TLDR version:
Name/xG/npxG
Premier League:
Isak 19.33/16.0 (expensive £100m+?)
Watkins 17.30/13.0 (older)
Wissa 16.47/14.9 (older)
Mateta 14.12/10.5 (possible but older)
Delap 11.59/7.4 (young and cheap)
La Liga:
Barry 14.89/11.2 (certainly more than £30m release clause ~£34m but I can’t find a great source)
Bundesliga
Ekitike 21.02/17.7 (probably the best at market but maybe too expensive?)
Sêsko 10.33/7.8 (unique physcial profile but still a gamble and costly)
Ligue 1
Emegha 15.69/15.2 (might move to Chelsea don’t think they’d sell but he’s superb physically)
Biereth 10.68/8.4 (Probably the best penalty box striker in the top 5 leagues apart from Haaland)
The I actually Want to Learn a Bit About Strikers of Europe Version:
Essentially of those xG listed previously I think the shortlisted are players that could reasonably move in the summer.
For the PL Isak is the stand out. He’s simply the best striker on the market right now but his price would be prohibitive. He’s the final puzzle piece type transfer and the kind of player perfect for Arsenal at their stage of squad building. The rest of these Watkins, Wissa and Mateta represent alternatives to Delap but obviously are older and so the upside and value is questionable despite there being more current ability. I can’t imagine their fees being stupidly north of £40m let’s say but I can understand the club hesitating to buy. Watkins would appear to be an easy enough deal to make and he suits a pressing forward role. But his age is a concern. Mateta is probably the best blend of experience and current ability whilst being a reasonably affordable player though. His stats, physical profile and age make him probably the best
affordable PL striker at market.
In La Liga there is a potential one, Barry is the closest as he’s got a good physical and technical level well above most other forwards especially of his build. I think, for the right fee, he could be gettable and he’s got everything a modern forward needs. He’s adapted once already since his summer move, so in my view there is smaller risk of failure. I think he’s someone with another year of development in Spain would turn into a really dominant forward in La Liga and become £50m+ sort of player as he’s very comfortable in central and wide areas with and without the ball. I think if he’s going to be bought for a reasonable fee it would need to be this summer.
Serie A I just don’t think any of those strikers are suited to the PL for what we want. The physicality just isn’t in my opinion there. That doesn’t mean there aren’t good strikers I just don’t see any of them as sensible gambles relative to Delap hence the omission.
The Bundesliga has two good candidates Ekitike, who I really like and think could be the next Isak. He profiles well for a modern forward but would likely command a fee around £50m maybe higher which I’m sure will put a lot of clubs off. He’s absolutely a player who could explode and to be honest with how his season is going I can’t see him not moving in the summer. He has the potential to be a player we’ll be screaming why didn’t we take the gamble? One of the things I look for in a forward is do they get off shots in a game and he averages around 4 per match, which trust me is good! He leads npxg in a Germany too ahead of Kane and personally think he’s one of the few players I would prefer to Delap that wouldn’t cost an absolute fortune (a la Isak).
The alternative to him is Šeško who has a unique physical and technical profile and ball striking ability which means I’d be amazed if he doesn’t become a top CF somewhere. I just think the ship has sailed for us as he has better options in the summer and would probably be around £60m+ to sign.
Finally there is Ligue 1 and this is where I think we could find some value. Emegha and Biereth are two really exciting players. Emegha is an absolute athlete whose ability to sprint at high intensity and speed is already world class. His npxG is outstanding and if Chelsea don’t take advantage of him being at Strasbourg I think a lot of clubs will be interested in him. He’s incredibly selfish mind, but as a striker does it matter? For upwards of £30m he seems tailor made for the PL. As for Biereth, he’s probably the best penalty box striker at U23 level in the world. He’s a perfect example of a player who has been successful across multiple leagues with steady progression.
If I had to rank them in order of who I’d want ideally:
- Isak
- Ekitike
- Emegha
- Biereth
- Sesko
- Delap
- Mateta
- Barry
- Watkins
- Wissa