Manchester United vs Lens (Sat 5th August, 12:45 UK time)

I didn't go to a single game last season as I'm mostly based in Amsterdam. But one thing was clear for me today, seeing a game live really brings our strengths and weaknesses to life.

Our right side is a worry. Bruno is a different class of player on and off the ball.
Our right side is terrible for attack. Until Antony starts aiming a little lower! I feel like he should aim bottom left corner and the ball will land in the middle
If we’re making him stand 10 yards back then there was literally no point getting rid of de Gea.
If you think that’s the only difference between him and de gea, lord bless ya. De gea never came off his line when a attacker was approaching to close the angle and he couldn’t pass well
 
The team seemed quite functional to me. We played well as such, the defence was sorted and comfortable with each other. Antony and garnacho were great on the wings, bruno and rashford were good too.

Only two points of concern. We likely have still not figured out how mount is meant to play in this system, it's likely that he will be pulled back 10 yards and Sancho seems to confused at what his role is in the squad. Is he a right wing back up, left wing back up, false 9 or bruno's back up?
 
Calling it Ole ball isn't correct. Ole Ball was us choosing to play a mid block to protect our backline, then spring counter attacks on the break, with Rashford being the main and sometimes only outlet.

There are about 3 major differences:

1. We are pressing high and effectively. We made it impossible for Lens to play out and they struggled to truly get into our midfield.
2. We are better at keeping the ball across our backline
3. Where Ole attempted to consistently try and play through the middle, in possession our aim is to try and get the ball out wide.

The effect of these differences are clear. Us consistently winning the ball high provides us with the ability to play in the opposition's half most of the time, whilst also keeping them away from ours ( apart from the last 20 minutes of the game). It's also far more difficult for the opposition to play through us due to this, because whereas last season, a strong press could be beaten due to players like Martial, Eriksen and Sancho not having the energy or agility to press consistently, in addition to De Gea forcing our defence to slightly deeper due to his inability to sweep and unwillingness to play on the ball, now we can sustain that press and force the opposition to lose possession early.

Under Ole we also had a penchant for overplaying at times due to us trying to be overly precise since we were constantly trying to play through the middle. Quickly moving the ball and playing through the flanks stretches teams and gives our wide men opportunities to attack. Right now, a lack of focal point has meant that there hasn't really been an option in the box to present multiple attacking options using this method, leading to our wide mean using more shooting opportunities, which they haven't been great at.

It's more similar to Liverpool, particularly their 2020 version that the expected Guardiola model.
AD 1. Lens had a few turnovers that turned in semi dangerous counters in the first half. They seemed happy to sit back as we were not creating chances when building from the back.
AD 2. Onana is a huge upgrade, but in general this aspect relies heavily on Martinez to play from the back. This will be easily nullified.

I don't buy that setup yet. Opponents will sit back against us, with first line of defence just in front of back 5, effectively cutting them off from front 5 which will be high up the pitch. This will cause a lot of turnovers as we make more and more risky passes from the back to attacking formation.
 
If we’re making him stand 10 yards back then there was literally no point getting rid of de Gea.
De Gea would have been in the 6 yard box so Onana would still be very advanced and DeGea still couldnt kick a ball out.
 
What was the chant just as the clock ticked over at 90 minutes?

Was it for Onana to the tune of No Limit by 2 Unlimited?
It was the Lens fans, and they were brilliantly entertaining throughout the match. Spoke to a few before the game and they are absolutely buzzing for champions league football next season.
 
Challenge, not triumph itself. I am of the view that we can and will put in a proper title challenge, but that in the end we will fall short, second or third to City.

I wonder. Here's one way of looking at it: We arguably have 6 players who have proven they're starting XI calibre for a title contender: Bruno, Rashford, Casemiro, Shaw, Martinez and Varane. That seems about right for a team who finished third. And we arguably have 4-5 players who you could hope have a real chance of showing that level this season - Onana, Mount, Antony, Højlund and maybe Garnacho. If 2 or 3 of them does, and we avoid any lengthy injuries to key players, who knows? Conversely, we could lose a couple of the established key players to long injuries and see all 5 of those turn in disappointing seasons, in which case we'll probably be fighting for the EL spots.

Very hard season to guess, this. So many teams you feel could develop in either direction. But it does look like more of a two-tier league than recently, not that many teams in the middle any more. There are maybe nine with a real potential to compete for high places, while very few of the remaining look like certs to stay out of the relegation fight.
 
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I wonder. Here's one way of looking at it: We arguably have 6 players who have proven they're starting XI calibre for a title contender: Bruno, Rashford, Casemiro, Shaw, Martinez and Varane. That seems about right for a team who finished third. And we arguably have 4-5 players who you could hope have a real chance of showing that level this season - Onana, Mount, Antony, Højlund and maybe Garnacho. If 2 or 3 of them does, and we avoid any lengthy injuries to key players, who knows? Conversely, we could lose a couple of the established key players to long injuries and see all 5 of those turn in disappointing seasons, in which case we'll probably be fighting for the EL spots.

Very hard season to guess, this. So many teams you feel could develop in either direction. But it does look like more of a two-tier league than recently, not that many teams in the middle any more. There are maybe nine with a real potential to compete for high places, while very few of the remaining look like certs to stay out of the relegation fight.

We do have enough title challenge caliber players now, but it’s an open question as to whether ETH can get them to perform consistently at a high level. And we do need fortune to smile on us. No crazy multiple suspensions of our best player. We’ll have injuries, but hopefully nothing too serious. And our new keeper has to learn the PL ropes quickly and not get lobbed more than once or twice.

But I’m no so sure about your breakdown of the tiers in the PL. After City, Arsenal and United there’s a very strong upper-middle tier, then you have a very decent middle tier of clubs like Brighton, Spurs and Brentford, and clubs lower than that apart from the newly promoted sides are capable of a puncher’s chance but we’ll see if they slip into a relegation battle.
 
We do have enough title challenge caliber players now, but it’s an open question as to whether ETH can get them to perform consistently at a high level. And we do need fortune to smile on us. No crazy multiple suspensions of our best player. We’ll have injuries, but hopefully nothing too serious. And our new keeper has to learn the PL ropes quickly and not get lobbed more than once or twice.

But I’m no so sure about your breakdown of the tiers in the PL. After City, Arsenal and United there’s a very strong upper-middle tier, then you have a very decent middle tier of clubs like Brighton, Spurs and Brentford, and clubs lower than that apart from the newly promoted sides are capable of a puncher’s chance but we’ll see if they slip into a relegation battle.

Heh, I guess that brings me back to my other point; how many teams are difficult to judge this year.

For my part, I consider City, United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle, Spurs, Brighton and Villa strong enough to fight for European qualification this season. The latter three most probably for EL or Conference League, but I don't think a top 4 challenge could be ruled out.

For the remainder, who's really good enough that you'd be confident there's not a realistic chance they could well drop down to join the fight against relegation? Arguably no one, as far as I can see. Brentford's been good the past two seasons, but they have significantly outperformed expectations, and don't really have a squad that more or less safely puts them there. Fulham, who thought they'd finish that high last season, and who's to say they won't revert to more the kind of position that was widely expected? Wolves are clearly heading south, and while Palace has a long tradition of finishing 11th-13th it doesn't take much to slip down a notch, and they just lost their best player.

And then there's West Ham, which typefy those "difficult to judge" issues. They have (or will have) a pretty decent squad, hugely underperformed points-wise on their underlying numbers last season and are coming off a European title, but then again there's a clear sense of having stalled and they have regressed personell-wise this summer. They barely scraped out of the relegation battle late last season, who's to say they won't end up in it again?

Of course, some teams will end up having middle of the road campaigns, but I really can't see any of those 11 teams mounting a European challenge, and I also can't see any of the top 9 teams dropping to the relegation battle. That looks like a pretty clear two-tier division to me. It's not normally like that. Only a year ago, I would have thought of teams like Leicester, West Ham, Newcastle and Wolves as likely mid-table teams who could conceivably challenge for Europe, but who might also drop down to fight against relegation.
 
Heh, I guess that brings me back to my other point; how many teams are difficult to judge this year.

For my part, I consider City, United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle, Spurs, Brighton and Villa strong enough to fight for European qualification this season. The latter three most probably for EL or Conference League, but I don't think a top 4 challenge could be ruled out.

For the remainder, who's really good enough that you'd be confident there's not a realistic chance they could well drop down to join the fight against relegation? Arguably no one, as far as I can see. Brentford's been good the past two seasons, but they have significantly outperformed expectations, and don't really have a squad that more or less safely puts them there. Fulham, who thought they'd finish that high last season, and who's to say they won't revert to more the kind of position that was widely expected? Wolves are clearly heading south, and while Palace has a long tradition of finishing 11th-13th it doesn't take much to slip down a notch, and they just lost their best player.

And then there's West Ham, which typefy those "difficult to judge" issues. They have (or will have) a pretty decent squad, hugely underperformed points-wise on their underlying numbers last season and are coming off a European title, but then again there's a clear sense of having stalled and they have regressed personell-wise this summer. They barely scraped out of the relegation battle late last season, who's to say they won't end up in it again?

Of course, some teams will end up having middle of the road campaigns, but I really can't see any of those 11 teams mounting a European challenge, and I also can't see any of the top 9 teams dropping to the relegation battle. That looks like a pretty clear two-tier division to me. It's not normally like that. Only a year ago, I would have thought of teams like Leicester, West Ham, Newcastle and Wolves as likely mid-table teams who could conceivably challenge for Europe, but who might also drop down to fight against relegation.

There's always someone knocking on the door of the top six, which I suppose should now be regarded as the top seven considering the Conference League. A few years ago it was Leicester City and then last year Newcastle joined the party. But let's put the PL into three buckets -- 1) those with at least an outside shot at the PL title; 2) those who have no realistic shot at the PL title but who can be expected to put in a proper challenge for a EL or CL (Conference League) spot; and 3) everyone else. This is how it usually breaks down, although I suppose it would be ghoulish to lump relegation fodder like Luton Town with, say, Crystal Palace, who should hang around the 10-12 spot for most of the season and not be bothered with a relegation worry.

Shot at the PL title (in the order I expect it be by season's end): City, United, Arsenal and Liverpool. It's hard to see anyone else enter this equation. One could argue that Newcastle has a better shot than Liverpool but I just don't see it.

Proper Challenge at a EL and CL (Conference League) spot: In alpha order...Brentford, Brighton, Chelsea, Newcastle, Spurs and Villa.

And then everyone else, including West Ham, who I just don't see cracking the top ten this season. As I understand it, only one club qualifies for the CL and if that's correct then only 7 of these 10 clubs will qualify for European competitions next season. Addressing your point, the competition within the PL for EL and CL spots will be ferocious as the quality of midtable clubs is very high this season. So hard to say, but if I had to bet my life's savings I'd bet on Newcastle, Chelsea and Villa to round out the top seven, although I can't deny that I have my doubts about Pochettino at Stamford Bridge.

But after that, the bottom drops steeply although there are tricky clubs like Fulham and West Ham who should be capable of turning over a top seven club.
 
There's always someone knocking on the door of the top six, which I suppose should now be regarded as the top seven considering the Conference League. A few years ago it was Leicester City and then last year Newcastle joined the party. But let's put the PL into three buckets -- 1) those with at least an outside shot at the PL title; 2) those who have no realistic shot at the PL title but who can be expected to put in a proper challenge for a EL or CL (Conference League) spot; and 3) everyone else. This is how it usually breaks down, although I suppose it would be ghoulish to lump relegation fodder like Luton Town with, say, Crystal Palace, who should hang around the 10-12 spot for most of the season and not be bothered with a relegation worry.

Shot at the PL title (in the order I expect it be by season's end): City, United, Arsenal and Liverpool. It's hard to see anyone else enter this equation. One could argue that Newcastle has a better shot than Liverpool but I just don't see it.

Proper Challenge at a EL and CL (Conference League) spot: In alpha order...Brentford, Brighton, Chelsea, Newcastle, Spurs and Villa.

And then everyone else, including West Ham, who I just don't see cracking the top ten this season. As I understand it, only one club qualifies for the CL and if that's correct then only 7 of these 10 clubs will qualify for European competitions next season. Addressing your point, the competition within the PL for EL and CL spots will be ferocious as the quality of midtable clubs is very high this season. So hard to say, but if I had to bet my life's savings I'd bet on Newcastle, Chelsea and Villa to round out the top seven, although I can't deny that I have my doubts about Pochettino at Stamford Bridge.

But after that, the bottom drops steeply although there are tricky clubs like Fulham and West Ham who should be capable of turning over a top seven club.

We're partly talking past each other here, as you define "midtable clubs" differently from me. To me, that's a club that isn't contending for a European place.

But otherwise it sounds like we broadly agree, except I stand by my point about the disappearance of a true middle - ie, teams you don't expect to either challenge for Europe or have a significant likelihood of getting involved in the relegation fight.

I really don't see Brentford as a team that has a realistic chance to still be in contention for a European place when we get to the last few rounds. Also, I don't think it makes sense with that group of four at the top. City is in a class of its own - no one else has more than a faint outside chance of challenging for the title. Teams like Liverpool and United are closer to Chelsea or Newcastle than they are to City.

Anyway, I'm, pretty sure several teams will prove both of our assumptions seriously wrong. :)