Heh, I guess that brings me back to my other point; how many teams are difficult to judge this year.
For my part, I consider City, United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle, Spurs, Brighton and Villa strong enough to fight for European qualification this season. The latter three most probably for EL or Conference League, but I don't think a top 4 challenge could be ruled out.
For the remainder, who's really good enough that you'd be confident there's not a realistic chance they could well drop down to join the fight against relegation? Arguably no one, as far as I can see. Brentford's been good the past two seasons, but they have significantly outperformed expectations, and don't really have a squad that more or less safely puts them there. Fulham, who thought they'd finish that high last season, and who's to say they won't revert to more the kind of position that was widely expected? Wolves are clearly heading south, and while Palace has a long tradition of finishing 11th-13th it doesn't take much to slip down a notch, and they just lost their best player.
And then there's West Ham, which typefy those "difficult to judge" issues. They have (or will have) a pretty decent squad, hugely underperformed points-wise on their underlying numbers last season and are coming off a European title, but then again there's a clear sense of having stalled and they have regressed personell-wise this summer. They barely scraped out of the relegation battle late last season, who's to say they won't end up in it again?
Of course, some teams will end up having middle of the road campaigns, but I really can't see any of those 11 teams mounting a European challenge, and I also can't see any of the top 9 teams dropping to the relegation battle. That looks like a pretty clear two-tier division to me. It's not normally like that. Only a year ago, I would have thought of teams like Leicester, West Ham, Newcastle and Wolves as likely mid-table teams who could conceivably challenge for Europe, but who might also drop down to fight against relegation.