Not true at all. What are you basing this on?
Manchester United record net loss of £115.5million in latest financial year
- Thread starter UnofficialDevil
- Start date
Because every player who doesn’t play for Manchester United is obviously better than every player who does play for Manchester United. It’s rule number one of this Manchester United forum.
Bookies/market odds and my own opinion. If you know better go make your fortune.
And I’m asking you to explain your opinion, hence this being a football forum.
I actually didn’t realise who I was responding to so I’ll stop it there. He’s the most pessimistic United fan I ever met.
I think 5 teams are currently better than us and underlying statistics back this up (Chelsea closest). Who do you think are the 4 favourites?
It's just basic maths. Why enter a thread around financial numbers if you can't comprehend a discussion around probabilities?
Arsenal included in your 5? Didn't we just beat them
Didn't we get battered by Brentford? If only football was so simple.
Another presumed millionaire who knows better than the markets. What's your top 4 then?
Another system putting our chances at 25% currently:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/
It is hilarious that you come across that you have this well-informed opinion and all you are doing is basing it on what the bookies tell you.
Agreed. We won't see the club spending at the same level as this summer. It will be a return to normal which is approx 100m a summer I'd say, which our cash flow in normal times can support.
The salary piece is hard to analyze. We have added very expensive players in the last few years. But ole dramatically reduced salary bill in the early part of his tenure. I think we are at a slightly elevated salary level but I think removing Ronaldo probably makes it quite normal. Whenever we look at our salary to turnover it seems quite conservative internationally and at least in line domestically, and that is versus some domestic clubs with artificial top lines. Vs Liverpool and arsenal is the fairest comparison for us
Edit: worth adding my philosophy on our spending is that anything over 80-120m is borrowed against the future or spent from past savings. We had some quiet summers in the past several years and that had given a good cash cushion as you referenced. I think this summer's extra spend is more a dump of cash than a massive borrow against future spending power. I'd have to sit down and do the maths but I wouldn't be shocked to find we could spend our normal amount, 80-120m, for the next 5 years assuming wages stay the same and revenue stays the same. I could well be wrong there without doing some numbers. I don't think anyone thinks we can spend 220m every summer, but we never have done this so shouldn't be our base case
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I also have eyes which tell me that our recent wins have not been convincing. What's your top 4 then?
And then we made multiple signings and dropped multiple players.
We aren't the same team.
Chelsea have even had to sack a manager and you still think they are so much better.
Don't get me wrong itl be close, but not this absolute certainty you seem to think it is
Not possible. if thing remained the same profit wise (which would be the case as per your scenario), then the club would produce about 500m in cash profits in the next 5 years, which would not support a 500m net spend, capex of 100m, dividends of 100m, and interest payments (which will increase) of 100m. The club would need a bank balance now of about 400m to cover the shortfall that would arise.
Things need to change for the better. We need to be winning and contending, growing revenues faster than costs and be quick about it.
Can you point out where I said I thought Chelsea were 'so much better' or talked in certainties about us or anyone else?
We cannot afford to keep spending big but at the same time this squad is still not ready to be a perennial domestic contender/CL participant. Simply put, more investment is required but yes, the investment needs to be shrewd. As i've always said, there are many many players under the radar that would not cost much at all but would significantly improve us, its all about taking the time to look properly. We could also utilise our academy more and give the great ones more game time instead of going out and spending so much on squad players. That is the whole point of having a scouting network and an academy system. These two investments are supposed to help us save money in the long run but we barely utilise either.
Nobody expected Barca to spend big yet they did. Now they even made profit. I’m not a financial genius but it is weird to say the least.
Man Utd is heading towards disaster just like Barca is.
Man Utd is heading towards disaster just like Barca is.
And a ball progressive midfielder of the class ETH wants - or needs - is also costly. Thats £200 million, without the right back - but we've still got AWB under contract, along with Phil Jones, Bailly, Lindelof, Tuanzebe and Brandon Williams still under contract I think? Surely we can raise £50 million in sales from that?
Which are those certainties in your opinion? Apart from City IMO there isn’t a single team at the moment guaranteed to finish top four at the end of the year, including Pool.
Barcelona have sold their future earnings. They are absolutely screwed. Manchester United’s figures are nowhere near the state Barcelona’s have been for the last decade.
No one is a certainty but City are close enough like you say. I think we're the least likely of the top 6 which seems to have annoyed some here (who haven't been able to actually argue otherwise).
If you said I'll give you a million if you name the end of season top 4 in any order, I'm not picking us right now. Would you?
Not wanting to argue is not the same as not being able to argue.
I would. City Liverpool us and spurs
Ronaldo, Maguire and DDG leaving would drop those wages by 60m or so. Need to then get rid of Shaw, Martial, AWB etc. Must get CL for higher revenue of 50-60m. Then cancel dividends and lower salary for top management and directors.
Good luck getting the glazers to stop taking dividends. They took £30m out despite us making a loss’s. Utter disgrace
Does your plan consist of Tom Heaton being first choice goalkeeper because I’m not sure that would help matters.
Given the state Chelsea are at the moment and changing managers early on I wouldn't bet on them finishing in front of us. Arsenal and Spurs as well - I wouldn't count on them finishing in top four, especially in WC year where rotation will matter and Arsenal squad is on the short side.
We have issues obviously but in no particular order I'd bet on City, Pool, United and probably Spurs due to Conte finishing top 4 this year.
Why would a ball progressive midfielder be expensive? As long as you are not buying brand names like Frenkie, it shouldn't cost that much. You need to search out the Martinez and Malacia equivalents.
Our players will actually cost money to sell due to their wages. Just like Alexis. We should stop thinking about how much we can recoup from selling. Be happy that we can even give them away.
yes you are right it doesn't quite add up, but small changes would get us there. ronaldos salary into transfers for example.
also - some revenue from sales would be required ie. we can't spend 100m net but most clubs get help from sales... for some reason that is just beyond this club. the worst element of the club. success helps there too i suppose
What's the mancunian slang for levers?
Abu Dhabi.
The last time I did the maths, which was pre-Covid, we could afford a net transfer spend of £105m - £110m. During Covid, we should have spent much less than we did as our revenues took a big hit while there was no reduction in salaries. I am certain that we have spent a big chunk of future transfer funds; the question is now whether we spend a lot less than £110m net during one season, or say go for an average of £90m net per season over say 3 seasons. Of course the Glazers could take the hit by not receiving dividends for several years but I can't see that happening.
Regarding salaries, United's were in a reasonable state prior to the signing of Ronaldo, Varane and Sancho, which added close to £60m per season. It looks to me as though the incomings this season probably add up to a similar amount to the outgoing salaries (I don't have a sense of whether Antony will earn £6m or £10m) once you include all the various loans this season and last, though the lack of CL will see a 25% reduction in the basic salaries of most first team players.
Some elite clubs, Real Madrid for instance, pay very high salaries to their stars but relatively low wages to some of their 25 man squad. United have recently moved to a situation in which very few players earn under £100K per week in a CL season, £80K if not in CL, while stars are on £300K+.
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Our net worth (balance sheet) on paper is currently £127m. Given the spend this summer £200m and a lack of champions league revenue our balance sheet will come close to zero or even become negative (insolvent) on paper by June 2023.
The situation is dire with interest rates set to hit record levels.
The glazers have no means of borrowing as our current loan/equity ratio is way too high ie 600m/127m so a serious investment of some form is required between now and March.
Worrying times!
The situation is dire with interest rates set to hit record levels.
The glazers have no means of borrowing as our current loan/equity ratio is way too high ie 600m/127m so a serious investment of some form is required between now and March.
Worrying times!
Hmm, didn't people say the same type of thing when Conte took over spurs lying 9th last November, and we were fourth, and he took them to the Champions League while we ended up 6th, so I can't see that as an issue for Potter.