Last 13 League games / Erik's second first big test...

Oranges038

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Had a look at the remaining league fixtures.

13 games left, sitting on 49 points. So with 39 available what's the final tally going to be?

  1. Southampton (H) W
  2. Brighton (A) D
  3. Newcastle (A) D
  4. Brentford (H) W
  5. Everton (H) W
  6. Forrest (A) W
  7. Chelsea (H) D
  8. Spurs (A) W (it's Spurs)
  9. Villa (H) W
  10. West Ham (A) D
  11. Wolves (H) W
  12. Bournemouth (A) W
  13. Fulham (H) W

I have it that there won't be another loss in the league. I'm being very optimistic, thats 9 wins, 4 draws and 31 points, final tally of 80 points. (I think)

Is it doable or how you think it'll end up?
 
75-80 points
My guess is 8 wins, then 2 or 3 draws and 2 or 3 losses. So 75 or 76 points.
 
I can assure you we will lose a game here and there
 
I think there will be a couple of surprise defeats in there somewhere, there always is for everyone. So around 74-76 points maybe
 
Depends if we get back on track on Sunday. Fail to win that then I can see it going downhill fast.

Most of those games look tricky with whats at stake for the teams involved and our poor away results.
 
We should be winning every home game - there's 7 left so that's 21 points which takes us to 70.

Realistic away games we should win include Forest, West Ham, and Bournemouth, which is an additional 9 points, which takes us to 79.

That leaves us with Brighton, Newcastle and Spurs away.

Newcastle are in horrendous form, so it's probably a good time to play them - would put us down for a win. That takes us to 82.
Brighton - I think we should aim for a win, but realistically this will be a draw, so a point takes us to 83.
Spurs is a funny one. We'll dominate the game and if we keep Kane quiet (which we have a good record of doing), we can realistically take 3 points, which takes us to 86.

Obviously winning 12 and drawing 1 of our next 13 is unrealistic, but I think we'll most likely beat out best ever points tally in the post SAF era which is 81. So I have us down in the 82-86 range, which would be an excellent debut season for EtH.
 
7-4-2 - 74 points finish.

It's a little optimistic in our current state - fatigue, dented confidence, injuries - but our fixture list is reasonably kind.
 
I personally don’t care if we end up 2nd, 3rd or 4th. We are in a unique position of being able to win 3 trophies in 1 season.
 
I think our capacity will be somewhere from 75 to 80 points. Lower end should net us 4th and higher end could see us get 2nd.
 
Mid 70's I reckon, there will be a few more defeats yet. Our Away record is concerning Brighton, Newcastle and spurs away will be big challenges for us.

West ham away if they are in a relegation scrap will be horrible aswell.

Confident about all the home games but it's the away games that concern me, think we will get top 4 but got a feeling it might get a little nervy.
 
With such a hectic schedule and already fatigued team there will most certainly be defeats in the remaining matches. Shocked if not.

My main hope is the Old Trafford form/ability to claim three points and it keeps that way until the end of the season.
 
As long as we finish one point ahead of fifth place I couldn’t really give a shit.

Getting CL football is pivotal.
 
  1. Southampton (H) W
  2. Brighton (A) L
  3. Newcastle (A) L
  4. Brentford (H) W
  5. Everton (H) W
  6. Forrest (A) W
  7. Chelsea (H) W
  8. Spurs (A) D
  9. Villa (H) W
  10. West Ham (A) W
  11. Wolves (H) D
  12. Bournemouth (A) W
  13. Fulham (H) D
= 27 Points (76 Overall)

Interested to see how close this prediction becomes...
 
Got some unfinished business with Brighton.
Only a proper twatting on their home patch will do.
 
Second big test. He passed the first.

I’d say the next four home games are crucial. Win three of those and I don’t see top 4 being an issue.
 
Waynne said:
Got some unfinished business with Brighton.
Only a proper twatting on their home patch will do.
Click to expand...
Isn’t that match delayed? I thought we had 4/5 home games coming up in the PL
 
van Nistelrooy said:
  1. Southampton (H) W
  2. Brighton (A) L
  3. Newcastle (A) L
  4. Brentford (H) W
  5. Everton (H) W
  6. Forrest (A) W
  7. Chelsea (H) W
  8. Spurs (A) D
  9. Villa (H) W
  10. West Ham (A) W
  11. Wolves (H) D
  12. Bournemouth (A) W
  13. Fulham (H) D
= 27 Points (76 Overall)

Interested to see how close this prediction becomes...
Click to expand...

I am going to shamelessly co-sign on your predictions
 
amolbhatia50k said:
Second big test. He passed the first.

I’d say the next four home games are crucial. Win three of those and I don’t see top 4 being an issue.
Click to expand...

Second first big test.

I think 80 points is achievable.

But I'll settle for 75 and top 4. CL football is a must for next season.
 
All of these look winnable technically speaking, but I'm by no means saying we'll get that, especially if we're still playing cup games.

I want to say I'm happy as long as we get top 4, which we should be comfortable doing, but I can't help but say that I'll be bitterly disappointed if Scousers jump ahead of us for 3rd and we've got to play in the CL qualifiers. After the season so far that both of the teams have had, it just feels like it would be a slap in the face.
 
Waynne said:
Got some unfinished business with Brighton.
Only a proper twatting on their home patch will do.
Click to expand...
Yeah, like we did with the scousers.. Reckon Brighton will be our toughest fixture - but worth noting that this fixture is being moved until after the Spurs game.
 
Just my prediction.
  1. Southampton (H) W
  2. Brighton (A) W
  3. Newcastle (A) D
  4. Brentford (H) W
  5. Everton (H) W
  6. Forrest (A) W
  7. Chelsea (H) W
  8. Spurs (A) W
  9. Villa (H) W
  10. West Ham (A) W
  11. Wolves (H) W
  12. Bournemouth (A) W
  13. Fulham (H) W
 
Brentford worries me again. We've gone from a counter attacking team under Ole to a team that's susceptible to being countered, as evidenced by the 4-0 and on Sunday.

With fixture pile up and tired legs I think teams that set up that way against us will have a good chance of scoring 2 or 3.
 
It’s a relief the game away to Brighton straight after a trip to Betis has been postponed because of our FA cup game.

Playing Newcastle away straight after the international break will always be tough too.
 
MUFC OK said:
Brentford worries me again. We've gone from a counter attacking team under Ole to a team that's susceptible to being countered, as evidenced by the 4-0 and on Sunday.

With fixture pile up and tired legs I think teams that set up that way against us will have a good chance of scoring 2 or 3.
Click to expand...

Apart from the Liverpool hiding when have we been weak to a counter attack recently?
 
Rockets Redglare said:
Apart from the Liverpool hiding when have we been weak to a counter attack recently?
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Leicester and West Ham could have had chances to do so if they weren't both shit. It's the fact we've played so many games that makes me think this will be a pattern until the end of the season.
 
MUFC OK said:
Brentford worries me again. We've gone from a counter attacking team under Ole to a team that's susceptible to being countered, as evidenced by the 4-0 and on Sunday.

With fixture pile up and tired legs I think teams that set up that way against us will have a good chance of scoring 2 or 3.
Click to expand...
Yeah I have that one down as one of my four predicted defeats. Other defeats I predicted were Brighton, Newcastle and Spurs.
 
MUFC OK said:
Yeah, like we did with the scousers.. Reckon Brighton will be our toughest fixture - but worth noting that this fixture is being moved until after the Spurs game.
Click to expand...
Brighton will be tough indeed. Maybe Ten Hag can replay the 4-0 drubbing we suffered at their hands as extra motivation to get even.
 
Waynne said:
Brighton will be tough indeed. Maybe Ten Hag can replay the 4-0 drubbing we suffered at their hands as extra motivation to get even.
Click to expand...

That was Brentford. Brighton was, thankfully, not as bad
 
bosnian_red said:
75-80 points
My guess is 8 wins, then 2 or 3 draws and 2 or 3 losses. So 75 or 76 points.
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That would be pretty underwhelming tbh. For all our supposed improvement, Erik's high win % etc etc that's only marginally better than Ole and worse than Jose.

I think we need to finish above 80 to prove we have gotten better. Some improvement in xG, xPts etc is also necessary.

xGD / 90 under Jose in his best season was 0.4. Under ten hag it is 0.34. xG/90 likewise was ~1.45 then and it's ~1.6 now. Somewhat better chance creation and worse defence.

Granted that was Joses best season and this is Erik's first.

AndersB said:
That was Brentford. Brighton was, thankfully, not as bad
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Brighton are our bogey team, fully expect us to lose the away game. Honestly calling them a bogey team is doing them a disservice, they're a pretty damn good side and by most stats they're pretty similar to United in capability.
 
Teja said:
That would be pretty underwhelming tbh. For all our supposed improvement, Erik's high win % etc etc that's only marginally better than Ole and worse than Jose.

I think we need to finish above 80 to prove we have gotten better. Some improvement in xG, xPts etc is also necessary.

xGD / 90 under Jose in his best season was 0.4. Under ten hag it is 0.34. xG/90 likewise was ~1.45 then and it's ~1.6 now. Somewhat better chance creation and worse defence.

Granted that was Joses best season and this is Erik's first.



Brighton are our bogey team, fully expect us to lose the away game. Honestly calling them a bogey team is doing them a disservice, they're a pretty damn good side and by most stats they're pretty similar to United in capability.
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Except us being 11 points ahead having played two extra games and actually having won a trophy this year? I agree that Brighton are a very good team and the matchup has tended to be really bad for us given their pressing and ability to keep possession and passing between the lines. We’d do well to get a point there.
 
Slevs said:
Just my prediction.
  1. Southampton (H) W
  2. Brighton (A) W
  3. Newcastle (A) D
  4. Brentford (H) W
  5. Everton (H) W
  6. Forrest (A) W
  7. Chelsea (H) W
  8. Spurs (A) W
  9. Villa (H) W
  10. West Ham (A) W
  11. Wolves (H) W
  12. Bournemouth (A) W
  13. Fulham (H) W
Click to expand...
We could win the league if these predictions pan out! 86 points if my adding is good.
 
I think we could break 80 points if we continue to push hard. I expect us to win the remaining home games and then the tricky aways are Newcastle, Spurs, Brighton and West Ham so I expect us to drop 2-3 results there.

In reality it depends on the league table situation in the final weeks of the season as we may have consolidated 3rd and then there may be a natural dip in energy levels.
 
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