Race for top 4 | Finito.

Rightnr said:
Since we lost those two games, we're in essentially title-winning form and it's only Arsenal's 100-points-per-season form keeping them so far ahead.

We won't maintain this until May imho because of fixture congestion but still a very impressive turn-around, both results-wise and in playing performances.

Tl; dr: ten Hag is God.
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Not quite title winning these days. Our overall points pace is 76pts. Since the 3rd game would be on pace for 86pts which isn’t enough to win these days. Solid form though.
 
I don’t think we’ll compete but if Newcastle were being talked up as challengers then we certainly are. The key thing is for us to make sure we are there if City and Arsenal have a bad run. Just keep doing our thing and who knows what opportunity is there for us.
 
Priority should be League, League cup (best chance for a cup without running down the squad), Europa league and then FA cup. I don’t mind playing 100% kids in FA cup.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Are you sure about that? Newcastle, Arsenal and City certainly don’t. Liverpool and Chelsea maybe do? Although neither of them have as obvious a gap in their squad as we do up top.

EDIT: Actually, yeah. Chelsea also in need of another striker.
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Liverpool have a huge problem in centre midfield though. They look so slow and lethargic in there and any time an opponent ups the tempo they crumble.

They still create loads of chances but they also give away an absolute ton of chances too.
 
Can Newcastle do a Ranieri’s Leicester and go all the way with an incredible run that everyone expected to fade away, but proved everyone wrong?
 
Longlivekeano said:
Can Newcastle do a Ranieri’s Leicester and go all the way with an incredible run that everyone expected to fade away, but proved everyone wrong?
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No, there a good few players short. They’ll slowly drop down the table and sixth would be about right. Leicester had a very good first 11. If united can maintain there current form there is no reason we can’t get closer to the top. If we finished above City and got 2nd and got a trophy it would be a phenomenal first season under Ten Hag.
 
Longlivekeano said:
Can Newcastle do a Ranieri’s Leicester and go all the way with an incredible run that everyone expected to fade away, but proved everyone wrong?
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Unlikely. They could be 4th by tomorrow night with almost half the season gone and three traditionally bigger clubs ahead of them in the table.

The closer Leicester comparison is probably Arsenal themselves. A team who nobody believed could win it (I still don't, really) but a good start and their confidence has snowballed and given them a real chance of challenging.
 
red thru&thru said:
In no particular order:

Arsenal
City
LFC
Newcastle

I'm just maybe being pessimistic. I just feel we lack goals.
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You aren't pessimistic we do lack goals hence the need for a Morata/Thuram to improve things on that side a bit. Depay just hasn't scored enough for me to be considered.
 
GMoore23 said:
We'll be 3rd at the halfway stage and we'll finish no lower than 3rd.

Although it's highly unlikely, if we were to get a top striker in January, I still think we could win it.
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Who is the best we can get in January
 
Just Hope said:
Suddenly everyone stopped laughing at us. What a difference an actual manager and a couple of good signings manage to make.

WE ARE (at the beginning of a long process that will hopefully take us) BACK (to where we rightfully belong).
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Too soon. Haha, nice white text
 
Longlivekeano said:
Can Newcastle do a Ranieri’s Leicester and go all the way with an incredible run that everyone expected to fade away, but proved everyone wrong?
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No. They cannot. And they will be #4, us advancing to #3, if we beat Bournemouth today.
 
CM10 said:
Unlikely. They could be 4th by tomorrow night with almost half the season gone and three traditionally bigger clubs ahead of them in the table.

The closer Leicester comparison is probably Arsenal themselves. A team who nobody believed could win it (I still don't, really) but a good start and their confidence has snowballed and given them a real chance of challenging.
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People keep saying Newcastle will fade. Look at their GD. They gave City all they could handle earlier in the season. St Maximin is back and should be going the full 90 in most matches. They are legitimately good. It will be a dogfight for top 4.
 
DSG said:
People keep saying Newcastle will fade. Look at their GD. They gave City all they could handle earlier in the season. St Maximin is back and should be going the full 90 in most matches. They are legitimately good. It will be a dogfight for top 4.
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They have been doing great so far, that’s for sure. However, if you look at their starting 11, they really have no business in the Top 4 and I would expect them to drop off over the course of a season.
 
We are now odds on with the bookies to finish top4

Newcastle could still upset the bookies expectations though, the only ones with no European distraction too
 
Djemba-Djemba said:
They still create loads of chances but they also give away an absolute ton of chances too.
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People seem to be forgetting this. They are only a few points behind us despite people acting as if Liverpool are facing relegation and they are still creating loads of chances. Difference at the moment is that they aren't putting them away and they are like a sieve in defence and midfield so scoring one or two goals won't win them a lot of games. If they can catch up with their xG they will be in the running for top 4.

Nunez isn't top class but a one legged blind man would score goals in this Liverpool team eventually. Salah will find his form again as well.
 
DSG said:
People keep saying Newcastle will fade. Look at their GD. They gave City all they could handle earlier in the season. St Maximin is back and should be going the full 90 in most matches. They are legitimately good. It will be a dogfight for top 4.
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They're doing well but we're 2 points behind them with a game in hand and they're facing Arsenal away next. It's possible they finish top 4 but there's no chance they go on and win the league this season.

Saint-Maximin was good against City but he's traditionally been the type of player to only turn up for a handful of games each season anyway. He doesn't really change their fortunes much.

I think it's only a matter of time before Liverpool get it together and go on a run as well. They can't continue playing as badly as they have.
 
Even though Gakpo hasn't kicked a ball, I am not too worried about his impact on the top four race. Midfield is where they are really struggling, so I would be much more worried, if they had brought in a quality midfielder.

I feel quite a bit better about our chances now than I did after the WC had just ended.
 
now Chelsea and Liverpool are 7 points behind us (i.e. we got 2 games cushion). If tottenham loses 1 more game, we are 7 points above the 5th and we are in kinda safe situation.
 
JeffFromHK said:
now Chelsea and Liverpool are 7 points behind us (i.e. we got 2 games cushion). If tottenham loses 1 more game, we are 7 points above the 5th and we are in kinda safe situation.
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let’s first win tonight and get ourselves a 7 point cushion ….

I think we will need a 10 points cushion vs pool and Chelsea by mid season to be relatively safe of finishing top 3…
 
JeffFromHK said:
now Chelsea and Liverpool are 7 points behind us (i.e. we got 2 games cushion). If tottenham loses 1 more game, we are 7 points above the 5th and we are in kinda safe situation.
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A buffer is definitely needed but I wouldn’t read too much into it as we have to go away to all our rivals bar City and Chelsea.

I’d gladly take a draw vs City and Arsenal right now.
 
sparx99 said:
Not quite title winning these days. Our overall points pace is 76pts. Since the 3rd game would be on pace for 86pts which isn’t enough to win these days. Solid form though.
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It might be enough in this unusual season with the heavily congested fixture list. Arsenal are flying & even though I rate Arteta and his team pretty highly, I don't expect them to reach 95-100 pts, I'd say 90-92 at best. And City are on course for only 85.5 currently. Of course there's a lot of variance even over 38 games and a few unlucky / unjust results could mean a difference of 5-10 points, which is a lot at the end of the day.

I don't see us winning the title barring some cinderella story, but 75-80 pts could legitimately mean a title challenge this season. And I don't think we're finishing below 72-73. We've been extremely difficult to beat ever since ten Hag reverted to a more pragmatic type of football after Brentford, with only Arsenal and City being able to perform well and control the match against us.
 
I said at the start of the season if we're any decent top four is sure. In recent years have there been a real top four race? Its usually two to three teams pulling away and the rest trying real hard not to make it.
There's a reason Ole achieved 2nd and 3rd place, this year isn't any different. A side with our quality showing decent level of consistency result wise would achieve top 4. At the moment we look well on course.
 
Trex said:
I said at the start of the season if we're any decent top four is sure. In recent years have there been a real top four race? Its usually two to three teams pulling away and the rest trying real hard not to make it.
There's a reason Ole achieved 2nd and 3rd place, this year isn't any different. A side with our quality showing decent level of consistency result wise would achieve top 4. At the moment we look well on course.
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Don't downplay Ole's second place finish, please. We were pretty strong that season with basically only adding Cavani and Telles, and would've finished at least top 3 even if Liverpool and Chelsea weren't struggling. We threw away a lot of points in the beginning of the season to Palace & Spurs, and in the end against Leicester, Liverpool and Fulham since it didn't really matter anymore. 2nd place was secured and the title was too far away. We also threw away a deep CL run.

In 19/20 you can argue that we needed things to go our way and only got 66 points anyways. But next season we were definitely an 80+ point team that could give any team in Europe a good challenge.

For me personally, 2020/21 was also the best season in terms of the football we played post-SAF. I was actually looking forward to seeing us play, because I knew I wouldn't be bored to death like I was way too many times under LVG & José.
 
Rojofiam said:
It might be enough in this unusual season with the heavily congested fixture list. Arsenal are flying & even though I rate Arteta and his team pretty highly, I don't expect them to reach 95-100 pts, I'd say 90-92 at best. And City are on course for only 85.5 currently. Of course there's a lot of variance even over 38 games and a few unlucky / unjust results could mean a difference of 5-10 points, which is a lot at the end of the day.

I don't see us winning the title barring some cinderella story, but 75-80 pts could legitimately mean a title challenge this season. And I don't think we're finishing below 72-73. We've been extremely difficult to beat ever since ten Hag reverted to a more pragmatic type of football after Brentford, with only Arsenal and City being able to perform well and control the match against us.
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80 pts being a legitimate challenge means Le Arse will have to be in relegation form for 15+ games out of remaining 22. You see that happening?

Meanwhile, if they were to get to 90 pts, that means 47 out of 66 = a leeway of 5 losses and 2 draws, top 4 pace rather than title winning form, while if we are to get to 90 pts, we need to get 58 from 66, can only lose twice and draw once. Then there’s also the small matter of GD.

It’s nice and all to dream, but cold hard numbers just don’t support that hypothesis, looking at the respective form of the 2 clubs.
 
Rojofiam said:
Don't downplay Ole's second place finish, please. We were pretty strong that season with basically only adding Cavani and Telles, and would've finished at least top 3 even if Liverpool and Chelsea weren't struggling. We threw away a lot of points in the beginning of the season to Palace & Spurs, and in the end against Leicester, Liverpool and Fulham since it didn't really matter anymore. 2nd place was secured and the title was too far away. We also threw away a deep CL run.

In 19/20 you can argue that we needed things to go our way and only got 66 points anyways. But next season we were definitely an 80+ point team that could give any team in Europe a good challenge.

For me personally, 2020/21 was also the best season in terms of the football we played post-SAF. I was actually looking forward to seeing us play, because I knew I wouldn't be bored to death like I was way too many times under LVG & José.
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That post wasn't about Ole you fan boi. I was emphasizing the nature of the so called "top four race" which is hardly a race in about any year. I mean we have made top four 4 times post SAF, and its usually quite comfortable when we do. And when we don't we're hardly any good yet there will be multiple opportunities to get in which we simply throw away.
Our level for so far this season is good enough to make it so far as we don't have a sudden mega U-turn.
I'm not one to worry so much about the competition because every single year you'll have multiple members of the top 6 having a poor season. So it largely up to us to keep it going.
 
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Trex said:
That post wasn't about Ole you fan boi. I was emphasizing the nature of the so called "top four race" which is hardly a race in about any year. I mean we have made top four 4 types post SAF, and its usually quite comfortable when we do. And when we don't we're hardly any good yet there will be multiple opportunities to get in which we simply throw away.
Our level for so far this season is good enough to make it so far as we don't have a sudden mega U-turn.
I'm not one to worry so much about the competition because every single year you'll have multiple members of the top 6 having a poor season. So it largely up to us to keep it going.
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Yeah, every season there's at least 2 teams that fall apart and don't even come close to expectations. This season it seems to be Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool so far.
 
Today and also Everton on Friday are big opportunities to REALLY strike into the top 3 and take advantage, build momentum.

We had a few of those marchdays under Ole and failed everytime. I hope it will be different this time.
 
doomy20 said:
Today and also Everton on Friday are big opportunities to REALLY strike into the top 3 and take advantage, build momentum.

We had a few of those marchdays under Ole and failed everytime. I hope it will be different this time.
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Everton is a FA cup game, so it's just today.
 
JinnerJamie said:
A buffer is definitely needed but I wouldn’t read too much into it as we have to go away to all our rivals bar City and Chelsea.

I’d gladly take a draw vs City and Arsenal right now.
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That's true but we have actually beaten all 3 of the rivals we need to go away to already this season. We've also had by far the hardest start to a season I can remember if you take league position and context into consideration.
 
JinnerJamie said:
A buffer is definitely needed but I wouldn’t read too much into it as we have to go away to all our rivals bar City and Chelsea.

I’d gladly take a draw vs City and Arsenal right now.
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Everybody still have to play Each other? Why is it a disadvantageous for us?
 
Another thing with Arsenal - they have to play City to complete their half-season and that might be a draw. Our two rescheduled fixtures for the complete 1 are easier than theirs (and by implication City's).

I think around 22-25 games, you can make a decent stab at using a points per game average.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Even though Gakpo hasn't kicked a ball, I am not too worried about his impact on the top four race. Midfield is where they are really struggling, so I would be much more worried, if they had brought in a quality midfielder.

I feel quite a bit better about our chances now than I did after the WC had just ended.
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Same for me. I felt better 10 minutes into the Burnley game when we seemed to be playing what is obviously Ten Hag's system (not dissimilar to the stuff Pep or Postacoglu and probably a few more managers who play their fullbacks in the half-spaces and wingers on the touchline and look to link up short and counter press) more clearly than we were before.

I do think Liverpool's midfield level is currently so very low that it could drastically improve with even one signing. Fabinho is in poor form but has generally been a good player, Thiago looks completely disconnected from the rest of the team and Elliot has played about as poorly as a player with his technical abilities can in midfield. Also Oxlade-Chamberlain has looked handy lately. If they can buy a #8 and Fabinho and just one of Thiago/Elliot/Henderson/Oxlade-Chamberlain can put together 3 good months, they could still get 4th. Seems doable. Fabinho really is the big question mark because they have no alternative there unless they sign a pure #6.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
80 pts being a legitimate challenge means Le Arse will have to be in relegation form for 15+ games out of remaining 22. You see that happening?

Meanwhile, if they were to get to 90 pts, that means 47 out of 66 = a leeway of 5 losses and 2 draws, top 4 pace rather than title winning form, while if we are to get to 90 pts, we need to get 58 from 66, can only lose twice and draw once. Then there’s also the small matter of GD.

It’s nice and all to dream, but cold hard numbers just don’t support that hypothesis, looking at the respective form of the 2 clubs.
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37 points (to take Arsenal to 80 points) would be 10 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats. That is only a drop to top 6-8 standard, not relegation form. I don’t think it will happen but its not outside the scope of a usual Arsenal end of season collapse.
 
Rojofiam said:
It might be enough in this unusual season with the heavily congested fixture list. Arsenal are flying & even though I rate Arteta and his team pretty highly, I don't expect them to reach 95-100 pts, I'd say 90-92 at best. And City are on course for only 85.5 currently. Of course there's a lot of variance even over 38 games and a few unlucky / unjust results could mean a difference of 5-10 points, which is a lot at the end of the day.

I don't see us winning the title barring some cinderella story, but 75-80 pts could legitimately mean a title challenge this season. And I don't think we're finishing below 72-73. We've been extremely difficult to beat ever since ten Hag reverted to a more pragmatic type of football after Brentford, with only Arsenal and City being able to perform well and control the match against us.
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Arsenal only need 32-37 points from the remaining 22 games to reach 75-80. I thought from early on in the season that 86-88 would win the league this season. Arsenal look good for it at the moment, only need 2 PPG to get there.
 
I can see Newcastle falling out. I fancy arsenal today and fancy them quite strongly. Newcastle for me lack the firepower upfront in those tight games although they hardly concede. I've also not been impressed with them against the big teams. Apart from the game vs Chelsea. Both City and us should have beaten them. May come down to those games.

Liverpool for me will still get top 4. They have enough about them (experience etc) even though the defence and central midfield is weak. They're still not far behind with half the season to go. They've also been without Jota and Diaz and they're due back soon. Also been creating big enough chances to eventually get things right.

Arsenal and City are the only certainties. I still don't fancy us too strongly simply because how fragile we would be with a few key injuries upfront. If we keep our first 12 or 13 fit for the rest of the season we will make top 4 and make it easily.
 
Reddevildans said:
I can see Newcastle falling out. I fancy arsenal today and fancy them quite strongly. Newcastle for me lack the firepower upfront in those tight games although they hardly concede. I've also not been impressed with them against the big teams. Apart from the game vs Chelsea. Both City and us should have beaten them. May come down to those games.

Liverpool for me will still get top 4. They have enough about them (experience etc) even though the defence and central midfield is weak. They're still not far behind with half the season to go. They've also been without Jota and Diaz and they're due back soon. Also been creating big enough chances to eventually get things right.

Arsenal and City are the only certainties. I still don't fancy us too strongly simply because how fragile we would be with a few key injuries upfront. If we keep our first 12 or 13 fit for the rest of the season we will make top 4 and make it easily.
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I thought Jota and Diaz were out until end Feb/March?
 
My worry is there seems to be no energy to buy and that is coming from the Glaziers and we will make no signings this window. The papers are just numbing the supporters with made up links to anyone in a position we need. I hope someone up top sees the opportunity here and few blips from arsenal and both United and City are back in the hunt for title. Shame to waste another year over relying on Rashford as we all know Martial is going to treatment room soon.
 
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