I wasn’t actually responding to any of your posts today, I’ve learned enough about your character to know better than to try and discuss with you, so please give it a break.
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NBA 2022-2023
- Thread starter charlton66
- Start date
Issues here. Wrong on the bolded part. The people that move the lines are mostly traders.
To be in this scenario, the 8th seeds has beaten the 1st seed and either the 4th/5th seed in those 10 occasions. So they would of proven themselves. I'm taking 1, if not more, out of 10.
14% is obscene for what? 1-6 days work. For a sure thing. Exceptional. Couldn't get that in a savings account. (Disclaimer; Don't bet, I'm just saying.)
Clowns make an easy living? The more you know eh
I can actually get close to that in some savings accounts here these days, we have 16% annual inflation.
I don’t think it’s a sure thing BTW, I have not actually said or suggested that and I can definitely see a world in which Celtics win the series. There is no such thing as a sure thing in sports and this is definitely not that close to being one.
I just think in this particular case it seems quite unlikely due to the way both these teams have performed so far in the playoffs, not just their records but the pattern of their performances. Heat seem to have a super hot night almost every other game, Celtics seem to suck in every other game, the timing of all this would need to be absolutely perfect for Celtics to win it. But there will be eventually team that is 3-0 down that will come back and win the series. For example, the way Nuggets have played so far if they are 3-0 down to Heat/Celtics in the Finals I’m not writing them off because they have it in them to play very very well 4 times in a row. I’m not sure Celtics do.
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You'd have to be getting close to 1000% interest savings account to get close!
And if you don't think it's close, then you can't think the odds aren't too bad then since they reflect not that close, but a distinct possibility that's not incredibly out of the question?
And if you don't think it's close, then you can't think the odds aren't too bad then since they reflect not that close, but a distinct possibility that's not incredibly out of the question?
Yeah of course there is difference of 5 days vs 365, this was more meant to point out how ridiculous those saving accounts have got here as a fun fact rather than an actual point to the discussion.
Personally I’d probably have the average 2 seed vs 8 seed in current position at around that (1 in 3 chance of overturning the series from 3-1 down) but in this particular case I think there’s misconception about the gulf in quality between the two teams, or the home court advantage that Celtics have.
Eg when Bucks were in this position in round 1 I actually still had them as quite possible to come back and win the series. Don’t know what the actual odds were at the time, probably even lower than Celtics now.
I don’t actually have any significant issue with odds here, that one poster for some reason invented me saying something about 10% or less and then tried to ridicule the point I never made. I only said I find it very unlikely for the reasons I stated in the other post.
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That was actually easy to check, Bucks were only between +110 and +125 to progress when 3-1 down. Even shorter than I imagined.
Boston coming back. I am telling ya. I didn't put money on it but I should have.
It's all lining up beautifully for Denver
Miami.
How many turnover was that?
How many turnover was that?
Jimmy has to step up in one of the next two, blowing a 3-0 lead for the first time ever will not be great for his reputation. It’s probably close to a 50/50 now (and 90/10 or thereabouts ESPN).
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16. They didn’t even have the worst shooting night.Miami.
How many turnover was that?
Thats bad. Can be worse still.
Are Boston going to win this series?
That was the Celtics at their best (which is the reason why some people had them as favorites to win it all). Everyone firing on offense with suffocating defense although they did get away with a murder sometimes on Bam which won't be allowed in game 6. Not really sure why they have to get to elimination game every time for their defense to start playing at full speed, but they are now 4-0 when facing elimination allowing opponents 92,5 points on average which is a stark contrast compared to almost all other games in these playoffs.
Am happy mostly because it prolonged the series as otherwise it would be some time untill the finals. And well, this is now big game 6 in Miami. As for 0-150 record am sure most people are just curious to see which team can and finally will overcome the deficit. It is just that, the fact that never happened which is the most interesting thing about it and the team that finally does it will have that attached to themselves forever. No need for lectures in betting odds and risk management acting smug about it.
On a side note, Tyler Herro looks absolutely ridiculous in that outfit. Straight from the mental institution.
Am happy mostly because it prolonged the series as otherwise it would be some time untill the finals. And well, this is now big game 6 in Miami. As for 0-150 record am sure most people are just curious to see which team can and finally will overcome the deficit. It is just that, the fact that never happened which is the most interesting thing about it and the team that finally does it will have that attached to themselves forever. No need for lectures in betting odds and risk management acting smug about it.
On a side note, Tyler Herro looks absolutely ridiculous in that outfit. Straight from the mental institution.
Are Boston going to win this series?
Think the Heat will close it out at home. But it should be a brutal game (in a good way).
Yeah and I don't think anyone thought Celtics likelihood of overturning 3-0 was similar to majority of those 150 teams that lost. It was always much higher than for at least 90% of them (would need to see the actual list of series that were 3-0 in the last decade but vast majority will be poor lower seeds vs strong teams at the top, it will very rarely be a series host). Someone will eventually overturn 3-0 and it's most likely going to be a high seed that went down in the series due to bad underperformance in the opening games. It's going to be a big deal, it's literally never happened during NBA's history.
I was mostly mocking ESPN odds which were 3% for Heat at the beginning of series, and then over 30% for Celtics when 3-0 down (not 3-1), both of which were obviously utterly ridiculous and had zero to do with actual probability.
Agree with everything, especially with those ridiculous odds on the Heat. They do thrive in being an underdog and feed from the narrative imo, but in reality this is pretty much the same team that was one shot away from reaching the finals last season as the 1st seed already eliminating the Bucks and the Knicks. On the other hand and counting the last season, this is now actually 3rd game in a row that the Celtics won when they could have been eliminated by the Heat which is already impressive. Injuries that are piling in for the Heat (Herro, Oladipo and now even Vincent) surely don't help.
As for the actual list, found it yesterday although I didn't really dive into it. But, at first glance and as expected, it is mostly favorites that got to that lead in the first place.
https://www.landofbasketball.com/statistics/playoff_series_3_0_won.htm
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Good list. I have only looked at the last 7 years as I have followed NBA closer during this time + have better memory of most recent encounters/teams + the game itself has changed considerably with 3-point shooting & all, there are 30 series there, out of which I'd have maybe given any chance whatsoever to:
- Blazers v Pelicans in 2018, though that would have been really miniscule considering how thoroughly outplayed they were in Game 3 and how badly outmatched they were in the paint (+ defended on perimeter)
- Sixers v Celtics in 2018, it was a surprise at the time that Celtics even got to 3-0 as Sixers entered the series as slight favorites from what I recall
- Bucks v Heat in 2020, as they entered the bubble as favorites and those games were weird
- Lakers v Nuggets this year, again this would be really, really tiny
The others 26 series, most of them you wouldn't have even given the other team much of a chance at 0-0 let alone 3-0 down.
And even on that list itself, it's maybe only Bucks in 2020 and Sixers v Celtics in 2018 that I'd have had as something that wouldn't utterly fill me with disbelief at what just happened. Bucks being the only one remotely close to Celtics position now, and they did not have homecourt advantage for any of the games at the time as it was the bubble.
Can't recall for some reason so much about Sixers v Celtics in 2018 tbh, but the Bucks in 2020 definitely stand out. Still, as you say, it was a bubble with no homecourt advantage, but that particular comeback wouldn't shock me.... As for everything else, I had somewhat feeling that the Lakers have tiny chance against the Nuggets. But, then you count in LeBron at the age of 38 and the rest of that team having to win 2 games at a high altitude in Denver (with series being played every 2 games) and you realize it would be pretty much a miracle, especially with the way the Nuggets were playing.
The others 26 series, most of them you wouldn't have even given the other team much of a chance at 0-0 let alone 3-0 down.
The only one that I have as a surprise sweep is the Celtics vs the Nets in 2022 (think both Irving and Durant were healthy with all games being relatively close). But the rest of them, very true!
Forgot about that one! Many had Nets as favorites going into the series I remember (even had some discussions on here). It's so easy to forget that Nets had Durant and Kyrie literally 5 minutes ago.
Nah, if/when it happens, it will most likely come down to injuries
Heat will close this now at home. Unless Butler gets injured
overturning 3-0 has it done before ?
Heat fans today.
It's really a stressful position to be in. What you absolutely do not want is to become the first team ever to botch a 3-0 lead, especially in Conference Finals. On top of that you have Jimmy who has a reputation of a top class playoff performer, who did so well against Bucks and built sort of a legend during this run, now not performing in the last two games, and if they were to lose it's probably going to be because he couldn't lift them in games 6 and 7. What has been a beautiful story for the franchise could soon become a bit of a disaster.
If the Celtics manage to score 16+ threes for four games in a row in the conference finals and with their backs against the wall, well... fair fecks to them. If that doesn't happen, Spoelstra will find a way to win 1/2 remaining games and get the Heat throught to the Finals.
At 3-2, the 0-3 or 1-3 things do not count anymore: two (+ two) halves to go. And, yes, game 6 at home is the best chance the Heat could ask for, irrelevant of what happened before… if anything, because the Celts have in them one more bad half before this series ends, and Butler has in him one more swinging half a la Curry in the Finals last year.
While I prefer Heat as a team, Celtics would I believe be more of a threat to Nuggets which would make for better finals. I would still have Nuggets as favorites easily (in before the gamblers start to analyze my life because odds state otherwise or whatever) but while I can see Celtics pushing this to 7 or even winning, I have difficulty seeing Heat do the same. Nuggets could run away with it.
Right on the clock, Lebron's excuse finally hit the news (torn tendon)
This is the sort of thing we get to hear every time he loses. However, on the off chance he becomes a Warrior I'll then believe every word he says.
IF YOU THINK THIS WHY DON’T YOU BET MONEY
Did I do it right
PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR WHORE MOUTH IS
I might went overboard a bit
Tatum just completely dominating Jimmy at the moment.
Miamis stars need to step up big time.
Miamis stars need to step up big time.
I think Miami will be much better in 2nd half and they will sadly win. Celtics are not hitting any 3 points!
Why are they playing Lowry ? He's been atrocious
What an awful performance by Butler when it mattered
Celtics should have put this game out of reach by now. 3pt shooting has been terrible and Tatumhas had a poor start to the 2nd half.
Hopefully we get over the line and force that game 7. Be nice to prove we can win a game whilst shooting so poorly from 3 as well.
Hopefully we get over the line and force that game 7. Be nice to prove we can win a game whilst shooting so poorly from 3 as well.