Race for top 4 | Finito.

bosnian_red said:
Our league games remaining are:
  • Southampton (h)
  • Brighton (a) postponed
  • Newcastle (a)
  • Brentford (h)
  • Everton (h)
  • Forest (a)
  • Chelsea (h) - will probably be postponed
  • Spurs (a)
  • Villa (h)
  • West ham (a)
  • Wolves (h)
  • Bournemouth (a)
  • Fulham (h)
Its really not a hard run to end the season. Our problem has been away games against top half and mid table sides basically. It's actually really bad but we've only beaten Fulham (last minute winner) away to a top 12 team. Have just 3 more to play, Spurs, Newcastle and brighton. We're at a 71% win rate in all comps and 60% in the league, hell even if we only win 6 or 7 of the next 13 games and win around 50%, just the wins alone would have us at 67 to 70 points. It's unlikely that the other top 4 chasers will pass 70 points, let alone 2 of them pass it while we play so badly that we only end on 70. We have 6/7 piss easy games on paper that should be comfortable wins, and then another 6 that you could argue are tough. We won't lose all of those, so I'd guess it's more likely we get close to 80 points to end the season. Can easily see 25-30 points from those fixtures, which puts us on 74-79 points, which would likely be a comfortable 3rd.
Click to expand...

hopefully you’re right, there seems to be an awful long way to go to start counting chickens to me.

And that’s not having a go of anything that’s gone on so far, I’ve really enjoyed this season and we’ve got great results, there are cracks though and these players have probably left me with a lot of pessimism over the last few years.
 
RuudTom83 said:
The mood can change drastically every week...it can't get any worst than last game!

Plus Liverpool have a nightmare run of games City/Chelsea/Arsenal so they should enjoy this week while they are on a high.
Click to expand...
They will enjoy this week for the next 100 years.
Utd are becoming their Everton. Fecking whipping boys!
 
Zlatan 7 said:
hopefully you’re right, there seems to be an awful long way to go to start counting chickens to me.

And that’s not having a go of anything that’s gone on so far, I’ve really enjoyed this season and we’ve got great results, there are cracks though and these players have probably left me with a lot of pessimism over the last few years.
Click to expand...
There is always a feeling that your own club is a second away from a disaster and that all other clubs are a second away from going on perfect runs of form. In reality... It's not gonna happen. Liverpool are the only ones who have it in them to go on a good enough run to eat up that gap. The others, nah. They'll do really well to improve to a 2ppg pace, which would put Spurs and Newcastle on 69 points at the end of the season. To get 70 we can literally lose every other game and still do it.

It's not over, but barring a disaster, it is comfortable and will probably end up with a 10 point gap.
 
Whether you think we're going to comfortably cruise to top 4 or not is based on whether you assume our last few months of performances are going to fall off a cliff or not.

I'm saying that circumstances are different now, and so should our assumptions.

I've seen many a good team collapse out of nowhere in a top 4 race (technical term: 'doing a Spurs'). It's absolutely possible, given fatigue/schedule/psychological damage, for United to start dropping easy points. Throw in a Case or Rashford injury or two and I'd say we'll be crawling over the line rather than cruising.
 
I think our run in is tricky. Get turned over by Brighton and other results go against us and we may be looking precarious in the top 4. Brentford and Newcastle are both tricky. Liverpool have momentum and will finish top 4. Spurs have nothing but the league so will finish strong. I think we could be in trouble for top 4 if we ain’t careful.
 
We can be shit and still get Top 4. No one ever seems to account for the fact that the likes of Spurs and Newcastle are gash.
 
soapythecat said:
I think our run in is tricky. Get turned over by Brighton and other results go against us and we may be looking precarious in the top 4. Brentford and Newcastle are both tricky. Liverpool have momentum and will finish top 4. Spurs have nothing but the league so will finish strong. I think we could be in trouble for top 4 if we ain’t careful.
Click to expand...
Spurs had nothing but the league last weekend where they lost to wolves. They lost to Sheffield Utd in the cup so now they only have the league left (well they might beat Milan, but anyway). Spurs will be the same Spurs they always are. Probably end on 65-70 points, which would be an improvement from here til the end of the season.
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
I don’t think top 4 is as much as a done deal as people seem to think it is.
Click to expand...
Question, do you expect Newcastle and Spurs to put a competent run of results together while we completely collapse? Use your brain and stop shitting yourself.
 
I think this conversation should be left for Monday 13th March if we bounce back and beat Southampton not easy with their perilous position then we can relax as 52 points from 26 games and 12 to go should mean we get at least 72-76 points however if we lose or draw that game then we should start to get concerned as we still have 6 or 7 difficult games, saving Grace is our home form is very good.
 
Spurs and Newcastle will bottle it.
United and Liverpool will battle out 3rd and 4th, depending on how clinical Liverpools win streak will be. Brighton/Brentford/Fulham with some serious pressure from behind.
 
BluesJr said:
Question, do you expect Newcastle and Spurs to put a competent run of results together while we completely collapse? Use your brain and stop shitting yourself.
Click to expand...
Newcastle are going to stay out of the top 4 for the rest of the season. 6th is likely to be the highest they’ll finish. They don’t score enough, simple as that. Drawn more than they’ve won and now they’re conceding goals more frequently they’ll likely to continue a downward trend.
 
Can you imagine if Liverpool finish 5th but then city get booted out of Europe so Liverpool get in anyway
 
If Spurs finish outside top 4 then we will much easier get Kane.
But Liverpool missing top 4 will hurt them a lot.

I can't decide ffs
 
Andycoleno9 said:
If Spurs finish outside top 4 then we will much easier get Kane.
But Liverpool missing top 4 will hurt them a lot.

I can't decide ffs
Click to expand...
If Liverpool Owners are ready to spend the money in Summer I don't think them missing out on top 4 would matter much they would most likely get most of their targets .
 
With the liverpool loss today its gives me a second reason to want to see Brighton win today.

I think our champions league place is all but secure now as well with liverpool reverting back to their old selves this season and the negativity and unrest around spurs growing
 
10 points clear of Liverpool if we beat Southampton tomorrow.

Just winning our games against the bottom half teams should be enough to get us over the line, the rest of the contenders are poor.
 
Interesting. We've gone from "if united are in the title race, we're in the race to third" to "shit, Spurs and Chelsea can win games too".

17 goals against united and Bournemouth has yielded 6 points. What a W
 
bosnian_red said:
There is always a feeling that your own club is a second away from a disaster and that all other clubs are a second away from going on perfect runs of form. In reality... It's not gonna happen. Liverpool are the only ones who have it in them to go on a good enough run to eat up that gap. The others, nah. They'll do really well to improve to a 2ppg pace, which would put Spurs and Newcastle on 69 points at the end of the season. To get 70 we can literally lose every other game and still do it.

It's not over, but barring a disaster, it is comfortable and will probably end up with a 10 point gap.
Click to expand...
I doubt Liverpool can get to 70 points. They had the week off and lost to the bottom club.
 
Tomorrow is important game for us as we don't play in PL again until 2nd April while most of other teams will still play 1-2 more games so getting 3 points vs Saints will be huge. They haven't been bad lately either, beating Chelsea at Bridge and Leicester last week + are fighting to avoid relegation so can't allow to underestimate them.
 
A win tomorrow would really go a long way to sealing our top 4 spot. With both Brighton and Liverpool dropping points, it's only Spurs that are close and Newcastle hopefully continue to drift down.
 
It's not even going to be a contest. The other teams competing for top 4 are absolute gash.
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
I don’t think top 4 is as much as a done deal as people seem to think it is.
Click to expand...
Let’s hope for a top 6 finish .

Look at the teams around us we go 10 clear of Liverpool today if we win . Their next 3 games are Chelsea City and Arsenal . Spurs will always be Spurs and Newcastle are dropping a lot of points lately.
 
Red00012 said:
Let’s hope for a top 6 finish .

Look at the teams around us we go 10 clear of Liverpool today if we win . Their next 3 games are Chelsea City and Arsenal . Spurs will always be Spurs and Newcastle are dropping a lot of points lately.
Click to expand...
I hadn't expected Bournemouth to beat Liverpool when I wrote that to be fair. If we beat Southampton I think it’s looking very good again.
 
If Chelsea beat Liverpool, they will only be 2 points behind. So Chelsea surely have to be in the race.
 
We need to win today and we should be in a much comfortable position.

We have already played pool, Arsenal and Man City while pool still needs to play them both and also Chelsea away.

The only tough match we have away is spurs (not counting Newcastle).

Pool has needs to go to city and Chelsea and play Spurs and Arsenal at home.

You can say at this stage, Spurs are most likely to finish top 4 given pool run in but we need to make sure we win our match today to have a comfortable lead.

I don’t think Chelsea or Newcastle will come top 4.
 
Josh 76 said:
If Chelsea beat Liverpool, they will only be 2 points behind. So Chelsea surely have to be in the race.
Click to expand...
They need far too many points IMO.

The team that finishes 4th this season will be around that 70 point mark I reckon.

It's easy to forget that the way to be successful is winning football matches. Only United and Spurs have won 15+ (bar the top two) which shows a consistency of being able to get over the line. I think Liverpool can do it despite having only 12 wins so far (but have a game in hand), but they'd need to score goals on a more regular basis instead of hammering some teams and then firing blanks against the likes of Palace and Bournemouth...

Most seasons you need to be close to that 50% win rate to get into the top four (19 wins in a season). Chelsea has 10 wins in 26. 12 games to go. If they're going to get in that mix they need 9-10 wins and probably going undefeated in those 12 matches. Even 9 wins and 3 draws would net them 67 points which might not even be enough.

Spurs has 11 games to go. A few tough ones but overall I think they have enough good fixtures to get 5-6 wins and a few draws. They will lose at least 2 I'm sure, but I fancy near enough every team in the top half to lose 2 more anyway. 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses would be an extremely average and 'typical Spurs' end to the season but would still net them 67 points. They are far enough ahead of Chelsea the even if there is resurgence, Spurs finish above Chelsea by default. Simply because they have won the joint third most games so far.

Liverpool has to get points from the upcoming games after that loss to Bournemouth, but as long as they stay in touching distance with Spurs then they'll be well in it. The 6 pointer against Spurs is actually relevant here IMO. If Liverpool beat Spurs to go above them, they'll stay there.

Newcastle couldn't score in a brothel. Unless they suddenly resolve that on a consistent basis, they can forget about it.

One of the teams in the top half will go on a run I'm sure, but I think in a few weeks it will have settled down. Saying teams like Chelsea, Brentford, Brighton and Fulham are in the race is probably the equivalent of people saying United were in a title race... They would have to be too close to perfect for a long run of games to really be candidates.
 
Josh 76 said:
If Chelsea beat Liverpool, they will only be 2 points behind. So Chelsea surely have to be in the race.
Click to expand...
We have left ourselves too much to do, realistically and we don’t deserve it. We only have an outside shot because Newcastle like us have a problem scoring and Liverpool/Spurs are shite. We would need them all to continue to be shite until the end of the season and continue our winning streak. I don’t see it.
 
a big plus for Spurs is the fact all their competitors bar Newcastle have to play the top two twice and they have a little points advantage on top of that and even Newcastle still have to play Arsenal.
 
You have to be fecking stupid to think top 4 is a sure deal for us. This team has some major issues with mentality. Let's see the way they react to our last two poor results/performances.
 
PoTMS said:
You have to be fecking stupid to think top 4 is a sure deal.
Click to expand...
8 clear of 5th.
It’s a sure deal if you check out literally every other top 4 contender results from this week bar Spurs? Us not winning doesn’t give them more points
 
We will be lucky to get 4 points out the next 9 without Casemiro. We are in a dogfight because we have no cover for him at all.
 
PoTMS said:
You have to be fecking stupid to think top 4 is a sure deal for us. This team has some major issues with mentality. Let's see the way they react to our last two poor results/performances.
Click to expand...
They showed enough mentality today.
 
PoTMS said:
You have to be fecking stupid to think top 4 is a sure deal for us. This team has some major issues with mentality. Let's see the way they react to our last two poor results/performances.
Click to expand...
How is that result to do with mentality?
 
You have to account for how average the other teams are. They'll drop points every other week.
 
Could well be going into the international break behind Spurs. At least they beat City though, that was a great result for us apparently.

Lets just hope Newcastle don't win today. Away there next and we know how bad our form is against the top half.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.