I think it's entirely reasonable to say that the first two games of the season were a bizarre fluke that doesn't really represent the level of this team. If we replayed those games next week, we would most likely take at least four and possibly all six points from them. While things aren't perfect yet, we've come a long way since then. We've won five of the last six league games, and although it was ugly to lose to City in that manner, it's not as though losing to them is a staggering disappointment. We beat Arsenal 3-1, and they've had a brilliant season thus far, so that's every bit as positive as the loss to City was negative. There's plenty of reasons to be optimistic. If not for the banana peel in the beginning, we could very well have been comfortably in the top four by now with six or seven wins out of eight.
They haven't all been the most convincing wins, but that's to be expected with the situation we're in: a new manager having to glue a shattered squad back together, players having to claw their way back into form, and multiple new signings in key positions. If we can do this well under these circumstances, optimism is definitely warranted. If ETH can wring just 10% more out of this team, we're looking at a very feasible top four finish, as long there's no major implosion throughout the season. Chelsea are hardly looking comfortable so far, and it's practically the norm for Tottenham to fall apart in the winter.
If any of the teams behind us should stay the distance and overtake us over the course of the season, that would be a big surprise--Brighton and Newcastle have done well so far, but it'll be hugely unexpected if they kept it up until the end. It's more likely that one of the teams above us will stumble. Liverpool are having an absolute disaster of a season, and while they can't be written off definitively just yet, there are no signs whatsoever of them recovering in time to have a realistic chance of catching up. As such, I think we're one of the most likely candidates for a 4th place finish.