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Your original quote on this subject:
You should have just stuck with “I stand corrected.”
Yemen, Libya and the Sinai were all home to Al Qaeda linked jihadi groups prior to the Arab Spring, with AQAP (Yemen) being easily the most powerful of them, and probably the most powerful Al Qaeda franchise in the world at that time. The instability caused by the collapse of the state in each of these areas during the Arab Spring gave these groups the space they needed to expand their operations and networks. As the Al Qaeda/ISIS schism developed over 2013 and 2014, many of these groups also splintered along the same lines with the result that each had a significant ISIS presence by the end of 2014.
So yes, the Arab Spring was absolutely pivotal in this process, just as it was in Syria for the exact same reasons. And given that such groups also existed and operated in late Ba’thist Iraq (e.g. Ansar al-Islam) and that Saddam himself had spent a decade promoting a Salafi purification campaign across the country, complete with beheadings, amputations, throwing people off buildings, etc., it is quite reasonable to speculate that in the event that a hypothetical Ba’thist Iraq went the way of Syria, Yemen, Libya and the Sinai during the Arab Spring, the result might have been the emergence of an ISIS-type group.
None of this speculation is designed to minimize the impact of the Iraq War, which was not only pivotal in providing the space for ISIS to emerge, but was a criminal act which destroyed a country and helped sour Western-Muslim relations for a generation. It does however suggest that the violence and ideology of ISIS, exemplified by their campaign to exterminate the Yazidis, cannot be explained solely or even primarily by reference to that war.
Non of the other nations who had an Arab spring ended up with ISIS
You should have just stuck with “I stand corrected.”
After their Arab Springs, inspired by the growth of ISIS in Iraq, not as a result of their revolutions.
Another failure by Carolina Red
Arab spring begins 2010. Isis only grow prominent in 2014. Carolina Red fails again
Yemen, Libya and the Sinai were all home to Al Qaeda linked jihadi groups prior to the Arab Spring, with AQAP (Yemen) being easily the most powerful of them, and probably the most powerful Al Qaeda franchise in the world at that time. The instability caused by the collapse of the state in each of these areas during the Arab Spring gave these groups the space they needed to expand their operations and networks. As the Al Qaeda/ISIS schism developed over 2013 and 2014, many of these groups also splintered along the same lines with the result that each had a significant ISIS presence by the end of 2014.
So yes, the Arab Spring was absolutely pivotal in this process, just as it was in Syria for the exact same reasons. And given that such groups also existed and operated in late Ba’thist Iraq (e.g. Ansar al-Islam) and that Saddam himself had spent a decade promoting a Salafi purification campaign across the country, complete with beheadings, amputations, throwing people off buildings, etc., it is quite reasonable to speculate that in the event that a hypothetical Ba’thist Iraq went the way of Syria, Yemen, Libya and the Sinai during the Arab Spring, the result might have been the emergence of an ISIS-type group.
None of this speculation is designed to minimize the impact of the Iraq War, which was not only pivotal in providing the space for ISIS to emerge, but was a criminal act which destroyed a country and helped sour Western-Muslim relations for a generation. It does however suggest that the violence and ideology of ISIS, exemplified by their campaign to exterminate the Yazidis, cannot be explained solely or even primarily by reference to that war.
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