Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

What are you talking about? Demented related to the absence of fear, you can do frightening things in spite of fear.

If Putin is desperate he will kill himself, for example like Hitler did.

He has to be demented to start a nuclear war, that's what you said above, and I agreed. And not only Putin, multiple Russians in the chain of command have to be demented to start a nuclear war with NATO. Do you think there are multiple Russians that are demented? I don't think so.
 
If Putin is desperate he will kill himself, for example like Hitler did.

He has to be demented to start a nuclear war, that's what you said above, and I agreed. And not only Putin, multiple Russians in the chain of command have to be demented to start a nuclear war with NATO. Do you think there are multiple Russians that are demented? I don't think so.

Or he will cause the death of millions knowing that he is done.
 
Or he will cause the death of millions knowing that he is done.

So you think he will be demented!. And you also think that other Russians around him in the chain of command will also be demented and they will start a nuclear war.

I disagree. I don't think the Russians will be demented no matter how desperate they are.
 
So you think he will be demented!. And you also think that other Russians around him in the chain of command will also be demented and they will start a nuclear war.

I disagree. I don't think the Russians will be demented no matter how desperate they are.
It's a fair worry to have.
 
One example. In December 2021 Biden said Russia will pay a heavy price if it invades Ukraine. This is weak. He did not specify anything, this sounds like an empty threat.

If Biden said "USAF will obliterate any Russian forces that enter Ukraine", and he meant it, and F-16s started flying inside Ukraine near the Russian border, with F-22s and F-35s and B-52s nearby... do you really think that Putin would ever invade Ukraine? I don't think so. Putin had his forces on the border for 2 months and was waiting to see what the NATO response is. NATO did nothing: that was the green light for Putin.

Of course, I understand that if Biden did that, the whole world would blame him as warmonger. We'd see the global anti-american squad in full force. Well yes, but how many lives would have been saved by this "USAF air show"? Sometimes leaders do not have any good options, they have to choose the least worst option from an array of bad options.

And if Russia still invaded?
If the Russians knew that USAF is serious about it they wouldn't dare invade. Why would they? It would be a certain defeat for them.

But even if they did invade, USAF would destroy the first few tanks in their columns and the whole thing would probably end there.

Do you think that Putin would go full nuclear holocaust in this case? Just because he lost a few tanks? Then, if he loses the war a few months from now, why wouldn't he do the same? After all, the Russians are certain that without American help, Ukraine would not be able to fight for long (and they are not wrong).
I think it's funny that you think that.
Probably more like "... and the world would begin to end there".

This is the conversation you commented on, you were saying, as I said, that if Russia invaded and the US defended Ukraine, it would be the end of the world.

I didn't say anything about an invasion?
You've lost me.

So that's how you were commenting on an invasion without saying anything about an invasion.
 
So you think he will be demented!. And you also think that other Russians around him in the chain of command will also be demented and they will start a nuclear war.

I disagree. I don't think the Russians will be demented no matter how desperate they are.

You are mixing two things, it's completely irrational to not fear the nuclear weapons of your enemy. Now there is a rational in accepting your own death and be ready to take your enemies with you. If you want to neglect it by all mean do it but I won't because that's essentially what soldiers do whenever they are on theater of war.

Also Putin could easily be crazy, the man was crying about statues.
 
So that's how you were commenting on an invasion without saying anything about an invasion.
I believe he was speaking of Russia invading Ukraine and then also responding to part of your post that reads as if you’re talking about Russia being invaded.
 
This is the conversation you commented on, you were saying, as I said, that if Russia invaded and the US defended Ukraine, it would be the end of the world.



So that's how you were commenting on an invasion without saying anything about an invasion.
Yes. That's all about invading Ukraine. Not Russia. Read back through it again.
 

This isn't as strong as it seems. This is the actual declaration they signed:


The arms embargo point is correct, but the PKK is already considered a terrorist organized by the EU (so whatever Kurdish support Finland and Sweden provide is already situated within that framework); those new laws predate this declaration (the text itself says that Finland's is already in effect, and Sweden's comes into force on Friday); intelligence sharing seems pretty standard to me within a military organization; and the declaration only says that Finland and Sweden will handle extradition requests 'expeditiously and thoroughly', taking into account Turkish info, not that they will always extradite them.

I don't mean to say that it all means nothing, as then obviously Turkey wouldn't have agreed. But it's not quite as far-reaching as Mr. Soylu implies either.
 
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So you think he will be demented!. And you also think that other Russians around him in the chain of command will also be demented and they will start a nuclear war.

I disagree. I don't think the Russians will be demented no matter how desperate they are.

The danger as far as I'm concerned isn't that Putin will start bombing European capitals or the US east coast or anything. The problem is that there are many ways Putin could escalate where NATO would have absolutely no response. What if we do what you suggest and take an even stronger stance, only for Putin to order the use of tactical nukes in East and/or South Ukraine? As horrible as that would be, it still wouldn't warrant full nuclear retaliation from NATO, nor should it.

Pushing the Putin regime as far as we can into the corner just because we don't think he's 100 % 'demented' and suicidal is a game we cannot win, because we will quickly end up in a situation where we will have to back down or risk nuclear war. Putin has several ways of drastic military escalation which won't trigger NATO to react militarily - it's an uneven playing field and the Ukrainians are the ones who would suffer for it - even more than they are suffering now.
 
The danger as far as I'm concerned isn't that Putin will start bombing European capitals or the US east coast or anything. The problem is that there are many ways Putin could escalate where NATO would have absolutely no response. What if we do what you suggest and take an even stronger stance, only for Putin to order the use of tactical nukes in East and/or South Ukraine? As horrible as that would be, it still wouldn't warrant full nuclear retaliation from NATO, nor should it.

Pushing the Putin regime as far as we can into the corner just because we don't think he's 100 % 'demented' and suicidal is a game we cannot win, because we will quickly end up in a situation where we will have to back down or risk nuclear war. Putin has several ways of drastic military escalation which won't trigger NATO to react militarily - it's an uneven playing field and the Ukrainians are the ones who would suffer for it - even more than they are suffering now.
But do you really think Putin will not take those actions anyway if he starts to lose in conventional warfare if west supplies more weapons to Ukraine.
 
Malaysia surprises me, but Singapore really does:



I would say 70% of population holding negative views of Russia sounds about right for Singapore.
Singapore's population mix is about 60-70% ethnic Chinese. A good proportion of them, including new immigrants from China and older Chinese Singaporeans, consume news/propaganda from China. Not surprising if some of them are more sympathetic towards Russia.
But in general, i think for most Southeast Asian countries, the real prevalent attitude is indifference.

Authoritarian states recognize game, I suppose.

This is a really bad generalization. The Singapore Government (aka the state) is one of the most vocal against the invasion in Asia. In fact, the government's stance probably goes further than how the population feels about the invasion.
 
The danger as far as I'm concerned isn't that Putin will start bombing European capitals or the US east coast or anything. The problem is that there are many ways Putin could escalate where NATO would have absolutely no response. What if we do what you suggest and take an even stronger stance, only for Putin to order the use of tactical nukes in East and/or South Ukraine? As horrible as that would be, it still wouldn't warrant full nuclear retaliation from NATO, nor should it.

Pushing the Putin regime as far as we can into the corner just because we don't think he's 100 % 'demented' and suicidal is a game we cannot win, because we will quickly end up in a situation where we will have to back down or risk nuclear war. Putin has several ways of drastic military escalation which won't trigger NATO to react militarily - it's an uneven playing field and the Ukrainians are the ones who would suffer for it - even more than they are suffering now.

This is a very interesting point and well argued.
There is a big difference between threatening the West with Russian nuclear weapons and actually deciding to do it. Because of the MAD probability.

That is why I still don't believe he will do anything more than sabre rattling.

NATO has been caught off guard and is now frantically trying to catch up.
But seriously. I do not see Putin having a death wish.
 
Yes. That's all about invading Ukraine. Not Russia. Read back through it again.
Yes, i talking about Russia invading Ukraine, which is what they were talking about, though I did say as an aside that Russia didn’t have to worry about being invaded themselves thanks to their nukes.

Anyway it seems we’re on the same page now. Don’t make me read it all back again!!
 
The danger as far as I'm concerned isn't that Putin will start bombing European capitals or the US east coast or anything. The problem is that there are many ways Putin could escalate where NATO would have absolutely no response. What if we do what you suggest and take an even stronger stance, only for Putin to order the use of tactical nukes in East and/or South Ukraine? As horrible as that would be, it still wouldn't warrant full nuclear retaliation from NATO, nor should it.

Pushing the Putin regime as far as we can into the corner just because we don't think he's 100 % 'demented' and suicidal is a game we cannot win, because we will quickly end up in a situation where we will have to back down or risk nuclear war. Putin has several ways of drastic military escalation which won't trigger NATO to react militarily - it's an uneven playing field and the Ukrainians are the ones who would suffer for it - even more than they are suffering now.
One US military figure commented that the US would respond in equal measure if Russia used tactical nukes, but probably not with tactical nuclear weapons, because they’re not limited to that option, and it’s bad PR. Though he didn’t give any detail beyond that.
 
Yes, i talking about Russia invading Ukraine, which is what they were talking about, though I did say as an aside that Russia didn’t have to worry about being invaded themselves thanks to their nukes.

Anyway it seems we’re on the same page now. Don’t make me read it all back again!!
Ha, deal!
 
Due to a threat of being surrounded by orcs the Ukrainian armed forces are retreating from Lysychansk completely.
 
But do you really think Putin will not take those actions anyway if he starts to lose in conventional warfare if west supplies more weapons to Ukraine.
I don't have a good answer to that. I think it's possible he might do something destructive to escalate in the scenario you describe, but if we get get directly involved I think it goes from possible to very likely.
One US military figure commented that the US would respond in equal measure if Russia used tactical nukes, but probably not with tactical nuclear weapons, because they’re not limited to that option, and it’s bad PR. Though he didn’t give any detail beyond that.

I understand why the US says this, but I really hope it's strategic rhethoric under the hopeful presumption that they'll never have to actually follow through. As much as I appreciate the US as our security guarantor, I really would rather not have the warfare spread out of Ukraine, which I think would be a given if the US gets involved in a tit for tat game with Russia. I realize it sounds very cynical saying it, but I don't think most European voters (except Poland and Lithuania maybe) are willing to risk this kind of escalation on the European continent, even with the kind of support we see for Ukraine now.
 
Due to a threat of being surrounded by orcs the Ukrainian armed forces are retreating from Lysychansk completely.

Sauce? Not good news if so really. That's the high ground right?
 
LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) - Russia on Tuesday denied hitting a shopping mall in the Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk with missiles, saying that it had struck a nearby depot of U.S. and European arms triggering an explosion which ignited a fire in the mall.

[Maury Povich voice] Video shows that to be a lie...
 
Is there any good reason that guy jumped into the lake? Just panic or is there any advantage to it in case of an explosion?
 
I understand why the US says this, but I really hope it's strategic rhethoric under the hopeful presumption that they'll never have to actually follow through. As much as I appreciate the US as our security guarantor, I really would rather not have the warfare spread out of Ukraine, which I think would be a given if the US gets involved in a tit for tat game with Russia. I realize it sounds very cynical saying it, but I don't think most European voters (except Poland and Lithuania maybe) are willing to risk this kind of escalation on the European continent, even with the kind of support we see for Ukraine now.
Unfortunately, the best way to get that outcome, is to ensure Putin believes we would indeed be prepared to risk that. We have to look, act and be prepared to do the things we don't want to, in order to make them less likely. I do think Putin would have to pay a very very high price for using nukes.
 
Can I just say that if the news about the prisoner exchange is infact true, and 95 members of the azov fighters have been returned to Ukraine, then it is one of the best outcomes of recent weeks.glad they're home.