It also doesn’t include the fact the biggest bottlers of all team are included -Spurs. I think it’ll come down to us getting perhaps a draw v Liverpool at home perhaps beating Chelsea away or nicking a win v Arsenal.
Race for Top 5 finish - Possible 5 teams in CL next season
- Thread starter Red00012
- Start date
It would take an injury free finish to the season. Maguire , AWB and Hojlund are back . Martinez and Mount are back after the international break. Realistically we would hopefully be only missing Shaw for the run in.
A big problem is, that we have no left back. We saw how the team can gel when Shaw Martinez and hojlund are fit. Just hope its enough for cl. Even if fans don’t like it, cl is the most important to improve a team as the financial impact is massiv an players are more likely to join
Utd have the easier remaining fixtures, though if it comes down to goal difference we’re fecked.
Do we? We still have to play Arsenal, Pool, Chelsea, Brighton - all of which id be a bit surprised if we won given our form this season.
Reckon only Arsenal and Pool will be odds on to beat Utd.
Whereas all the other remaining teams will be odds against to beat Utd.
I don't know why people are even considering we're getting 5th, it's gone bar a massive collapse of Spurs or Villa.
This is 100% correct with the caveat that should West Ham win the Europa League and finish 8th, assuming EPL gets the 5th CL spot then 6, yes 6 English teams would qualify for the CL. Sixth and seventh would still get Europa League if One of the Top 6 (City, Liverpool or United won the Fa Cup.Exactly my point.
If we finish 6th, we can only end up in the Conference League if England doesn't get the additional Champions League spot and the FA Cup isn't won by a team already qualified for Europe by their league finish (basically Liverpool or City). If we finish 7th, we get the Conference league if England gets the extra spot or the FA Cup is won by Liverpool or City, but not if both happens - then we would get Europa League.
Basically, this is the situation:
At least if I'm understanding it right. Happy to be corrected.
So using current positions ; Arsenal, Liverpool, City, Villa, Spurs and West Ham all CL. United and Brighton would qualify Europa League and Wolves would qualify for Europa Conference league play off.
That’s 9 English teams, which basically is a cheat code because the more EPL team compete and win the more likely they are to always have one of the extra two spaces.
Now fans can understand why 7th place to 12th is so competitive as 4th to 6th and 1st to 3rd this season, the days of 95+ points to win the EPL are long gone!
I completely agree with you but your get shot down on this thread like I did for talking sense, we lost 11 EPL games from 28, there’s no way United are qualifying for CL with that level of defeats.
We would need 8 wins from 10 games to get to 71 points, the bare minimum normally required for CL qualification is 70-73 points.
It’s not happening, the Fulham defeat made sure of that !
Maybe, but we've lost every game v Brighton under ETH and always look like shite at their stadium. Chelsea away is no walk in the park. I'd probably expect 2-4 points from those games which would likely take us out of a top 5 race.
The only games we'll be 'odds on' favourites are likely to be Sheff Utd and Burnley at home.
Chelsea, Brighton, Liverpool and Arsenal will all be favourites against us.
I would be incredibly surprised if we're anything other than 6th. We have not shown the capacity to go on the sort of run needed to get to 5th for a long time. Fulham was a death blow.
Unless Ten Hag is gone I see no reason to give a shit about qualifying for the CL. The imbecile couldn't make it higher than bottom in the easiest group we could've wished for.
It makes the whole thing even more ridiculous that we're now desperately hoping we scrape through by finishing 5th. 5th for feck sake. "Champions" league my arse
It makes the whole thing even more ridiculous that we're now desperately hoping we scrape through by finishing 5th. 5th for feck sake. "Champions" league my arse
Reckon Utd will need to (unlikely) average at least 2 points per game (67 pts) to have any chance at all of getting 5th.
Realistically think 6th is the best Utd could do, although if Chelsea beat Utd they could nick it.
Way too optimistic. We won’t go the rest of the season without losing again.
Financially a CL qualification would be huge
I think we have the easiest run in of the three, but you’re probably right.
Starting from now, how many believe we'll top the mini table between the three sides from here to the end of the season?
If Liverpool win the europa and the pl get the extra place from UEFA we only need to finish 6th to qualify?
Can’t see us making up 8 points between now and seasons end with either Spurs or Villa. But then again they have far better managers than us.
Not sure. Wouldn’t the runners up of the Europa get it if that team isn’t top 4 in there league?
I can't see it. Spurs and Villa both generally play far better football than we do, coupled by the fact they are already ahead of us.
Not sure. Villa possibly have the easiest fixtures left. But spurs could easily beat Arsenal/City at home. Where as we could just as easy loose an home game to Burnley
Do you honestly think they’ll allow 6 English clubs into the CL?
Brentford away going to be tricky aswell for you guys given it was 4-0 last season, they have Toney back and losing in the manner they did at OT would've hurt them incredibly. And of course they're still thick in the relegation battle.
Strange time to bump the thread as tbh given your next three games are two aways in London (lost three times there already this season) and then home to Liverpool you could be further off 5th than you are now.
After the break Spurs have Luton at home and we have Wolves at home who have a mountain of injuries so the gap could easily increase.
Licha back equals us winning matches
Spurs playing Newcastle, City, Arsenal, Liverpool in a raw
I don’t but the Chelsea grading here. They can turn it on and play above their current position
Spurs playing Newcastle, City, Arsenal, Liverpool in a raw
As in points over the next 10 games? We might beat Villa by a couple of points but Spurs will top it.
Sheffield United and Burnley at home + maybe Palace away are the games I do expect us to win. Brentford and Bournemouth away we could drop points (especially at Bournemouth), while Chelsea and Newcastle are the ones where you feel a draw is realistic outcome. Brighton beat us every time under ten Hag and Arsenal are way better than us. So even if we were ahead of Spurs and Villa, I wouldn't be optimistic with how we play. Behind behind both teams with dreadful goal difference, our chances are even tinier.
Think Spurs finish 4th and then our only hope is Villa start dropping points (which I can see happening) and playing EL affects their league form. So it's an outside chance for us mostly.
Think Spurs finish 4th and then our only hope is Villa start dropping points (which I can see happening) and playing EL affects their league form. So it's an outside chance for us mostly.
Whatever happened to 538's predictions? Looks like they stopped maintaining their probabilities for PL and CL
Who's "they" and what's for them to "allow"? If England get the extra coefficient spot and WHU win the Europa League (but finish midtable), England will get 6 teams in next season's Champions League.
We’ll also have to be at least 6 clear also
It’ll be top 5
However it ends up I think 5 is maximum for any country
No 6 is maximum, but, that requires a premier league team winning the champions league but finishing outside top 4, and a premier league team finishing outside the top 4 winning the Europa league, and England getting an extra spot from highest 2 European association coefficient.
It will be top 3,
CL winner
UL winner
Extra CL spot for 4th for highest European association
Don't think this is possible with the new format next season.
It’s 7 maximum actually .