Russian invasion of Ukraine

maniak said:
In practical terms what were the negative consequences for russia pre-invasion for annexing crimea without international recognition?
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Some sanctions were applied back in 2014. And those had an effect, they just were not wide spread. But those were a big factor in why the T-14 Armata tank isn't available in numbers - it relied on Western parts which were no longer available for Russia.
 
Wonder what people who say Ukraine is just a proxy for America/NATO fighting against Russia have to say now Russia is admitting and bragging about how North Korean troops fought for them on the front lines to retake Kursk

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/ukraine/russia-confirms-north-korean-troops-kursk-rcna203137

This is what I've never understood about the mindset of people who say the risk of WW3 is by helping Ukraine meanwhile Russia gets help by way of foreign troops from a country on the other side of the world with nuclear weapons and it's crickets.
 
Boycott said:
Wonder what people who say Ukraine is just a proxy for America/NATO fighting against Russia have to say now Russia is admitting and bragging about how North Korean troops fought for them on the front lines to retake Kursk

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/ukraine/russia-confirms-north-korean-troops-kursk-rcna203137

This is what I've never understood about the mindset of people who say the risk of WW3 is by helping Ukraine meanwhile Russia gets help by way of foreign troops from a country on the other side of the world with nuclear weapons and it's crickets.
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I am not on Russian side here absolutely, but there is a big difference in North Korea helping Russia directly vs any of the NATO states getting involved in Ukraine directly.

Has anyone from the, lets roughly call it a Western Bloc, threatened to start a World War if some random country helps Russia? Because no, nobody didn't.

On the other hand, Russia has treathened to start World War if NATO gets involved. Now, Russia is a fecking bully obviously, and it is obvious western Bloc countries are not as crazy and nobody is willing to test if Putin is as crazy as he claims he is.
 
Russian gov just released a revised budget for 2025.

Deficit forecast has more than tripled from 1.173 trillion to 3.792 trillion roubles. The first draft was always going to turn out as complete hogwash. Thing is they've blown through that 3.7 trillion in just Q1, even after large tax hikes and whatever else they are doing. Incomes are falling and expenditure is increasing exponentially.

The reality is going to look like ~12 trillion by year end, which is far more than what is left in the national wealth fund + government current accounts that they've apparently been draining to pay for things so far this year. New domestics bonds aren't enough to cover the increasing interest on existing bonds and there's no signs of any other funding source yet through 'normal' means.

https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3lo2g5syyxk2i
 
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May the oil prices continue to fall, all the way to zero.
 
So, Ukraine signed the mineral deal then, i was hoping they would just continue to ignore it. sure hope they got something real in return though.

Ultimately though, the US is not very trustworthy anymore, so even if some of the details be benefits Ukraine, nothing prevents US just ripping up/altering the deal whenever they feel like.
 
Morty_ said:
May the oil prices continue to fall, all the way to zero.
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If there's a recession, they should continue to fall. Hopefully as low as into the 40s, which would be great for US gas prices and calamitous for Putin.

Morty_ said:
So, Ukraine signed the mineral deal then, i was hoping they would just continue to ignore it. sure hope they got something real in return though.

Ultimately though, the US is not very trustworthy anymore, so even if some of the details be benefits Ukraine, nothing prevents US just ripping up/altering the deal whenever they feel like.
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I'm not sure what it accomplishes more than simply giving the US a reason to remain engaged on Ukraine for the rest of Trump's term.
 
At least short term, it should move Trump’s “bad guy” tag back on Putin & Russia as they are the one who haven’t made any deal with him yet. Not that you can count on any long-term benefit with him.

We’ll see, I guess. At least the (published) terms don’t look as horrible as they did at first, good of Zelenskyy not to concede immediately. It’s still a bad business deal but at least it’s a business deal and not pure extortion. Again, going by the reports, not sure if they’ve published the entire thing yet.
 
Bosnian_fan said:
I am not on Russian side here absolutely, but there is a big difference in North Korea helping Russia directly vs any of the NATO states getting involved in Ukraine directly.

Has anyone from the, lets roughly call it a Western Bloc, threatened to start a World War if some random country helps Russia? Because no, nobody didn't.

On the other hand, Russia has treathened to start World War if NATO gets involved. Now, Russia is a fecking bully obviously, and it is obvious western Bloc countries are not as crazy and nobody is willing to test if Putin is as crazy as he claims he is.
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Putin has threatened nukes like 20 times already, each time it was a bluff.

I think NATO countries aren't ready to be at war, aren't willing to endure the hardship. They hope Ukraine can stall the advance at worse, and are happy for only Uranian lives to be lost.

Can you imagine the response to Starmer declaring UK forces are joining the fight?

Not sure even the Polish people want to go to war.
 
Beans said:
Putin has threatened nukes like 20 times already, each time it was a bluff.

I think NATO countries aren't ready to be at war, aren't willing to endure the hardship. They hope Ukraine can stall the advance at worse, and are happy for only Uranian lives to be lost.

Can you imagine the response to Starmer declaring UK forces are joining the fight?

Not sure even the Polish people want to go to war.
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I do agree with you completely.
 
These civilians generally don't realise they're going to get killed in these missions.

“The Russian intelligence services consider such people ‘one-time’ assets and have never been worried about them,” one Ukrainian intelligence officer told New Lines. “Teenagers and young people are easier to recruit for such actions, when you characterize what they’re being asked to do as some sort of game.”
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Russian milblogger sources also reported that a Russian aircraft was shot down by a maritime drone.

 
VorZakone said:
Russian milblogger sources also reported that a Russian aircraft was shot down by a maritime drone.

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Wow. We have seen these naval drones successfully fighting against a helicopter before but a Su-30 is a different beast.

It's just amazing how Ukraine was able to gain dominance in the Black Sea and effectively keeping Russia out of it by now.
 
Ukraine intelligence made a statement about the state of the Russian economy. First time I've seen Ukraine or any government make any sort of official comment on it.

https://szru.gov.ua/en/news-media/analitics/russia-is-on-the-verge-of-an-economic-crisis

Mainly just pointing out the revised budget they just published and massive tax hikes they are planning. They stop short of saying they've already blown through the 'revised' budget after 4 months.

Prune posted all the details in a ridiculously long but good thread.
 
Simbo said:
Ukraine intelligence made a statement about the state of the Russian economy. First time I've seen Ukraine or any government make any sort of official comment on it.

https://szru.gov.ua/en/news-media/analitics/russia-is-on-the-verge-of-an-economic-crisis

Mainly just pointing out the revised budget they just published and massive tax hikes they are planning. They stop short of saying they've already blown through the 'revised' budget after 4 months.

Prune posted all the details in a ridiculously long but good thread.
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Russia's economy about to collapse? never heard this on the last 3 years. My hopes are really up like when "now we really got Trump" or "Biden is very mwad mwad mwad to Netanyahu" or "Temu has a 140 dollars voucher for you"
 
So how would economic collapse present itself? Would they just start running out of cash to pay social workers, pensions etc?
Also, with situation this bad, having been presented everything they've gained so far by americans, wouldn't that just be grand stupidity to be prolonging the war and press for more ruined land?
 
ShoePolish said:
So how would economic collapse present itself? Would they just start running out of cash to pay social workers, pensions etc?
Also, with situation this bad, having been presented everything they've gained so far by americans, wouldn't that just be grand stupidity to be prolonging the war and press for more ruined land?
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Isn't it pretty stupid to still be continuing the war regardless? What cost for another small town or farmer's field in Ukraine? 27 lives per kilometer apparently in 2024 and god knows much fuel, ammunition, and cash. Stupidity is built in at this point.
 
TwoSheds said:
Isn't it pretty stupid to still be continuing the war regardless? What cost for another small town or farmer's field in Ukraine? 27 lives per kilometer apparently in 2024 and god knows much fuel, ammunition, and cash. Stupidity is built in at this point.
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IMO, thinking there is that Ukraine is not far from their problems tipping over too.

Kyrylo Budanov allegedly presented danger to Ukraines statehood earlier this year, if no talks on peace start by the summer - https://kyivindependent.com/hur-denies-budanov-quote-in-media/ - though denied by HUR in the same article, you'd assume it's not all rosy on Ukraine's side and they're not just patiently waiting for Russia to collapse.
 
ShoePolish said:
So how would economic collapse present itself? Would they just start running out of cash to pay social workers, pensions etc?
Also, with situation this bad, having been presented everything they've gained so far by americans, wouldn't that just be grand stupidity to be prolonging the war and press for more ruined land?
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It might manifest by Russia not being able to pay enough to entice regular rural Russians to fight for them and having to hire poor North Korean mercenaries instead?
 
Abizzz said:
It might manifest by Russia not being able to pay enough to entice regular rural Russians to fight for them and having to hire poor North Korean mercenaries instead?
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Don't think there would be any sort of downside for them, choosing between a siberian milkman or a military man from North Korea is a no brainer.

Thing is they're funneling from everywhere else to fund the military pot from what I gather, so military funding shouldn't be the first to go?
 
It would probably manifest in a slowed tempo in Russian operations as the means to equip and sustain units in the field would become more scarce.

Russia doesn't have a bottomless pit of money to throw at the war. I doubt it's allies are helping for free.
 
Kim Jong Un’s Latest Gift to Russia Is Migrant Workers
Now, North Korean laborers are pouring into Russia, prized by local employers for their low wages and willingness to work 12-hour days without complaint. North Korea has dispatched around 15,000 workers to Russia, South Korea’s spy agency told lawmakers on Wednesday. Many are believed to have entered the country on student visas. In 2024, the number of North Koreans entering Russia jumped 12-fold from the prior year, according to Moscow figures.
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For now, they are largely confined to Russia’s Far East, but Russian industry leaders and officials have expressed a hope that more North Korean workers could soon arrive in major cities, including Moscow. The United Nations Security Council bars the use of overseas North Korean migrant workers.
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https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/kim-...is-migrant-workers-916693a4?mod=hp_lead_pos10
 
How Russia took record losses in Ukraine in 2024
Last year was the deadliest for Russian forces since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine: at least 45,287 people were killed.
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So far, we have identified the names of 106,745 Russian soldiers killed during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The true number is clearly much higher. Military experts estimate our number may cover between 45% and 65% of deaths, which would mean 164,223 to 237,211 people.
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One Russian republic, Bashkortostan, has seen the highest numbers of casualties, with 4,836 confirmed deaths. Most were from rural areas and 38% had gone to fight with no military experience.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yg4z6v600o
 
VorZakone said:
How Russia took record losses in Ukraine in 2024

On the day we are commemorating the end of WW2 in Europe, the estimated numbers of British people killed in that 6 years war is some 400,000.

The estimated numbers of Russian people killed during the 2+ years war with Ukraine is up to 250,000.
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Out of ignorance, how do you keep feeding an invasion army on the hundred thousands for a 4 year period? I assume it must be increasingly expensive and difficult, especially when you're sending mostly people from rural areas to the frontline which increases the problem.

Are women taking the jobs on the farms? Kids? Prisoners? Is the RA getting their food from the conquered land? If it's the last case, is the UA applying the old scorched earth tactic when they retreat?
 
Krakenzero said:
Out of ignorance, how do you keep feeding an invasion army on the hundred thousands for a 4 year period? I assume it must be increasingly expensive and difficult, especially when you're sending mostly people from rural areas to the frontline which increases the problem.

Are women taking the jobs on the farms? Kids? Prisoners? Is the RA getting their food from the conquered land? If it's the last case, is the UA applying the old scorched earth tactic when they retreat?
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I would think they’d get fed through food and animals grown on Russian-held Ukrainian territory. I know that in hictoric wars, farmers were considered key workers and not called up, to ensure a constant food supply. All of this is a guess though, I might be completely wrong..
 
Krakenzero said:
Out of ignorance, how do you keep feeding an invasion army on the hundred thousands for a 4 year period? I assume it must be increasingly expensive and difficult, especially when you're sending mostly people from rural areas to the frontline which increases the problem.

Are women taking the jobs on the farms? Kids? Prisoners? Is the RA getting their food from the conquered land? If it's the last case, is the UA applying the old scorched earth tactic when they retreat?
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I imagine that the farms and food processing plants in Russia are still operating at similar if not higher rate (if they had spare capacity) than they were pre-war. They can also import grain, meats or already processed foods from other countries to either supply their military rations or as a substitute for the consumption of the civilian population if processing factories are making too many military rations to also provide processed foods for the population.
 
Krakenzero said:
Out of ignorance, how do you keep feeding an invasion army on the hundred thousands for a 4 year period? I assume it must be increasingly expensive and difficult, especially when you're sending mostly people from rural areas to the frontline which increases the problem.

Are women taking the jobs on the farms? Kids? Prisoners? Is the RA getting their food from the conquered land? If it's the last case, is the UA applying the old scorched earth tactic when they retreat?
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One would imagine they are getting fed through a combination of local resources (Ukraine being the 'breadbasket of Europe' and all) and through logistical lines in Russia. Of the approximately 600k Russian troops on Ukrainian land, its probably a combination of both local and domestic Russian imo.
 
Maybe they have the North Koreans farming for them. Although on second thought, they’d probably eat the produce before it got shipped.
 
4bars said:
Russia's economy about to collapse? never heard this on the last 3 years. My hopes are really up like when "now we really got Trump" or "Biden is very mwad mwad mwad to Netanyahu" or "Temu has a 140 dollars voucher for you"
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Your words, not mine. Their economy is in crisis and certainly not sustainable. It may take years yet though for any sort of 'collapse', who knows. It is how this war ends though in my opinion, therefore the most important thing to keep an eye on.
 
Simbo said:
Your words, not mine. Their economy is in crisis and certainly not sustainable. It may take years yet though for any sort of 'collapse', who knows. It is how this war ends though in my opinion, therefore the most important thing to keep an eye on.
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Oh surely is not sustsinable. In this i agree 100%. If there is not and agreement (voluntary or forced) it will finish as you say, with an economy collapse being russia or ukranian. If europe sustains ukraine, russia will fall first, if europe falters, russia will prevail.

The problem is that all this news that russian economy will fold is recurrent since almost from the beginning of the war and it seems almost imminent, which ends sounding more like propaganda. One day will be true i guess, but not because a good prediction, but because if you say it everyday, one day it will be true
 
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