If a player was underperforming his XG, it would be an even bigger reason not to sign him.
XG is a useful stat at times, but it can go a bit too far.
Matheus Cunha £62.5m release clause
- Thread starter dinostar77
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XG is a useful stat at times, but it can go a bit too far.
Both PSG and Barcelona dominate the ball and are parked in the other teams half for 90% of their Matches, Marcus is quite capable of chasing back 15/20 yards to win the ball back as he’s proven with Villa.
He’s at that age where this is his last chance, £40m for PSG or Barcelona is not a hurdle nor would his reduced £200-250k wages which is the same he’d get at United with no European Football, only difference is Amorim won’t select him in any match day squad if he returns to United.
I will happily bet you 100 quid right now that he does not move to Barca or PSG, more chance of Kieffer Moore going to Real Madrid.
Whoever we sign, be it Cunha, Osimhen, Delap or Gyokeres, needs to hit the ground running. Any sort of slow start will just add more pressure to themselves and that's when it gets toxic online, and that's when the vultures start to circle.
Other than Bruno, I can't remember a player who has come in and immediately looked like they mean business in an attacking sense.
Other than Bruno, I can't remember a player who has come in and immediately looked like they mean business in an attacking sense.
Isnt Rashford most effective running behind defences into open space? Not that Barcelona and esp. PSG wouldnt get number of fast transitional moves per game. But I simply cant see these particular two clubs going for him, nevermind at those figures. Can only see Saudis (would Marcus even move there?), MLS (would they be able to afford him?) or Mr. Boehly.
So, we're leading the 'race' for this lad, but can't afford him until we sell players and in the meantime other clubs can just offer the release clause. Doesn't sound massively promising.
Interesting post. Point well made, if I may say so
Not sure about this one.
I think he's definitely a talented player, and would of course support him if he joined - but it just feels like a bad move. Get the impression he won't help the ropey dressing room we appear to have mentality-wise atm, and £62m is a lot of money for us at the moment (apparently).
There's nobody that I can think of (that's available) at the moment that I can suggest will solve our attacking woes (not like there's an overabundance of that sort of player knocking about), but this just feels... off.
I think he's definitely a talented player, and would of course support him if he joined - but it just feels like a bad move. Get the impression he won't help the ropey dressing room we appear to have mentality-wise atm, and £62m is a lot of money for us at the moment (apparently).
There's nobody that I can think of (that's available) at the moment that I can suggest will solve our attacking woes (not like there's an overabundance of that sort of player knocking about), but this just feels... off.
He's just running hot, like Haaland did at the start of the season, then mean reverted and is now below his xG. Wolves are looking for chumps to take him at this fee whilst his numbers are way better than they'll be in future. Just another Anthony for Utd to massively overpay for... As a Chelsea fan I should know, we paid at least 50% too much for pretty much every player in the squad bar Jackson (who is similar to Cunha but we paid £30m..) and Palmer.
ChatGPSarni
I don't think there's a signing we could realistically make who would be a safer bet for that left sided 10 position.
He's proven his quality in the same league for two years. He plays in the exact same position in the exact same formation he'd be playing here. In terms of age profile, he's right his prime with maybe 5 years left of it. He turns up against the biggest sides and has scored at Anfield, the Emirates, and a game winning hattrick at Stamford Bridge.
Of course he could still flop - any player could - but I can't see who else would tick more boxes for that job.
He's proven his quality in the same league for two years. He plays in the exact same position in the exact same formation he'd be playing here. In terms of age profile, he's right his prime with maybe 5 years left of it. He turns up against the biggest sides and has scored at Anfield, the Emirates, and a game winning hattrick at Stamford Bridge.
Of course he could still flop - any player could - but I can't see who else would tick more boxes for that job.
In that video he has 15 goals without a single penalty and I count 9 of them he created him self, he is a game changer and exactly what we need.
City paid 65 million for Marmoush who is a similar player at a similar age and from what I have seen this season in the league I think Cunha is the better player although they both look great.
Anybody worried about his xG should look at every other player in the bottom half of the table that isn't taking penalties. Lots moan about missing out on players like Kudus at 50 million and his xG is 6.3 with 3 goals and last year it was an xG of 5 with 8 goals. Looking at a players xG to determine whether they're good or not is ridiculous.
City paid 65 million for Marmoush who is a similar player at a similar age and from what I have seen this season in the league I think Cunha is the better player although they both look great.
Anybody worried about his xG should look at every other player in the bottom half of the table that isn't taking penalties. Lots moan about missing out on players like Kudus at 50 million and his xG is 6.3 with 3 goals and last year it was an xG of 5 with 8 goals. Looking at a players xG to determine whether they're good or not is ridiculous.
Didn't realise he can finish with either foot.
That’s the worry for me with him. I think he fits Amorim’s system perfectly as he’s the halfway house between a central playmaker/striker and a winger, but I don’t think he has a proper position in a conventional formation.
I don’t really see Amorim ending in success, so bit nervous about the next manager inheriting a player like him. (And Mount, and Zirkzee)
That one at Anfield at 3:42 is filth. Sends Gravenberch and Van Dijk down the road with a fake shot on his right, and curls a pearler into the bottom corner with his left.
Then he’s coming back to old Trafford?
We’re so bad we can swallow pretty any player on the planet alive. So what do we do? Not bother signing anyone? Resign ourselves to being a bottom table team? Exclusively take punts on cheaper players who have done less who are even bigger risks of coming good?
Every transfer ever is a risk. That is not a sound justification for not signing a player.
A player who has been performing at a consistently high level in the PL for several seasons, who perfectly suits our formation and plays in a position where we have no obvious fit, who brings key elements to our attack that we’re so clearly missing (pace, shooting, ability to carry the ball), are all factors which seem to mitigate the inherent risks substantially.
Good post, in fairness
C'mon to feck and we support a player / get excited about something for once.
I think the DonBecks post is a little bit disingenuous to be fair. The big criticism of Cunha is not that "he doesn't score enough goals", it's that "he's scoring enough goals because he's evidently on a completely unsustainable hot streak, which won't last".
We need many things. A keeper that can save, central midfielders that have stamina and technique for the league, 10s, strikers. We even need wingbacks to accommodate this managers system. That’s before we consider Lindelof and Evans leaving. There are so many gaps in this squad I think spending £63m on one player is not smart. Have Wolves ever sold a player for that much? I remember Jota and Nunes being sold for less and arguably had similar form to Cunha.
We'll have to agree to disagree on that, I consider it a flight of fancy that Garnacho will improve enough, given the fundamental flaws in his game that would need ironing out and his physical drawbacks, but that's for the Garnacho thread (and I think we've already done it do death in there!
).As for Cunha, he's objectively miles better at every part of the game. If that isn't a £60m upgrade (or really more like £30m if we sell Garnacho), then what would be? If you don't want to point to any players, can you explain the skills and abilities you'd want for one of our starting 10s, and the key stats we should be looking at?
Which is, of course, nothing more than speculation. Some players just hit their stride in their mid twenties and retain that knack for scoring, or even improve it. It’s impossible to tell whether this is just a very long hot streak or Cunha developing into a better and more dangerous player. Either way it’s hard for me to imagine Cunha not being a significant improvement on our current options at left 10.
An actual consistent goal threat, or a consistently creative player. Realistically I think you're look at Cunha and he's a 5-10 goal a season player who might break 5 assists in a good year. £60m is so, so much money for a player with that little productivity. He's an Antony Gordon/Justin Kluivert level player who we'll be paying Julian Alvarez money for because we need a number 10 this season and he's the one having his hot streak. Realistically I just don't see how you can justify dropping that much cash on him over two younger players (no clue who) who you're far more likely to see their best years out of for half the price.We'll have to agree to disagree on that, I consider it a flight of fancy that Garnacho will improve enough, given the fundamental flaws in his game that would need ironing out and his physical drawbacks, but that's for the Garnacho thread (and I think we've already done it do death in there!
As for Cunha, he's objectively miles better at every part of the game. If that isn't a £60m upgrade (or really more like £30m if we sell Garnacho), then what would be? If you don't want to point to any players, can you explain the skills and abilities you'd want for one of our starting 10s, and the key stats we should be looking at?
I'm also not remotely convinced that he's equipped to play in a possession based team who don't get as many transition opportunities as he's used it. If he was going for a similar price to say, what Spurs paid for Kuluseveski, then I could get behind it, but at £60m you have to be a success and there's just way too many question marks around him and his game for that to be the case.
Have to say I'm against the majority in I'm absolutely delighted we are potentially signing him. I think he is the perfect signing.
I don't really understand all this xg stuff, but from watching him play football I would love to see him in a United shirt next season, tearing it up with Amad next to him.
The deep conversation him and Amorim had at ft after the away game suggested we were going to be after him, maybe.
I don't really understand all this xg stuff, but from watching him play football I would love to see him in a United shirt next season, tearing it up with Amad next to him.
The deep conversation him and Amorim had at ft after the away game suggested we were going to be after him, maybe.
it's not just speculation though, is it? Because literally nobody in the history of world football has managed to sustain that level of xG over-performance for more than a season or two. Son Heung-Min, a player who has out-performed his xG in 9 of his last 11 seasons has a career over-performance of half of what Cunha is doing this season.
Cunha may have developed to be the most outrageously gifted finisher in history in the last 18 months and if so then we'll get a good deal, however, I think it's far, far more likely the player who has over-performed his xG in 2 of his last 7 seasons is in fact just having a hot streak and if he was developing into a a twice as dangerous player as he used to be that would in fact be represented in some way in his underlying statistics, rather than a very admirable highlight reel of long range bangers (something I suspect would annoy some people on this forum when they stop going in, given previous discussions).
Start praying that Villa and Chelsea finish in the top 5
Whatever worries I have about his attitude, he is a very good player. Anyone downplaying that with stats needs to watch him play a bit more.
Considering what we have been subjected to watching at points this season. Him, Amad and a good striker would feel like a dream.
Considering what we have been subjected to watching at points this season. Him, Amad and a good striker would feel like a dream.
He can still play as one of the front three. A lot of teams have that one forward who comes inside a lot more with the full back overlapping and providing the width.
I did read that we are currently preparing as though that is the most likely outcome with our focus being on finding another loan for next season unless there is a sudden reconcilliation with Amorim. Villa might pick up the option but it is CL dependent and Marcus has been quite lukewarm on the idea of staying and so far there is no indication that any of the clubs his entourage are targeting have any interest in him. The expectation is we are going to have to do the same as we did with Sancho this summer after his return from Dortmund, make nice for the media and work like crazy behind the scenes to secure some sort of exit to get some of his wages off the books.
At one point, we were one of the teams with the most created big chances, but with probably the worst conversion. Which means we are creating chances. Even if he is underperforming his XG's or comes down to his normal XG, he will still score a lot for us.
I think he will be like Bruno- just a very good transfer
For 2 years in a bad team?
I know. But. This is ground zero for the INEOS setup and they know it. They will be giving Amorim another spin, yes, but this is effectively year 1 of the great upgrade. Everything has to be massively improved next season. So expect Anthony Rashford and Sancho to go. Expect a new goalie. New10, new 9. Those are the priorities. If we get CL we will need at least 2 more players.
https://www.molineux.news/news/math...assing-statistic-wolves-fans-wont-be-shocked/
he has scored some outrageous goals this year for sure and looks a good player on the ball, his off the ball work is fecking rank though he barely makes an effort defensively makes Rashford look like prime Rooney
he has scored some outrageous goals this year for sure and looks a good player on the ball, his off the ball work is fecking rank though he barely makes an effort defensively makes Rashford look like prime Rooney
I have got belly button lint older than the invention of XG. It is modern woke nonsense young man, good players score even when the odds are against them, it is what separates them from the herd.
We need a dribbler in the middle of the park and he will provide just that. The one question mark is his temperament.
Oh and of course the quoted release clause and possibly paying higher to pay in installments. It's fine if we have CL, but if not, there won't be much money left for a top striker, which I think should be priority #1.
Or maybe he will play as striker. I think he can, like Martial did.
Oh and of course the quoted release clause and possibly paying higher to pay in installments. It's fine if we have CL, but if not, there won't be much money left for a top striker, which I think should be priority #1.
Or maybe he will play as striker. I think he can, like Martial did.
It's RedCafe in a nutshell these days, it's on par with Reddit and X as being a depressing hellhole unfortunately.
I am excited by Cunha, I think he can be a bit of a cnut but I believe we need some of those in our team.
The over-performance has been largely since the start of 2024, so it's a year and a half. And yes, players in bad teams can go on hot streaks, he literally has 14 goals from an xG of 7 this year. There's not really an arguable case against this being a sustainable rate.
I don’t have time to start going through years worth of old XG stats, but there are definitely examples of players hitting their scoring prime right around Cunha’s age, and becoming consistently high scorers after not scoring anywhere near as much in their early twenties. Salah is a prime example of that.
So yes, whether this is a hot streak or part of his ongoing development is speculation - none of us have a crystal ball. That’s why transfers are always a risk, whatever the “evidence” people argue over.
It’s not outrageous to think that with the right recruitment elsewhere this summer, we can improve our attack significantly which results in the likes of Cunha getting into goal scoring positions more often than he does right now with Wolves, and therefore he wouldn’t need to outperform his xG by so much to still be an enormous upgrade on the likes of Zirkzee or Mainoo in that position. Again, that’s speculation, but it’s no more speculative than your assertion that the past two seasons are just a hot streak and he’s going to revert to 5-10 goals a season (which again, would still be an upgrade from our current situation).
Beyond that xG speculation, it’s abundantly clear from watching him that he offers lots of things we currently lack in our team and lack in our attack. So if Amorim thinks he has the right attributes to get our team scoring more goals then I am fine with us spending than sum on him.