Not at all. It's important to look at the big picture. Earning this amount (not fluking it like Ole or Jose), doing well in the cups at the same time goes a long way. Mourinho threw the league away to focus on cups, and then got 2nd while playing like shit (we vastly outperformed xG that year, which had us 6th) and doing nothing in the cups. This will be the first time we get top 4 while playing good football and winning cups.
but still somewhat relevant as achieving what should realistically be our goal is also dependant on what those teams around us can feasibly achieve.I think we need 7-8 wins if our goal is to 'get top four' which it should be. I think we have better fixtures than the other teams in that mix, but away games to Brighton, Newcastle, and probably Spurs give me the anticipation of dropped points. Even though we have been largely good, our away games against top half sides is a cause for concern which I'd want us to resolve by winning 2-3 of those games!
The amount of times more than four teams get more than 70 points is pretty low..
18/19 - Arsenal 5th, 70 Points
17/18 - Chelsea 5th, 70 Points
16/17 - Arsenal 5th, 75 Points
13/14 - Everton 5th, 72 Points
12/13 - Spurs 5th, 72 Points
Went back as far as 2000/2001 season so 22 years and it has happened five times. The top teams do seem to hit higher totals on average as time goes on, but if you're above 70 points you'd really fancy your chances. 8 wins nets us 73 minimum and we'd surely chalk up a few draws as well. I do think we'll hit 76+ even if we drop off a little compared to the last few months barring the obvious heavy defeat anomaly.
Spurs are going to need some kind of spark, probably Son finding consistent form again if they're to get enough points. You never know what you're going to get, their fixtures do seem OK bar away to Newcastle & Liverpool, but they have home games against Brighton & United which could be cause for concern. Also going away to Everton I just fancy them to get beat.
Liverpool are in good form on the league, so it'll be very interesting how their next run of games goes after the international break. They probably don't want the break to be fair! But, they play Man City & Chelsea away and Arsenal at home in the space of nine days. If they come out of that run with 4-6 points, they will finish 4th. Might have to beat Spurs at the end of next month at Anfield to secure it, but I fully expect they will.
Newcastle have drawn too many games all season. Now that their scoring has dried up, some of those solid performances that would be draws or occasional wins are turning into defeats. They will lose another couple of games and draw plenty more if they don't fix that. Maybe the international break will come at a good time for them. Their fixtures are decent if they can start scoring goals, but I think Newcastle and indeed Spurs are going to be looking over their shoulders at Brighton, Fulham, and Brentford in a few weeks time rather than thinking they can catch United & Liverpool...
Edit: Realized I went off on one a bit there
Tl;Dr we will get more than 70 Points and should hopefully finish 3rd - even if Liverpool might end up closer than they should have been after end of last year/start of this.
That would surely set a record for highest points with lowest GD
Another record up for grabs this season, then.
Yeah, mainly just answering the last part here. We have a 70%+ win rate under EtH and the amount of defeats is low when spread across all competitions. 7 defeats in 41 games. If we can keep the same standard for the rest of the season, we should only expect to lose 2-3 matches depending how far we get in the cups.
That would mean getting at least 31 points out of a possible 39. Not going to happen.
Improvement over time is important. If you look at our form since Casemiro became a starter (our first games with a real DM...), then our xPts is right up there with Arsenal and Scott over half a season almost. We are 11th looking at the first 8 games. Yeah you can chop and change however you want, but that's a pretty clear one to me where first few months growing pains are gone, a DM is in the team and suddenly we are title challenging level and a massive improvement. Maintaining that while doing excellently in cups is big. And ok if you want to point to winnable games (still gotta win them, Newcastle in the final was by no means easy) - we played Barca, and deservedly beat them over 2 legs. We've beaten every big team in the prem, have won over 70% of all games this season... Points totals are just not always the best markers of how a team has done. It varies season to season. There are plenty of metrics that show our improvement, xG differential over 10 game periods over time for example, that will show a general upward trend with the few outliers that throw the whole data set in the totaling data.
I think we need 7-8 wins if our goal is to 'get top four' which it should be. I think we have better fixtures than the other teams in that mix, but away games to Brighton, Newcastle, and probably Spurs give me the anticipation of dropped points. Even though we have been largely good, our away games against top half sides is a cause for concern which I'd want us to resolve by winning 2-3 of those games!
The amount of times more than four teams get more than 70 points is pretty low..
18/19 - Arsenal 5th, 70 Points
17/18 - Chelsea 5th, 70 Points
16/17 - Arsenal 5th, 75 Points
13/14 - Everton 5th, 72 Points
12/13 - Spurs 5th, 72 Points
Went back as far as 2000/2001 season so 22 years and it has happened five times. The top teams do seem to hit higher totals on average as time goes on, but if you're above 70 points you'd really fancy your chances. 8 wins nets us 73 minimum and we'd surely chalk up a few draws as well. I do think we'll hit 76+ even if we drop off a little compared to the last few months barring the obvious heavy defeat anomaly.
Spurs are going to need some kind of spark, probably Son finding consistent form again if they're to get enough points. You never know what you're going to get, their fixtures do seem OK bar away to Newcastle & Liverpool, but they have home games against Brighton & United which could be cause for concern. Also going away to Everton I just fancy them to get beat.
Liverpool are in good form on the league, so it'll be very interesting how their next run of games goes after the international break. They probably don't want the break to be fair! But, they play Man City & Chelsea away and Arsenal at home in the space of nine days. If they come out of that run with 4-6 points, they will finish 4th. Might have to beat Spurs at the end of next month at Anfield to secure it, but I fully expect they will.
Newcastle have drawn too many games all season. Now that their scoring has dried up, some of those solid performances that would be draws or occasional wins are turning into defeats. They will lose another couple of games and draw plenty more if they don't fix that. Maybe the international break will come at a good time for them. Their fixtures are decent if they can start scoring goals, but I think Newcastle and indeed Spurs are going to be looking over their shoulders at Brighton, Fulham, and Brentford in a few weeks time rather than thinking they can catch United & Liverpool...
Edit: Realized I went off on one a bit there
Tl;Dr we will get more than 70 Points and should hopefully finish 3rd - even if Liverpool might end up closer than they should have been after end of last year/start of this.
Also the thing about 81 points is ole/Jose did in their second seasons which makes this season more impressive since we were coming off a season with 58
We’ve had three of these now. I had them as:
Spurs have us Liverpool Newcastle Brighton Brentford
Yeah we should win those. It’s hard work at the moment.
