Middle East Politics

All the "Rojava" territory except the light green and red areas
800px-De_facto_cantons_of_Rojava.png
Syria’s biggest ethnic group by far are Sunni Arabs, and pretty much all non Kurdish cities except for Latakia are predominantly Sunni Arab.

There’s also the fact that 40% of the SDF is composed of Syrian Arabs and Assyrian. To simply label this as a Kurdish annexation of Arab territory is lazy Turkish propaganda. Also, a substantial proportion of these territories were wrestled from ISIS while the Qatari/Turkish/US-backed FSA and the Regime were too busy fighting each other.
 
Syria’s biggest ethnic group by far are Sunni Arabs, and pretty much all non Kurdish cities except for Latakia are predominantly Sunni Arab.

There’s also the fact that 40% of the SDF is composed of Syrian Arabs and Assyrian. To simply label this as a Kurdish annexation of Arab territory is lazy Turkish propaganda. Also, a substantial proportion of these territories were wrestled from ISIS while the Qatari/Turkish/US-backed FSA and the Regime were too busy fighting each other.

I'm talking about demographics of "Rojava". In 2010, Kurds were a minority in today defacto "Rojava", and Kurds themselves wouldn't dispute this fact. You clearly don't have a clue on the matter.
 
I'm talking about demographics of "Rojava". In 2010, Kurds were a minority in today defacto "Rojava", and Kurds themselves wouldn't dispute this fact. You clearly don't have a clue on the matter.

What are you on about? You've casually insinuated that regions such as Al Hasakah are 'Arab Sunni ' territories. Your claim that Kurds made up 10% of the population in Rojava is also dubious at best - what's your source for that?
 
What are you on about? You've casually insinuated that regions such as Al Hasakah are 'Arab Sunni ' territories. Your claim that Kurds made up 10% of the population in Rojava is also dubious at best - what's your source for that?

What are you on about? I made no 10% claim in my comments!

Kurds have no presence whatsoever in Deir Azzour governorate and they are a small minority in Raqqa governorate. They constitute the majority in only one Syrian governorate; Hasakah. And even in Hasakah itself, it was probably 60% Kurds, 20-30% Sunni Arabs and 10-20% Assyrians (and other Christians) before the war.
Kurds were a minority in the defacto "Rojava" region. These are hard facts that Kurds wouldn't dispute. The debate has never been about the demographics of the region, it's always been about whether Kurdish forces have committed ethnic cleansing against Arabs.
 
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This guy has solid enough contacts in the Syrian regime. Major news/thread:



Seems he got it right:



Assad’s rehabilitation and re-integration into Arab politics is well underway:



 
More...



Their only real option now is to cut a deal with Assad, surrendering territory back to the government in return for some form of semi-autonomy.

It has begun:

 
Not the first time they’ve been let down by the Yanks, and won’t be the last either.

Their only real option now is to cut a deal with Assad, surrendering territory back to the government in return for some form of semi-autonomy.

It has begun:



Do you guys think Assad will show any lenience towards the Kurds and give them some form of semi-autonomy?
 
Do you guys think Assad will show any lenience towards the Kurds and give them some form of semi-autonomy?

I’d say he’d much prefer not to, sharing power is not in his or his party’s nature, and the Ba’th’s stated position all along has been an uncompromising insistence that the north-east must return to central rule. But it’s not all down to him as he’s still so heavily dependent on the Russians. They might calculate that it’s in Moscow’s best interest to encourage a negotiated settlement - it seems certain that preparations and talks have been going on behind the scenes for several months.
 
@Kasper, one other thing to consider - in 1998 Turkey almost went to war with Syria over Hafiz’s support for the PKK. With Turkey and Turkish-backed militias now occupying large swathes of northern Syria, Bashar might conceivably consider it useful to keep the PKK/YPG alive and active along the border as a means of keeping pressure on Ankara.
 
@2cents what is the substantial difference between the bortherhood and SA/UAE regarding Islam? (if already discussed you must know too) Or is this purely geopolitics?
 
@2cents what is the substantial difference between the bortherhood and SA/UAE regarding Islam? (if already discussed you must know too) Or is this purely geopolitics?

The Brotherhood are Islamists, their first priority/agenda is essentially political, they aim to shape politics in the various Muslim countries along ostensibly Islamic lines, strengthen pan-Islamic bonds worldwide, and ultimately restore the caliphate - they aim to do this by overthrowing the secular/non-Islamic (as they see it) regimes, including the Saudis. In theory, they’re not particularly concerned with doctrine or sectarianism.

On the other hand the Wahhabi ulama of Saudi Arabia prioritize shaping society along their particularist doctrinal and sectarian lines, but have no particular political agenda to speak of - they leave that to their Saudi overlords whose basic political priority is survival. Since the Brotherhood aim to overthrow the regimes, the Saudis are vehemently opposed to them and utilize their Wahhabi doctrine to undermine the Islamist agenda.

However, the Brotherhood and Saudis were allied during the 60s and 70s, as at that time they shared a greater common enemy in the secular Arab Nationalism represented by Jamal abd al-Nasir of Egypt. Many Egyptian Brotherhood activists fled Egypt at this time and found refuge in SA. There, the Brotherhood’s radical political agenda became fused with the doctrinal and sectarian extremism of the Wahhabis, and the result was the emergence of the salafi-jihadis which have plagued us ever since.
 
The Brotherhood are Islamists, their first priority/agenda is essentially political, they aim to shape politics in the various Muslim countries along ostensibly Islamic lines, strengthen pan-Islamic bonds worldwide, and ultimately restore the caliphate - they aim to do this by overthrowing the secular/non-Islamic (as they see it) regimes, including the Saudis. In theory, they’re not particularly concerned with doctrine or sectarianism.

On the other hand the Wahhabi ulama of Saudi Arabia prioritize shaping society along their particularist doctrinal and sectarian lines, but have no particular political agenda to speak of - they leave that to their Saudi overlords whose basic political priority is survival. Since the Brotherhood aim to overthrow the regimes, the Saudis are vehemently opposed to them and utilize their Wahhabi doctrine to undermine the Islamist agenda.

However, the Brotherhood and Saudis were allied during the 60s and 70s, as at that time they shared a greater common enemy in the secular Arab Nationalism represented by Jamal abd al-Nasir of Egypt. Many Egyptian Brotherhood activists fled Egypt at this time and found refuge in SA. There, the Brotherhood’s radical political agenda became fused with the doctrinal and sectarian extremism of the Wahhabis, and the result was the emergence of the jihadis which have plagued us ever since.

What downside is there for the Saudis to not want to join the brotherhood too? Since it seemingly doesnt conflict with their religious alliance due to being primarily political they could avoid the threat by already declaring to be that sort of govt.

thanks a lot, appreciate it
 
What downside is there for the Saudis to not want to join the brotherhood too? Since it seemingly doesnt conflict with their religious alliance due to being primarily political they could avoid the threat by already declaring to be that sort of govt.

That is basically what the Qatari regime is doing these days. For the Saudis, apart from the personal inclinations of the royal family (many of whom have shown Brotherhood sympathies over the years), the fact that their regime is so wholly dependent on alliances with non-Muslim powers, and especially the hated Americans, makes their politics incompatible with the Brotherhood’s global agenda, while the doctrinal and sectarian extremism of the Wahhabi ulama does not go down well with most non-Wahhabi/Salafi Muslims.
 
This is the explanation I've seen:

https://theconcourse.deadspin.com/your-app-isnt-helping-the-people-of-saudi-arabia-1790198445
King Faisal, who reigned from 1964 to 1975, wasn’t a feckaround playboy like his predecessor or many of his successors. He understood the leverage Saudi Arabia’s oil gave him, and once the state started buying more ownership of Aramco, Saudi Arabia became richer and more powerful than ever before. He became a hero in the Arab world for bringing the West to its knees during the 1973 oil embargo, and as the money flowed in he built skyscrapers, hospitals, TV stations, and, most importantly, schools.

The rapid development upset some members of Saudi Arabia’s religious elite, who thought that the modern world Faisal was bringing to the kingdom would cause the masses to forget the fundamentals of their very strict form of Islam. Faisal made them a deal: Development would continue, but the schools he was building would be staffed by teachers from the most conservative of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. Though the Brotherhood’s interpretation of Salafism differed from that of the Saudis’ Wahhabism, Faisal needed teachers, and this was the only arrangement that would satisfy those who feared popular abandonment of conservative values.

Not even a king can please everyone. One day in late March, 1975, Faisal was conducting majils, an Arab custom where one opens one’s home to guests—in this case, citizens petitioning the king on the types of things constituents might ask their members of Congress. Unfortunately for Faisal, one of those citizens was his nephew Prince Faisal bin Musaid. Prince Faisal’s brother, Prince Khaled, had been killed by a cop during an anti-secularism protest a month prior. When the king rose to embrace his nephew, Prince Faisal shot him through the chin and the ear. The king died that night.

Four years after Prince and King Faisal were put in their unadorned graves, King Faisal’s half brother Khalid was king, and another grand humiliation occurred.

For the two weeks between November 20 and December 4, 1979, Mecca’s Grand Mosque, which surrounds Kaaba (the holiest site in Islam where pilgrims venture to during the Hajj), was seized by an armed group who, not for the first or last time in the history of armed groups in the Gulf, believed they were following the Mahdi (the prophesied “Redeemer” in the Koran who arrives to govern earth for a few short years before the Day of Judgement).

Like many violent would-be religious rulers, this was mostly a group of rich kids. Juhayman al-Otaybi, the ringleader (but not the declared Mahdi—that would be his brother-in-law Mohammad), came from one of the city of Najd’s most powerful families. His grandfather was one of Ibn Saud’s riders, and probably saw T.E. Lawrence commit some act of sexual psychosis.

Juhayman, like so many who have been handed everything in life, believed there was a point where his country had gone down the wrong path—secularism—and that he knew how to make things great again, through some combination of his brother-in-law’s status as the Mahdi and more brutal repression of women.

Juhayman and his hundreds of followers beguiled Saudi forces. Even after scores of their ranks had been killed, the survivors used a system of tunnels underneath the Grand Mosque to hide from Saudi Army and National Guard troops. Flustered, King Khalid called in special forces operators from France’s elite GIGN and Pakistan’s SSG.

There’s some disagreement over who actually went in and got the last holdouts to surrender, as an indiscriminate volley of tear gas and explosive grenades killed several of Juhayman’s hostages, but it was ultimately foreign forces who won back the Grand Mosque for the Saudis.

It was mortifying in every aspect. Saudi monarchs felt they had allowed pilgrims to be killed, and had to resort to foreign troops, some of them not even Muslim, to do their dirty work. The religious hardliners had brought them to their knees, and made them look foolish in front of a world that just six years prior buckled under the strength of their oil embargo. So even while surviving members of the raiding party were swiftly beheaded, those in the kingdom that shared their views (aside from the specific belief that some minor rich kid was the Mahdi) were rewarded. The upper management of the royal family, from King Khalid on down, decided that reifying religious authority and social conservatism was the only way to maintain their grip on power.

This could be read as chickens coming home to roost. In the 18th century, the Saud clan adopted Muhammad al-Wahhab’s fundamentalist strand of Sunni Islam in return for his troops’ loyalty in their conquest of the peninsula. After consolidating their power, the Sauds turned machine guns on their own most fervent holy warriors. In the 20th century, the Sauds gave them a blank check.

Remember the ‘80s? As Americans alternately vacuumed up cocaine and purchased indulgences from huckster televangelists, Saudi Arabia experienced its own money-soaked religious revival, all thanks to al-Saud’s embrace of precisely the sort of people who’d killed their king and took their mosque. If you were a preacher in 1980s Saudi Arabia, there’s nothing you could say that was too out there, so long as you respected management. Rallies were held against the concept of photographs, television, anything, really. Meanwhile, with domestic piety at historic highs, the General Intelligence Directorate, the nation’s chief intelligence body, was burning through hundreds of millions of dollars funding armed groups abroad, buying them weapons and bringing them to the light of Wahhabism.

Prince Turki al-Faisal, the head of the agency at the time, was one of the higher-ups who decided that they needed to feed the hand that bit them in 1979. During his tenure, Turki made insurgents out of Afghans, Pakistanis, Chechens, Dagestanis, and anyone else who could be of some use against a regional enemy. He also discovered that wealthy radical Saudis, the kind who could rally groups of armed men to strike against his family but were too important to be disappeared without charges, could be put to similar use. The most notorious of these types was Osama bin Laden, but there were several others. To this day, there are rich Saudis dicking around in Syria, living out their twisted sense of noblesse oblige by locking Alawite women in cages, beheading children, and occasionally killing soldiers loyal to the Syrian Ba’ath Party, one of Saudi Arabia’s current enemies. For wealthy Saudi families, potential problem sons are best seen abroad starring in hostage videos, not heard at home protesting your opulence, hypocrisy, and inability to follow every single tenet of Muhammad Ibn al-Wahhab.

Basically, if allowed to spread too much internally, the ideology could kill the dynasty. Better to export it.
 
A deliberately "unpredictable" foreign policy and sending mixed signals all over the place is leading to fiascos like this:



Also, from the man who claimed yesterday that Turkish forces were the first in the rgion to take on ISIS:

 
From the Qatar-backed MEE, but still... @Kaos

REVEALED: How Gulf states hatched plan with Israel to rehabilitate Assad
Mossad chief Yossi Cohen met Saudi, Emirati and Egyptian officials last month to discuss ways to counter Turkish regional influence, sources say

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-uae-egypt-israel-syria-khashoggi-1467976694

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt have hatched a plan with Israel to welcome Syrian President Bashar al-Assad back into the Arab League to marginalise the regional influence of Turkey and Iran, Middle East Eye can exclusively reveal.

The diplomatic initiative was agreed at a secret meeting held in a Gulf capital last month which was attended by senior intelligence officials from the four countries including Yossi Cohen, the director of Mossad, Gulf sources with knowledge of the meeting have told MEE.
 
From the Qatar-backed MEE, but still... @Kaos

REVEALED: How Gulf states hatched plan with Israel to rehabilitate Assad
Mossad chief Yossi Cohen met Saudi, Emirati and Egyptian officials last month to discuss ways to counter Turkish regional influence, sources say

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-uae-egypt-israel-syria-khashoggi-1467976694

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt have hatched a plan with Israel to welcome Syrian President Bashar al-Assad back into the Arab League to marginalise the regional influence of Turkey and Iran, Middle East Eye can exclusively reveal.

The diplomatic initiative was agreed at a secret meeting held in a Gulf capital last month which was attended by senior intelligence officials from the four countries including Yossi Cohen, the director of Mossad, Gulf sources with knowledge of the meeting have told MEE.
Marginalise Iran by consolidating their closest ally? I still don’t buy it.
 
Marginalise Iran by consolidating their closest ally? I still don’t buy it.

I think what it says there - a Syria allied to Iran, but not beholden to Iran - is achievable. The focus seems to be on Turkey and the MB.
 
Incredible footage here showing what ISIS has been reduced to in the remotest parts of eastern Syria. Watch to the very end:

 
Incredible footage here showing what ISIS has been reduced to in the remotest parts of eastern Syria. Watch to the very end:


I love it when they film an operation banking on its success to surface as a propaganda video, only for us to essentially be gifted a ‘monty python does ISIS’ sketch

And I couldn’t help but laugh when they all drove away leaving their wounded commander behind :lol:
 
I don't see how you can tell it's not carefully constructed propaganda or not, but whether it is or it isn't, it's not funny.
What’s not funny are the ghastly horrors these scumbags have inflicted upon the people of Iraq and Syria. I see no shame in laughing about how it’s all going tits up for them.
 
It still amazes me how 'easily' ISIS managed to capture land in 2013/2014 in Iraq. I realise that the Iraqi army was demoralized and corrupt and suffered from desertions but still though.
 
@2cents @Kaos
Whats happening in the Iraqi-Kurdish areas since isis has been defeated?
Before isis emerged, the narrative was that they are doing well in regard to economic development. During isis, it was all about the fight against them. Now there is very little coverage.
They had their botched referendum, lost oil fields (how relevant are both things?) and there seem to be a lot of internal quarrels.
 
@2cents @Kaos
Whats happening in the Iraqi-Kurdish areas since isis has been defeated?
Before isis emerged, the narrative was that they are doing well in regard to economic development. During isis, it was all about the fight against them. Now there is very little coverage.
They had their botched referendum, lost oil fields (how relevant are both things?) and there seem to be a lot of internal quarrels.

Haven’t really been following it. Seems to be a lot of protests, but couldn’t tell you any more.
 
Iran discovers oil in Abadan region - minister

GENEVA (Reuters) - Iran has discovered oil in the southwestern Abadan region for the first time, Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh was quoted as saying by the Mehr news agency on Wednesday.

The oil was found at a depth of 3,570 metres in an exploratory well and is “very light and sweet”, Zanganeh reportedly said.


“This is the first time we’ve reached oil in the Abadan region,” the minister was quoted as saying.

Zanganeh gave no estimate of how much oil the well might contain.


The United States withdrew from a nuclear deal with Iran last year and imposed sanctions to choke Iran’s oil and banking industries, while temporarily allowing eight customers to keep buying crude from the Islamic Republic.

Iran can not be shut out of global energy markets because of its vast oil and gas reserves, President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday, according to the official presidency website.

“With regard to oil issues, luckily we are pursuing various paths and roads for selling oil and we bypass American sanctions with pride,” Rouhani said.


https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-i...s-oil-in-abadan-region-minister-idUKKCN1PH0TS
 


 
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^ One of the worst and most stupid revolutions in the history of mankind.

Khomeini literally promised free water, electricity, oil, a choice to wear hijab/not, political choice and working with other political parties (communists AKA Toodeh, MEK, etc) to people ... no wonder the gullible masses were fooled.
Also Shah's biggest mistake was abolishing political parties a few years before 1979 to create one united party. People's economic situation was improving year after year (booming oil prices) combined with the white revolution and his cultural reforms, but the political freedom didn't match the relative economic prosperity and combined with Khomeini's empty promises and shallow propaganda, it all went south. The revolution could have been avoided in many ways dating back to 1964, but Shah's bad decision making, appeasement to the clerics (His father is quoted saying he's concerned Mohammad Reza is being raised too religious) and lack of ruthlessness (compared to his father) proved costly in the end.
 
I don't see how you can tell it's not carefully constructed propaganda or not, but whether it is or it isn't, it's not funny.

The fact this murdering piece of shit, almost certainly died a slow brutal, and painful death, and left us this comedy show is the absolute peak of hilarity.
 
The fact this murdering piece of shit, almost certainly died a slow brutal, and painful death, and left us this comedy show is the absolute peak of hilarity.
Since he was only met with incomprehension so far: I can very much relate to what @711 said.