I can't find the article but I read somewhere they took 20,000 shots and grouped them in a number of categories. Depending on category they calculated on how many occasions the goal was scored. So obviously if you have great long-range shooter he may score more goals than is expected from any given position outside the box, but I guess the assumption is if you analyze the larger sample it will even out.
Match Stats - Data Perspective
- Thread starter Borys
- Start date
Thanks, I will look it up and see if I can find it.
Early conlcusions, but it seems we're only now getting to the xG in the same range of Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea.
We're definitely playing it safe, focusing on not conceding chances which is understendable considering our shocking start. We were extremely lucky against Brighton, and our finishing against RB was fantastic although I'd expect to have higher xG for that game. Arsenal score is fecked by penalty. We could use some stabilization, but there are positive signs. A lot of work to be done.
Basing on the graphs, Liverpool is playing high xG-high xGA game. So far it's working for them and their xG score is great predictor of final outcome.
Chelsea is in top form since drawing against United, they are creating many good chances and not conceding many. Expect them to grab a lot of points in next games.
Don't see any pattern for Tottenham, up and down but some stability in last 3 games. They've won against the odds the City game (2 goals from 4 shots), typical Mourinho game, although their two chances were rated quite low IMO.
I find xG to be nothing more than just vanity. Footnote at best. We lost the match (but at least we attack more)
The first barometer is the league table, it's the one and only thing that matters.
xG can be used sparingly to analyze a freak match where you have 20 shots on goal but ended up with 0:0. If you use xG over a season it simply highlights that your striker is shit, or your whole team is shit, there's no two ways about it. If you claim to have great xG but low pts it still means you sucks. If you can't score against WBA it doesnt matter how big your xG is, you still suck.
Table never lies, 38 games is a good indicator of how good you are as a team.
The first barometer is the league table, it's the one and only thing that matters.
xG can be used sparingly to analyze a freak match where you have 20 shots on goal but ended up with 0:0. If you use xG over a season it simply highlights that your striker is shit, or your whole team is shit, there's no two ways about it. If you claim to have great xG but low pts it still means you sucks. If you can't score against WBA it doesnt matter how big your xG is, you still suck.
Table never lies, 38 games is a good indicator of how good you are as a team.
It's hard to believe that progressional coaches utilize things like xG.
I think these mathematical models (they're just approximations) are really just for Fantasy Football.
Good thread again, stats is always interesting, but it (i.e. data) shouldn't be the main argument or perspective IMO.
Personally I prefer to have many perspectives then try to combine all, balance it well and so on to get the full picture.
I'm not seeing any contradictions so far of the data presented in OP and so on with what we can already see clearly just from watching the players perform with our eyes.
Do more data analysis of past and upcoming games this season please.
Tend to agree with this.
Although anything that says 'the statistics show we should have lost/won/drew' but we didn't...i would argue that we are focusing on the wrong statistics.
As with most things in life...the only true stat is what actually happened.
Manchester United 4 : 1 Istanbul Basaksehir (Bruno 7', 19', Rashford 36', James 90 / Turuc 75')
24/11/20, xG=3,8 xGA=1,0
Positives:
Some interesting points:
We also got the highest xG and xG diff of all games this week in Champions League:
24/11/20, xG=3,8 xGA=1,0
- Possession 52%, 84% passing accuracy
- 8/16 shots on target (25% conversion rate)
- clear positive trend since the Arsenal game; actually xG-xGA looks like a trend line!
- different setup yesterday with attacking intent (high xG game) - interesting if it's because Ole got more adventorous or he got more confidence with the defence
- higher xGA was also the result, remains to be seen if it's because of Donny in midfield.
- xG diff at the level of -2,8 is the lowest for Istanbul - they did better against PSG (-1,6) and RB (-0,7) - might expect to draw against RB next round
- the difference in shots taken vs WBA isn't that great (8/16 on taget vs IST, 6/16 on target vs WBA) - however, we had a great conversion rate (25%)
Positives:
- conversion rate at the level of 50% (of shots on target) - compared to 16% against WBA if we count pen
- we were much more balanced than against WBA, and we played with focal point in either Rashford or Cavani
Some interesting points:
- Telles made 11 crosses, more than entire team combined (5); his crossing resulted in two mistakes (?) and eventually a goal. This seems to be a new weapon for us and I see this as a reason we might want to switch to back 5 to give him more freedom
- in the last two games, despite xG of over 3 on average (which is very high), we've scored only one goal from non-interrupted passage of play - Daniel James goal from Greenwood pass. It highlights that all our strikers are out of form currently, so we should be looking forward to next games.
- both Fred and Donny actually played the same role (Fred on the left, vdB on the right) and there is almost no difference between their stats (passing 90%, 1 succesful dribble), with Fred making 20% more passes and 50% more pressing
- we've won only 46% of aerial duels (compared to 86% won vs WBA); midfield of Fred and Donny lost all 4 duels so that's why I think this is not an answer for the EPL. Van de Beek was impressive on the ball, but looked weak defensively. Unfortunately, it seemed Fred also was not himself, so probably should give that pairing another chance. This is another reason to go 3-5-2 with McTominay stepping into midfield when defending.
- Overall I think we were a little too soft, seemed like sometimes we should just attack player on the ball faster. Could use a little of McTominay to bring them down in my opinion, but it might as well be a strategy from Ole to avoid injuries, considering the number of games we play in coming weeks.
We also got the highest xG and xG diff of all games this week in Champions League:
| Home Team | xG | xG diff | xG | Away Team |
| ManUtd | 3,8 | 2,8 | 1 | Istanbul |
| M'Gladbach | 2,8 | 2,1 | 0,7 | Shaktar |
| Dynamo | 0,5 | 2 | 2,5 | Barcelona |
| Lazio | 2,4 | 1,9 | 0,5 | Zenit |
| Ajax | 3 | 1,8 | 1,2 | Midtylland |
| Bayern | 1,3 | 1,6 | 2,9 | Salzburg |
| Rennes | 1,2 | 0,9 | 2,1 | Chelsea |
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Great job by the OP on creating this thread. Really good to have a bit of data and hard facts to build a discussion on.
That right wing position is such a glaringly obvious flaw with this squad, that it continues to baffle me how the club hasn't been able to address it for so long. Everyone can see it, and the data is there to back it up as well. Just think about it for a second; We're talking about the very top of the game here, PL and CL, where I'd imagine clubs generally try to take advantage of every possible parameter there is that can influence a game of football. And yet here's Manchester United, expected to at least be competitive at that level, but regularly sending onto the pitch a team with just 2/3rds of an attacking creative line. How's that for a parameter? Is it any wonder then that they seem to perform the best when counter-attacking, and that the manager seems to rely on that strategy more often than one perhaps would like to see?
And there are negative knock-on effects of that as well, for the team, for the manager and for individual players:
- The manager seems to spend an awful lot of time and tinkering to get something happening down that side of the pitch.
- "We're just a counter-attacking team" - criticism from fans and pundits.
- "AWB isn't good enough going forward". But imagine the amount of freedom a player like Saint-Maximin (or someone else who can actually dribble past a man) could have with AWB behind him. Nobody would complain about AWB then. He could just do his regular routine of defending well, and supporting the right side from deeper.
- "Juan Mata is past it". But Juan Mata isn't a winger, he isn't quick enough to go past a player. Maybe he could do a job with an offensive, overlapping wingback, but then we're back at "AWB isn't good enough going forward". So kudos to Mata for regularly sacrificing his reputation as a player to try and paper over that right hand side for the club. Being hung out to dry.
- "Daniel James will never be good enough". Maybe. But it's not like he's in an environment where he can play with low shoulders, and focus on just developing game by game. Lots of responsibility on him as rookie, and he seems nervous when on the pitch. Not a great learning environment for him. I bet the players and staff talk about that right hand side a lot behind closed doors, how to fix it, how to get something happening there.
- Although Greenwood has performed well beyond what anyone could've expected, I would personally like to see him freed up to be utilised as a backup striker. Not a big deal though, at least he's getting game time and doing well.
That right wing position is such a glaringly obvious flaw with this squad, that it continues to baffle me how the club hasn't been able to address it for so long. Everyone can see it, and the data is there to back it up as well. Just think about it for a second; We're talking about the very top of the game here, PL and CL, where I'd imagine clubs generally try to take advantage of every possible parameter there is that can influence a game of football. And yet here's Manchester United, expected to at least be competitive at that level, but regularly sending onto the pitch a team with just 2/3rds of an attacking creative line. How's that for a parameter? Is it any wonder then that they seem to perform the best when counter-attacking, and that the manager seems to rely on that strategy more often than one perhaps would like to see?
And there are negative knock-on effects of that as well, for the team, for the manager and for individual players:
- The manager seems to spend an awful lot of time and tinkering to get something happening down that side of the pitch.
- "We're just a counter-attacking team" - criticism from fans and pundits.
- "AWB isn't good enough going forward". But imagine the amount of freedom a player like Saint-Maximin (or someone else who can actually dribble past a man) could have with AWB behind him. Nobody would complain about AWB then. He could just do his regular routine of defending well, and supporting the right side from deeper.
- "Juan Mata is past it". But Juan Mata isn't a winger, he isn't quick enough to go past a player. Maybe he could do a job with an offensive, overlapping wingback, but then we're back at "AWB isn't good enough going forward". So kudos to Mata for regularly sacrificing his reputation as a player to try and paper over that right hand side for the club. Being hung out to dry.
- "Daniel James will never be good enough". Maybe. But it's not like he's in an environment where he can play with low shoulders, and focus on just developing game by game. Lots of responsibility on him as rookie, and he seems nervous when on the pitch. Not a great learning environment for him. I bet the players and staff talk about that right hand side a lot behind closed doors, how to fix it, how to get something happening there.
- Although Greenwood has performed well beyond what anyone could've expected, I would personally like to see him freed up to be utilised as a backup striker. Not a big deal though, at least he's getting game time and doing well.
All excellent points mate, especially this bit:
I am a Problem Solver by nature (and occupation). If you're trying to improve, you need to analyze the current situation, determine what can be improved and then work on a solution. In my opinion, which is supported by data analysis in this thread, there are two* serious issues we have currently: conversion rate and no threat on the right side. The former we can't really improve, this is down to personnel and form - I think we're really unlycky that all strikers are missing so many chances. A lot of people point out that we had our best period last season after the restart. The main difference between now and then is not overall play or build up, it's that all 3 of Rashford, Martial and especially Greenwood scored many great goals. This is simply not happening now. Clips are available online.
The second issue - lack of threat on the right wing - consequences are far more reaching than many people see. It's much easier to defend against team that throw all threat in the same area of the pitch (which is what we've been doing). You need balance - balance in midfield, but also balance in ability to stretch the play left to right. This can be improved upon, and I think how we played last game was much better, with Rashford staying on the right and Cavani moving both vertically and horizontally, dropping to the wings. Just take a look how much space Martial had on the left at times to run at the defenders.
I said it in another thread, buying any top dribbler to put him on the side will not solve this issue if he'll be facing 3 defenders (like when we play only on the left wing). Take a look at Liverpool and City, they work great to isolate fullback against one of their wingers - this is what we need to be doing.
I would like to highlight another important point - lack of threat is not on Mata and Wan Bissaka, it's on Ole entirely. How can anyone think Mata is a good enough option to play on wings for Manchester United (even as a squad player) is beyond me, and AWB is just a very good natural defender, but not much more. Also, just the idea of playing both of them at the same time is mind boggling. Doesn't matter that Mata comes inside because eventually the result is no wing play on the right.
*obviously the total number of issues is higher, but all are minor compared to those two.
The thing is, I've been saying for about two months that Cavani should be starting (at CF), Fred and McTominay should both start and only one of van de Beek, Pogba or Fernandes should accompany them, that we should either solve the right wing spot or switch to a system with wingbacks and no wingers, and that Telles should be used as much as possible, in a role that lets him stay wide and get up the pitch (because he can cross).
And even though I'm a programmer by occupation, I didn't need a single line of code or graph to tell me these things.
Fantastic thread, but the naked eye can tell that we've had no right side for far, far, far too long.
And even though I'm a programmer by occupation, I didn't need a single line of code or graph to tell me these things.
Fantastic thread, but the naked eye can tell that we've had no right side for far, far, far too long.
Yep, that's the one that bothers pretty much every United fan, isn't it.
I genuinely can't believe how difficult it could be (given that we've had since about 2014 to solve it) to buy one decent player for the ring wing.
Ahead of Southampton Away
- in last 3 Home games Southampton average xG=0,93 0 which is pretty low, our midfield and defense should be able to deal with them
- although they don't create many good chances, strikers conversion rate is pretty high (>50% to shots on target, >20% of all shots - compared to United 30% and 10% respectively)
- they have conceded very low average xGA=0,33 in last 3 Home games, which means they are very good at defending (they concede only 2/3 chances per home game)
- not only they don't concede many chances, but also their keeper seems to be doing amazing job - 24/30 shots saved (80%) in the last 6 games; some of those saves were pretty great too.
You're missing the point of this thread. Those are obvious issues, which are supported by data analysis and I'm just playing with it for my own interests (excel/query/Power BI training). I'm not trying to prove those are some revolutionary ideas. I am also hoping to compare different aspects/players/teams to make some conclusions which are not so easy to spot.
Anyway, if you continue downplay all those things and just make it look like it's all "obvious" to you then you should probably ignore this thread and move on. I don't want to turn this into another "I don't need stats to see we're shit/ the only thing that matters is the league table" thread.
I feel very similar to this.
Thanks for all the great stuff you’ve posted in this thread. You’ve been impressively cool with posters giving you stick and saying they’d rather “trust their eyes”. For sure they can do that if they want (and I’m betraying my own bugbears here) but much of what some of these folks come out with is clearly coloured by their preconceptions; with some, I can’t tell if they’re stubborn or daft (also possible that I am daft, of course).
Sure, the game is “all about opinions”, but it’s very interesting to me to see this kind of objective analysis. (Those who don’t find it interesting should probably feck off out of this thread.)
As a side point, the trends in this data are encouraging I should say. Can’t wait to find out if your 1-0 prediction pans out tomorrow.
Again, great work.
Thanks for your support. I'm used to those comments, as it takes months to convince people to follow data-driven approach rather rely on instinct or a "feeling" (fortunately I don't need to do it anymore). Like I said, at the very least it's a training for me in data analysis using new tools (which unfortunately I don't do anymore at work) and chance to improve english.
Anyway, I think this was an intersting day in the EPL. Brighton 1-1 Liverpool is a great example how people view football differently. I saw that game and I'd say this is a fair result, however:
- Liverpool fans will say they had 2 goals marginally disallowed by VAR
- Brighton had one penalty missed and I'd say better chances overall
Objectively speaking, I'd say Liverpool was quite unlycky with those two disallowed goals, but Brighton also had missed a penalty so I'd say it's fair result in the end.
Two things worth noticing about Liverpool:
- They had only 6 shots in total, 2 on target. Even if we count 2 disallowed goals, it makes it 8 total shots, 4 on target. However, in that case
- Liverpool conversion rate would be rather great, 3 goals from 8 total shots/4 shots on target. Their forwards are in great form (Salah/Mane/Jota)
Second game is ManCity scoring 5 against Burnley. One thing that's obvious is they scored from each big opportunity:
I'm not taking away anything from City, but just to show another perspective and compare it to our last game vs WBA:
| Game | xG | xGA | PTS expected | Shots On Taget | Shots Total | Goals | Conversion rate (On target) | Conversion rate (Total) |
| ManUtd - WBA | 2,43 | 0,44 | 2,74 | 7 | 17 | 1 | 14% | 6% |
| ManCity - Burnley | 2,26 | 0,42 | 2,62 | 6 | 19 | 5 | 83% | 26% |
The only significant difference is in the last three columns, and I doubt we can do anything about it. We just need to gain some confidence and momentum, but looking at the last few games, I believe we're on a right track.
Good to read. I had been doing some pre-bet analysis myself and I agree that I dont see a huge danger coming our way from an attacking perspective (tempting fate).
I went for 2-0 in the end because I think they lose discipline when they go behind and I can see us getting a couple, but neither scoreline would surprise me and I'd be more than happy with either.
No Donny for me either. Fred & McTominay. Keep them at arms length and take our opportunities when they come.
My point is that the human brain is a complex and powerful computer, capable of analyses that we may not be able to articulate well enough. I.e. we can all see that we have no side. We could also take a quick look at shots on/off target over time to see that we are generally improving (slightly).
The thread is good, though so there is no need to get defensive. In occupation, there will be plenty of managers saying "you needed all that time to come to that conclusion?" so get used to it. It's a public forum.
The most interesting question, in my opinion, is: without changing anything else, what would be the difference in high-level metrics if we bought and played with a quality right winger?
Nailed it Borys!
Only kidding mate, like the thread. Just made me laugh today watching the game.
I knew this comments was coming. Football, bloody hell!Will post about the game tomorrow, a lot of interesing points. Until then, happy Comeback Sunday everybody!
Southampton 2 : 3 Manchester United (Bednarek 23'. Ward - Prowse 33'; Bruno 59', Cavani 74' 92')
29/11/20 xG=2,5, xGA=0,5
Southampton keeper superman save was amazing, but he should've buried that.
So, I told you to be optimistic after WBA game. So far so good, a lot of things that can be improved. Our strikers (Cavani aside) lack of composure seems to be holding us from going up a level. It becomes evident when you watch ManCity/Liverpool/Chelsea strikers finishing chances, same chances our strikers have on regular.
29/11/20 xG=2,5, xGA=0,5
- Possession 50%, 81% passing accuracy (558 total passes)
- 6/15 shots on target (20% conversion rate)
- game of two halves - in 1st Southampton did well to score 2/3 half chances they got, we missed some easy chances as expected; second half Southampton were quiet and we were finally able to convert chances
- I think it was a right decision to go with Greenwood as his movement alone resulted in two big chances in first half, even if he could not finish them. Unlucky to come off considering Rashford on current form has nothing over Greenwood.
- Southampton didn't have any big chances (as expected) and yet they converted what they had (as expected)
- Southampton keeper saved what he could (as expected). Some of those were easy, but the Bruno shot saved was absolutely amazing.
- happy to be proven wrong with the number of goals scored! I didn't expect Southampton to be so attacking to be honest. They were very confident though.
- in the last 3 games we had xG>2,5 which is fantastic in terms of attacking play (only ManCity had higher xG this weekend). We also had played in different setups each game. Doesn't seem like creating chances is an issue (converting them is another matter).
- we are far more balanced side with Cavani in the middle, not only he's a focal point that drags defenders around but also seems to be comforteable on the right - he even created a chance converted by Bruno from the right. We're still left wing heavy but it's an improvement, which coincided with my initial post in this thread...
- we created a lot of big chances due to winning the ball in midfield. This is a major difference to when we played Pogba - Matic midfield.
- very good sign that we were able to create big chances regularly
- van de Beek played OK but I am more surprised by his defensive side than attacking. His stats are extremely similar to Fred - 4/6 succesful tackles (=Fred), was dispossessed 2x (Fred 3x), Fred made 2 interceptions. I am starting to like him in midfield, very useful player, press resistent and helps to pass between the lines. On the other side, he doesn't look like a threat around the box. It seems like it requires attackers to be in full sync with Donny, which is not happening now.
- worth pointing out that outside of defesive stats, Fred had 95% passing accuracy, and was very involved in general. Fred is becoming a more reasurred player beside Donny too.
- Cavani assist
- Cavani goals
- Cavani hair
- In last 10 games (since dropping Pogba-Matic), we've conceded 9 goals: 2x own goal, 2x freekick, 1x corner header, 1x long ball (header duel lost), 1x penalty, 2x counter. Our main focus should be dealing with headers (McTominay could prove useful), and freekicks (not sure what's the problem here). Or maybe just not conceding fouls around the box. The positive is we're really good at defending in open play.
- second game in a row we conceded very similar freekick goal. I don't know much about goalkeeping, but it's worrying. Is it a trend, we're doing something wrong (wall/GK position) or just a fluke?
- I don't like the diamond formation. Playing on the side of diamond suits only one player and that's Pogba. Fred and van de Beek are no ball carriers, same applies to fullbacks. Maybe it's early days, but IMO we look better with two man midfield battling in center area and front 4 attacking. It's also rather narrow in midfield so not very confident about defensive side. Second issue is Matic, who's the only midfielder suited to play in front of the defense as single pivot, and seems like a good shield whenever somebody tries to get past him. Unfortunately he seems too slow to deal with runners and game intensity.
- Rashford and Greenwood form/conversion rate. They work so well to find themself in good situation only to fire at the keeper. I cannot believe we can have 3 strikers (Martial included) in such shitty form at the same time. Hopefully Marcus can get some rest against PSG.
- Bruno was very poor first half. Lost the ball a couple of times and also I would like to award him with Worst Miss of the Week Medal for this:
Southampton keeper superman save was amazing, but he should've buried that.
So, I told you to be optimistic after WBA game. So far so good, a lot of things that can be improved. Our strikers (Cavani aside) lack of composure seems to be holding us from going up a level. It becomes evident when you watch ManCity/Liverpool/Chelsea strikers finishing chances, same chances our strikers have on regular.
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Good post. I'm not too concerned about the poor finishing yet, the important thing is that we're creating decent chances. A spell of good finishing will come.
I think this is an intentional strategy employed by Ole to overload the left half space. We used to get #10, LB, LW, CF maybe even the RW (Mata does this a lot) into that left half space and try to see if quick 1-2s can result in some openings. I think we do this mostly because Martial, Rashford and to a certain extent Pogba (when he was playing at #10) all naturally want to be in that space and the tactic took advantage of that tendency. It had some amount of success but teams have learned to deal with that since by simply pulling 1-2 additional defenders there.
A proper RW I think will definitely offer balance as well having an offensive RB. I lost track of the number of times we overload the left, switch the ball over to AwB in space and he can't even get a cross in. He's been improving in this regard, so maybe we'll wait and see.
With the current personnel, I think the threat from Cavani being in the box and making those CF type runs instead of drifting out wide (as Martial does) will make this tactic more effective, but as you say, one of Martial / Rashford is forced to the right by doing this.
One other thing I'd really like to see is bringing AwB narrow, almost into the CM space when we're attacking (SHU / Pep do this) and have Dan James just waiting on the touchline for the switch of play from the left. I think this will get the best out of AwB's defensive ability while adding offensive threat from the right (teams can't just leave James 1v1 against a fullback). Image below with standard position based kit numbers rather than Utd specific ones.
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@Borys Great review of the Utd vs Southampton game. Please keep doing them. They are a great read
Yeah much improved form since the October international break. In game performances have gotten back to ~ normal, with a couple of abberations in there for whatever reason (Arsenal and Istanbul).
Conceding free kicks, it happens. Nothing to read into. Corners as well im not sure is a flaw for us, but moreso JWP just takes perfect set pieces and its hard to defend that. Own goals are shit happens events too, for the most part.
Finishing tends to normalize over time, but the one consistent thing is having Cavani there as the focal point just helps a lot in terms of variability in terms of creating chances. Suddenly crossing is useful again. His movement will find himself open to sniff out a chance (like his 2 goals), whereas most of our other forwards don't have that instinct yet. Gets us bodies in the box naturally instead of everyone wanting to tap it around outside. Its what we've been missing to get some consistency against teams who sit back especially. He's a great goalscorer but generally I'm pretty sure his finishing hasn't been an amazing thing, just pretty standard over his career. Its the movement that he excels in, and getting into the position to score a clear chance. Will give us another dimension and make games a lot simpler as we'll score earlier on (or at least create more by having that movement/focal point up top). Let Martial and Rashford drift off him and cause problems for defenders while still having Cavani keep the box occupied. Greenwood to rotate on the wings or up top for Cavani.
Conceding free kicks, it happens. Nothing to read into. Corners as well im not sure is a flaw for us, but moreso JWP just takes perfect set pieces and its hard to defend that. Own goals are shit happens events too, for the most part.
Finishing tends to normalize over time, but the one consistent thing is having Cavani there as the focal point just helps a lot in terms of variability in terms of creating chances. Suddenly crossing is useful again. His movement will find himself open to sniff out a chance (like his 2 goals), whereas most of our other forwards don't have that instinct yet. Gets us bodies in the box naturally instead of everyone wanting to tap it around outside. Its what we've been missing to get some consistency against teams who sit back especially. He's a great goalscorer but generally I'm pretty sure his finishing hasn't been an amazing thing, just pretty standard over his career. Its the movement that he excels in, and getting into the position to score a clear chance. Will give us another dimension and make games a lot simpler as we'll score earlier on (or at least create more by having that movement/focal point up top). Let Martial and Rashford drift off him and cause problems for defenders while still having Cavani keep the box occupied. Greenwood to rotate on the wings or up top for Cavani.
Quick review of all games since we dropped Pogba-Matic midfield:
Chelsea seem to be doing very well against weaker sides, not so good against decent teams. They were set up very defensively against us to not sure if that's tactics or not.
Tottenham can't get any stability. Up and down, and they had rather easy games so far.
City are a bit like Chelsea - bullying weaker sides, not doing so well against big boys. They are not conceding many goals though.
Liverpool seem to be doing "just enough" to get away with a win. They form dropped recently, not sure why.
- 23 goals scored (highest)
- 9 goals conceded (highest)
- Average GD 1,4 (second highest after Chelsea, on par with City)
- average xG diff=1,19 (second highest after City)
- overall our form is on par with city - derby should be fun to watch!
Chelsea seem to be doing very well against weaker sides, not so good against decent teams. They were set up very defensively against us to not sure if that's tactics or not.
Tottenham can't get any stability. Up and down, and they had rather easy games so far.
City are a bit like Chelsea - bullying weaker sides, not doing so well against big boys. They are not conceding many goals though.
Liverpool seem to be doing "just enough" to get away with a win. They form dropped recently, not sure why.
This tactic (of overloading left wing) is effective under three conditions, basically you mentioned all of them:I think this is an intentional strategy employed by Ole to overload the left half space. We used to get #10, LB, LW, CF maybe even the RW (Mata does this a lot) into that left half space and try to see if quick 1-2s can result in some openings. I think we do this mostly because Martial, Rashford and to a certain extent Pogba (when he was playing at #10) all naturally want to be in that space and the tactic took advantage of that tendency. It had some amount of success but teams have learned to deal with that since by simply pulling 1-2 additional defenders there.
A proper RW I think will definitely offer balance as well having an offensive RB. I lost track of the number of times we overload the left, switch the ball over to AwB in space and he can't even get a cross in. He's been improving in this regard, so maybe we'll wait and see.
With the current personnel, I think the threat from Cavani being in the box and making those CF type runs instead of drifting out wide (as Martial does) will make this tactic more effective, but as you say, one of Martial / Rashford is forced to the right by doing this.
One other thing I'd really like to see is bringing AwB narrow, almost into the CM space when we're attacking (SHU / Pep do this) and have Dan James just waiting on the touchline for the switch of play from the left. I think this will get the best out of AwB's defensive ability while adding offensive threat from the right (teams can't just leave James 1v1 against a fullback). Image below with standard position based kit numbers rather than Utd specific ones.
- Good technical players able to make 1-2 quick passes in tight areas
- A threat on the right (even a single player who can cross)
- A focal point in the box
Cavani has transformed us, we are still left wing heavy but we are capable of creating from the right.
Regarding the graph, I think this might work even with Rashford on the right or AWB (in that case we put McTominay in player #2 position). I'd give it a try against PSG. Basically what @bosnian_red said:
Manchester United 1 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain (Rashford 32'; Neymar 6' 91', Marquinhos 69') - United played 10 men since 70' after Fred the Red
2/12/20 xG=1,3 xGA=2,9
Some interesting stats:
He's also not doing well when you compare him to other GKs in EPL
Same for CL
This time Worst Miss of the Week award goes to Anthony Martial for missing a sitter well worked and delivered by Rashford. Anthony has been working really hard whole season and he's form is incredibly consistent, missing chance after chance not only for United, but also for France. Lets take a look at his miss:
It really was a top (rows) shot, congratulations Anthony!
2/12/20 xG=1,3 xGA=2,9
- possession 44%,
- 82% passing accuracy (of 450)
- 5/12 shots on target
Some interesting stats:
- We had similar xG to last game in Paris (previously 0,3 higher but we had a penalty)
- Fred had passing accuracy of 90% which is highest in the team (=Lindelof); McTominay was second with 89%. They played it safe but I think it's worth pointing out they were rather OK with the the ball (no miscontrols too).
- Scott McTominay had the the highest number of succesful dribbles - 4/4, and the highest number of tackles 3/6
- Low number of succesful tackles for the whole team suggest we really couldn't handle PSG forwards
- 2017/18 +9,1
- 2018/19 +0,9
- 2019/20 +2,1
- 2020/21 -1,0
He's also not doing well when you compare him to other GKs in EPL
Same for CL
This time Worst Miss of the Week award goes to Anthony Martial for missing a sitter well worked and delivered by Rashford. Anthony has been working really hard whole season and he's form is incredibly consistent, missing chance after chance not only for United, but also for France. Lets take a look at his miss:
It really was a top (rows) shot, congratulations Anthony!
@Borys I wasn't aware of the expected saves stat. De Gea in 17/18 was astonishingly good.
First of all let me say that you have obviously invested a great amount of time and effort producing these statistics. Having said that, I have zero interest in Xg. Means nothing apart from being another confusing metric
And in this modern world we live in, data, or more correctly information is absolutely vital for success in any field.
Data is data. Information that can be utilised to improve decision making is key.
The primary elements are:
Observe, Acquire, Deduce and Analyse.
It would be extremely interesting to understand how and what kind of data Manchester United use.
And in this modern world we live in, data, or more correctly information is absolutely vital for success in any field.
Data is data. Information that can be utilised to improve decision making is key.
The primary elements are:
Observe, Acquire, Deduce and Analyse.
It would be extremely interesting to understand how and what kind of data Manchester United use.
Fantastic thread, Borys. Many thanks!
I have my doubts about the utility of stats in this context cobbled together by human beings, such as “dribbles” (not at all dribbles are created equal) but any new insights into a match performance are always a welcome contribution to the discussion here.
Looking at that still photo of Martial missing the sitter is painful. What we be more useful IMO than just saying he missed an xG of whatever numerical value we assign to it is WHY he missed that shot, so that he can be instructed on how to ensure that he converts on the same shot in the future. At this elite level, it’s obviously not a matter of technique, but of mentality. Much of what works and doesn’t work in terms of separating an average player from an elite player comes down to mentality. Can data be of any use or relevance in this regard?
I have my doubts about the utility of stats in this context cobbled together by human beings, such as “dribbles” (not at all dribbles are created equal) but any new insights into a match performance are always a welcome contribution to the discussion here.
Looking at that still photo of Martial missing the sitter is painful. What we be more useful IMO than just saying he missed an xG of whatever numerical value we assign to it is WHY he missed that shot, so that he can be instructed on how to ensure that he converts on the same shot in the future. At this elite level, it’s obviously not a matter of technique, but of mentality. Much of what works and doesn’t work in terms of separating an average player from an elite player comes down to mentality. Can data be of any use or relevance in this regard?
Yeah I just learned about it too, when taking a deep dive into goalkeeper stats. And yeah, he was top top shot stopper. Even if you take that as a one-off, it still shows he's always on the posotive side (meaning doing better than statistical keeper). This season so far is different unfortunately.
Well I wouldn't say it means nothing. Any data needs to be analyzed in context. A good example would be a post from another thread, where you can see how we've improved defensively since dropping Pogba-Matic duo. We're still conceding goals, but they are low quality chances so I don't see how buying better CB/DM will solve this issue (as a lot of people seem to suggest). Unless people believe you can go through a game without conceding a chance.
Not sure what our map was against Istanbul, but probably similar. Our best balanced lineup for sure as the only times we make progress up the pitch on the right is when Rashford is out there. We can get normal progression and movement on the left with Martial, but Rashfords showing that only he can do that right side role properly.
Interesting, I forgot to check that. Seems in the game vs PSG we've been the most balanced so far this season- front 4 players heatmaps:
Big improvement. Agree on Rashford, looks better on the right, not so predictable and has a decent cross. Still far from his optimum, but more useful than on the left.
Yeah I agree about that, low % of converting chances into goals certainly looks like a mentality/confidence issue. There is an interesting metric which calculates Goals-Expected Goals (I guess that's cummulative xG). If you're on positive side (+), means you're doing better than avarage (statistically) striker at converting chances into goals. If you're on negative side (-), means you've been unlucky or just out of form. So I'd expect all top teams strikers to be on the positive side at least. I put it all together using fbref tables:
I also made a quick comparison on how our strikers performed in that metrics in previous two seasons:
Conclusions:
- there are 6 strikers in top EPL clubs who are doing worse than expected, 3 of them being Man United (Martial 2nd worst in that tally, Greenwood 4th, Rashford 5th)
- there might be two ways to look at those numbers compared between two seasons: 1) Martial and Greenwood overachieved last season (2nd and 3rd in the whole ranking based on goals-expected goals ranking) and in that case it would be unreasonable to expect them to remain on the same level or 2) They are just exceptional strikers in a very, very bad moment. In either case, we definitely should back them up for the time being as it's very unlikely they will continue missing chances. In terms of Martial, 2 years ago he was on the level of 3,6 so he is a really good striker overall. Definitely a mentality/confidence issue with him. For Greenwood it's not enough data to tell.
- Rashford is on the level of -0,2 currently, last season he got -0,2, two seasons ago +0,6. He circulates around 0, meaning he is just "average" striker, nothing special and there is nothing to suggest he will improve.
One clear pattern that emerges (for games when we conceded early) is that in first 3 epl games we conceded goals from BIG chances (top 3 graphs). Since we've dropped Matic- Pogba duo, the situation is quite different. We concede from very low quality chances (bottom 3 graphs).
Other than those 6 matches:
Other than those 6 matches:
- Martial own goal (PSG)
- 2x counter (Besiktas)
- 1x freekick
- 1x penalty
- last night 3 goals
Very insightful posting, Borys.
I still struggle with what to make of such data when it questions what we see (or think we see, of course) with the naked eye.
Such as the stat re De Gea on shot stopping. I can’t recall many shots this season that De Gea should have saved that other keepers like Pope or whoever would likely have saved, yet I can’t doubt the validity of your stats. But I definitely wouldn’t say that De Gea is the second to worst keeper in the PL. Yet we can reasonably point to certain intangible qualities that he’s never developed that, at least in my judgment, he should have by now. “Command of the box” and related aspects of a top keeper’s game are not in his locker. For a number of reasons I’m open to idea of transitioning to Henderson, but I’m reluctant to go there if the club is willing to invest in 2-3 more players to complete the rebuild. A David De Gea who believes he’s on the cusp of great things, as he was at the beginning of his tenure with United, is potentially a best of breed keeper. But with the chaos of the last few seasons he’s clearly lost the sharp edge he was once had. I don’t know how one would measure any of that.
At any rate, please keep up the great work. Thanks!
I still struggle with what to make of such data when it questions what we see (or think we see, of course) with the naked eye.
Such as the stat re De Gea on shot stopping. I can’t recall many shots this season that De Gea should have saved that other keepers like Pope or whoever would likely have saved, yet I can’t doubt the validity of your stats. But I definitely wouldn’t say that De Gea is the second to worst keeper in the PL. Yet we can reasonably point to certain intangible qualities that he’s never developed that, at least in my judgment, he should have by now. “Command of the box” and related aspects of a top keeper’s game are not in his locker. For a number of reasons I’m open to idea of transitioning to Henderson, but I’m reluctant to go there if the club is willing to invest in 2-3 more players to complete the rebuild. A David De Gea who believes he’s on the cusp of great things, as he was at the beginning of his tenure with United, is potentially a best of breed keeper. But with the chaos of the last few seasons he’s clearly lost the sharp edge he was once had. I don’t know how one would measure any of that.
At any rate, please keep up the great work. Thanks!
To be honest I don't think I've posted anything that questions what we see with the naked eye. I'm trying to show another perspective but there are some people questioning De Gea already, and probably all posters are annoyed with Martial conversion rate.
Anyway, the only claim that might be considered as "controversial" is that I believe our midfield and back 4 is doing really good job in the last 11 games. We create enough to score, and we don't concede a lot of high quality chances. Obviously it doesn't transform into high victory every week, but the basics for a good performing team are there.
One pattern that is clear to me, our overall performance level (including goalkeeping and chances conversion flaws) is enough for the smaller sides, not enough for top teams. But I'm not sure what can be done about those issues we have currently. Martial will improve, I'm pretty sure he's having a bad spell. I'm worried about De Gea though. He's not the reason we've lost any games so far this season, but he's not really keeping opposition from scoring. And as shot stopping was his best attribute, he's a bit meh overall this season and partially the reason we're little shaky at the back IMO. Makes me wonder if there would be any difference if somebody else was in the goal.
He might turn this around mind you, but it will require big improvement from him. Or quite a bit of luck, which doesn't seem to be on our side these days.
@Borys
I hope most posters agree our defenders and midfielders are getting the job done. There’s the occasional blip, such as on the corner kick v Soton and Fred’s display v PSG and Pogba overall of course, but all things considered the job has gotten done by our defenders and midfielders, at least after our disastrous start to the season.
The breakdown has been on the front line and I’m sure the stats back that up. This may be beyond our ability to answer, but I’m curious how such data can be used by the coaching staff to improve performances. It’s one thing to diagnose the patient, but another thing to administer the treatment and cure the patient. How do we cure this particular patient?
I hope most posters agree our defenders and midfielders are getting the job done. There’s the occasional blip, such as on the corner kick v Soton and Fred’s display v PSG and Pogba overall of course, but all things considered the job has gotten done by our defenders and midfielders, at least after our disastrous start to the season.
The breakdown has been on the front line and I’m sure the stats back that up. This may be beyond our ability to answer, but I’m curious how such data can be used by the coaching staff to improve performances. It’s one thing to diagnose the patient, but another thing to administer the treatment and cure the patient. How do we cure this particular patient?
West Ham United 1 - 3 Manchester United ( Souček 38'; Pogba 65' Greenwood 68' Rashford 78')
xG=2,0 xGA=2,2
"Lack of quality in United game continues to encourage West Ham" - I heard this from one of the comentators and that's the best description of our terrible first half, and why subs made us not only more dangerous but also why West Ham eased off I believe.
Miss of the Week Award this time goes to Rashford. He did strike that at full speed and hit the post, so feels kind of forced, but overall he has deserved to be on the same level as Bruno who already has one.
Overall xG stats for last 10 games:
Big week ahead. City are in great form so we definitely need to raise our level, expecially considering we've struggling against big teams this season.
xG=2,0 xGA=2,2
- Possession 60%, Passing accuracy 86% (641 passes)
- Shots On target 6/15 (WHU 6/17)
"Lack of quality in United game continues to encourage West Ham" - I heard this from one of the comentators and that's the best description of our terrible first half, and why subs made us not only more dangerous but also why West Ham eased off I believe.
- feels like we were set up to play low-energy game ahead of important clash with RB
- only positive is we've won despite being on negative side of xG diff (for the second time this season, first was BHA) - better converion rate (20%/50% to shots on target); some really nice goals too although keeper had his hand on the ball each time
- Ole made some good changes resting Bruno and Rashford. One thing I cannot understand is why the hell would he play Pogba in deep midfield and van de Beek as the most advanced midfielder. From what we've seen so far this season, it should be the other way around.
- Ole plays Pogba in deep midfield=we concede big chances (not that I blame everyhing on Paul but there is a pattern which I mentioned in one of the last posts that we tend to concede big chances with him starting in midfield); McTominay seems to be half a player alongside Pogs again
- van de Beek is no threat on his own - doesn't looks like an attacking midfielder, but certainly looks like a decent CM. Still there are question marks whether he is "athletic" enough for this league but I'm optimistic.
- Pogba did well to win 5/6 aerial duels, nothing more special about his performance, the goal was stunning though. Again why don't we play him in more attacking role?
- Martial form is shocking, I have no idea what happened to him really. 1 dribble, misscontrolled 3x (most of all players), dispossessed 3x (most of all players), lost 2 headers.
- Another goal conceded from corner.
Miss of the Week Award this time goes to Rashford. He did strike that at full speed and hit the post, so feels kind of forced, but overall he has deserved to be on the same level as Bruno who already has one.
Overall xG stats for last 10 games:
Big week ahead. City are in great form so we definitely need to raise our level, expecially considering we've struggling against big teams this season.
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