Vlad won’t like a President Haley
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the videos posted it looked like it was MRAPs and HMMWVs, sounds more like a reconnaissance force than a large scale offensive force.
Wonder if the Ukrainians have their own term for "maskirovka".
Worrying Reports from a failed Ukraine counteroffensive in Donetsk, not much UA are saying but Russian MOd saying they’ve thwarted a big attack that’s completely failed. Killed 250 UA soldiers and showing pictures of lots of UA tanks and equipment burning. I hope it’s not true and should be Taken with a pinch of salt I guess.
The Russian authorities could come out and say that tomorrow the sun will rise due east and set due west and my response would be...let's wait and see. They're pathological liars on a nation/state level.
russian MoD, really? As always it doesn’t show any video footage, or any other kind of visual proof of which there would plenty as of now if it was even remotely true. This sort of informational warfare will only intensify from Russia side with prepared old footage as the counteroffensive approaches, people need to be vigilant.According to the same source they took Bakhmut last year...
Yeah can’t believe anything they say, as I said should be taken with a pinch of salt. I hope it’s all a feint by the UA. But something is going on there.
Will probably stage few tanks in unnatural positions claiming those are the tanks they destroyed and thus stopped the offensive.
It’s already had a positive effect apparently. According to someone on Reddit, so take it with a pinch of salt, Russia have been on high alert multiple times because of it, giving Ukraine intel on how they’ll react for the real offensive. Also means Russia won’t know when it’s really happening so may end up lax when it does.
It is very likely that Ukraine performs some reconnaissance in force operations, the nature of these is that they retreat once they hit heavy resistance.
It is quite probable that Russia will claim that such operations are failed offensives, but that doesn't mean that they ever were meant as such. And of course they always claim lots of Ukrainian losses, that usually can't be true anyways.
Yup. Last year they showed a picture of a tank stuck in mud as proof they were getting Ukrainians to abandon their tanks. Turned out it was a picture of a Danish tank which had gotten stuck during Danish military exercises in Denmark in the past. It was just a convenient picture for them.
There are reports Wagner is deploying to Belogrod. I'm not sure which side they are going to join up with at this point.
I agree, what we are seeing now is Ukraine testing the Russian defenses to get an idea of how strongly Russia is able to respond in different sectors.
As Ukraine enters into a tighter Opsec phase before the imminent counteroffensive the informational space will be filled in by Russian garbage during the next weeks:
F18 supply gaining traction.
In other news, its D-Day 
In other news, its D-Day
SUPREME HEADQUARTERS
ALLIED EXPEDITIONARY FORCE
Soldiers, Sailors, and Airmen of the Allied Expeditionary Force!
You are about to embark upon the Great Crusade, toward which we have striven these many months. The eyes of the world are upon you. The hope and prayers of liberty-loving people everywhere march with you. In company with our brave Allies and brothers-in-arms on other Fronts, you will bring about the destruction of the Russian war machine, the elimination of Russian tyranny over the oppressed peoples of Europe, and security for ourselves in a free world.
Your task will not be an easy one. Your enemy is well trained, well equipped and battle-hardened. He will fight savagely.
But this is the year 2023! Much has happened since the Russian triumphs of 2022. The United Nations have inflicted upon the Russians great defeats, in open battle, man-to-man. Our air offensive has seriously reduced their strength in the air and their capacity to wage war on the ground. Our Home Fronts have given us an overwhelming superiority in weapons and munitions of war, and placed at our disposal great reserves of trained fighting men. The tide has turned! The free men of the world are marching together to Victory!
I have full confidence in your courage, devotion to duty and skill in battle. We will accept nothing less than full Victory!
Good luck! And let us beseech the blessing of Almighty God upon this great and noble undertaking.
That amount of water has to do some damage to both sides of the river, no?
Here's an article about what might happen if the dam is blown. Looking at the maps, the East bank (southern at this point) is much lower lying than the West bank so the Russians will bear the brunt of the damage. It seems that Kherson will only have minor flooding in a few areas, while the Russian-occupied side will be inundated. The major issue could be the nuclear plant losing the water that cools it, which I guess could force the Russians to abandon it to let Ukraine deal with it.
https://cornucopia.se/2022/10/worst-case-modelling-for-nova-kakhovka-dam-break/
I'm also curious how they could've done this since it would take quite the hit to blow the dam.
I trust this guy:
When I google this dam, most of the articles are about the threat if Russia blows it. Are we certain the Ukrainians did? I'm curious to know if Russia would assume they would never do that, so kept a bunch of their troops closer to the river. And I wonder how fast that dam burst is going, fast enough to risk killing troops or just equipment that can't be moved on time
This might leave Crimea without fresh water again. The canal that provides the peninsula with fresh water starts just upstream from the dam.
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Since the Ukrainians have blamed Russia, it may have been the Russians who blew it. Depending on their lines, it could be a strategic blunder, but when has that stopped the Russians before? Russian state media are now saying it collapsed as a result of damage. There was a NY Times piece a few days ago about how Russians had raised the reservoir to 30 year highs, which could have resulted in the dam collapsing since it had been damaged. Whether they blew it up or not, it seems that it was likely Russian sabotage.
Edit: video of explosion at the dam was from November 2022.
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Looks like the Russians are a bit dazed and confused as to what is happening to them at the moment. The Ukrainians (or their proxies) are causing chaos inside Russia, lauching small, probing counteroffensives near the eastern front, and attempting to flood the Russians out of the south. All before the Ukrainians themselves launch any meaningful attacks.
If it's real (apparently it isn't, altough Russian denying it makes me think it's likely), then it's fantastic news for Ukraine. Nova Kakhovka is Crimea's main source of fresh water. Russia losing it would mean that they can't just dig in and resist in Crimea. They would have to go meet the UA halfway or risk the collapse of their logistics.
No way “shelling“ caused that to the dam, that amount of damage takes a massive amount of explosives and Ukraine are not in possesion of any such long range weapons. My guess it was blown up using planted explosives and a large amount of it.
Australian news now reporting this as fact / real