I don't think Russia will invade, but what do they have to lose?
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Defeat? Given what the US have reiterated again today they’ll be military action and for my money the Russians will be beaten back.
Why?
No way Biden has the political capital to go toe to toe with Russia over a part of Ukraine that wants to be Russian
And from a practical perspective options are pretty limited
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/21/politics/joe-biden-vladimir-putin-us-russia-ukraine/index.html
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Really unfortunate time for Biden to make that gaffe.
Would the US risk a WAR with Russia over the Ukraine? Would the US risk possible involvement of China? Is Ukraine's freedom really worth a World War?
If (and it's not gonna happen) there is a war between the US and Russia then the latter won't just peace out. It'll be a monumental feck up to go to war with Russia.
So all the talk about "invasion imminent" but it's actually the west who draw the first strikes sending ships and special forces there?
Countries don't commit to the 2% because the threat of military action against NATO has been almost zero for the last 40 years or so and the US are happy to spend 4.5% which covers everyone elses shortfall combined, and then some.
Luxomburg, Spain, Canada etc have more important things to spend on domestically, they can't justify it.
Things may change now Putin is throwing his toys out the pram, but we'll see.
Another threat is the influence Putin has on US politics, there's a not unreasonable line of thought that puts the US as a potential future threat to NATO/EU. Reliance on the US does need to reduce, as Macron has pushed for.
@TheReligion I hope you don't actually expect NATO to start actual hot war with Russia over Ukraine.
First strikes?
Deluded as usual.
Russia has* been mobilizing for months
* (man, I can't bring myself to use plural verbs with countries)
says the west, are they even entering UKR land?
US prepared to pursue talks in 'spirit of reciprocity'
Continuing his address, Antony Blinken said: "If any Russian military forces move across the Ukraine border, that’s a renewed invasion.
"Russia has an extensive playbook short of military actions".
He added that forms Russian aggression including cyber attacks will also be met with a "decisive, calibrated, and, again, united response".
Mr Blinken said he stressed again to Mr Lavrov that the US is "prepared to pursue talks in the spirit of reciprocity".
He said: "I also laid out several ideas to reduce tensions and increase security… again, based on the spirit of reciprocity."
Russians? Officially no, but then the West has also not entered Russian territory.
Crimea is still Ukrainian land.
If you put it that way, then yes. Russia has already invaded more than 6 years ago. Add to that all the undercover personnel in East UKR.https://tvpworld.com/58057335/spain-dispatches-warship-to-the-black-sea-to-boost-ukraines-defences
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ates-send-us-made-weapons-ukraine-2022-01-20/
Russia-Ukraine tensions: UK sends 30 elite troops and 2,000 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine amid fears of Russian invasion
The question is would they just stop at that?
I don’t think it matters what Russia would or wouldn’t do. They’d be forced to withdraw.
I hope not however that very much depends on Russia. I get the feeling if it pushes too far Putin will finally have his bluff called..
Eh? Why are you sending me these links?
I assume he sees that as Russia?
I had no clue we did that without the permission of the Ukrainian government. That’s quite a big issue. Not sure 30 troops will be much use invading mind - yet another Boris feck up.
It took them almost 50 years to realize they were beaten in the Cold War. They're fanatical in their pride.
I think the west has not officially in grandiose term entering Ukraine land, but there's no doubt they're on the move even if it's logistic.
I guess... Russia also sees Ukraine as Russia. Skynov1981
That's my point. Russia has been building up forces on the border and the West has reacted to that by sending reinforcements to the other side of the border. So, it's not the latter who is instigating this.
Oh no doubt but would you fancy them?
Have they started shooting down passenger planes yet?
Is this where you pretend that Russia doesn't have forces inside Ukraine and isn't moving ships and equipment into theater?
The troops are just to train in the use of the NLAW's
I wouldn't be so sure about the 3rd point — as you've said, Ukrainians are probably not the best sources for that (especially since Ukrainian propaganda also maintains, understandably so, a very anti-Russian course). Same with the next point — there was a huge wave of support for Belarus' people in Russia for example after their election & everything that followed. Putin also doesn't have a huge approval rating — it's slightly above 30% (unsurprisingly, an all-time low).
As for the second — an optimist in me thinks that Putin won't make it as far into the future (physically, not politically, I doubt that anyone would be able to overthrow him with the excessive amount of different safety precautions that he had established in all public institutions). And it's going to be a huge challenge to the system that he had built around himself, as we know from the history of authoritarian regimes. If (
) the same guys manage to remain in power then it's a fair prognosis probably.Good stuff, wonder who's making these decisions...
i presume Germany is making the decision they cant fly over German airspace and have to fly around... so much for Nato unity
Are there any pro-Russian parts of Ukraine that aren't already under Russia's control anyway? I'm asking you as I don't know of any, but who knows. All parts that were pro-Russia are already separated — some de facto (DNR & LNR), some de jure, like Crimea (going by the Russian law — obviously in Ukraine's and most other countries it's still de jure Ukrainian).
I'm also not sure if any further economic sanctions would be a real threat to Putin's regime. He has been successfully attributing more or less everything bad to a foreign pressure, even, funnily enough, the Russian's retributive sanctions on Europe (we can't legally import any European cheese or meat, for example, way to say feck you to your own citizens, and most people think that it was Europe that introduced this — because who in his right mind would make sure that his own people wouldn't be able to enjoy prosciutto or parmesan). People won't be happy but is it going to be enough to overthrow his regime? One dollar costs around 77 rubles at the moment — compared to about 30 in mid-00s. He has raised a retirement age by 5 years (they won't pay you a pension until you're 65 if male and 60 if female, compared to 60 & 55 before) — an insanely unpopular move in his most loyal electorate & also something that he has explicitly said that he would never do. So yeah, it's not a democracy where something like this would be a death sentence for his future political career.
The people I speak with have good friends in Russia (as most UKR have family or friends over there), and the thing that always blows their minds is the absolute conviction that the Motherland should reclaim lost territory. These RUS friends of theirs are smart, but blinded by their patriotism. Once again, I'm basing this on the opinion of about 20 well-off UKR people. It is obviously much too small a sample size to make any real conclusion. And they are probably exaggeratingI wouldn't be so sure about the 3rd point — as you've said, Ukrainians are probably not the best sources for that (especially since Ukrainian propaganda also maintains, understandably so, a very anti-Russian course). Same with the next point — there was a huge wave of support for Belarus' people in Russia for example after their election & everything that followed. Putin also doesn't have a huge approval rating — it's slightly above 30% (unsurprisingly, an all-time low).
As for the second — an optimist in me thinks that Putin won't make it as far into the future (physically, not politically, I doubt that anyone would be able to overthrow him with the excessive amount of different safety precautions that he had established in all public institutions). And it's going to be a huge challenge to the system that he had built around himself, as we know from the history of authoritarian regimes. If (
And then I hope you're right about Putin. He should snuff it, the evil megalomaniac. But, he comes across as being quite fit... And healthy...
Yep.
There's certainly a huge amount of people that does believe anti-Ukrainian propaganda (and it's been flowing out of every TV, radio and now even YouTube for ages), but I wouldn't confidently say that more than 50% are actively backing the potential military aggression. Probably less so. Crimea was a bit different — at the time probably most of the country was happy with that decision (it was a bit of an unclosed gestalt for Russians historically), but even that country-wise support has more or less vaned after the consequences.
He is, sadly. But he's still 69, so in 2 decades he'd be almost as old as Biden.
Shit, now that I've made that joke I've googled Biden's age and he's 79 — and Putin seems healthier.
Wow, thanks for the info re: Russian opinion! And yikes, "probably less than 50% back potential military aggression"! That's still very high. I'd say far less than 20% of the West want that. It just goes to show, Russia wants an un-Nato'd Ukraine much more than the West is willing to enforce Ukraine's will to choose. In effect, the country is there for the taking.
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You have to understand the level of propaganda in internal Russian media. The vast majority is state controlled, those that arn't are at least influenced by Kremlin policy as voicing any opinion against it is quite risky.
I'd take it as a positive personally if >50% are against militayr aggression, all things considered.
I hear ya...
Imagine getting a phone call from a state controlled market researcher, asking with a threatening voice, "Are you in favour of Russian aggression against those vile Ukrainian dogs and their corrupted owners? Remember Mr Joneski from 843 Petrov Road - you will remain anonymous."