Middle East Politics
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
MBS' dollars starting to bear fruit.
DerSpiegel reported about protests in Basra back in July. So that seems to be going on for a while now. The gist was, that the government fails to provide basic services incl. water. Additionally they mentioned that ISIS stopped dominating the news/attention, so people focus more on their daily suffering and won't give the government a pass for sucking.
It is very hard to see how a country like Iraq can deal can solve its vicious cycle of instability and economic stagnation. Big parts of the country are destroyed, gigantic lack of investment => instability => nobody is going to invest in it => civil unrest => instability. rinse and repeat.
It is very hard to see how a country like Iraq can deal can solve its vicious cycle of instability and economic stagnation. Big parts of the country are destroyed, gigantic lack of investment => instability => nobody is going to invest in it => civil unrest => instability. rinse and repeat.
Today is 40 years since the Black Friday massacre of protesters by the security forces of the Shah in Tehran, point of no return for the Iranian Revolution.
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Hilarious. Now what ?
It's amazing how much of his feed is dedicated to US domestic stuff. Really drives home how much of a superpower it is.
I'd be interested to know who exactly he's aiming to communicate with since Twitter is banned in Iran.
Thread on the imminent Idlib operation:
This is a more comprehensive analysis - https://www.washingtoninstitute.org...et-turkish-backed-rebels#.W5fVIDvkxWQ.twitter
This is a more comprehensive analysis - https://www.washingtoninstitute.org...et-turkish-backed-rebels#.W5fVIDvkxWQ.twitter
What military presence does turkey exactly have in Idlib? Are these outposts primarily manned with few observers? Do they have heavy weapons? What's the menpower?
Turkey surely won't just let the Syrian army just defeat/kill it's soldiers?
What options does turkey actually have to respond to the inevitable attack?
They seem to have backed themselves into a corner and that seems to increase the risk that they do something very stupid.
They don't really have a direct military presence there from what I understand. They are attempting to preserve a measure of influence through their FSA proxies who are harassed and generally outgunned by HTS. Their actual military presence in Syria is limited to Afrin and the area north of Aleppo east to the Euphrates, where I guess they'll be for a long time. I'm really not sure what use these 'observation posts' have beyond their stated function.
They could abandon their understanding with Moscow and give full support to HTS (which would in practice include allowing HTS to extend its authority over their FSA proxies and the entire province of Idlib). This would probably result in a Russia-Turkey crisis, not to mention the unavoidable bad press internationally that would come with publicly/explicitly supporting an al Qaeda group. My guess is that Erdogan will back down like he usually does and maybe get to hold on to a small face-saving slice of Idlib adjacent to Afrin or Aleppo in exchange; Turkey's FSA proxies will end up surrendering to the regime rather meekly, with some of them joining Assad's forces; and HTS will put up an extremely dogged, prolonged and bloody resistance which will ultimately prove fruitless. Two things that may complicate matters are (1) the expected wave of displaced civilians fleeing Idlib into Turkish-controlled areas and Turkey itself, and (2) any further use of chemical weapons by the regime. These things could force Erdogan to act in ways contrary to what I'd expect.
On the other map/graphic of their report are "Turkish observation posts" and there have been many pictures showing Turkish military convoys entering idlib. I always assumed that Turkish soldiers have actually set up shop in some areas and not just shuttled their proxies to these areas.
The phrasing in the link is somewhat ambiguous: "in fact, the Turkish military has to negotiate with HTS just to send soldiers and equipment to its own observation posts on the frontlines with the Syrian army. "
+ This tweet and the next would indicate that she thinks that there are Turkish soldiers around.
The phrasing in the link is somewhat ambiguous: "in fact, the Turkish military has to negotiate with HTS just to send soldiers and equipment to its own observation posts on the frontlines with the Syrian army. "
+ This tweet and the next would indicate that she thinks that there are Turkish soldiers around.
Ah I missed that, just assumed she was referring to local proxies. This seems to confirm an actual direct military presence - https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/05/turkey-syria-risky-idlib-deployment.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...-icc-washington-speech?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
John Bolton threatens war crimes court with sanctions in virulent attack
US national security adviser calls ICC illegitimate and says ‘we will let it die on its own’
It’s surprising, even for this administration, that they would basically tell the world - We are a rogue state.
John Bolton threatens war crimes court with sanctions in virulent attack
US national security adviser calls ICC illegitimate and says ‘we will let it die on its own’
It’s surprising, even for this administration, that they would basically tell the world - We are a rogue state.
40 years today:
(Edit): some context:
Sadat and Begin – the Peacemakers
It is widely assumed that Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat made peace despite their deep personal incompatibilities. But in fact, there were significant parallels in the lives of both men, and these may have facilitated their coming to an agreement. The similarities between them – their early careers in “underground” movements, their stints in prison, their struggles against the British and hatred of the Soviet Union, their years on the margins of power, and their clearly defined definitions of homeland – may have eased their final compromise.
https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/sadat-begin-peacemakers/
(Edit): some context:
Sadat and Begin – the Peacemakers
It is widely assumed that Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat made peace despite their deep personal incompatibilities. But in fact, there were significant parallels in the lives of both men, and these may have facilitated their coming to an agreement. The similarities between them – their early careers in “underground” movements, their stints in prison, their struggles against the British and hatred of the Soviet Union, their years on the margins of power, and their clearly defined definitions of homeland – may have eased their final compromise.
https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/sadat-begin-peacemakers/
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@PedroMendez
Must say I didn't see this coming. If the agreement holds it'll prevent a truly awful battle. Hard to see how Turkey can get HTS to go along though. If they manage it, then Idlib essentially belongs to Turkey now.
The lack of US involvement in this process has been incredible.
Must say I didn't see this coming. If the agreement holds it'll prevent a truly awful battle. Hard to see how Turkey can get HTS to go along though. If they manage it, then Idlib essentially belongs to Turkey now.
The lack of US involvement in this process has been incredible.
@2cents
How many countries just annexed (openly or via indefinite occupation) parts of another country in the post WW2 era (not including contested border conflicts or issues of self-determination)? Russia in Ukraine+ georgia. Israel/Golan. It feels like there should be more examples but I can't think of any.
How many countries just annexed (openly or via indefinite occupation) parts of another country in the post WW2 era (not including contested border conflicts or issues of self-determination)? Russia in Ukraine+ georgia. Israel/Golan. It feels like there should be more examples but I can't think of any.
Turkey in Northern Cyprus?
Discounting immediate post-colonial situations like the Moroccan annexation of Western Sahara, Iraq taking Kuwait is the most famous example. Obviously didn't last long though. There's probably some other cases in sub Saharan African conflicts that I don't know about.
In this context though the Turkish annexation of the Syrian province of Alexandretta (today's Hatay) in 1938 might be the most relevant for helping us understand how much Turkey values the sovereignty of Syria and Iraq. I don't see Turkey actually formally annexing any of these territories though.
This is maybe the most relevant example in terms of how Turkey might formalise its presence in northern Syria. They didn't annex northern Cyprus, instead they set up a puppet regime independent in name but completely subservient to Ankara in practice.
(Edit): Another model for the Turkish presence in northern Syria might be Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon, whereby the IDF maintained its own limited buffer zone along the border while supporting its allied Lebanese militia (the South Lebanon Army) to retain a facade of legitimacy.
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To be fair, both Crimea (and Donetsk plus Lugansk if you count them) and Ossetia/Abkhazia are an issues of self-determination. Putin used those issues to his advantage and in no way am I defending his actions, but still.
China taking Tibet is surely another obvious case?
Wow, Max Blumenthal is a proper scumbag:
Very unusual attack on security forces in Iran:
Gunmen kill 24 at high-profile military parade in brazen Iran attack
Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif has blamed US and its regional allies Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel for the attack, which was claimed by Isis
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.ind...ry-parade-dead-ahvaz-terror-a8549976.html?amp
Gunmen kill 24 at high-profile military parade in brazen Iran attack
Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif has blamed US and its regional allies Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel for the attack, which was claimed by Isis
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.ind...ry-parade-dead-ahvaz-terror-a8549976.html?amp
"The sanctions are working...We saw a young man yesterday willing to sell his internal organs for 500 dollars."
Looks like an interesting read:
Sounds like Adel Abdel-Mehdi will be Iraqi PM and Barham Saleh will be President. Quality on both fronts.
Bergman is a serious, well-respected and connected journalist. Can’t say more than that without reading it.
Those Saudi reforms seem to be going well:
Turkey concludes Saudi journalist Khashoggi killed by ‘murder’ team, sources say
Turkey has concluded that Jamal Khashoggi, a prominent journalist from Saudi Arabia, was killed in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul earlier this week by a Saudi team sent “specifically for the murder,” two people with knowledge of the probe said Saturday.
Turkish investigators believe a 15-member team “came from Saudi Arabia. It was a preplanned murder,” said one of the people. Both spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the ongoing investigation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ffaf6d422aa_story.html?utm_term=.74d7698b56d2
Turkey concludes Saudi journalist Khashoggi killed by ‘murder’ team, sources say
Turkey has concluded that Jamal Khashoggi, a prominent journalist from Saudi Arabia, was killed in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul earlier this week by a Saudi team sent “specifically for the murder,” two people with knowledge of the probe said Saturday.
Turkish investigators believe a 15-member team “came from Saudi Arabia. It was a preplanned murder,” said one of the people. Both spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the ongoing investigation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ffaf6d422aa_story.html?utm_term=.74d7698b56d2
A Middle East Monarchy Hired American Ex-Soldiers To Kill Its Political Enemies. This Could Be The Future Of War.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/articl...assassination-us-yemen-uae-spear-golan-dahlan
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/articl...assassination-us-yemen-uae-spear-golan-dahlan
ISIS took 700 hostages, including U.S. citizens, in Syria: Putin.
https://southfront.org/putin-says-i...izens-hostage-in-us-controlled-part-of-syria/
The 700 hostages captured in Syria by ISIS include US and European citizens and are being killed off 10 people a day, Russian President Vladimir Putin said during the Valdai Discussion Club’s 15th Annual Meeting on October 18.
He also criticized US forces for “catastrophic” failure. He added that the terrorists “have delivered ultimatums and made certain demands, threatening … to shoot ten people every day.”
According to Putin, the terrorists already started carrying out their threats and executed ten hostages two days ago.
“Some US and European citizens are among the hostages,” the president said adding that “everyone is silent … as if nothing has happened.”
On October 17, the Russian news agency TASS reported citing a military diplomatic source reported that 700 hostages were captured by ISIS in the Syrian province of Deir Ezzor during a failed advance by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces and the US-led coalition.
https://southfront.org/putin-says-i...izens-hostage-in-us-controlled-part-of-syria/
The 700 hostages captured in Syria by ISIS include US and European citizens and are being killed off 10 people a day, Russian President Vladimir Putin said during the Valdai Discussion Club’s 15th Annual Meeting on October 18.
He also criticized US forces for “catastrophic” failure. He added that the terrorists “have delivered ultimatums and made certain demands, threatening … to shoot ten people every day.”
According to Putin, the terrorists already started carrying out their threats and executed ten hostages two days ago.
“Some US and European citizens are among the hostages,” the president said adding that “everyone is silent … as if nothing has happened.”
On October 17, the Russian news agency TASS reported citing a military diplomatic source reported that 700 hostages were captured by ISIS in the Syrian province of Deir Ezzor during a failed advance by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces and the US-led coalition.