Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

just seen the live feed of Maidan Square in Ukraine, and aside from a few cars, it's totally empty.
 
Imagine an all out war with this level of public survellience.

Someone spots a USAF Blackhawk on flightrader heading to Ukraine from Poland, 10 mins later someone has a pic of it landing on the highway at the border.

 
I thoughts Biden was good at the press conference by the way. Though one wonders what kind of intel he was provided. One would have hoped a more positive reassuring message.
 
I will be up till around 2am as per normal so will be interesting to see what develops in the next few hours, if anything
 
I'm not sure why Reuters thinks a livestream of Maidan Square is so valuable right now. As if we're gonna witness live air strikes?
 
I'm not sure why Reuters thinks a livestream of Maidan Square is so valuable right now. As if we're gonna witness live air strikes?

I remember when the Gulf War happened, CNN had live feed on their channel and you got to see the first bombs hitting the city.

Probably Reuters want the same thing.
 
Apparently the same live feed is being streamed on several Russian sites also tonight.
 
I know they wouldn’t come back to the area but then if the area no longer considered itself by Ukraine and was recognised as such by Russia; would Shakhtar be still a Ukrainian club? It would be quite odd, to me, anyway; if they played in Ukraine whilst it’s area separated further from Ukraine.
Again, Shakhtar, as this situation had shown, is a Ukrainian club first & Donetsk's club second. If they were to prioritise Donetsk they would've had to either play there on their own or try & get in the Russian Premier League... they didn't. So how does any of the current developments change the situation? More so, from their perspective, a Ukrainian one, it doesn't matter if Donetsk gets officially recognised by Russia or not — from the Ukrainian point of view Donetsk will remain its own internal region, same as it is now (despite Donetsk' population considering themselves a sovereign state).

Is it odd though? Certainly.
 
It's hard to see Putin invading without a pretext (unless the pretext is this formalization of Eastern Donbass as part of Russia) but analysts I've been listening to say that if Russia want to invade they will have to decide in the next week or two due to deteriorating combat readiness of troops in deployment areas.

EDIT: I guess the Eastern Donbass resolution is just to recognize it as independent, not necessarily as part of Russia.
 
Again, Shakhtar, as this situation had shown, is a Ukrainian club first & Donetsk's club second. If they were to prioritise Donetsk they would've had to either play there on their own or try & get in the Russian Premier League... they didn't. So how does any of the current developments change the situation? More so, from their perspective, a Ukrainian one, it doesn't matter if Donetsk gets officially recognised by Russia or not — from the Ukrainian point of view Donetsk will remain its own internal region, same as it is now (despite Donetsk' population considering themselves a sovereign state).

Is it odd though? Certainly.
Fair enough mate.
 
Imagine an all out war with this level of public survellience.

Someone spots a USAF Blackhawk on flightrader heading to Ukraine from Poland, 10 mins later someone has a pic of it landing on the highway at the border.



Obviously, Putin and his invading goons would ensure the internet, tv and radio are turned off inside Ukraine.
 
Obviously, Putin and his invading goons would ensure the internet, tv and radio are turned off inside Ukraine.
Can they do that? Genuine question, I'm not fully up to date on technological weapons & stuff. I know that they can crash certain websites etc. (which they're doing again at the moment).
 
Can they do that? Genuine question, I'm not fully up to date on technological weapons & stuff. I know that they can crash certain websites etc. (which they're doing again at the moment).

Well tonight they cyber attacked several Ukrainian military sites and banks.

Disrupting MOD and Ukrainian communications as well as their financial structure, only strengthens a Russian incursion happening very soon.
 
Can they do that? Genuine question, I'm not fully up to date on technological weapons & stuff. I know that they can crash certain websites etc. (which they're doing again at the moment).

Yes and they would have to, otherwise an invasion would turn out to be a massive PR disaster if images and videos of death and destruction were uploaded in real time. Putin has apparently also recently been snooping around transatlantic internet cables off the coast of Ireland, presumably as a means to retaliate against NATO should he invade and Biden put sanctions in place. 95% of internet traffic from Europe to North America goes through undersea cables.
 
wow...

Russia is actually capable of
1. Cyberhacking banks, military sites, and somehow some dude on twitters know it before the Ukraine and the rest of the world
2. They have Iron Shroom curtain that blackouts the internet of their whole neighboring country.
3. Reuters somehow have a penetrating technology that somehow have a live feed in Kyiv despite No.2

Meanwhile

https://www.tiktok.com/discover/kyiv-ukraine?lang=en

https://earth.google.com/web/@30.62...NkMTFlODg0NWZlMzMwNDQyNjFkNjgiCmdjc19pdGluXzE
 
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Yes and they would have to, otherwise an invasion would turn out to be a massive PR disaster if images and videos of death and destruction were uploaded in real time. Putin has apparently also recently been snooping around transatlantic internet cables off the coast of Ireland, presumably as a means to retaliate against NATO should he invade and Biden put sanctions in place. 95% of internet traffic from Europe to North America goes through undersea cables.
Oh, yeah, knew about the cables, didn't think that he would cut off the entire Europe for Ukraine. To be fair it'll probably cause a bigger reaction than the invasion itself!
 
Let's be perfectly clear, if Putin cuts my internet I will invade the Kremlin.
 
Oh, yeah, knew about the cables, didn't think that he would cut off the entire Europe for Ukraine. To be fair it'll probably cause a bigger reaction than the invasion itself!

Lets face it, nothing is worse in 2022 than having no WiFi! Nothing :lol:
 
I think you overestimate their amount. They’re not bots — not technically, it’s just the name that got stuck to them, it’s real people who are paid to spread the required message. They are strategically positioned — in the comments of large Western media, on Reddit etc. their norm is about 120-150 comments per day per person. We obviously don’t know the exact amount of them but they’re most likely to be in thousands, tens of thousands would be a stretch. Even if we say that it’s 20k and every one of them has, say, 5 accounts, it’s like 100k. Facebook’s active monthly user base is closing up to 3 billion people.

This sounds about right. I think some people really overestimate the effect of "Russian bots." First, they aren't actually "bots" as you mention and troll farms are all over the place. In 2016, the Trump campaign's disinformation efforts completely dwarfed any foreign influence on Facebook ads and there was that recent article (which I can't find at the moment) where someone (an American) that worked for a right-wing misinformation company confessed to how he would set up hundreds of websites for misinformation. We've all seen plenty of evidence of how right-wing movements radicalized people in the last few years quite effectively on their own (sadly) without the need for any outside influence.

I think it's fairly simple because tons of research has existed for years that went facts contradict someone's belief system, they will quickly discard the facts rather than reform their belief system.
 
This sounds about right. I think some people really overestimate the effect of "Russian bots." First, they aren't actually "bots" as you mention and troll farms are all over the place. In 2016, the Trump campaign's disinformation efforts completely dwarfed any foreign influence on Facebook ads and there was that recent article (which I can't find at the moment) where someone (an American) that worked for a right-wing misinformation company confessed to how he would set up hundreds of websites for misinformation. We've all seen plenty of evidence of how right-wing movements radicalized people in the last few years quite effectively on their own (sadly) without the need for any outside influence.

I think it's fairly simple because tons of research has existed for years that went facts contradict someone's belief system, they will quickly discard the facts rather than reform their belief system.
Indeed, the British state literally funded a troll farm dedicated to discrediting the leader of the opposition (both illegal and unsurprising). It's just easier and far more convenient to blame an external threat; and it's not that there isn't external influence, but that it is largely marginal. It works to reify the false Manchurian Candidate scenario in many people's heads which is politically expedient but factually dubious.
 
You don't need bots to know what people's opinion varies, even us United fans sees Ole in many different lights, and that's without actually Paid bots.

With the advent of Internet, people are reading all sorts of opinions, blurred facts, biased reporting, clickbait, live stream, live blogging from places and events that we won't even dream of visiting in the past (Jan 6th insurrection for example is readily streamed but still Americans see 2 different thing, BLM protest, etc.)

Most of us has information readily on our hands, some chose A, other chose B, in the end there'll be polarized.

What I believe is that the big players in the worlds has made a punch line their readers can use to debate on the internet, punch line such as "Russian hackers", "Insurrections", "Mentally disturbed instead of terrorist" and many other jargons that are being used to create the narratives of certain stories made it much much easier for teenager to engage in politics and repeating those lines. These sort of punchlines are repeated in our daily lives, most often in WAG most of the times peddling hatred and conspiracy theorist nonstop.

We are conditioned to hate, to condemn, to fear, to antagonize on daily basis
 
You don't need bots to know what people's opinion varies, even us United fans sees Ole in many different lights, and that's without actually Paid bots.

With the advent of Internet, people are reading all sorts of opinions, blurred facts, biased reporting, clickbait, live stream, live blogging from places and events that we won't even dream of visiting in the past (Jan 6th insurrection for example is readily streamed but still Americans see 2 different thing, BLM protest, etc.)

Most of us has information readily on our hands, some chose A, other chose B, in the end there'll be polarized.

What I believe is that the big players in the worlds has made a punch line their readers can use to debate on the internet, punch line such as "Russian hackers", "Insurrections", "Mentally disturbed instead of terrorist" and many other jargons that are being used to create the narratives of certain stories made it much much easier for teenager to engage in politics and repeating those lines. These sort of punchlines are repeated in our daily lives, most often in WAG most of the times peddling hatred and conspiracy theorist nonstop.

We are conditioned to hate, to condemn, to fear, to antagonize on daily basis


I'll just leave this here. Thirty years old and still magnificently relevant.
 
It's not. The estimation in April were 120k troops and today it's around 120k-150k. The exercise from September in Belarus counted around 200k troops according to reports.

It wasn’t. You know it wasn’t. You posted articles yourself from that period quoting simply >100k.

I’m not sure what you get from pushing this falsehood. But it’s silly. Stop please.
 
Calling it now. He’ll push west from the east in Donbas. Under the guise of “peacekeeping.” Won’t go west of Dnepr, won’t attempt to take Odessa. May continue sea blockade for a while.

Pretty sure I made an almost identical call a few weeks ago, so sticking with it. It’s the logical move for a risk averse emperor.

@harms can call me out when I’m inevitably wrong,
 
So it was all one huge training exercise ?
Involving 130K troops and associated toys, ships, planes and tanks.
So all the intelligence saying an invasion was imminent were wrong ?

That is a hell of a training exercise that coincidentally surrounded Ukraine.
 
Can they do that? Genuine question, I'm not fully up to date on technological weapons & stuff. I know that they can crash certain websites etc. (which they're doing again at the moment).

If you wanted to knock TV and radio out across an entire country, the easiest way would be to just go after power IMO. Ukraine has circa 20 major power stations and you'd only need to take out certain ones as you only need to reduce generation to be under demand before the grid shits itself. UK has around 1,000 TV transmitters as an example, so far more targets you'd need to take out in some way, I'm not aware of any singular electronic warfare capability capable enough to jam the entire radio spectrum across an area the size of Ukraine.
 
You don't need bots to know what people's opinion varies, even us United fans sees Ole in many different lights, and that's without actually Paid bots.

With the advent of Internet, people are reading all sorts of opinions, blurred facts, biased reporting, clickbait, live stream, live blogging from places and events that we won't even dream of visiting in the past (Jan 6th insurrection for example is readily streamed but still Americans see 2 different thing, BLM protest, etc.)

Most of us has information readily on our hands, some chose A, other chose B, in the end there'll be polarized.

What I believe is that the big players in the worlds has made a punch line their readers can use to debate on the internet, punch line such as "Russian hackers", "Insurrections", "Mentally disturbed instead of terrorist" and many other jargons that are being used to create the narratives of certain stories made it much much easier for teenager to engage in politics and repeating those lines. These sort of punchlines are repeated in our daily lives, most often in WAG most of the times peddling hatred and conspiracy theorist nonstop.

We are conditioned to hate, to condemn, to fear, to antagonize on daily basis

It's funny you say that, I work in Info Security for designated Critical National Infrastructure here in UK. I can tell you for a fact that "Russian hackers" is no myth and we've been able to attribute attempted attacks on our infrastructure to Russian groups through forensic investigation. These groups are clearly acting with relative impunity from the Russian government (Although REvil recently changes that somewhat - But I imagine they have their reasons.) A majority of the entire global Ransomware revenue goes to groups linked to Russia.

That doesn't mean the US doesn't do the same through the NSA or the UK via GCHQ. But they tend to be very focused, targetted attacks e.g. Stuxnet vs let's try to DDOS a bank offline.
 
It's funny you say that, I work in Info Security for designated Critical National Infrastructure here in UK. I can tell you for a fact that "Russian hackers" is no myth and we've been able to attribute attempted attacks on our infrastructure to Russian groups through forensic investigation. These groups are clearly acting with relative impunity from the Russian government (Although REvil recently changes that somewhat - But I imagine they have their reasons.)

That doesn't mean the US doesn't do the same through the NSA or the UK via GCHQ. But they tend to be very focused, targetted attacks e.g. Stuxnet vs let's try to DDOS a bank offline.

Hackers arent wumaos. We're talking paid people to influence opinions by actively engaging in discussions.

They're two absolutely different entity.
 
If you wanted to knock TV and radio out across an entire country, the easiest way would be to just go after power IMO. Ukraine has circa 20 major power stations and you'd only need to take out certain ones as you only need to reduce generation to be under demand before the grid shits itself. UK has around 1,000 TV transmitters as an example, so far more targets you'd need to take out in some way, I'm not aware of any singular electronic warfare capability capable enough to jam the entire radio spectrum across an area the size of Ukraine.

Cough... genset.

And putin doesnt need to do that. If invasion does happen we can see it live from satellites. This is not the 50s

Knocking down 20 powerstation to prevent invasion from being known is like demolishing a house to disarm the alarm
 
Did Russia invade Ukraine yet or did people come to terms with the fact that US-NATO is full of shit per usual?
 
Hackers arent wumaos. We're talking paid people to influence opinions by actively engaging in discussions.

They're two absolutely different entity.

Sorry my post wasn't clear. I was trying to make the point that people are now even getting confused if the whole "russian hackers" is a thing span up by the West to create anti-Russian rhetoric. When it's very real. The whole thing means no one knows what to believe and what not to anymore.

Cough... genset.

And putin doesnt need to do that. If invasion does happen we can see it live from satellites. This is not the 50s

Most continuity plans assume an isolated outage. For our data centres for example we have a contract for a company to supply fuel indefinitely to run the generators. This is great if the data centre loses power or there is a local event or it's a short outage. What happens when it's an entire country with no indication of when the power is coming back and data centres, military, hospitals, emergency services, shops etc etc all want fuel at the same time?

You really don't need to knock down 20 power stations, you need to disable a handful with a few cruise missiles. 20 will never run all the same time, some will be offline for maintenance etc, so providing Russia knocked out enough capacity that those remaining online and on stand-by can no longer meet demand, the grid falls over. If they knocked out Ukraine's 4 nuclear plants, I expect Ukraine would go dark.
 
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Sorry my post wasn't clear. I was trying to make the point that people are now even getting confused if the whole "russian hackers" is a thing span up by the West to create anti-Russian rhetoric. When it's very real. The whole thing means no one knows what to believe and what not to anymore.



Most continuity plans assume an isolated outage. For our data centres for example we have a contract for a company to supply fuel indefinitely to run the generators. This is great if the data centre loses power or there is a local event or it's a short outage. What happens when it's an entire country with no indication of when the power is coming back and data centres, military, hospitals, emergency services, shops etc etc all want fuel at the same time?

You really don't need to knock down 20 power stations, you need to disable a handful with a few cruise missiles. 20 will never run all the same time, some will be offline for maintenance etc, so providing Russia knocked out enough capacity that those remaining online and on stand-by can no longer meet demand, the grid falls over. If they knocked out Ukraine's 4 nuclear plants, I expect Ukraine would go dark.

I'm not saying power outage isnt a valid war strategy

Just that the notion that putin is blacking out the whole Ukraine to mask his first strike is unreasonable. The sort of what if being peddled on reddit.

They'd be at war long before that happens

And cyber army are real. I'm sure most nations has their own cyber squad for security measures. I just dont think they're state funded to hack for monetary profits. Well... perhapa North Korea does.