As I said, they've been pretty much inseparable except Stage 11, where UAE fecked up - and whether it was bad tactics, hubris or just bad planning, Pog just blew up. Personally I think he gave Roglic too much respect and should have just covered Vingegaard, but hindsight is always 20-20.
But, Jumbo have a super team whereas UAE has had rotten luck - COVID in the early stages, Soler illness, Majka hurting his quadricep after snapping the chain - you can't make it up.
Meanwhile V has had Wout tearing it up in the green jersey, Roglic gave him a huge help on stage 11, and the rest of the team (Seb Kuss, Laporte, Kruijswik) have been nothing but solid.
I feel the better team will win, but the best rider won't - which is fine, c'est la vie.