Even Chelsea aren't doing that great - it's everybody else being crap.
 
neelu91 said:
We are not comparing results from last season.

This is the criteria for scoring. So yesterday's loss is a -3 for them, regardless of what happened last season.
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Ok..so this is going to simulate the BPL table well then...
 
OK, I've made my own version of this.

Teams are divided into 4 brackets:
  1. Title challengers (Chelsea, City and Arsenal)
  2. Top 4 challengers (United, Liverpool, Tottenham, Everton)
  3. Top 7 challengers (Soton, Newcastle, West Ham)
  4. We just want to stay here (rest of the league)
Why such selection? Arsenal is in top 3 instead of Pool because of Alexis Sanchez and Luis Suarez moves.
West Ham is in want-to-be-top 7 not because of their results, but because of their (and other clubs) transfer spend which was pretty big. The same goes for Newcasle.

Points expected are as follows:

  1. Champions will need 87 points (4 from Bracket I at Home, 3 I A, 11 II H, 6 II A, 9 II H, 4 II A, 28 IV H and 22 IV A)
  2. Top 4 needs 72 points (4 I H, 1 I A, 5 II H, 4 II A, 7 II H, 6 II A, 24 IV H and 21 IV A)
  3. Top 7 are 60 points (3 I H, 2 I A, 6 II H, 2 II A, 5 II H, 4 II A, 19 IV H and 19 IV A)
  4. Fighting for 17th place needs 38 points (4 I H, 0 I A, 4 II H, 3 II A, 4 II H, 2 II A, 13 IV H and 8 IV A)
These values seems weird (i.e. 17th team needing more points from top 3 at home than top 7 team), but in fact, they're calculated from last 4 EPL seasons.
Because of big points difference between brackets you can't really compare United to City etc. It's more about pre-season expectations and actual performance so far with schedule taken into account.

How does this table look right now?

Points will be rounded to one place after comma.
  1. Swansea 6.8
  2. Aston Villa 4.1
  3. Chelsea 3.3
  4. Stoke 2.6
  5. Southampton 2.1
  6. West Ham 1.8
  7. City 0.1
  8. United -0.4
  9. Sunderland -0.8
  10. Crystal Palace -1.0
  11. West Brom -1.1
  12. QPR -1.4
  13. Hull -1.9
  14. Newcastle -2.1
  15. Burnley -3.7
  16. Leicester -4.4
  17. Tottenham -5.9
  18. Liverpool -7.3
  19. Everton -9.3
  20. Arsenal -12.1
Conclusions?

City are doing exactly like they should if they want to win the league. But Chelsea is just even better and are on course for more than 90 points.
Arsenal is shit.
United are going for top 4 at least.
Arsenal is so shit, that United may be going for top 3.
But not for top 2. Despite lower expectations than City and Chelsea, United are doing slightly worse and much worse than them respectively.
Swansea and Aston Villa are doing fantastic work and shouldn't be concerned about relegation fight.
West Ham, which could seemed to be put into too high bracket is doing better than expected even in this better bracket.
Tottenham, LFC, Everton and Arsenal just aren't playing good enough.
Liverpool had easier schedule than Tottenham.
Leicester, Burnley and Hull are the worst teams. Exactly like in real table.
 
+6: Chelsea
+5:
+4:
+3:
+2:
+1: Man City
0:
-1:
-2:
-3:
-4:
-5:
-6:
-7: Southampton
-8:
-9: Arsenal, Man United, Spurs
-10: Swansea, West Ham
-11:
-12:
-13:
-14:
-15:
-16:
-17: Liverpool
-18: Everton
 
Colin129 said:
How come we are still so far behind? Surely we've had decent enough results against these teams. Only Shitty have beaten us and we got a draw against Chavski.
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Our away form against the league's bottom teams.
 
Colin129 said:
How come we are still so far behind? Surely we've had decent enough results against these teams. Only Shitty have beaten us and we got a draw against Chavski.
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Since the last update we played three games - two at home - so best you can do in those two is win which a par, so no way of moving up. Then the other game was the away trip to Villa. We lost two points there (par would have been to win but as we drew, it was a -2).
 
Colin129 said:
Theoretically, once we have played everyone, our place in this league should mirror the real league.
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Only at the very end of the season, because at the halfway stage it varies depending on which teams you have played at home and away compared to others.
 
+6: Chelsea
+5:
+4:
+3:
+2:
+1:
0:
-1: Man City
-2:
-3:
-4:
-5:
-6:
-7: Arsenal
-8: Man United
-9: Southampton
-10: Swansea
-11: Spurs
-12:
-13: West Ham
-14:
-15:
-16:
-17: Liverpool
-18:
-19: Everton

Game 19
  • Chelsea par
  • Man City -2
  • Southampton -2
  • Arsenal +2
  • Man Utd +1
  • Spurs -2
  • Swansea still to play
  • West Ham -3
  • Liverpool still to play
  • Everton -1
 
Damien said:
+6: Chelsea
+5:
+4:
+3:
+2:
+1:
0:
-1: Man City
-2:
-3:
-4:
-5:
-6:
-7: Arsenal
-8: Man United
-9: Southampton
-10: Swansea
-11: Spurs
-12:
-13: West Ham
-14:
-15:
-16:
-17: Liverpool
-18:
-19: Everton

Game 19
  • Chelsea par
  • Man City -2
  • Southampton -2
  • Arsenal +2
  • Man Utd +1
  • Spurs -2
  • Swansea still to play
  • West Ham -3
  • Liverpool still to play
  • Everton -1
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Thanks, Damo. Good stuff. Looks like top four is there for the taking. Huge improvement from a few weeks back.
 
+6: Chelsea
+5:
+4:
+3:
+2:
+1:
0:
-1: Man City
-2:
-3:
-4:
-5:
-6:
-7:
-8: Arsenal, Man United
-9: Southampton
-10:
-11: Spurs
-12: Swansea
-13:
-14:
-15: West Ham
-16:
-17:
-18:
-19: Liverpool
-20: Everton

Game 20
  • Chelsea par
  • Man City par
  • Arsenal -1
  • Man United par
  • Southampton par
  • Swansea -2
  • Spurs par
  • West Ham -2
  • Liverpool -2
  • Everton -1
 
How's it looking now? Can't help get the feeling we've fallen behind a few of our rivals.
 
I think this is right:

Game 21
Arsenal Par
Chelsea Par
Everton -2
Liverpool Par
Man City + 1
Man United -3
Southampton +2
Spurs -3
Swansea -2
West Ham Par

Game 22
Arsenal +3
Chelsea +2
Everton ?
Liverpool Par
Man City -3
Man United Par
Southampton +2
Spurs Par
Swansea -3
West Ham Par

So…

+8: Chelsea
+7:
+6:
+5:
+4:
+3:
+2:
+1:
0:
-1:
-2:
-3: Man City
-4:
-5: Arsenal, Southampton
-6:
-7:
-8:
-9:
-10:
-11: Man United
-12:
-13:
-14: Spurs
-15: West Ham
-16:
-17: Swansea
-18:
-19: Liverpool
-20:
-21:
-22: Everton
 
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So this basically says Chelsea are very unlikely to be caught and we've got our work cut out to make the top 4. That seems right to me.
 
ThierryHenry said:
Surely we can't be five points off 'title winning form'?
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The average winning points total is probably a little higher than 83 points, but it doesn't really matter, the par thing is just to try and quantify where teams are relative to each other.
 
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