It would make one of the most expensive 29 year old signings in football history. Not too far off of Zidane. Hardly a joke.
Ollie Watkins | Arsenal bid c. £60m
- Thread starter Berbaclass
- Start date
I wonder why they're going for Watkins of all players.
Good player that it is Prem proven and everything but if I'm signing a 29 year old striker for the money they;d have to pay I'd literally want someone that could come in and be the difference maker for winning a league (a bit like us with RVP). Is he really that final piece of the jigsaw? I don't think so.
I'm not convinced he'd be as good in a team having to play against a low block every week anyway.
Good player that it is Prem proven and everything but if I'm signing a 29 year old striker for the money they;d have to pay I'd literally want someone that could come in and be the difference maker for winning a league (a bit like us with RVP). Is he really that final piece of the jigsaw? I don't think so.
I'm not convinced he'd be as good in a team having to play against a low block every week anyway.
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Come on Arsenal. Give us half of that for Rashford!
Rashford isn't as good for his overall game.
Which was over 20 years ago and therefore not comparable.
yeah I agree, I don't think Arsenal want Rashford and think they'd be crazy to. My point was merely to emphasise how shite Rashford is right now. I genuinely think if anyone offered no transfer fee and paid his wages we'd take the deal.
Have to take into account his age and pedigree, he’s 29 with an average of about 15 prem goals a season.
Toney (who obviously had baggage) is a similar comp, he went for £40 million. Strikers like Watkins can fall off a cliff in their 30’s, what did Kane go for £80 odd million? He ain’t getting near that.
Villa, we have a potent striker in our ranks to sell at half the price. Do it, you know you won’t regret it 
Of course it’s comparable… they’re both 29 years old and I’m comparing them. There you go - comparable.
Do you not think the fact that no one has spent more on a 29 year in over 20 years indicates that maybe, just maybe, that sort offer isn’t a joke?
I’d love them to sign him. He’s not that good at all, quite slow, so for 60 million he’d be an expensive flop.
Zidane went for €78m in 2001 which is probably the equivalent of €200-300m at the moment given inflation and the transfer climate back then compared to how it is now. Joke of a comparison.
Zidane was almost double of what the world-record transfer fee was back then
Yep, I’m totally aware of how inflation works, thanks.Zidane went for €78m in 2001 which is probably the equivalent of €200-300m at the moment given inflation and the transfer climate back then compared to how it is now. Joke of a comparison.
Zidane was almost double of what the world-record transfer fee was back then
Seeing as transfers fees have, according to your estimations, gone up by 300-400% since then, you would expect the record fee for a 29 year to have been broken on multiple occasions in the two decades, would you not? But it hasn’t.
Could it be because maybe, just maybe, dropping £60m on a 29 year old isn’t a joke? And is, in fact, a very large investment that is guaranteed not to have a financial return?
The fact that most money paid for a 29 year old was 20 years ago despite 400% transfer inflation since is precisely my point.
It just doesn't really make sense to compare transfers from 20 years ago because dynamics of football and the transfer window have completely shifted.
It totally makes sense to compare for those exact reasons. With all of the changes in the transfer market over the last two decades, one thing that has remained constant is that virtually no players nearing or in their 30s are transferred for significant sums.
A variable among variables is not that significant. Neither are constants among constants. But a data point that remains constant among multiple variables usually is usually an indicator from which you can draw conclusions.
I wouldn’t have thought that saying so would be all that controversial.
Why are so many posts focusing on his age? 29 years old isn’t too old and if it helps Arsenal fix a problem, it’s good for them.
Plus it will prevent them from getting someone better in the summer, so they can always be just short of winning the titles, we will enjoy some schadenfreude.
Plus it will prevent them from getting someone better in the summer, so they can always be just short of winning the titles, we will enjoy some schadenfreude.
Well if we are being pedantic about it sure, but there are players older than 29 who've been sold for more money which makes it completely invalid IMO. I just don't see how a transfer nearly 25 years ago is really of any relevance.
Something like the Kane deal would be a much more useful barometer. Much better player but was actually 30 when he went to Bayern, went for £25m more than Arsenal bid and only had a year left on his contract whereas Watkins is tied-down for longer. And it's in the middle of a season in which Villa are competing on multiple fronts still.
Someone explain inflation to arsenal fans.
I'm with you in that the £60m offer is fair and not a joke at all, but the comparison to 2001 Zidane is ridiculous as others have already pointed out as well.
I stand by my initial comment that Villa have no incentive whatsoever to accept, even £80m wouldn't be entertaining to them imo. They'd be left without a striker and basically give up on a promising season for no reason.
Yep. Ronaldo went for significantly more at an older age. There you go, I picked out an example of your point for you. It’s irrelevant to my point, though.
Zidane happened to be 29 as Watkins is. But he could have been 30 and logic would be exactly the same, so there’s no pedantry here.
Transfer fees for players in their early and mid 20’s have quadrupled in the last 20 years. Transfers fees for players in their late 20s and 30s have pretty much remained flat. Why? Because players bought in their 20s are with one eye residual value. Players bought in or nearing their 30s are not. Therefore, a £60m bid for a 29 year old isn’t a joke. Arsenal’s second bid will be the most Villa can hope to make from Watkins in a financial sense by quite a distance.
Do Arsenal really think that Duran and Watkins are going to be sold this window?
I'm not sure what the thinking is here
I'm not sure what the thinking is here
Zidane is not the benchmark to use, one of the greatest footballers ever, the goal against Leverkusen in champions league final was worth it alone.
If you take Kane as a barometer, then by your own admission Kane is the better player, who has had much more of a track record scoring 20+ goals over multiple seasons, is the countries captain and leading number 9, and even from a non playing perspective has a much higher profile than Watkins.
So taking that into account, and taking into account Villa might have ongoing PSR issues, im not sure an opening offer of £60M is that insulting, especially when you have people debating on here if they would even offer that?
You aren't getting his point. He is saying, despite inflation, there are only a handful of players 29+ who has went for over £60M. Mentioning Zidane has just muddied the water of his actual point.
Agreed. Although, the fact that the record transfer for a 29 year old was set 24 years ago and hasn't been broken since actually was my point. So it would have been odd to omit the name of the player involved. But I would have done so had I known it would have cause so much clutching of pearls to mention Watkins and Zidane in the same sentence.
I really didn't think the logic was all that difficult to follow, though.
Didn't Utd spend 70m on Casemiro?
I don't think it's insulting, I never personally said I did was just countering points about using various irrelevant players as barometers.
But I also think Villa would be pretty foolish to sell him and Duran in the middle of an important season so they should probably demand well above is market value.
Could be possible if Villa get Rashy to replace one of them
Yep. £60+10m. I think the guaranteed part is a little less than Zidane's. I got the info from this Transfermarkt page.
I honestly didn't think it would cause much of a fuss, but there you go.
pretend you’re taking a corner. you look up and see your goon defenders grappling and wrestling people to the ground around the goalkeeper. one of your midfielders has one of the opposition i tears with a vicious chinese burn. the ref looks glances at the opposition captain apologetically and says “what are they like!?” before rolling his eyes and succumbing to the temptation to peel back the cling film on his upper arm and check on the wellbeing of his latest, freshly-inked gunners tattoo.
you draw your foot back and swing with all your might. the ball travels hard and flat. it’s heading slap bang towards the middle of the goal. your strikers have contained the goalkeeper, he is prostrate on the floor, his arms and legs being pinned to the turf. arteta is in the mixer, windmilling his arms around and striking anyone who dares to get close enough to header the ball away. gabriel is halfway up a ladder, whilst rice moves it around to match the ball’s trajectory. var’s finger is hovering over the button, itching to give a penalty. but it is not needed, the ball strikes the now passed out goalkeeper as saka extinguishes the last of his breath with a choke hold to the neck. you go 1-0 up. the linesman climbs on to your back as you both salute your gurning fans, before toppling over in their drool.
but what’s this? 20 years later, your kicks, although the same power, now no longer reach the penalty box. your defenders are rampaging as usual, your manager is playing a banjo and demanding the goalkeeper squeals like a piggy, but all to no avail. your corners have suffered the effects of inflation.
He was aged 30. I might have missed 1 or 2 out, but from what I can see, record transfers for players age 29+ above £60M are.....
1. Ronaldo
2. Kane
3. Neymar
4. Zidane
5. Casemiro
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So true. Wtf have they been waiting for? Unless Watkins wasn’t first choice?
You didn't, but others certainly did.
However, at the same time, I also agree that it would be weird for Villa to accept it.
Both can be true, that the bid was a reasonable opening bid for someone of his age and profile from a buying clubs perspective, yet not enough for the selling club to even consider mid way through a season after selling their other main forward.
It’s a decent offer from Arsenal given the players age, but just stupid timing. They’re hardly going to sell him now, and there’s not much time left for the player to agitate for the move.
Aside from how late it is in the window and Duran likely to be leaving, no doubt that Brentford will also have a healthy sell-on fee so for Villa that bid is probably worth closer to £50m.
Zidane's fee itself wasn't broken for a record 8 years, and that's including players who weren't just 29! By using his age, 29, you hit on a huge outlier and narrowly confined the scope of your argument.
Also, it's really rare that the best players get sold at around that age, I don't know if that's even ever happened since? If it's so rare, then of course the record hasn't been broken! If Messi, Ronaldo, Et Al would have been sold at 29 years old, do you really think they wouldn't have gone for well over £50mil? Because that's effectively what you're arguing: that players of Zidane's calibre at 29 weren't valued at more than £50mil just because they didn't get sold around that age.
The record hasn't been broken because it's so rare top players move at that age, not because they aren't worth the price.
I think there's often a big difference in valuation between the buying and selling club at that age. The best players are usually impossible to replace for the selling club, but the buying club has reservations about their potentially close decline. So the deals don't get done.
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I think he'd be an obvious upgrade on Havertz but... I also think there's a case for saying Arsenal should put their resources elsewhere rather than look for this clinical CF that might not exist in today's market.
A lot were calling for this in the summer but Arsenal scored 91 league goals last season, with Havertz posting 13 + 7 numbers. Would they be better positioned to try and find a more prolific goalscoring threat off the left like a Lookman or Barcola instead? Their would seem to be more obvious, gettable targets in that position. I have to imagine if they do end up signing Zubimendi then Odegaard's role will change a bit as well and he'll be operating a bit further up the pitch, he got 15 league goals in the 22/23 season so he's capable of hitting double digits if used correctly.
I don't know, obviously getting a 20-25 goal a season striker seems the most obvious solution but it seems like they'll just be forcing it. If they have the likes of Saka, a new LW, Havertz, Odegaard all hitting double digits combined with the set piece threat of their CB's I feel like they'll be fine for the most part.
A lot were calling for this in the summer but Arsenal scored 91 league goals last season, with Havertz posting 13 + 7 numbers. Would they be better positioned to try and find a more prolific goalscoring threat off the left like a Lookman or Barcola instead? Their would seem to be more obvious, gettable targets in that position. I have to imagine if they do end up signing Zubimendi then Odegaard's role will change a bit as well and he'll be operating a bit further up the pitch, he got 15 league goals in the 22/23 season so he's capable of hitting double digits if used correctly.
I don't know, obviously getting a 20-25 goal a season striker seems the most obvious solution but it seems like they'll just be forcing it. If they have the likes of Saka, a new LW, Havertz, Odegaard all hitting double digits combined with the set piece threat of their CB's I feel like they'll be fine for the most part.
That's not what I'm arguing at all. There's no need to interpret what I'm "effectively" saying, just read what I'm actually saying.
Great players move all throughout their careers. They just don't move at particularly high prices in nearing or in their 30s because their financial value trends sharply towards zero, even if they're still contributing on the pitch.
There is no example I can think of of a player of world record fee calibre that has moved at 29 or even 30. Other than Zidane. So of course that very specific record hasn't been broken.
It ain't a joke fee though I agree. It's a fee Villa probably won't wanna consider though.
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