It is the classic full court press by Mendes, Atletico and co to drive the price up.
If you look at all relevant factors -- i.e. what AtM paid for Joao Felix what 4 years ago is 100% irrelevant, if I am picking between two BMW X7 from 2020, I do not care one bit if one of the owners paid twice as much for his than the other, I take the one that fits me the best at the best price --
Joao Felix is at most a 50m player.
This is a problem for Joao Felix, because for the AtM board, we know its hard for them to take that kind of reputational loss. Making it apparent what a bad signing they made. This is a problem for Atletico Madrid, because they are in dire need for money. Hence, everyone is working overtime to drive the price up.
My point is just, this is all very very expected, i.e. these ridiculous reports. Fabrizio have been pumping his value for ages. Talking about how AtM would have to get a bid over 120m for him. Which at the time he said it, was extremely ridiculous. Its like Chelsea trying to spread rumors that Kepa will be sold, Potter doesn't trust him, but it will take 125m to get him. But Fabrizio is always more than willing to lend his hand to Mendes and co. Another thing is the Villa report. They are establishing alternatives. You don't want to pay what we wants, fine, Villa will. They can never get someone like Felix otherwise. They will take 80 of the 100m they got for Grealish and pay for Felix and Felix want to go there. Does Felix want to go to Villa? Risk another Simeone situation?
The timing is also perfect. If AtM does not sell Felix now -- the price is only going down. He isn't playing for AtM during the spring. When he is playing, he isn't playing well. Now they get a World Cup boost.
And ultimately, this will probably be effective. But who is getting him? I think it will be someone like Villa to be honest. I do not think they get any of the major clubs to ant up that kind of money. But it is hard to tell. If you are Arsenal, who would you rather take, Mudryk at what close to 60m or Felix at 90m?
Felix for 120m is of course completely out of the picture if you can get
Mykhailo Mudryk for 60m, not to mention on much lower wages. Or
Cody Gakpo for 55m, not to mention on much lower wages.
Christopher Nkunku for 60m.
This is what establish Joao Felix's value. Teams looking at their list, what do we need, what can we get, what will it cost -- and then choosing to go for the best alternative all things considered. Sooner or later, at the latest after the dust settles and names start being removed from that list, one or more clubs will go for Joao Felix and make bids for him. The highest offer AtM can obtain for Felix is what it is. Will someone given these conditions come to the conclusion, that yes, lets bid 120m for Felix? Of course not, never. I could see Villa going to like 75m. Think that is really really stretching it from their perspective. I could see a big club going to perhaps 75-80m.
We could get him for sure, wouldn't rule that out. Don't think its likely. Another thing -- this is probably something that gets done 31 January rather than 1 January. Very difficult situation. To some extent it also becomes a loan with option to buy vs a straight transaction. Is it better to take 70m from Villa today or to loan Felix to Arsenal or Manchester United or Chelsea with an option to buy for 100m? I think the loan option is too risky. Big risk that whomever gets him wouldn't use him, and then you stand there with an asset worth 40m on July 1.
From our POV, a cheaper purchase price with big potential add-ons if Felix performs is of course perfect.
But can those be made functional? We have all seen AtM manipulating add-ons vis-a-vis Barca with Griezman.