Livestream out of Syria

This quote by Joe Biden is a couple of weeks old, and the White House did kind of "apologize" for it (not surprisingly), but it very much sums up what I have been saying in this thread for 2 years.
The idea of identifying a moderate middle has been a chase America has been engaged in for a long time. We Americans think in every country in transition there is a Thomas Jefferson hiding beside some rock – or a James Madison beyond one sand dune. The fact of the matter is the ability to identify a moderate middle in Syria was – there was no moderate middle because the moderate middle are made up of shopkeepers, not soldiers – they are made up of people who in fact have ordinary elements of the middle class of that country.

And what happened was – and history will record this because I’m finding that former administration officials, as soon as they leave write books which I think is inappropriate, but anyway, (laughs) no I’m serious – I do think it’s inappropriate at least , you know, give the guy a chance to get out of office. And what my constant cry was that our biggest problem is our allies – our allies in the region were our largest problem in Syria. The Turks were great friends – and I have the greatest relationship with Erdogan, which I just spent a lot of time with – the Saudis, the Emiratis, etc. What were they doing? They were so determined to take down Assad and essentially have a proxy Sunni-Shia war, what did they do? They poured hundreds of millions of dollars and tens, thousands of tons of weapons into anyone who would fight against Assad except that the people who were being supplied were Al Nusra and Al Qaeda and the extremist elements of jihadis coming from other parts of the world.
I do think he missed an important name though when talking about the countries that directly funded and armed those "rebels".
 
Pretty amazing (but long) article here by the released journalist Theo Padnos on his time in captivity in Syria - http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/28/m...t_tnt_20141029&nlid=40184156&tntemail0=y&_r=0

The gist of it - he crossed into Syria from Antakya with three Syrian guys he stupidly trusted who then beat him and tied him up. He escaped to the FSA who promptly imprisoned, beat and tortured him before handing him over to Jabhat al-Nusra, who did the same before releasing him two years later.

A couple of key points:

The FSA obviously regard the Nusra Front as allies:

I returned to the F.S.A. troops. One told me that his unit had recently traveled to Jordan to receive training from American forces in fighting groups like the Nusra Front.

“Really?” I said. “The Americans? I hope it was good training.”

“Certainly, very,” he replied.

The fighters stared at me. I stared at them.

After a few moments, I asked, “About this business of fighting Jebhat al Nusra?”

“Oh, that,” one said. “We lied to the Americans about that.”

There is no real difference between the Nusra Front and the Islamic State in terms of 'moderation'/'extremism', etc. Padnos claims the real dispute was over the revenues from the Syrian oilfields.

“Your practice of Islam is exactly the same as ISIS — you admire the same scholars and interpret the Quran just as they do?”
“Yes,” they agreed. “All of this is true.”

“And it’s true,” I said, “that when you joined Al Qaeda, in the early goings of the revolution, ISIS did not exist?”

“Yes, this is so,” the fighters agreed...

...The real issue between the Nusra Front and the Islamic State was that their commanders, former friends from Iraq, were unable to agree on how to share the revenue from the oil fields in eastern Syria that the Nusra Front had conquered.

My own opinion is that the main difference between the two is strategic, Jabhat al-Nusra and al-Qaeda in general preferring a decentralised model in which local outfits act autonomously, whereas the Islamic State is all about capturing and governing territory, and expanding. But in any case, stuff like this should really sound the death knell for the classification of the Syrian rebels along 'moderate'/'extremist' lines, and for the common description of the Islamic State as 'more extreme than al-Qaeda'.
 
I've been saying this for years now. The idea of a moderate rebellion is mythical. The FSA at their mildest are friendly/impartial towards the likes of Al Nusra and ISIS. Its amazing how people would be happy to empower them in order to dispose of Assad, as brutal as he may be.

People seem to forget that the beheaded hostages have been sold to ISIS by the FSA. Luckily the Syrian Army is has pushed them back into their final enclave in Aleppo, they won't be around much longer unless their ISIS buddies come to their aid.
 
Really interesting talk from back in May given by Nir Rosen, who has more balls than just about any other Western journalist around these days:



The two main points he drives at are that (1) peace is not possible without accepting that the regime is here to stay, and (2) need to freeze the conflict as it stands now and accept that for the foreseeable future Syria is going to be at best a decentralised collection of autonomous entities mostly loosely ruled either directly by the regime or by local warlords (some pro-regime, some anti-regime). Any attempts at imposing an overall solution only help prolong the fighting and increase the number of deaths.
 
Dozens killed in Syria barrel bomb 'massacre'

At least 60 people dead after regime forces drop barrel bombs on a camp for people displaced by fighting in Idlib.



At least 60 people have been killed and dozens injured after a Syrian government helicopter dropped two barrel bombs on a camp for people displaced by fighting in the country's north, charring some bodies beyond recognition.

The bombs were dropped on a camp near al-Habeet in the northern province of Idlib on Wednesday.

Footage posted on YouTube showed corpses of women and children and burning tents while people scrambled to save the wounded. "It's a massacre of refugees," a voice off camera said.

"Let the whole world see this, they are displaced people. Look at them, they are civilians, displaced civilians. They fled the bombardment," the man's voice said.


Barrel bombs and its deadly force in Syria
A man in another video of the Abedin camp, which houses people who had escaped fighting in neighbouring Hama province, said as many as 75 people had died.

Barrel bombs are crudely-made containers filled with nails, metal shrapnel and explosive which are dropped from helicopters.

The regime has pressed on with using barrel bombs in civilian areas despite a UN resolution banning their indiscriminate use in populated areas.

Nearly10 million people have been displaced by Syria's civil war, which started in 2011 with protests but grew into an armed revolt when security forces cracked down on the demonstrations.

An estimated 3 million refugees have fled the country and the conflict has killed close to 200,000 people, according to the UN.
 
This quote by Joe Biden is a couple of weeks old, and the White House did kind of "apologize" for it (not surprisingly), but it very much sums up what I have been saying in this thread for 2 years.

I do think he missed an important name though when talking about the countries that directly funded and armed those "rebels".

I love Biden. Unfiltered and brutally honest moment there.
 
That's a weird thing to say after a systematic obliteration of a civilian population just a couple of months back. Gotta love your sense of compassion and make yourself feel better by scoring points in an internet debate.

I reckon this deserves 3 points, Raoul.

 
need to freeze the conflict as it stands now and accept that for the foreseeable future Syria is going to be at best a decentralised collection of autonomous entities

This increasingly appears to be on the agenda, seems the best hope for stopping the violence:

Syria conflict: Assad 'to study' UN truce plan for Aleppo

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-29991667
 
A ceasefire needs to happen quickly, so everyone can focus on bukaking ISIS big time. They're benefiting from this civil war.

What happens after isis is gone ? topple assad.

he's be foolish to accept a ceasefire, let the west increase there efforts to fight isis or let them divert fsa/good terrorists against isis. If anything assad should ally with the kurds and promise them autonomy in the north in return for there allegiance.
 
What happens after isis is gone ? topple assad.

he's be foolish to accept a ceasefire, let the west increase there efforts to fight isis or let them divert fsa/good terrorists against isis. If anything assad should ally with the kurds and promise them autonomy in the north in return for there allegiance.

They can try, Russia would make it impossible for Iraq and Libya to happen all over again.

The FSA are as good as broken anyway, Assad should reinforce his gains, restore security and join the genuine effort to rid the region of ISIS.
 
They can try, Russia would make it impossible for Iraq and Libya to happen all over again.

The FSA are as good as broken anyway, Assad should reinforce his gains, restore security and join the genuine effort to rid the region of ISIS.

Seeing he also got rid of the chemical weapons he might actually turn into a partner for peace. Hilary Clinton is already booking her flight for a visit.
 
Seeing he also got rid of the chemical weapons he might actually turn into a partner for peace. Hilary Clinton is already booking her flight for a visit.

Lol Hilary should probably deal with her party's whitewash in the midterms before pretending to play impartial arbiter.
 
Lol Hilary should probably deal with her party's whitewash in the midterms before pretending to play impartial arbiter.

I always think of the picture of Hilary Clinton and Mutassim Gadaffi, being all smiley and shaking hands. Such bliss. They were probably following each other in Instagram. And then, boom!
 
They can try, Russia would make it impossible for Iraq and Libya to happen all over again.

The FSA are as good as broken anyway, Assad should reinforce his gains, restore security and join the genuine effort to rid the region of ISIS.

The Russian regime will do well to stay in power at the moment, much less thwart the US from doing anything Syria. As for Assad, he better come up with a strategy to save his hide before a Republican is elected in 2016.
 
The Russian regime will do well to stay in power at the moment, much less thwart the US from doing anything Syria. As for Assad, he better come up with a strategy to save his hide before a Republican is elected in 2016.

Weren't you claiming in the other thread that republicans wont win the white house because of demographics ? :)
 
Weren't you claiming in the other thread that republicans wont win the white house because of demographics ? :)

It obviously depends who the Democrats choose. Certain candidates match up better against others. Demographics wise, the Republicans face a major uphill struggle. The only candidate who can overcome them imo, is Jeb Bush.
 
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29653526


Syria's disappeared
By Lucy Rodgers and Faisal Irshaid

Thousands of Syrians have vanished without a trace, forcibly "disappeared", since the country's uprising began in March 2011. Held incommunicado by the regime or militant groups at secret locations across the country, detainees are often kept in inhuman conditions. Some are tortured, others go on to be killed. For relatives left behind, the pain of not knowing what has happened to their loved ones is intolerable.


The recent beheadings of Western hostages by Islamic State militants in Syria sparked horror and outrage around the world. Yet many more Syrians are also suffering at the hands of kidnappers from violent rebel groups or government security forces - their existence often denied by their captors.


According to human rights groups, thousands of men and women - as well as some children - have been snatched from the country's streets, homes and workplaces before being taken to official or secret detention facilities. They can languish there for years without legal recourse or contact with their families.

Such enforced disappearances and arbitrary detentions have been a feature of the Syrian uprising since it began, says Lama Fakih, Syria and Lebanon researcher for Human Rights Watch (HRW).

But, while in the first instance the target was primarily protesters, Ms Fakih explains, as time went on human rights activists, journalists and lawyers - the legitimate monitors of government activity - also became victims.

Many just disappeared, leaving families with no knowledge of their whereabouts, she says.

"In effect, these people just vanished."
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29653526#story_continues_4

This is exactly what happened to 53-year-old writer and human rights activist Samira al-Khalil.

Her husband, Yassin al-Hajj Saleh, describes how Samira was snatched along with three of her colleagues - human rights lawyer Razan Zeitouneh, Razan's husband Wa'el Hamadeh and lawyer Nathim Hamadi. They were kidnapped on 9 December 2013, one day before the country's annual Human Rights Day.

A group of masked, armed men stormed Samira's office on the outskirts of Damascus in East Ghouta, says Yassin, capturing the four of them along with their laptops. One of those abducted was on a Skype call with his brother at the time. He overheard the captors shouting "infidels" and "enemies of God" at their victims.


"I didn't do anything, I couldn't do anything," he recalls.

The abductors, Yassin believes, were members of the militant Islamist group Jaysh al-Islam, which controlled parts of Damascus at the time. They objected to Razan's plans to set up a judicial organisation in the capital's east, he says.


It represents a long struggle that did not just start today, or with the Syrian revolution, but a long time ago, as part of our struggle with the Syrian regime itself


Yassin al-Hajj Saleh on his wife and friends' detention
"It represents a long struggle that did not just start today, or with the beginning of the Syrian revolution, but a long time ago, as part of our struggle with the Syrian regime itself."

Yassin is speaking from experience. Now 53, he was just 19 when he was arrested by the regime for being a member of a communist opposition organisation. He went on to be held for 16 years.

Moved from place to place, it was his last year in prison that turned out to be the worst.

"I was constantly tortured, slapped, hit and lashed," he says. "In some cases, they used hunger as a torture method. Imagine getting four olives for breakfast for months. It was very painful."

For this reason, he fears for the health and safety of his wife and her colleagues.

"We don't know if they have enough food, clothes - if they can see the sunlight, go for walks or are in good health," Yassin says. "It is exactly these things that I experienced myself, along with hundreds of my friends who were detained."

Scale of disappearances
Mass arrests by regime forces, leading to the enforced disappearance of large groups of fighting-age men, have been documented by the UN's Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic - set up in 2011 to record the conflict's war crimes.

Such incommunicado detentions have been employed by the government to "silence the opposition and spread fear amongst relatives and friends of demonstrators, activists and bloggers", the commission says.


Held in Syria
85,000

people estimated to be detained arbitrarily in regime jails

  • 2,600 records of people missing without a trace

  • 1,200 records of people kidnapped and held by armed groups
Source: Violations Documentation Center, Syrian Network for Human Rights
Reuters
The Syrian Network for Human Rights estimates as many as 85,000 people are currently being held arbitrarily by the regime.

Syria's Violation Documentation Center (VDC), which has been recording human rights violations in Syria since April 2011, also believes the number runs into the "dozens of thousands".

On top of this, the VDC has records of more than 1,200 people kidnapped by armed groups - mostly by the jihadist Islamic State (formerly known as Isis). A further 2,600 people are documented as missing without a trace, the VDC says.

However, the UN's human rights office believes the true scale of forced disappearances will only be fully grasped in the aftermath of the conflict.

Contd.....

 
Testimony from those who have survived arbitrary detention or forced disappearances has revealed how victims endure desperate conditions with little or no legal representation. Human Rights Watch (HRW) has documented systematic torture at 27 government-run detention facilities across the Syrian regions of Aleppo, Damascus, Daraa, Homs, Idlib and Latakia.

Detainees, questioned by HRW investigators, tell of overcrowded cells where captives are forced to remain standing or take turns sleeping. Many describe being deprived of food, while others recall being kept blindfolded, handcuffed or even naked.

They also describe prolonged beatings, rape, electrocution, mock executions, burning and the extraction of finger and toenails. Some of those held die as a result of their maltreatment.



Three former war crimes prosecutors, who examined 55,000 digital images of dead prisoners taken between March 2011 until August 2013, believe as many as 11,000 detainees could have been systematically tortured and executed since the start of the uprising. The Syrian authorities have denied the claims.

While most of the detentions documented by human rights organisations so far have been carried out by the regime and its agencies, the number of enforced disappearances by armed opposition groups - particularly the Islamic State - are on the rise, the UN says.

Amnesty International has documented cases of torture, flogging and summary killings at IS secret prisons.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29653526#story_continues_11

The relatives of photographer Mohammed Nour, who disappeared following a car bombing in Raqqa, northern Syria, in August 2013, faced an agonising struggle to find out whether he was dead or alive.

When the 22-year-old's charred and melted camera was found close to the wreckage of the blast, they had presumed the worst.

Older brother Amer Matar even received a call from a friend informing him of Mohammed's death.

"I was in a total shock," the 28-year-old recalls. "I checked my computer and the news was all over the internet."

The family rushed to the site of the bombing to look for confirmation.

"We searched but we couldn't find his remains or corpse," says Amer. "We went to the hospitals, asked people, even Isis fighters, but we couldn't find anything.

"The whole search was like a maze. Many people gave us either wrong or inaccurate information and that caused a lot of confusion and chaos. They were very difficult times."

But the family then began to hear reports that Mohammed was, in fact, not dead but was being held at a prison run by Islamic State in Raqqa.

"Unfortunately, this is how the families of the detainees in Syria learn about their relatives," says Amer. "You can't bribe Isis for information; they don't even acknowledge that they hold anyone in their prisons."

Amer, who was himself detained twice by government forces in 2011, has since learned his brother was abducted while filming the Islamic State operation to plant the bomb in the car in Raqqa. He has not seen him since.


And without any government or financial backing to fight for Mohammed's release, the family feels powerless.

"Our hands are tied, we can't do anything now," says Amer. "We don't even know why they are keeping all these Syrians in captivity."

Maisa Saleh is facing a similar battle. She is desperate for news of her 25-year-old younger sister, Samar, who was taken from the northern province of Aleppo.


Maisa Saleh describes her sister Samar's abduction

In a bizarre twist of fate, Maisa only learned of Samar's abduction by jihadists just half an hour after she was herself released from government detention.

Maisa logged onto the internet to let her family know of her release and saw the news of her sibling's capture on social media.

"At the beginning, I was so happy that I left the prison and I felt so relieved," recalls the 31-year-old. "Everything changed when I learnt about Samar."

As Maisa had no access to the outside world while she was being held, she had no knowledge of the rise of jihadist groups, such as Islamic State.

"I wondered, who are Isis, why are they doing this? How did they kidnap my sister and how come no one was able to do anything about it? All these questions were coming to my mind, but I had no answers."

Over time Maisa learned that Samar and her fiance Mohammed al-Umor - a 25-year-old journalist - had been kidnapped while filming in Aleppo province.

"Two tinted cars arrived and a number of masked men, speaking with a classical Arabic accent, took Mohammed," she says. "Samar protested, asked them to let him go and asked why they were taking him. So they decided to also take her.

"They pulled her hair, dragged her into a car with Mohammed and drove away."

Maisa knows exactly what life is like in detention. She was arbitrarily arrested by government officials in April 2013 while socialising in a Damascus cafe. Her friends were also detained simply because they were with her at the time. Some are still in prison.

For six-and-a-half months, Maisa's family didn't know whether she was dead or alive.

She describes how she was mistreated - slapped and hit - but because of social media coverage of her arrest, her captors were more lenient.

Her companions were not so lucky.

"Some of my friends were brutally tortured," she says. "One almost died."




We wish someone could just tell us anything about them, whether they are dead or alive. Even if Samar is dead, at least give us her body - let us know. Tell us so that we can rest



Maisa was finally released in November 2013, shortly after her sister's abduction. Then, to add to her family's torment, pro-government forces stormed Maisa's house again earlier this year, detaining her cousin and her friend. Both remain in prison.



Yassin al-Hajj Saleh on the disappearance of his wife

"They see it as revenge," Maisa says. "They told my cousin, who was brutally tortured, that she had done nothing and that they were keeping her because of me."

Now living in Turkey and working as a journalist, Maisa has struggled to come to terms with her sister's disappearance and has battled periods of depression.

"Whenever I spoke about her or looked at her photos I started crying," she says. "I felt a major loss and pain."

Maisa and her family have tried everything to find out where Samar and her fiance were taken, but without success.

"Until now we don't have any news about her or Mohammed," says Maisa. "We wish someone could just tell us anything about them, whether they are dead or alive. Even if Samar is dead, at least give us her body - let us know. Tell us so that we can rest."

'UN Security Council Resolution 2139, adopted in February this year, condemns the "arbitrary detention and torture of civilians in Syria... as well as kidnappings and abductions and enforced disappearances" and demands "the immediate cessation of such practices and the release of all persons arbitrarily detained".
Human Rights Watch has also called on the UN to demand access for independent monitors to all detention facilities. The campaign group also wants the situation in Syria referred to the International Criminal Court to ensure there are consequences for the perpetrators.

Since his wife's capture, Yassin al-Hajj Saleh has been campaigning alongside international human rights groups for the release of all those erroneously held in Syria.

He describes how he is connected to all the "mothers, fathers, wives, husbands and siblings" struggling to find out what has happened to their loved ones.

"Mothers say they feel pain every time they talk about their detained or kidnapped sons - when they eat, when they go for a walk or run their usual daily tasks," he says.

"Well, I feel exactly the same. I think of Samira every moment, every second of every day."

And, he adds, he and his fellow campaigners will do "everything" in their power to ensure that those responsible will one day pay for their crimes.

"I will not give up on this cause until I die."​
 
Decent write-up on the state of play in Syria as we go into 2015: http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/year-end-predictions-analysis-joshua-landis-28-december-2014/

---------------------------------------------------------------

Syria will become increasingly fragmented in 2015. The Somalia-ization of the country is inevitable so long as the international community degrades all centers of power in Syria and the opposition fails to unite.

Who owns what?

The four strongest authorities in Syria are the Assad government, ISIS, Nusra, and the Kurds. They rule close to 95% of Syrian territory. The Assad government rules 45% of the land and perhaps 65% of the population, give or take. ISIS rules 35%, but controls less than 3 million people. Kurds may control about 8% or 9% of Syria and Nusra another 5%. This leaves the hundreds of additional militias controlling the remaining 5%, but in some areas “No FSA faction can operate without Nusra’s approval.” Jihadis prevailed in 2014.

All authorities will become weaker, with the possible exception of the Kurds. The United States is at war with all important Arab factions. It is actively bombing ISIS and Nusra, while sanctioning Assad. Although Washington has been funding a “train and equip” project to the tune of half a billion dollars, it appears to have neither urgency nor teeth. Coalition forces are divided on objectives. This means that all centers of authority in Syria are being degraded while none are being built up. It means no one can win. The Assad regime, ISIS, and Nusra are all likely to see their power diminish over the coming year. The FSA militias have become practically irrelevant and must take orders from the radicals. The educated and worldly activists who played such a vital role in launching the revolution have been pushed aside and are today without influence. One can interpret this either as: a) Liberals and democrats in Syria were such a small elite that they were quickly swept aside by the tide of sectarians, fascists, and Islamists; or B) Assad intentionally destroyed the liberals and moderates so that he would face only extremists, leaving the world to face an either-or choice: Assad or al-Qaida. The reality is probably a measure of both.

The Assad government strengthened its control over major cities, while losing control over rural areas. It gained ground in the Damascus suburbs, Kalamoun, Homs and Aleppo, but it lost territory in others, such as Idlib, the Golan, Deraa and the Jazira. This strategy reveals Assad’s urban bias. He believes he can regain the support of the urban middle classes who fear the radicalized and poorer country-folk. The Baath originally relied on rural support against the cities. But as it went bankrupt and turned away from subsidies and socialism toward neo-liberal policies mixed with a heavy dose of corruption, it turned its back on the urban poor and struggling countryside. Today the regime is trying to turn the rich against the poor in an effort to convince them that the revolution was a pipe-dream and that they must fight “terrorism.” Collapsing oil revenues in Iran and Russia mean that Assad will have to suffer with less money in 2015. But so too will the rebels because they are as reliant on oil money as the regime. All incomes will take a nosedive. Ninety percent of Syrians live below the poverty line, according to the UN. But poverty can get worse.

Jihadis and extremists prevailed

Although 2014 began with US-backed militias teaming up with the Islamic Front and Nusra to drive ISIS “out of Syria,” they failed. They succeeded in expelling ISIS from Idlib province and villages north of Aleppo, but Nusra quickly routed the pro-US rebels and asserted itself over the Idlib region. It has also spread its power in Deraa and planted its flag on the Golan. Nusra refrains from swallowing up FSA militias in part because their purported independence is useful. As one USA vetted fighter in Northern Syria explained, “Nusra lets groups vetted by the United States keep the appearance of independence, so that they will continue to receive American supplies.” Once received, the radicals have the authority to commandeer the advanced arms. This is why the US is abandoning the vetted FSA militias and beginning its policy of “train and equip,” an effort to build a Syrian Army completely controlled by the US. Washington explains that the new force will be used to fight ISIS, then weaken Assad with the goal of forcing him to first accept a political solution and then leave the country. This is unrealistic, but what else can the US say it is doing?

The creation of new states was the rage in 2014.

ISIS began the craze with the announcement of the Islamic State shortly after its leader, Baghdadi, declared himself Caliph. Nusra followed suit with the declaration of an Emirate. The Kurds showed restraint by refusing to declare their independence, but made considerable headway in that direction. Rojava, the Kurdish name for Syrian Kurdistan, is now on everyone’s lips. In the last months of 2013, the PYD announced an interim government divided into three non-contiguous autonomous areas or cantons, Afrin, Jazira and Kobani and military service was declared compulsory in July 2014. The war against ISIS has strengthened the state attributes of Kurdistan. Iraqi Kurdistan received new direct military aid from many countries. Rojava gained US and international backing for its military efforts, especially in the battle for Kobani. Although the region has been depopulated, the new partnership between the PYD and Washington is big. Even Turkey was forced to break its embargo on the PYD.

The Great Sorting Out and Rise of Religious Nationalism

Religious nationalism has become the dominant ideology in the Middle East. The “secular” nationalism that was once the hallmark of post colonial regimes and leaders, such as Nasser, Assad, Hussein, Bourgiba, Arafat, and Boumediene is moribund. Interestingly, Egypt and Tunisia have reacted against this trend. Is their reaction a harbinger of Islamist retreat more broadly or merely a hiccup? Hard to tell, but my guess is that 2015 will see religious identities harden throughout the Levant. This means bad news for reconciling Syria’s waring parties. The Levant Front, the most recent effort by Syria’s many militias to unify, does not look more promising than past efforts. The Syrian opposition seems to be organized along regional and local village and clan lines, hence its inability to unite. Traditional loyalties of religion, village and family have trumped national ones. The only ideology able to attract followers on a national scope is Islam.

I have spoken at some length about the “Great Sorting Out” that I believe is taking place in the Levant countries. The Syrian civil war fits into a larger pattern of nation-building in which the many ethnic and religious communities of the region are caught in a brutal struggle for primacy and survival. It is strikingly similar the nation-building process that dominated Central Europe during WWII. Multi-ethnic and mutli-religious lands are being transformed into boringly homogenous nations. We are witnessing the rearrangement of populations in the region to better fit the nation states that were fixed after WWI.

Some new borders are being drawn, such as those around the Kurdish regions of Iraq and perhaps Syria, but mostly, what we are seeing is the ethnic cleansing of the smaller minorities and rearranging of populations to fit their borders. This means that the smaller minorities of the region, those that are scattered, such as the Christians, Armenians, Roma, Bahai, Mandaeans, and Jews, before they massed in Palestine and forced out the Palestinians, will likely be swept from the region. The “compact minorities,” those that live together in one region, are more capable of defending themselves, such as the Jews of Israel, the Shiites of Lebanon, the Alawites (so far), and the Druze (who have simply been lucky). But the smaller compact minorities, such as the Yazidis, Assyrians, Ismailis, and Shabaks—may God protect them.
 
Syria is locked into perpetual war

The great powers are determined to support their Syrian proxies enough that they will not lose, but not enough to win. This means prolonged struggle. Most regional civil wars have come to an end only with foreign intervention. Lebanon and Iraq had foreign powers disarm militias in order to facilitate state-building and political compromise. No foreign power is likely to intervene in Syria to disarm radicals or nurse moderates back into the political center.

Has the US changed its position on Syria?

Officially, the US continues to see Bashar al-Assad as a “dead man walking” and to insist that he “step aside.” Secretary of State Kerry began the year at the Geneva peace talks announcing that Bashar al-Assad had lost all legitimacy. He added that no one could conceive of his playing a role in the future of Syria. This week General Allen, Obama’s special envoy said, “as far as the U.S. is concerned, there is no Bashar al-Assad, he is gone.” The United States finds talking to Assad too ideologically costly. But it equally finds the notion of unifying & arming the opposition too costly & improbable. Thus, Washington seems determined to stick to a narrow policy of counter-terrorism—killing ISIS and Nusra when opportunity presents itself and keeping them on their heels. Washington sees the Syria problem as unfixable. The American people want no part of it, hence the threatened “no” vote in congress when the issue was bombing Assad for his use of chemical weapons as well as the more recent cutting of 300 million dollars of additional support from a larger spending bill that was earmarked for Syria’s “moderate” militias.

But if US talking points about Assad remain unchanged, underlying realities have shifted. Exactly one year ago, Ambassador Ryan Crocker wrote in a prescient article, entitled “Assad Is the Least Worst Option in Syria,” that “we need to come to terms with a future that includes Assad—and consider that as bad as he is, there is something worse.” That something, which was Nusra and ISIS, sucked the United States back into the region this summer. When ISIS swept through Sunni Iraq without a real fight and threatened to conquer Irbil and Baghdad, President Obama was forced to go to war. He could not allow al-Qaida to rule Iraq. Once President Obama threatened to “degrade and destroy” ISIS, the US effectively became an ally of the Assad regime and Iran, like it or not.

The Syrian peace talks that Russia has announced for 2015 may seem like a joke, but they are perhaps designed to get the US to officially accept the fact that Assad may remain leader of Syria. After all, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov assured the press that he “was in contact with our American partners” about the peace talks. It is hard to believe that Obama will climb down from his stand that Assad must step aside unless Assad makes real concessions and can draw the US-recognized Syrian Opposition Coalition into negotiations. The chance that this could happen seem slim.

Is the Syrian Army a Bulwark against Extremism?

In the bowels of the Pentagon, officers probably look at Assad’s state as a bulwark against ISIS and Nusra. They cannot allow it to be destroyed for fear that the the Jihadists will sweep into Damascus and Syria’s cities. Once ensconced in the capital, they would own Syria. What is more, a new wave of refugees would flee from Syria into Lebanon and Jordan, possibly overwhelming both governments. Certainly Baathists, security personnel, and regime apparatchiks would flee. If Alawites, Christians, Druze and Shiites believed that they were no longer safe due to religious persecution, refugee numbers could reach into the millions. America’s policy has been to contain the violence in Syria. Regime collapse could defeat that policy, just as regime survival seems to defeat it. Most of America’s allies and the Syrian opposition insist that US war planes should be bombing Assad as well as ISIS. The US cannot risk an extremist victory by destroying the Syrian Army. But US politicians also want to weaken the regime. Israel wants to destroy its advanced missile systems. Syria is a perfect case where US military planners may want a policy quite different from that set out by politicians.

The Syrian army is likely to remain weak and over-extended. It is desperate for soldiers and alienating its own supporters with draconian draft measures. Syrian National Defense Forces or popular militias will do more of the work. As Aron Lund has pointed out, they tend to be local forces that are reluctant to move out of their home districts or travel beyond their villages. This is part of the overall fragmentation.

Why De Mestura’s Plan Makes Sense

Staffan de Mistura’s UN backed plan makes sense if one sees the future of Syria in the bleakest light, where fragmentation is the rule and regime strength is limited largely to the cities. Because disunity precludes a comprehensive peace plan, de Mistura has come up with the notion of local freezes and sees Aleppo as a likely starting point. Activists have pronounced this plan defeatist, if not pro-Assad, but de Mistura has little choice. He has no army with which to change the balance of power. His mission is to save lives and provide food. If local rebels want out, as they did in Homs, the UN can help. Likewise, if pro-regime towns, such as Nubl and Zahraa, are starving, the UN can try to freeze fighting and get aid in or help officiate a surrender. All sides will have to agree. It is the lowest common denominator, but an essential role that only the UN can fill.

2014 was the year of ISIS

The past year was ISIS’ year. But 2015 is likely to see ISIS seriously degraded, if not destroyed. The Baghdad government may able to dislodging ISIS from important strongholds in Iraq and shove it back into Syria. It is hard to envisage a new force rising up to take ISIS’s place, however. ISIS’ success among the rebel militias is founded on its brutal authoritarianism. “Caliph” Baghdadi has copied the Assad and Saddam regimes. It is no surprise that his top 20 officers are largely Iraqi ex-Baathists. The Syrian opposition has not found a way to compromise or unify without the use of force and terror. Thus ISIS is deploying the same paranoid style and traditional loyalties to unify Syria’s fissured society as did the Baath. To succeed it is becoming even more terrifying than the regime it hoped to replace.
 
Syrian rebels seize largest army base in Deraa
Opposition fighters take control of a major base that was used by the regime to shell all eastern areas of the province.

09 Jun 2015 14:52 GMT |

An umbrella group of opposition fighters have seized the largest army base in the southern province of Deraa - the birthplace of Syria's four-year uprising - after 24 hours of fighting, a rebel spokesman and monitoring group have said.

Essam al-Rayes, a spokesman for the Southern Front rebel alliance operating in the province, told the AFP news agency on Tuesday that the "fully liberated" base "was one of the main lines of defence for regime forces".

"It was a nightmare, because they used it to shell all the areas to the east of the province," he added.

He said at least 2,000 rebel forces overran the base, which lies near a major highway running from Damascus to Syria's southern border with Jordan, in a "short and quick" assault.

Diaa al-Hariri, a spokesman for Faylaq al-Awwal, one of the armed groups in the Southern Front coalition, also confirmed the significance of the base.

"The base is also an important infantry base, from which the regime attacked towns and villages in the south," he said.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based monitoring group that relies on a network of activists on the ground, reported that opposition groups had taken the 52nd Brigade base after clashes and intense shelling that left 14 rebel fighters and 20 government forces dead.

Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman said regime troops withdrew to the nearby village of al-Dara. Rebel groups control a majority of Daraa province and its capital, according to Abdel Rahman.

Syria's official news agency SANA did not mention the capture of the base. But earlier, citing a military source, it said the air force had struck the area, killing at least 40 "terrorists".

String of regime losses

Regime forces have suffered several defeats over the last three months at the hands of opposition fighters.

One of the most recent major losses wasIdlib province, which rebels claimed full control over since Saturday.

The Observatory also said on Tuesday that it has documented the deaths of 230,000 people since the Syrian conflict began in March 2011.

The dead include 69,494 civilians, among them 11,493 children. The conflict has also claimed the lives of 49,106 troops, 32,533 pro-government fighters and 38,592 rebels, it said.

Abdurrahman said the real death toll could be above 300,000, since there are tens of thousands of people who are missing or were buried without being counted.

Syria's conflict began with peaceful Arab Spring-inspired demonstrations demanding political reform, but eventually escalated into a civil war after the government responded with a violent crackdown on dissent.

Today the country is split among forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, opposition factions, and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant group.