Jude Bellingham | Signed for Madrid

[Remember the geese]

Not really. It is incredibly rare for a player at 17 to be able to do what Bellingham did at that age. Its really not a question of opportunity, its a question of quality and maturity. The jump from youth level to first team level, especially at a bigger club, is immense. Clubs aren't stupid and they know their players better than anybody. If the youth ranks were full of players who could play like Jude Bellingham if given an opportunity, you'd see a lot more 17 and 18 year old players starting for first division clubs week in and week out.

One of the biggest constants in football is every fanbase completely overrating their academy players and their chances of becoming top level professionals.

Yeah of course. To be playing at such a young age, you need talent as well as physical and mental maturity. However, it is a lot easier to be given an opportunity at a Championship club. Obviously. In that respect this is an advantage that Bellingham had over Mainoo and others who come through at top 6 clubs. I certainly don't believe that clubs are "full" of players who can play like Bellingham if given the opportunity. However, it is my belief that Mainoo is perfectly capable of playing in the Championship right now and even getting games for Dortmund.

Fans do overrate academy players, but at the same time, occasionally it is obvious that some players are genuinely quite special. The one thing that the casual observer struggles to judge however, is the mentality and attitude of a player.

 

[Rozay]

Gerrard had an amazing career that Bellingham is unlikely to match but he wasn't really a standout youth player, never making an England youth international team and not making much of an impression in his first season at Liverpool at 18 either. I think its incredibly unlikely that he would have been able to do what Bellingham did at 16 or 17.

Look at Hannibal right now. He seems to be having a promising loan spell but he is hardly dominating the Championship at 19, to expect him to have been able to go to BvB and be a regular starter and shining in CL knockout rounds at 17 is crazy given what we have seen from him.

None of this is to say that in the long run Bellingham is guaranteed to have a better career than Mejbri, Mainoo, or any other top prospect from another club. But very few players could have done what Bellingham did at 17.

It’s also incredibly unlikely that Bellingham would have been a Liverpool regular at 16.

And ‘what Bellingham has done’ has been massively overstated. He’s largely getting credit for simply being both young and playing football. Hannibal could certainly have played for Dortmund at 17 if the requirement was not for him to be particularly special. Bellingham has clearly gone up a level this season, x amount of pro games later, but people also need to not speak as if the Bellingham from this season is what was running around in the Championship at 16, or even in the Bundesliga at first. He wasn’t ‘dominating’ the Championship. That is literally the whole point of Dortmund. You can go there and play and get away with not being amazing all the time, or amazing at first. That’s the appeal. Again, with such a mandate, Hannibal could have played there if only required to be young and promising. Every good moment he had would have drawn praise, and the rest mitigated by age. I would expect him to be in and around where Bellingham is now after 2 full seasons too. I’d be surprised if Dortmund played Bellingham as much even if he was from their own academy. He was always a cow for them to fatten up and sell. Most talented kids don’t get that much football invested in them because there is literally no need to in most cases. Time can be taken.

Bellingham was an England youth international, and highly promising I don’t deny. But there are several of those. Many are at top clubs, and will take a more organic route. At 16, I don’t think he was necessarily more highly rated than Hannibal. Only one was at Birmingham City and the other was at Monaco/Manchester United. What we saw from Bellingham at 16 at Birmingham would not have got him in the United first XI every week. Maybe at about 18 or 19, but he has in the right place at the right time so far his whole career, which has been hugely beneficial, but it is not normal for even the most special of talents to be given the opportunities he has. Again, there’s literally no rush.

 

[Stacks]

@Annihilate Now! @Judas @Acquire Me @Real Name

This is it, this is where I am camping and setting my stall out for next summer, getting in early. THIS would be THE signing. Muppet juices flowing already and getting giddy thinking about that midfield, Casemiro - Bellingham - Eriksen/Bruno. Oh my days

that wouldn't scare me if I was opposition.

 

[Chief123]

A lot of rumours circulating on Man City forum that an insider on there who is regarded as a trusted source has said Bellingham has said “yes” to Man City move. No idea how reliable!

So it looks like it’s quite a solid source on their forum. He confirmed Haaland was going to city back in February. Looking at his posts he seems to be well informed on the inside.

Oh well, city to win the league for the next 5 years at least then.

 

[RedStarUnited]

Let's go spend 100 million on a player, to replace a player that don't need replacing. Thank God some of our fans aren't involved in the decision making at United.

too much FM. Players start decline at 28 and get old yeller'd beyond 30

Nothing to do with his age by the way. The guy just isnt worth keeping around in the long run for me.

Theres a thread in the United forum titled 'We will never win the league with Bruno starting' or something similar and I fully agree.

 

[Chief123]

He is the perfect Bruno replacement. If we are serious thats what we should do.

He wouldn’t be the Bruno replacement. He’d be another option so we don’t have to play Eriksen and Bruno every single match.

 

[Rozay]

He wouldn’t be the Bruno replacement. He’d be another option so we don’t have to play Eriksen and Bruno every single match.

I imagine he’s suggesting we move from playing a 10 to a double 8. He’s clearly not like Bruno in profile.

 

[Powderfinger]

It’s also incredibly unlikely that Bellingham would have been a Liverpool regular at 16.

And ‘what Bellingham has done’ has been massively overstated. He’s largely getting credit for simply being both young and playing football. Hannibal could certainly have played for Dortmund at 17 if the requirement was not for him to be particularly special. Bellingham has clearly gone up a level this season, x amount of pro games later, but people also need to not speak as if the Bellingham from this season is what was running around in the Championship at 16, or even in the Bundesliga at first. He wasn’t ‘dominating’ the Championship. That is literally the whole point of Dortmund. You can go there and play and get away with not being amazing all the time, or amazing at first. That’s the appeal. Again, with such a mandate, Hannibal could have played there if only required to be young and promising. Every good moment he had would have drawn praise, and the rest mitigated by age. I would expect him to be in and around where Bellingham is now after 2 full seasons too. I’d be surprised if Dortmund played Bellingham as much even if he was from their own academy. He was always a cow for them to fatten up and sell. Most talented kids don’t get that much football invested in them because there is literally no need to in most cases. Time can be taken.

Dortmund is trying to win matches like everybody else. Many highly rated youth players have moved to BvB in their teens - Wiegl, Isak, Merino, Sergio Gomez, Reinier, Reyna, etc - and very few have made the kind of impression that Bellingham has. Among players who weren't already established in first team football elsewhere and came to Dortmund on substantial fees (like Haaland and Dembele), only Sancho really had the same kind of stratospheric rise after moving to BvB and getting integrated, with Pulisic maybe an intermediate case. Its not like you just get a free pass into the first team and eventual superstardom just because you are young and promising.

Hannibal is turning 20 in a couple months and not even starting regularly in the Championship, much less dominating the level. Claiming that he would be on the same trajectory as Bellingham if he had only moved to BvB at 16 is ridiculous.

 

[Remember the geese]

Claiming that he would be on the same trajectory as Bellingham if he had only moved to BvB at 16 is ridiculous.

This is one of those things that is very easy to say after the event. Hannibal at 16 was just as talented as Bellingham. If not more so. No guarantee of anything obviously, but there's every chance he could have developed a lot quicker at Dortmund.

 

[Powderfinger]

This is one of those things that is very easy to say after the event. Hannibal at 16 was just as talented as Bellingham. If not more so. No guarantee of anything obviously, but there's every chance he could have developed a lot quicker at Dortmund.

It's easy to say after the event, because the event matters precisely because it is so unlikely.

To say Hannibal had every chance to do the same thing as Bellingham is like watching somebody flip a coin, get seven heads in a row, and saying "I too have a coin, it is no different than that other guy's coin, so I too would have been fairly likely to get seven heads in a row if I had been flipping my coin." Good luck with that.

 

[Rozay]

Dortmund is trying to win matches like everybody else. Many highly rated youth players have moved to BvB in their teens - Wiegl, Isak, Merino, Sergio Gomez, Reinier, Reyna, etc - and very few have made the kind of impression that Bellingham has. Among players who weren't already established in first team football elsewhere (like Haaland and Dembele), only Sancho really had the same kind of stratospheric rise after moving to BvB and getting integrated, with Pulisic maybe an intermediate case. Its not like you just get a free pass into the first team and eventual superstardom just because you are young and promising.

Hannibal is turning 20 in a couple months and not even starting regularly in the Championship, much less dominating the level. Claiming that he would be on the same trajectory as Bellingham if he had only moved to BvB at 16 is ridiculous.

Dortmund are trying to operate a business model, not simply 'trying to win matches'. And certainly not in the way everyone else is doing it, otherwise they simply wouldn't play inconsistent 17 year olds every week in their first XI. On the two notable occasions they have - they happened to be two 17 year olds that they managed to sign ahead of interest from wealth PL clubs (I wonder why), who from the very first day were assets to be developed and sold at a profit.

Hannibal was rated in the top two talents in France at 16, and cost United £10m. The idea of how much we would eventually sell Hannibal for was never our motivation. He'd only have been sold in the event of failure, whereas at Dortmund - he'd have been sold in the event of success. If they had managed to sign a promising 16 year old ahead of United for £10m, it would have almost certainly been on the proviso of them 'cheating' and promising him regular football which would not have been promised at United (or Arsenal, or Liverpool, or City, or Real) - but would have at Dortmund. It always is.

Bellingham was nothing special in his early time at Dortmund. But he was a £25m outlay, a project that was always supposed to yield high return. He was always going to be allowed to play through his mistakes and improve himself at an age he simply would not have been allowed to do so at a proper top club. That is because those clubs are not in the business of trying to flip players, they ACTUALLY just want to win games. A 16/17 year old Bellingham obviously wasn't what Dortmund simply decided was their best means of winning football matches.

Hannibal is playing regularly enough, and is also on loan at Birmingham and they stand to make no financial gain from him. He also didn't grow up there and would have a period of adjustment as a result, Bellingham had been at Birmingham his whole life. Hannibal is also a full international. I maintain, the 16 year old version of both players doesn't have some gulf in class. Monaco and United are firstly just very different propositions to Birmingham City, and even then - Birmingham could have easily found a 25 year old player who was not that special to give them what Bellingham gave them in midfield at 16. There was obviously more to his game time than him simply just being a top class midfielder.

Paul Pogba was a far more talented young midfielder than Bellingham for my money. Yet he obviously couldn't get in our team at 16. If Dortmund had beaten United, Real, Barcelona etc to sign him - he'd have undoubtedly played a lot more a lot sooner. Otherwise he'd have just joined Real Madrid in the first place! I know Endrick is not allowed to leave Brazil until 18, but if he could leave tomorrow, there's just as much chance he'd join a Salzburg or something instead of Real, and there is a reason for that. Sesko just turned down United to go to Leipzig - likely with a view to ending up at United! (or similar). Bellingham's parents mapped out his career perfectly, so perfectly that people seem to think he's the best teenager in the game or something. As Pep said about him, 'what a kid needs is to play, and he wouldn't have gotten that at a top 6 PL club'

 

[Judas]

How sad would it be for the PL if he goes to City all those years laughing at Germany and look what we're stuck with, but even worse.

 

[TheReligion]

Dortmund is trying to win matches like everybody else. Many highly rated youth players have moved to BvB in their teens - Wiegl, Isak, Merino, Sergio Gomez, Reinier, Reyna, etc - and very few have made the kind of impression that Bellingham has. Among players who weren't already established in first team football elsewhere and came to Dortmund on substantial fees (like Haaland and Dembele), only Sancho really had the same kind of stratospheric rise after moving to BvB and getting integrated, with Pulisic maybe an intermediate case. Its not like you just get a free pass into the first team and eventual superstardom just because you are young and promising.

Hannibal is turning 20 in a couple months and not even starting regularly in the Championship, much less dominating the level. Claiming that he would be on the same trajectory as Bellingham if he had only moved to BvB at 16 is ridiculous.

Erm Hannibal is starting regularly and he’s actually doing rather well…

 

[Remember the geese]

It's easy to say after the event, because the event matters precisely because it is so unlikely.

To say Hannibal had every chance to do the same thing as Bellingham is like watching somebody flip a coin, get seven heads in a row, and saying "I too have a coin, it is no different than that other guy's coin, so I too would have been fairly likely to get seven heads in a row if I had been flipping my coin." Good luck with that.

Not really. If Dortmund were to have beaten United to Hannibal's signature and paid the equivalent of the £10m that we did, then it would have come with some sort of guarantee of gametime. Bellingham was allowed the time and freedom to play and make mistakes. Hannibal would be have been afforded exactly the same thing. There isn't the same level of pressure there as at United. It's a profit game.

 

[Powderfinger]

Dortmund are trying to operate a business model, not simply 'trying to win matches'. And certainly not in the way everyone else is doing it, otherwise they simply wouldn't play inconsistent 17 year olds every week in their first XI. On the two notable occasions they have - they happened to be two 17 year olds that they managed to sign ahead of interest from wealth PL clubs (I wonder why), who from the very first day were assets to be developed and sold at a profit.

Hannibal was rated in the top two talents in France at 16, and cost United £10m. The idea of how much we would eventually sell Hannibal for was never our motivation. He'd only have been sold in the event of failure, whereas at Dortmund - he'd have been sold in the event of success. If they had managed to sign a promising 16 year old ahead of United for £10m, it would have almost certainly been on the proviso of them 'cheating' and promising him regular football which would not have been promised at United (or Arsenal, or Liverpool, or City, or Real) - but would have at Dortmund. It always is.

Bellingham was nothing special in his early time at Dortmund. But he was a £25m outlay, a project that was always supposed to yield high return. He was always going to be allowed to play through his mistakes and improve himself at an age he simply would not have been allowed to do so at a proper top club. That is because those clubs are not in the business of trying to flip players, they ACTUALLY just want to win games. A 16/17 year old Bellingham obviously wasn't what Dortmund simply decided was their best means of winning football matches.

Hannibal is playing regularly enough, and is also on loan at Birmingham and they stand to make no financial gain from him. He also didn't grow up there and would have a period of adjustment as a result, Bellingham had been at Birmingham his whole life. Hannibal is also a full international. I maintain, the 16 year old version of both players doesn't have some gulf in class. Monaco and United are firstly just very different propositions to Birmingham City, and even then - Birmingham could have easily found a 25 year old player who was not that special to give them what Bellingham gave them in midfield at 16. There was obviously more to his game time than him simply just being a top class midfielder.

Paul Pogba was a far more talented young midfielder than Bellingham for my money. Yet he obviously couldn't get in our team at 16. If Dortmund had beaten United, Real, Barcelona etc to sign him - he'd have undoubtedly played a lot more a lot sooner. Otherwise he'd have just joined Real Madrid in the first place!

Nobody is claiming that you don't get more chances as a young player at BvB than at Manchester United. But you're not going to play, especially in the CL, if you're badly dragging down the side. And of the many talented academy type teenage players they have brought in over the years, only Sancho has really succeeded in his leap into the first team to the degree that Bellingham has.

Whether Hannibal was as highly rated as Bellingham at 16 is besides the point. The jump from youth football to regular first team football for a top club (whether BvB or United) is a massive one, most top youth players don't make it all and very few have ever done it on the timetable that Bellingham did. As I said in the post above, Bellingham flipped seven heads in a row, starting CL knockout matches at 17 and now regularly the best player on the pitch by 19. Just because Hannibal started with a similar coin doesn't mean he was likely to do the same.

 

[Rozay]

Nobody is claiming that you don't get more chances as a young player at BvB than at Manchester United. But you're not going to play, especially in the CL, if you're badly dragging down the side. And of the many talented academy type teenage players they have brought in over the years, only Sancho has really succeeded in his leap into the first team to the degree that Bellingham has.

Whether Hannibal was as highly rated as Bellingham at 16 is besides the point. The jump from youth football to regular first team football for a top club (whether BvB or United) is a massive one, most top youth players don't make it all and very few have ever done it on the timetable that Bellingham did. As I said in the post above, Bellingham flipped seven heads in a row, starting CL knockout matches at 17 and now regularly the best player on the pitch by 19. Just because Hannibal started with a similar coin doesn't mean he was likely to do the same.

That is fair, but the reason Bellingham was given the opportunity to do so and Hannibal not is not because everyone thought he was better, is my own point. Bellingham has held his own, and eventually excelled, credit to him. But if Dortmund signed Hannibal ahead of United, he’d almost certainly been given the same chance, as that would have been the sole basis of making the choice in the first place, as it was with Bellingham. So the comparison of Bellingham doing this or that at 16/17/18 is an unfair one - several great players, better than Bellingham, will continue to come through at various top clubs who did not get the opportunity he got. It isn’t because he was simply so special in and of itself.

 

[Powderfinger]

That is fair, but the reason Bellingham was given the opportunity to do so and Hannibal not is not because everyone thought he was better, is my own point. Bellingham has held his own, and eventually excelled, credit to him. But if Dortmund signed Hannibal ahead of United, he’d almost certainly been given the same chance, as that would have been the sole basis of making the choice in the first place, as it was with Bellingham. So the comparison of Bellingham doing this or that at 16/17/18 is an unfair one - several great players, better than Bellingham, will continue to come through at various top clubs who did not get the opportunity he got. It isn’t because he was simply so special in and of itself.

Yup, I agree with all that. I think we're largely in agreement just coming at this from different angles.

 

[Chief123]

How sad would it be for the PL if he goes to City all those years laughing at Germany and look what we're stuck with, but even worse.

Tbh looks like his destination is City unfortunately. The others on blue moon didn’t even question his reliability so I’m guessing he’s a very good source.

@padr81 may be able to confirm.

 

[Rojow]

Sancho 2.0 and probably a system player.

 

[Remember the geese]

Tbh looks like his destination is City unfortunately. The others on blue moon didn’t even question his reliability so I’m guessing he’s a very good source.

@padr81 may be able to confirm.

It's hardly the end of the world. He's just one player. City have signed far better players than him.

 

[ForeverRed1]

How sad would it be for the PL if he goes to City all those years laughing at Germany and look what we're stuck with, but even worse.

It’s 100% going to happen aswell. They will pay what Dortmund want, offer him and his agents shed loads of cash and guarantee him trophies playing under pep alongside haaland, foden, Grealish etc.. it’s a no brainer.

 

[Rozay]

Who gives a feck if he goes to City anyway?

 

[2 man midfield]

How many times do we have to get burned by those German snake oil salesmen before we realise?

 

[Deleted 112447]

I don't get the mega fascination with him. He is good but a potential at this point and little else. We would be stupid to blow our budget on him while we have Eriksen and are in such a need for a striker, RB and potentially a CD. I would take Tielemans on a free any day while spending on the striker.

 

[Nero]

Football forum ITKs don’t exist.

 

[sleepehead]

I think the biggest difference between Hannibal and Bellingham is attitude. Bellingham has been way more mature and has acted even as a good leader since he's been in Birmingham. Hannibal still makes rash and hotheaded decisions that get him in trouble. Even now with how well Hannibal has been doing we still give him shit for his decisions on the pitch. It's not for the lack of talent, it's the mentality that makes Bellingham so rare at 19

 

[Chief123]

I see the “Didn’t want him anyway” posts are starting to pop off.

 

[Irrational.]

I can see PED making him City’s only transfer target next summer and succeeding.

 

[Gentleman Jim]

Tbh looks like his destination is City unfortunately. The others on blue moon didn’t even question his reliability so I’m guessing he’s a very good source.

@padr81 may be able to confirm.

Tolmie is BM's best source.
He's rarely wrong and has been calling this for months

 

[Beaucoup]

A high energy, declining (statistically) player.Yes, lets keep him until he cant run and we have to pay him to leave.

he’s got a few years in him yet.

 

[Rozay]

I think the biggest difference between Hannibal and Bellingham is attitude. Bellingham has been way more mature and has acted even as a good leader since he's been in Birmingham. Hannibal still makes rash and hotheaded decisions that get him in trouble. Even now with how well Hannibal has been doing we still give him shit for his decisions on the pitch. It's not for the lack of talent, it's the mentality that makes Bellingham so rare at 19

Bellingham’s attitude has been questioned plenty.

I’d say the biggest difference between them is the teams they have represented, both at club and international level.

 

[Chief123]

Tolmie is BM's best source.
He's rarely wrong and has been calling this for months

Fair enough. Obviously anything can happen between now and then but I guess it’s highly likely he ends up at City.

 

[andersj]

Dortmund are trying to operate a business model, not simply 'trying to win matches'. And certainly not in the way everyone else is doing it, otherwise they simply wouldn't play inconsistent 17 year olds every week in their first XI. On the two notable occasions they have - they happened to be two 17 year olds that they managed to sign ahead of interest from wealth PL clubs (I wonder why), who from the very first day were assets to be developed and sold at a profit.

Hannibal was rated in the top two talents in France at 16, and cost United £10m. The idea of how much we would eventually sell Hannibal for was never our motivation. He'd only have been sold in the event of failure, whereas at Dortmund - he'd have been sold in the event of success. If they had managed to sign a promising 16 year old ahead of United for £10m, it would have almost certainly been on the proviso of them 'cheating' and promising him regular football which would not have been promised at United (or Arsenal, or Liverpool, or City, or Real) - but would have at Dortmund. It always is.

Bellingham was nothing special in his early time at Dortmund. But he was a £25m outlay, a project that was always supposed to yield high return. He was always going to be allowed to play through his mistakes and improve himself at an age he simply would not have been allowed to do so at a proper top club. That is because those clubs are not in the business of trying to flip players, they ACTUALLY just want to win games. A 16/17 year old Bellingham obviously wasn't what Dortmund simply decided was their best means of winning football matches.

Hannibal is playing regularly enough, and is also on loan at Birmingham and they stand to make no financial gain from him. He also didn't grow up there and would have a period of adjustment as a result, Bellingham had been at Birmingham his whole life. Hannibal is also a full international. I maintain, the 16 year old version of both players doesn't have some gulf in class. Monaco and United are firstly just very different propositions to Birmingham City, and even then - Birmingham could have easily found a 25 year old player who was not that special to give them what Bellingham gave them in midfield at 16. There was obviously more to his game time than him simply just being a top class midfielder.

Paul Pogba was a far more talented young midfielder than Bellingham for my money. Yet he obviously couldn't get in our team at 16. If Dortmund had beaten United, Real, Barcelona etc to sign him - he'd have undoubtedly played a lot more a lot sooner. Otherwise he'd have just joined Real Madrid in the first place! I know Endrick is not allowed to leave Brazil until 18, but if he could leave tomorrow, there's just as much chance he'd join a Salzburg or something instead of Real, and there is a reason for that. Sesko just turned down United to go to Leipzig - likely with a view to ending up at United! (or similar). Bellingham's parents mapped out his career perfectly, so perfectly that people seem to think he's the best teenager in the game or something. As Pep said about him, 'what a kid needs is to play, and he wouldn't have gotten that at a top 6 PL club'

You underestimate the importance of maturity and tactical nouse. In Bellinghams case he was, already when at Bimingham, very, very good as more of a DM. I saw every game of Pogba at 16, 17 and 18 and it was always an issue for him. Even at acadamy level, never mind playing with grown ups.

Hannibal less so, but never close to Bellingham. That is the major difference between them. Not club choice.

 

[Remember the geese]

You underestimate the importance of maturity and tactical nouse. In Bellinghams case he was, already when at Bimingham, very, very good as more of a DM. I saw every game of Pogba at 16, 17 and 18 and it was always an issue for him. Even at acadamy level, never mind playing with grown ups.

Hannibal less so, but never close to Bellingham. That is the major difference between them. Not club choice.

I think that's just because Bellingham is a different type of player to Pogba. Pogba was a more of a free spirit. More creative and a bigger talent.

 

[Boavista]

Dortmund are trying to operate a business model, not simply 'trying to win matches'. And certainly not in the way everyone else is doing it, otherwise they simply wouldn't play inconsistent 17 year olds every week in their first XI. On the two notable occasions they have - they happened to be two 17 year olds that they managed to sign ahead of interest from wealth PL clubs (I wonder why), who from the very first day were assets to be developed and sold at a profit.

Hannibal was rated in the top two talents in France at 16, and cost United £10m. The idea of how much we would eventually sell Hannibal for was never our motivation. He'd only have been sold in the event of failure, whereas at Dortmund - he'd have been sold in the event of success. If they had managed to sign a promising 16 year old ahead of United for £10m, it would have almost certainly been on the proviso of them 'cheating' and promising him regular football which would not have been promised at United (or Arsenal, or Liverpool, or City, or Real) - but would have at Dortmund. It always is.

Bellingham was nothing special in his early time at Dortmund. But he was a £25m outlay, a project that was always supposed to yield high return. He was always going to be allowed to play through his mistakes and improve himself at an age he simply would not have been allowed to do so at a proper top club. That is because those clubs are not in the business of trying to flip players, they ACTUALLY just want to win games. A 16/17 year old Bellingham obviously wasn't what Dortmund simply decided was their best means of winning football matches.

Hannibal is playing regularly enough, and is also on loan at Birmingham and they stand to make no financial gain from him. He also didn't grow up there and would have a period of adjustment as a result, Bellingham had been at Birmingham his whole life. Hannibal is also a full international. I maintain, the 16 year old version of both players doesn't have some gulf in class. Monaco and United are firstly just very different propositions to Birmingham City, and even then - Birmingham could have easily found a 25 year old player who was not that special to give them what Bellingham gave them in midfield at 16. There was obviously more to his game time than him simply just being a top class midfielder.

Paul Pogba was a far more talented young midfielder than Bellingham for my money. Yet he obviously couldn't get in our team at 16. If Dortmund had beaten United, Real, Barcelona etc to sign him - he'd have undoubtedly played a lot more a lot sooner. Otherwise he'd have just joined Real Madrid in the first place! I know Endrick is not allowed to leave Brazil until 18, but if he could leave tomorrow, there's just as much chance he'd join a Salzburg or something instead of Real, and there is a reason for that. Sesko just turned down United to go to Leipzig - likely with a view to ending up at United! (or similar). Bellingham's parents mapped out his career perfectly, so perfectly that people seem to think he's the best teenager in the game or something. As Pep said about him, 'what a kid needs is to play, and he wouldn't have gotten that at a top 6 PL club'

I don't disagree with a lot of your points and selling players is obviously a big part of Dortmund's model, but I think your analysis here leans on that argument a little too heavily. While Bellingham's potential future value obviously will have been a factor in signing him, the idea that he was given more minutes to maximise his value at the (implied) expense of trying to maximise the club's season success almost paints a bit of a caricature of how people on here think the the club operates.

I agree that Bellingham's first season wasn't that extraordinarily special if you don't take his age into consideration. And to some extent I also think it's a possibility that the heights he could reach might be overhyped simply due to the fact that he's already so good at such a young age, as it's not out of the question that he's closer to his potential peak than other players his age, as opposed to his ceiling being astronomically high. Not saying I don't rate him, quite the opposite. I think he's already a fantastic player with room to improve yet, but that doesn't mean he'll become the greatest midfielder ever, to put it hyperbolically.

However, I don't think Bellingham got so many minutes straight away in his first season because he was prioritised over other players to speed up his development. Dortmund just didn't have many better options available that season, but not for lack of trying to have a deeper squad with more options. While he obviously was signed with the intention of being an immediate. option, part of the reason was simply injuries and other players underperforming or declining. In theory they had plenty of options in midfield with Witsel, Dahoud, Delaney, Can, or even Brandt or Reus depending on the formation. Witsel was still the first name in midfield until his injury halfway through Dahoud and Brandt on the other hand were pretty disappointing that season. Delaney never fully recovered his form after his injury as hoped, and Can was frequently needed in defence due to lack of defenders, especially when playing a back three. Also Can turned out to be a bit underwhelming, which might not surprise some but he was still an expensive signing for them and came with higher expectations.

So yeah, Bellingham impressed right away considering his age, but he didn't have to dazzle, given form and injuries of his competition. But I wouldn't say it was planned for him to face so little competition, or that he played because flipping him for profit takes precedence over their team's ambitions. They thought they had a good team together, but that's not how it turned out. And for all this talk of Dortmund's business model being about selling players, and Bellingham's inevitable move sooner or later, I think people misunderstand that model to mean they wouldn't love hang to hang on to him if that's what he wanted for whatever reason. It's not going to happen because clearly Dortmund can't match other clubs' contract offers or ambitions, but pretty sure they'd love nothing more. After all even being a selling club doesn't mean you have to sell your most valuable player, when there are other players they could sell to generate some cash if need be. But that's a pipe dream I suppose

 

[Isotope]

I'd rather have FdJ than Bellingham. FdJ's type is pretty rare, and exactly what EtH wants to complete his team.

 

[Rozay]

You underestimate the importance of maturity and tactical nouse. In Bellinghams case he was, already when at Bimingham, very, very good as more of a DM. I saw every game of Pogba at 16, 17 and 18 and it was always an issue for him. Even at acadamy level, never mind playing with grown ups.

Hannibal less so, but never close to Bellingham. That is the major difference between them. Not club choice.

But Pogba never was a DM anyway, and as a senior pro, still isn’t one. By similar token, Hannibal has excelled as an 8, 10 and 11.

 

[cyberman]

I just don’t see what he adds when elite specialists play every position better than he does

 

[Rozay]

I don't disagree with a lot of your points and selling players is obviously a big part of Dortmund's model, but I think your analysis here leans on that argument a little too heavily. While Bellingham's potential future value obviously will have been a factor in signing him, the idea that he was given more minutes to maximise his value at the (implied) expense of trying to maximise the club's season success almost paints a bit of a caricature of how people on here think the the club operates.

I agree that Bellingham's first season wasn't that extraordinarily special if you don't take his age into consideration. And to some extent I also think it's a possibility that the heights he could reach might be overhyped simply due to the fact that he's already so good at such a young age, as it's not out of the question that he's closer to his potential peak than other players his age, as opposed to his ceiling being astronomically high. Not saying I don't rate him, quite the opposite. I think he's already a fantastic player with room to improve yet, but that doesn't mean he'll become the greatest midfielder ever, to put it hyperbolically.

However, I don't think Bellingham got so many minutes straight away in his first season because he was prioritised over other players to speed up his development. Dortmund just didn't have many better options available that season, but not for lack of trying to have a deeper squad with more options. While he obviously was signed with the intention of being an immediate. option, part of the reason was simply injuries and other players underperforming or declining. In theory they had plenty of options in midfield with Witsel, Dahoud, Delaney, Can, or even Brandt or Reus depending on the formation. Witsel was still the first name in midfield until his injury halfway through Dahoud and Brandt on the other hand were pretty disappointing that season. Delaney never fully recovered his form after his injury as hoped, and Can was frequently needed in defence due to lack of defenders, especially when playing a back three. Also Can turned out to be a bit underwhelming, which might not surprise some but he was still an expensive signing for them and came with higher expectations.

So yeah, Bellingham impressed right away considering his age, but he didn't have to dazzle, given form and injuries of his competition. But I wouldn't say it was planned for him to face so little competition, or that he played because flipping him for profit takes precedence over their team's ambitions. They thought they had a good team together, but that's not how it turned out. And for all this talk of Dortmund's business model being about selling players, and Bellingham's inevitable move sooner or later, I think people misunderstand that model to mean they wouldn't love hang to hang on to him if that's what he wanted for whatever reason. It's not going to happen because clearly Dortmund can't match other clubs' contract offers or ambitions, but pretty sure they'd love nothing more. After all even being a selling club doesn't mean you have to sell your most valuable player, when there are other players they could sell to generate some cash if need be. But that's a pipe dream I suppose

I don’t think he was simply given more minutes in order to maximise his value, I also think he was given them because it was THE key condition of Bellingham joining them in the first place. If the idea was for him to be in the second team and earn a place, maybe go on loan etc - he’d have just joined United. These pre-agreed minutes that Dortmund offer is what puts them in a unique position to sign Haaland, Sancho, Bellingham and the like in the first place. Dortmund can play ‘big club’ as much as they like - but they are simply not big enough to sign these players and develop them the more organic way. They HAVE to play them. No matter how good a 16 year old is, United will likely not go around promising they will be a regular if they join us

If Dortmund simply wanted a midfielder for their first team, they wouldn’t be looking for a 16 year old from the Championship. They prowl the English market in particular, because English clubs spend the most money, in the hope that they can provide the platform for players to develop who will then attract huge fees from England. Or in Dembele’s case - Spain. But they are seen as the ‘sensible’ choice for such players because they will get loads of minutes in an environment where they are frankly allowed to be a bit shit sometimes until they figure it out. Similarly at Birmingham. Bellingham was the golden goose. In pure footballing terms, they could have likely got I dunno, Mohamed Elneny on loan who would have done a better job for them. It’s likely that Bellingham was played because promises were made to him/his family long before in exchange for their commitment to the club.

Credit to him and his family, they have played a blinder with him. You can say similarly to Jadon Sancho - the only thing with him is that he is one move ahead and we can see that he has not been that amazing since his love. While at Dortmund, they hype was no less than Bellingham’s now. For me, at £100m+, he is well overpriced. The English machine is doing what it does, and is still enamoured with the novelty of a young English talent impressing at a big European club - but I’d take FDJ over him any day if given a choice personally.

I say all this to say, I think there are similarly talented midfielders to Bellingham who can also grow into top players for top teams who haven’t got the trophy of having played regular footy at 16 simply because even most great players do not. I don’t think Bellingham played those minutes because he was necessarily a never seen before talent, but mainly because of the careful engineering of his career by his father that has ensured senior football was prioritised and that he was always placed in the right place at the right time to play games and grow his stock. Perhaps Hannibal’s people should have rejected United and instead held out for an Ajax move or similar, but not everyone does that. Bellingham is obviously talented, but the conditions of his career thus far have given him the perfect environment to develop and express them.

 

[Powderfinger]

I just don’t see what he adds when elite specialists play every position better than he does

A lot of teams don't want specialists as the 8 midfielders in a 4-3-3, they want an all rounder at one of those positions. Players who have the technical ability to play slick possession football, who can contribute in the final third, but also have the physical qualities to battle up and down the pitch against sides that will press you all day and try to beat you just by winning duels and second balls. Think about players like Henderson, Gundogan, or the current incarnation of Xhaka. Bellingham's potential - which he might not reach, but in theory - is to be the elite version of that kind of player.