I'm pretty confident we would've easily scored another if United equalized through Pereira or Martial.
This also confirms once again that xG is a lot of crap which needs to be dismissed altogether btw.
Jurgen Klopp Sack Watch
- Thread starter Samid
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This also confirms once again that xG is a lot of crap which needs to be dismissed altogether btw.
Understat actually have it closer.
https://understat.com/team/Liverpool/2019
@redman5
What xG tells you is that it's unreasonable to expect a 5-2 like against Everton because you were actually much more clinical than average in that game. Understat says that you actually scored as many goals as expected in yesterdays game but we under-performed the quality of our chances compared to the average.
Their xPTS table indicates that City have been the best side on balance of play but Liverpool have been over-performing both offensively and defensively. In regards to the defensive side of things that's where 'luck' can come from, the opposition squandering too many good chances or some great goalkeeping. Attacking wise I think Liverpool's forward have been great and Trent's set pieces make a big difference because they're so good whilst being low quality chances as a general rule. The question is if this over-performance is sustainable.
https://understat.com/league/EPL/2019
I dont think he will lose sleep given the final score, the position they are in the league, the seasons he's just had
They're the best side to ever play in the PL so I'm sure he won't.
Long ball critic wins by long ball.
It's part of the data which your famed scouting system use to find players. Salah was only second to Messi in the top 5 leagues on xGC/90 the season that saw you make a move for him, which means that only Messi was involved in more goal build ups than him per 90.
https://statsbomb.com/2018/08/introducing-xgchain-and-xgbuildup/
You bought 3 good players in the summer in James, AWB, & Maquire. Spent over £100 million whilst we spent pretty much nothing. Do you think there maybe other factors involved in United's current plight ?
I'm not bothered what xG 'tells us'. My eyes & memory told me that yesterday's scoreline could quite easily have been similar to that of the Everton game, based on chances created, & chances missed.
Well my eyes and memory tell me that we could have won that game also. So there.
You must drink a lot then
Offended.
Why are people seriously using xg to describe the game ?
Utd were totally outplayed and are lucky it was only 2.0
Utd were totally outplayed and are lucky it was only 2.0
You are conveniently forgetting that we got cash from the sale of Lukaku so we did not spend 100 million.
United's current plight (as you say) is nothing compared to what LiVARpool and their fans went through for a whole 30 years (must have been so, so hard watching your rivals come from 7 to 20 Leagues) - just to remind you.
And It doesn't say much for LiVARpool that had United scored the Pereira and Martial chances yesterday would have been a different story and with our depleted side they thought they would smash us.
The Mane chance was identical to Pereira’s except even more clean cut/through. He had another one he fluffed as well with a cross/shot.
Salah missed the biggest sitter of the game. And De Gea pulled off a worldie off the Henderson shot.
Man Utd had one clear shot (Martial) and about 3-4 half attempts. You were thoroughly outplayed.
It's funny how we see things so differently.
Seems funny too that we're the only team to have taken points off these and also with a depleted side and also we could have won it too after our first half injuries in that match.
Depends what is meant by 'sustainable'.
Currently lost 1 game in 61 - that's incredible. Won 30 of last 31 games, which is jaw-dropping.
At what point do we need to offer deeper analysis than xG? I do like xG as a point of reference but the amount of money and preparation that clubs put into statistical analysis would indicate that it is, at best, a crude measure and doesn't offer a depth that explains certain aspects of the game.
If a statistic indicates a team 16 (19) points adrift are doing 'better' than the team at the top then my issue is with the utility of that statistic and the data that sits beneath it.
Imagine in 2000 when United recorded their record points tally - 18 points clear of Arsenal - and a stats guy was telling you that Arsenal were actually better in terms of 'balance of play'. I'm sure RedCafe would have you excommunicated.
All seems a bit reductive to me and not actual analysis.
It depends, some people get angry and confused out when stats tell them something they don't want to hear, others are curious as to what the underlying trends tell us. I'll admit that when xG told us last year that Ole's initial run was a freak, I dismissed it also but after looking into it xG is probably the best metric there is that's available to us plebs. Funnily enough I've had the same arguments with Leicester fans this season as xG had been saying that their form early on was massively out-performing the average both offensively and defensively, so that would suggest a correction would occur. Here we are now with them losing 4 in 6 and looking like what I suspect they are, a higher mid-table team that was on a freak run, rather than a special group of players under a genius manager.
The basic statistical data of losing only winning 30 in 31 should tell that the run is highly unusual or a 'freak'. Arsenal never recovered after the bubble was burst on their '50 not out' run. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if that happened to this Liverpool side.
You are correct in that xG is not a tell all metric and factors like a great goalkeeper and great attackers might lead a team to out-perform its xG longer term. Some sides in Spain seem to have. Personally I'd back City to win the title next season though as I think the data shows they're a better footballing side and Pep will get the backing to make the tweaks in player quality.
I guess as this is a United forum I won't be excommunicated for posting like this about Liverpool
@_00_deathscar
It depends how you look at it. Henderson is highly unlikely to score from that position so you can frame it as lucky that he got so close to doing so, thats why it wouldn't have affected the xG positively very much.
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It may be that all the other teams are passing through a bad phase, at the same time, so nothing incredible or jaw-dropping about this LiVARpool team.
I miss his excuses after defeats . Not happening no more.
Hopefully they get smashed in the CL!
He spent all summer training in wind, rain, thunder, heat, cold, on mud etc to make them ready for it now.
. Not happening no more.Hopefully they get smashed in the CL!
He spent all summer training in wind, rain, thunder, heat, cold, on mud etc to make them ready for it now.
Apperently those free headers for Van Dijk is pretty low xG. Although in reality he will score most of the time when noone is marking him well.
Thanks it's nice to know some of us still live here on earth rather than mars. The balance of play and momentum of games always speaks volumes about a fixture more so than any statistical analysis highlights. By our own managers admission we were extremely fortunate the first half to not have been blown apart.
It depends, some people get angry and confused out when stats tell them something they don't want to hear, others are curious as to what the underlying trends tell us. I'll admit that when xG told us last year that Ole's initial run was a freak, I dismissed it also but after looking into it xG is probably the best metric there is that's available to us plebs. Funnily enough I've had the same arguments with Leicester fans this season as xG had been saying that their form early on was massively out-performing the average both offensively and defensively, so that would suggest a correction would occur. Here we are now with them losing 4 in 6 and looking like what I suspect they are, a higher mid-table team that was on a freak run, rather than a special group of players under a genius manager.
The basic statistical data of losing only winning 30 in 31 should tell that the run is highly unusual or a 'freak'. Arsenal never recovered after the bubble was burst on their '50 not out' run. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if that happened to this Liverpool side.
You are correct in that xG is not a tell all metric and factors like a great goalkeeper and great attackers might lead a team to out-perform its xG longer term. Some sides in Spain seem to have. Personally I'd back City to win the title next season though as I think the data shows they're a better footballing side and Pep will get the backing to make the tweaks in player quality.
I guess as this is a United forum I won't be excommunicated for posting like this about Liverpool
@_00_deathscar
It depends how you look at it. Henderson is highly unlikely to score from that position so you can frame it as lucky that he got so close to doing so, thats why it wouldn't have affected the xG positively very much.
You need to use xG correctly. To use it for individual games is fine to see which teams had chances, but a season average might not tell that much. If you totally destroy a side 6-0 with xG 7 then it is great, but it still gives you only 3 points.Just like goal difference do not tell you which sides is the best one.
City smashing the bottom sides doesn't mean they will win the hard games too. Liverpool defend better and get those 1-0 wins, but also wins big at times in big games.
I miss his excuses after defeats
Hopefully they get smashed in the CL!
He spent all summer training in wind, rain, thunder, heat, cold, on mud etc to make them ready for it now.
There's no real way Utd deserved anything, 2-0 seemed about right to me. Mane chance equates to Martial muss. Salah should have scored, AWB should have given Pereira a standing up tap in. This starts to take us towards 3-1, 4-2, 5-2 maybe, when we think LFC had others opps too.
xG doesn't seem like it has any consistency of calculation imo, so is nonsense basically
xG doesn't seem like it has any consistency of calculation imo, so is nonsense basically
City have been behind in the xG in 2 games this season and only lost one of those games. When they drew with Newcastle the xG was 0.21 - 2.44 yet the score was 2-2. Those are the type of 'unlucky' games that Liverpool have managed to avoid this season.
I think the xPTS table serves to illustrate the seasonal dynamic.
Do you think there maybe other factors involved in United's current plight ?
That's the question I asked you in my post. It was a reasonable question imo, so why didn't you offer your opinion as to why your club is in the position it is after spending so much money ? Pointing out stuff like if Pereira had done this or if Martial had done that is totally irrelevant. If you don't want to answer the question then fine. But using deflection & ridicule is an absolute cop-out.
It's funny how we see things so differently.
Seems funny too that we're the only team to have taken points off these and also with a depleted side and also we could have won it too after our first half injuries in that match.
What depleted side ? What first half injuries ?
It’s not though, you’ve got away with points in so many games you were shite in.
Not quite sure how Liverpool have gone unbeaten all season, but it has got to the stage where is probably a mental thing for even the opposition to overcome, loads of teams are missing absolute sitters against the scousers somehow.
It's like the narrative by a few people that we're a long ball team. It's something we do to counter the high press. It's not exactly a big hopeful hoof to a big lumbering centre forward, it's generally a crossfield diagonal pass to one of the fullbacks who've advanced into the opposition half. VVD does it very well.
I'm pretty sure if you went back over the past 12-18 months you'd find very few matches where the opposition have created the better chances than us during the course of the match. We missed a few sitters ourselves yesterday yet all we see on here is how United could/should have scored 1, or maybe 2, goals. Same with Spurs last week, we should have easily been 3-0 up at half-time but it's lucky Liverpool because Spurs messed up a couple of chances in the 2nd half.
I made the mistake of trying to have a reasonable conversation with Christinaa once... she just kept baiting and when I eventually snapped, she didn't like it much. I wouldn't bother mate
Off the top of my head, Chelsea and Southampton both outplayed you badly and you still won so yeah there’s that. I haven’t followed every Liverpool game for the last 12 months or however long as that’s a pretty depressing thing to do as a member of Uniteds grim but loyal but I’m sure there are other occasions. Ourselves too.
The thing though is when teams got a result against City they tend to sit back and defend deep not creating much.
Newcastle just defended deep and didn't allow City that many great chances. Although once behind they attacked more and got the goals within 10 minutes both times.
That has more to do with poor defending from City than luck in my opinion. De Bruynes goal was brilliant and Shelveys too. These things can happen if you allow players too much space/time even outside the box.
Liverpool has had a lot of luck with VAR and stuff like that. Although they defend much better once ahead.
Granted both us and Spurs could have scored against them, but they often make it harder for the opponents than City.
I don't really think City deserves many more points. Liverpool has got more than expected obviously, but once behind they often comes back in games too.
Just checked the stats on both games (Southampton & Chelsea). Against the Saints we had 6 shots on target to their 3, & 3 on target against Chelsea whereas they had 2. What's important though is the fact we were 2-0 up in both games, so that kind of changes the perspective somewhat because the losing side generally works harder in trying to get something from the game, especially when they're playing at home. I think it's that perspective that a lot of people actually see which helps form their their 'lucky Liverpool' view. Danny Ings missed a sitter late on against us, but we missed a couple of good chances to go 3 up prior to that. I can't recall a single game where the opposition have had us under the cosh for most of the match & we've stolen a draw or a victory.
Sheff United were the better side as well.
Thats what makes them so impressive, they dont shut teams down and they still dominate like this.
Thats what makes them so impressive, they dont shut teams down and they still dominate like this.
The difference was the quality. Liverpool when on top were really amazing and should have buried the game but after the 65th min mark we pegged them back and we had 81% possession during that 15-20 min period. I still think City on their day are more unplayable and more fun to watch.
How were they the better side with just 29% possession & 2 shots on target to our 4 ? They worked their socks off & made it very difficult for us, but again we should have gone in front well before Henderson's mistake. They too also missed a great chance to score near the end though.
Nobody is saying “lucky Liverpool” but to claim you’ve been the better side and deserved to win EVERY game is bonkers.
My Liverpool supporting mate alwyas had a saying that “champions find a way to win” which is probably the best way to put how I feel - it’s a mental thing and a lot comes from having a manager and players that have tremendous belief in their own ability.
So this is like an insight into how strong pool have been mentally, and such - even in games they’ve not been at their best they’ve found wins.
But IIRC Liverpool dominated tons of games even in their first season under Klopp and didn’t always win and even lost some of those games - that for me is the difference, I remember pool losing and having like 30 shots on goal - now it’s that calmness and belief you are GOING to score and even if you’re a goal down that belief that you’re still gonna win that’s huge
Plenty of games Liverpool haven’t been great in that I’ve seen but
One shot on goal wasnt it? And it was that..
Possession means nothing. You go through large periods of the game making nothing passes around the back.
Its a lot of stat padding, nothing football
Just had a look at the xG table has this ever happened?
Before any Liverpool fans jump on this and decry statistics poisoning the game...
I think this raises valid questions about what the xG paradigm is capturing. Is Liverpool outperforming xG by 17 points an indictment of the model's shortcomings (in not capturing what goes on between the boxes) or are Liverpool certain to fall back to earth soon? I'm a Bayesian at heart so I lean towards the bolded, plus it's arrogant to assume a model is perfect. The question is how much of the discrepancy is driven by noise/variation that we can expect to revert to the mean, vs a dynamic that math has not been able to capture/translate yet? And what exactly is that dynamic that results in 17 points above what chances conceded/created would predict?
The mentality explanation only goes so far (you have to be a Liverpool fan to think that only players on this team have exceptional mentality). City displayed exceptional mentality last season but didn't outperform their xG this way.
has this ever happened?Before any Liverpool fans jump on this and decry statistics poisoning the game...
I think this raises valid questions about what the xG paradigm is capturing. Is Liverpool outperforming xG by 17 points an indictment of the model's shortcomings (in not capturing what goes on between the boxes) or are Liverpool certain to fall back to earth soon? I'm a Bayesian at heart so I lean towards the bolded, plus it's arrogant to assume a model is perfect. The question is how much of the discrepancy is driven by noise/variation that we can expect to revert to the mean, vs a dynamic that math has not been able to capture/translate yet? And what exactly is that dynamic that results in 17 points above what chances conceded/created would predict?
The mentality explanation only goes so far (you have to be a Liverpool fan to think that only players on this team have exceptional mentality). City displayed exceptional mentality last season but didn't outperform their xG this way.