Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Take it with a pinch of salt but the reports from Putin’s elite say that they don’t believe that any peaceful resolution without a huge win is a possibility as the propaganda did a bit too well in convincing everyone that Russia is fighting the Nazis in the final, almost apocalyptic war. Putin’s Administration has their own sociological surveys that apparently say that there would be a potential internal backlash if they simply take their losses and move out. And, as correctly noted by someone above, the loss of people’s lives, be it Russian or Ukrainian, are not really a concern to Putin, they never really were.
Plus how will ordinary Russians feel when 100000 Russians have been killed or injured to no end?
 
Take it with a pinch of salt but the reports from Putin’s elite say that they don’t believe that any peaceful resolution without a huge win is a possibility as the propaganda did a bit too well in convincing everyone that Russia is fighting the Nazis in the final, almost apocalyptic war. Putin’s Administration has their own sociological surveys that apparently say that there would be a potential internal backlash if they simply take their losses and move out. And, as correctly noted by someone above, the loss of people’s lives, be it Russian or Ukrainian, are not really a concern to Putin, they never really were.

This is where the fear of Putin using a tac nuke comes in. Because without it the likelihood of them getting a major win is pretty unlikely. Of course using one also doesn't give them a huge win either because the response from the west will be overwhelming, but I can see him doing it regardless.
 
I don't think the propaganda about fighting Nazis would be the big problem now. Just declare that you destroyed all military equipment (demilitarization) and killed all Nazis, maybe dig in Donezk and Luhansk Oblast which Ukraine might even begrudgingly accept and declare mission accomplished, despite under high losses.
Based on? Putin & the propaganda have already changed their assessment of Nazi’s presence in Ukraine (from a limited presence in country’s leadership to a country-wise “infection”).

While the actual support of the operation is not really easy to evaluate you certainly don’t seem to grasp the sheer scale of this public obsession.

And at this point it’s highly unlikely that Ukraine will accept any outcome that will see them losing any land at all (seeing that you’ve used “Oblast” you probably mean the borders of Donetsk’ & Luhansk oblasts’?).
 
Based on? Putin & the propaganda have already changed their assessment of Nazi’s presence in Ukraine (from a limited presence in country’s leadership to a country-wise “infection”).

While the actual support of the operation is not really easy to evaluate you certainly don’t seem to grasp the sheer scale of this public obsession.

And at this point it’s highly unlikely that Ukraine will accept any outcome that will see them losing any land at all (seeing that you’ve used “Oblast” you probably mean the borders of Donetsk’ & Luhansk oblasts’?).
The Nazi infection isn't real but propaganda, so it would be possible at any point to declare all Nazis died, job done, I think.

And yes I specifically talked about the oblasts because Putin could sell this as a real win - ensuring that DPR/LNR really get control over all territory they claim.
 
Wasn't there rumours that Putin had some serious illness when the war broke out? Could be rubbish but you never know.
 
He was


Looks more like he had one too many puff of MJ before the meeting -- and was holding on to the table before it 'slides away' from him. He was gripped with fear that people would noticed.

The way he holds on to the table for the entire convo is just strange.

 
Come on Raoul, we're discussing the absurdity of sanctions on a bunch of Russian/Belarussian tennis players as a result of Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

I thought the goal of sanctions is to make Putin's war more difficult to wage, and don't see how banning tennis players who don't even compete under the Russian flag accomplishes that.
I figured the idea was to put pressure on the regime to normalize relations and stop breaking the Geneva convention.

Russia thinks all the former Soviet states should be under their power, you could say that Russia is at War with all of them, but they’re only attacking within one right now. Thus they’re the countries that are the leading voices in Europe against Russian aggression.
I don't think the propaganda about fighting Nazis would be the big problem now. Just declare that you destroyed all military equipment (demilitarization) and killed all Nazis, maybe dig in Donezk and Luhansk Oblast which Ukraine might even begrudgingly accept and declare mission accomplished, despite under high losses.

But the propaganda problem is, that they made a huge deal of NATO support for Ukraine and started to talk about being actually at war with NATO, already fighting WW3 now etc. This part of the propaganda was great to explain Russian losses, but really makes it hard to retreat, as now it looks like they have been beaten by NATO. That's a whole different story than killing some Nazis and going home afterwards.
It may develop into a “line of actual control” like the border between China and India in places.

Fair to say Russia have obligated themselves to try to break through, from a propaganda perspective.

Even if Ukraine can push all Russian troops back into Russia, surely it will mean Ukraine have to militarize the border, and Russia will make incursions into Ukraine. Unless the Putin regime falls.
 
The Nazi infection isn't real but propaganda, so it would be possible at any point to declare all Nazis died, job done, I think.

And yes I specifically talked about the oblasts because Putin could sell this as a real win - ensuring that DPR/LNR really get control over all territory they claim.
Not really, no. If Ukraine remains the same state that doesn’t suddenly warm up to Russia, rethinking their country’s entire political affiliation (which won’t happen, obviously), he won’t be able to claim that goal to be achieved.
 
Not really, no. If Ukraine remains the same state that doesn’t suddenly warm up to Russia, rethinking their country’s entire political affiliation (which won’t happen, obviously), he won’t be able to claim that goal to be achieved.
Maybe I overestimate the power of the Russian propaganda machine then, I am sure you know better about this.

And by the way good to read from you again, hope you aren't in big trouble?
 
Looks like he has one foot in the grave from those two clips. I don’t normally say such things but let‘s hope so.
Not really sure that would be a good thing. Who would be his successor?
 
The way he holds on to the table for the entire convo is just strange.


He really doesn’t look good, does he? One can hope…

Wasn't there rumours that Putin had some serious illness when the war broke out? Could be rubbish but you never know.
There was a recent story where they’ve tracked the movements of medical personnel of a certain hospital over the past few years which coincided with Putin’s visits to his Sochi residence and the most frequently appearing name was that of an oncologist (a specialist on thyroid cancer to be specific).

It’s important not to assume that he has one, of course, he may simply be paranoid about thyroid cancer specifically (and there are doctors of literally every speciality in this list as he clearly has very thorough check ups), but it’s something (and probably the closest we’ll get to knowing anything real about Putin’s health).
 
And by the way good to read from you again, hope you aren't in big trouble?
I just exist in the information bubble where everything is about the war 24/7, with new gruesome pictures, articles and videos coming up every morning, so checking on this thread as well is a bit too much for me.

I’m not in any immediate trouble at the moment, a few of my friends have been found guilty of that weird new “defamation of Russian military” thing but for them it’s been just a fine so far. It’s more the feeling of existential dread, complete powerlessness and inability to plan anything for the future. Thanks for asking though, it means a lot.
 
How come the Russians are allowing footage like from the meeting with Shoigu to be published? The way he's holding on to that desk looks odd from the first moment and the fact that he seems almost paralyzed from the neck down for an entire video doesn't exactly help him. Are there rumors forcing him to show himself like this to the public?
And even if there are I would have assumed that they would have some tricks to avoid making him look this frail.
 
He really doesn’t look good, does he? One can hope…


There was a recent story where they’ve tracked the movements of medical personnel of a certain hospital over the past few years which coincided with Putin’s visits to his Sochi residence and the most frequently appearing name was that of an oncologist (a specialist on thyroid cancer to be specific).

It’s important not to assume that he has one, of course, he may simply be paranoid about thyroid cancer specifically (and there are doctors of literally every speciality in this list as he clearly has very thorough check ups), but it’s something (and probably the closest we’ll get to knowing anything real about Putin’s health).

Parkinson’s perhaps. I think I recall reading there were some opinions he might have something like that?
 
Not really sure that would be a good thing. Who would be his successor?

Hard to run a war when everyone is backstabbing and trying to get to the top spot though. It would be akin to The Death of Stalin. I don't see that there's any concrete succession plan or anyone who could clearly take the helm unchallenged.
 
Hard to run a war when everyone is backstabbing and trying to get to the top spot though. It would be akin to The Death of Stalin. I don't see that there's any concrete succession plan or anyone who could clearly take the helm unchallenged.

Hopefully there would be an internecine gangster war, where most of them end up killing each other.
 
KGB director that ended up as the ruler of the entire USSR? Surely it’s not that outlandish to think that Putin looked up to him.

He ruled for something like 15 months, and from what I remember he was probably legally dead for 4-5 of those. While there are probably better rulers to look up to, seeing as Vlad is a dyed in the wool KGB man I can see the admiration from that side based on his tenure as head of that organization.

Although to be fair my wonder at Raoul's post was purely based on my rather lazy comparison of Putin to Andropov based on my recollection of the USSRs era of General Secretary merry-go-round in the early 80s.
 
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KGB director that ended up as the ruler of the entire USSR? Surely it’s not that outlandish to think that Putin looked up to him.

He was also the de facto leader of the USSR as Brezhnev was sinking into mental decline combined to various physical health problems in his last decade.

Thank God that most countries don't allow former intelligence officers to reach the highest echelons of their respective governments that easily. Such scenario would be hell on Earth if it was so easy for them to lead more countries.